62 replies to this topic

[UTCdude23]

I find it interesting that for the first time in a while now, Central New York's population losses have stemmed and actually reversed in places like Syracuse and Utica.  Do you think that these areas are going to have any measureable growth over the next 5-10 years?

Rochester and Buffalo seem like they are still struggling, Buffalo mostly.  Any opinions?

[leets]

The losses will not stop until NYS understands that the state extends beyond Albany.  NYS gears itself to the NYC economy and that does not work in the rest of the state. NYS is in competition with more efficient states and its politicians have blinders on.

Edited by leets, 18 June 2005 - 10:10 AM.

[UTCdude23]

I agree w/ u on that.  The state govt. has apparently done its best to focus on NYC while letting upstate run into the ground.  Local officials can share the blame as well, look at Erie County, govt. for example.  Govt. is too large for NYS as it is.  It will hurt in the short term, but I remember reading a statistic that NYS govt. was 25% larger than other states per capita.  That kind of strain on a shrinking populace will only speed it up.  They need to shed alot of pork.  Cut jobs, consolidate services.  There are many municipalities that perform the same function as county governments.

[Recchia]

What kind of assets to upstate cities have to build on? Albany's been lucky (it's metro area atleast) being the capital of such a prosperous state, but what about Syracuse, Rochester and Buffalo?

[leets]

The affordability of realestate in upstate is a massive asset that is not recognized yet.  This excerpt is from the Buffalo News.

     Home  prices over the last decade have increased  two to three times faster than incomes in  places like L.A., San Diego, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach, according to a  new report by the Harvard think tank.

Here in Buffalo, it's just the opposite:  Our incomes over the last decade have  grown almost 30 percent faster than our  home prices, which makes our housing  more affordable and, combined with low  mortgage rates, is a big reason why home  sales this year are on a pace to top last  year's record high.

People in upstate have a lot of money in their pockets sicnce they are not scraping by with huge mrtgages.

Edited by leets, 19 June 2005 - 07:00 PM.

[jackson]

i think these cities are assests in themselves. They are places that are already built, and I should add built a lot better than the places we build today. Each of these cities have excellent access to transportation, as well as many distinct traditional neighborhoods clearly defined by natural boundaries and diverse ethnic makeup.
If you developed high-speed rail from new york city, you would bring a lot of the economic flow upstate. If the state extended its empire zone (business tax incentives) to the west and gave empire zone distinction specifically to old industrial cites in these cities and transform its transit policies to utilize the existing urban environments primarily for pedestrians cities would start to come alive. Just as importantly, the state needs to adopt a new policy to fund schools and ensure that education money is more evenly distributed throughout the different municipalities throughout these metropolitan areas to ensure that the standard of education is just as high in city schools as they are in the suburbs. Once a substantial amount of new economic development takes place within these cities, other economic opertunities open up for lower-income residents, which in turn results in the revitilization of inner-city neighborhoods and crime is, for the most part, forced out of the city. Also, once these urban municipalities expand their tax base, more resources can be directly allocated to education and police protection.
This all starts with providing more jobs and redeveloping vast space once used for manufacturing for new industry. Once you have that, the policies need to change on the state level on education and the appropiate mode for transportation needed in these traditional, pre-automobile cities.

[CNYsyr]

This article is very good. It reminds me how bad the 90s really were here

http://www.manhattan...able.cfm?id=463

[UTCdude23]

I would say this article is highly accurate in describing how state officials will turn a blind eye to the plight of upstate.  They'd rather highlight NYC and any tiny glimmers of hope in Upstate.  I do however think that the Upstate cities can help to save themselves.  After many years of slow gear-grinding, it looks like DestiNY USA is finally started to pick up steam in Syracuse. The Utica-Rome MSA is benefitting from this as well as the highly successful casino in Verona.  I see turning stone on TV all the time now for both boxing and Texas Hold'em poker games.

[leets]

These three threads I started are a good example of the assets of Buffalo NY
http://www.urbanplan...topic=12259&hl=
http://www.urbanplan...topic=12144&hl=
http://www.urbanplan...2636&hl=BUFFALO


Also this Business First article talks about how Buffalo's economy might just be performing quite well these days since growth in wages has been higher than the national average. http://buffalo.bizjo.../20/story1.html

The most recent jobs report also showed that Buffalo added 2500 new private sector jobs.  Though because of massive County cost cutting to ballance its budget net job gain was only 200.  Not a bad trade off though.  Western New York has counted on government jobs too long to make up for losses.  It is good see the balance tipping toward the private side

Edited by leets, 20 June 2005 - 08:51 AM.

[UTCdude23]

Leets, the first two links were broken for me   I totally agree w/ u about the trade/off.  Private jobs far outweigh public ones in terms of public good.  Now if only they could work out their city/county problems...

[leets]

UTCdude23, on Jun 20 2005, 09:51 AM, said:

Leets, the first two links were broken for me   I totally agree w/ u about the trade/off.  Private jobs far outweigh public ones in terms of public good.  Now if only they could work out their city/county problems...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The links should be fixed now

[UTCdude23]

Thanks, interesting photos!!  I especially like the one of Buffalo & Toronto @ night.  I wonder if they'll ever converge in the distant future...

[leets]

Toronto (and Canada) is the key to Buffalo's future.  They just don't realize it yet.

