356 replies to this topic

[Lady Celeste]

I guess what Aboutmetro is saying is:

If Columbus' population was down by X, then how many troops were deployed and how many new citzens moved to the metro. Did the number of troops deployed exceed the number of new citizens. That could be the case though. Georgia's second most numeric gainer added 7800+ people. If Columbus added the same amount or similar and there were 15000 troops deployed then it could skew the number. Did I make any sense? I guess I'm saying that Columbus could be growing at the same rate as other fast growing metros but the numbers will not reflect that because of the large troop deployment.    

How can one obtain the number of troops deployed for July 2006 to July 2007?

[ATLman1]

Lady Celeste, on Mar 27 2008, 04:04 PM, said:

I guess what Aboutmetro is saying is:

If Columbus' population was down by X, then how many troops were deployed and how many new citzens moved to the metro. Did the number of troops deployed exceed the number of new citizens. That could be the case though. Georgia's second most numeric gainer added 7800+ people. If Columbus added the same amount or similar and there were 15000 troops deployed then it could skew the number. Did I make any sense? I guess I'm saying that Columbus could be growing at the same rate as other fast growing metros but the numbers will not reflect that because of the large troop deployment.    

How can one obtain the number of troops deployed for July 2006 to July 2007?

We have to remember that Ft. Benning is home to the 3rd ID and the Rangers, so obviously that is thousands upon thousands of people. It would be interesting to see how many total troops are deployed right now.

Is the city of Columbus down or is it Chattahoochee County that is down? If it is Chattahoochee County, that is 100% due to the troops because that is where Ft. Benning is located.

[ATLman1]

There is an article in the Columbus Ledger-Enquirer that confirms that the population loss is due to troop deployments because the troops are counted in the census while they are here. So that's really good news!

[Lady Celeste]

I think most of us already knew it was troop deployment. As I stated earlier, the AJC had already made that clear when the list first came out. What would help aboutmetro and others, I would think, would be to know the exact number of troops deployed in a years time? There has to be a definitive number because the census was able to say that metro Columbus fell by X number of people. If one can come up with that number then it would help greatly in the mathematical equation to gather what may have been population growth "if" troops X were not deployed. Of course it's a hypothetical considering they are in fact over in Iraq.

Here are some definitives we have:

Metro Columbus 2006 population stats
Metro Columbus 2007 population stats

Here is what we need:

Number of troops deployed from July 2006-July 2007
Number of new residents NOT associated directly with the military (this can include spouses and/or children of deployed members)

This would be helpful because someone from Metro Columbus could say: "Had it not been for the deployed troops, Metro Columbus would have grown by [X] amount of people."

Right now it's foggy and hard to compare Columbus' growth with other tier-two or lesser cities.

Quick question though to forumers in Augusta. Isn't there a military installation in the Augusta Metro? Is Fort Gordon near Augusta? Did they have any deployments from that base?

[Topher1]

^
I know Ft. Gordon deploys soldiers to Iraq, I just don't know if it's a significant portion of the workforce.  I think the primary function of the base is the Signal Corps, which is involved in communications and communications training...  So it's much less combat intensive than Ft. Benning.  Also, it's a significantly smaller portion of the local economy than Benning...  From wikipedia, Ft. Gordon employs up to 30,000 people, whereas Benning employs up to 100,000.  So I suppose that it's not only a smaller base, but one with smaller troop fluctuations.  Therefore the impact is far less...  

However, I know nothing about the structure of the military, so anyone please chime in if I'm completely wrong about this.  For Augustans, Ft. Gordon is really something that we know is there, but that doesn't really factor in to our daily lives very much (except when there's concerns of it closing)...  I imagine Ft. Benning is a much more relevant component to Columbus residents...

[PJA]

Yes Fort Gordon is located In Richmond County.  I know there were deployments but as Topher said Ft. Gordon employs less people to begin with.  So the loss was probably a lot less than Ft. Benning.  Also troops are constantly being stationed here so that probably balances the losses out.