[Cotuit]

jackson, on Jun 19 2005, 10:32 PM, said:

If you developed high-speed rail from new york city, you would bring a lot of the economic flow upstate.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That's true, here in Providence we have high speed rail (well once they fix the damn Acela's) to New York City and the city and state are benefitting from that. There are a lot of people in New York looking for a less expensive alternative, that still provides them with an urban vitality. Providence and Pawtucket in Rhode Island are both selling themselves that way. We benefit not only from proximity to New York, but proximity to Boston as well. Buffalo has Toronto on the other side to cash in on, and if they can keep the ferry afloat, Rochester has the same going for it.

New York state is watching people and businesses leave New York City for cheaper pastures in nearby Connecticut, Rhode Island, and New Jersey, and off to the south and west, while there are perfectly good cities within the state that New Yorkers would be interested in moving to if the state would just give those cities a little push. Better for the state to spend some money to keep those people fleeing high prices in NYC in the state.

[UTCdude23]

Cotuit, on Jun 20 2005, 12:25 PM, said:

That's true, here in Providence we have high speed rail (well once they fix the damn Acela's) to New York City and the city and state are benefitting from that. There are a lot of people in New York looking for a less expensive alternative, that still provides them with an urban vitality. Providence and Pawtucket in Rhode Island are both selling themselves that way. We benefit not only from proximity to New York, but proximity to Boston as well. Buffalo has Toronto on the other side to cash in on, and if they can keep the ferry afloat, Rochester has the same going for it.

New York state is watching people and businesses leave New York City for cheaper pastures in nearby Connecticut, Rhode Island, and New Jersey, and off to the south and west, while there are perfectly good cities within the state that New Yorkers would be interested in moving to if the state would just give those cities a little push. Better for the state to spend some money to keep those people fleeing high prices in NYC in the state.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes I think that the key word is cheaper.  While there are perfectly suitable cities upstate, the costs are much less to move business to northern NJ or southern New England.  Thanks in part to outrageous amounts of govt, the state essentially is shooting itself in the foot.

[CNYsyr]

A good way to tell how much a metro is growing is by looking at how many new building permits it has each year.

Check these numbers out:

Metro Syracuse builds about 1,000 new homes a year, up from 500 in 1998
http://recenter.tamu...pm/sfm8160m.htm

Metro Toledo 2,000
http://recenter.tamu...pm/sfm8400m.htm

Metro Des Monies 4,500
http://recenter.tamu...pm/sfm2120m.htm

Metro Raleigh 16,000
http://recenter.tamu...pm/sfm6640m.htm

My point. Metro Syracuse is doing better than it did in the 90s, but no where near even as good as places like Des Monies or even Toledo. I put Raleigh in there to show what a booming metro looks like and because back in the 1970s, Metro Syracuse was on par with Metro Raleigh in terms of population size. Now Metro Raleigh is double the population of Metro Syracuse.

[jackson]

i dont think those are good examples, as those cities are much larger than syracuse.
if you want a good way to look at how a metro is changing in population, look no further than census figures. new home construction doesn't apply the same way to a place like syracuse because there are so many vacant housing units avaliable so why would people build new homes if there is already a fine housing stock for extremely inexpensive prices?
you say that syracuse is no where near these other cities, yet if toledo is over twice the size of syracuse to begin with, than your data shows that it is actually doing better than these other places.

Edited by jackson, 22 June 2005 - 04:59 PM.

[CNYsyr]

jackson, I'm talking metros, not cities.

Metro Syracuse is 735,000
http://recenter.tamu...popm/pm8160.htm

Metro Toledo is 619,000
http://recenter.tamu...popm/pm8400.htm

Metro Des Monies is only 476,000
http://recenter.tamu...popm/pm2120.htm

Check out Metro Raleigh in 1970, only 537,000
http://recenter.tamu...popm/pm6640.htm

Also about the inexpensive housing in the city of Syracuse. Why would a middle class professional family want to move to the city and live among WTA (white trash America), ghetto bangers and, bubba factory workers, put up with crime, noise and bad schools, when they could move to the suburbs and live among other middle class families with young kids going to good schools?

Therefore, my indicator for growth is suburban housing starts. It means that real families are moving into the area. Growth in downtown is another thing to look at since a lot of young professionals like living downtown.

I know this is a urban forum (like the other two or three on the internet- still can't find a forum that talks about metros, not just cities, thats a another topic- I digress) but I'm just trying to be realistic.

[monsoon]

CNYsyr, on Jun 22 2005, 11:35 PM, said:

I know this is a urban forum (like the other two or three on the internet- still can't find a forum that talks about metros, not just cities, thats a another topic- I digress) but I'm just trying to be realistic.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Actually UrbanPlanet is devoted to anything having to do with the built environment unlike other sites that are devoted to just skyscrapers or something similar.  If you look around you will see that we discuss Metro issues quite a bit.  Please feel free to bring up any discussion about Metro development.

[UTCdude23]

I think that with the return to city-living, the families will move back.  Granted, they wouldn't enjoy living with those demographics, but say, for instance, Syracuse's Armory square is developing hi-quality condominiums, if the vacancies are in parts of the city that are returning to vibrant areas, then the families will move back, or young couples.  That's a demographic that is seriously needed in Upstate.