[mitchella81]

Yes the Benning Deployments do strongly effect the population of Columbus after all Benning is the largest employer in Metro Columbus.  Benning is very important to the Columbus economy while Gordon is a much smaller base as was mentioned it is not as important to the economy of Augusta.  Ft. Benning, Ft. Stewart, and Robbins Air Force base do help to carry the communities they are near because of  the troop numbers & civillian employment numbers. Good news is the 3rd ID is suppose to begin returning in the summer months.  It's hard to exactly balance out would Columbus have experienced a population growth if there were not deployments from the base, but on another note Lee County, AL located across the river from Columbus was in the top 100 places in the U.S. of population growth last year. Also not a drastic increase, but other counties around the area away from Benning did also experience growth.

[aboutmetro]

ATLman1, on Mar 27 2008, 05:19 PM, said:

We have to remember that Ft. Benning is home to the 3rd ID and the Rangers, so obviously that is thousands upon thousands of people. It would be interesting to see how many total troops are deployed right now.

Is the city of Columbus down or is it Chattahoochee County that is down? If it is Chattahoochee County, that is 100% due to the troops because that is where Ft. Benning is located.

I don't know Altman, something's still not adding up. According to the paper, 3,800 troops are deployed and the MSA lost 7,600. Something has to account for the other half of the loss. Not to mention, you would thing that if the MSA had any growth at all there would have been some loss from troops, but not two times the troop deployment. I don't know, something is still not adding up. If those numbers are right, Columbus has a real issue. Someone needs to be working on the issue. Will Johnson doesn't seem to be living in the real world if he doesn't thing Muscogee loses population to the 'burbs.  That's an easy one to verify. The metro area built 1,300 homes last year and a quarter were in Muscogee.  that said, the area did build houses and apartments and they're not all sitting empty (alot are, but not all), so there are people living here. Of course, alot of that could be natural population aging - growing up and moving out of mom and dads, which wouldn't mean an increase in population.  Also, if anyone did any analysis, I'd bet the area still had a 'brain drain'.  This is a link to the article.  

And by the way, here are the numbers for counties in our area:

[aboutmetro]

mitchella81, on Mar 28 2008, 02:42 PM, said:

Yes the Benning Deployments do strongly effect the population of Columbus after all Benning is the largest employer in Metro Columbus.  Benning is very important to the Columbus economy while Gordon is a much smaller base as was mentioned it is not as important to the economy of Augusta.  Ft. Benning, Ft. Stewart, and Robbins Air Force base do help to carry the communities they are near because of  the troop numbers & civillian employment numbers. Good news is the 3rd ID is suppose to begin returning in the summer months.  It's hard to exactly balance out would Columbus have experienced a population growth if there were not deployments from the base, but on another note Lee County, AL located across the river from Columbus was in the top 100 places in the U.S. of population growth last year. Also not a drastic increase, but other counties around the area away from Benning did also experience growth.

Since troops do figure into population, Columbus had a population spurt in the leadup to the Surge.  Chattachoochee had increases in both the leadup to the war and the leadup to the surge.  Otherwise, since 2000 Columbus had flat growth (0.4%) and Chattahoochee had negative growth (-57%).

[ATLman1]

aboutmetro, on Mar 28 2008, 03:20 PM, said:

Since troops do figure into population, Columbus had a population spurt in the leadup to the Surge.  Chattachoochee had increases in both the leadup to the war and the leadup to the surge.  Otherwise, since 2000 Columbus had flat growth (0.4%) and Chattahoochee had negative growth (-57%).

I still believe it is from the troop deployments. A lot of families move back home when their husbands and wives go off to war for a year or more. Also, a lot of people have moved across the river to Lee County. At this time, Lee County isn't part of Columbus' MSA.  Also, there are many smaller units at Fort Benning that are deployed as well which could push that number up to 5000+. Columbus is doing well, it just looks bad because of the deployments and migration to Lee County because it is affordable. The 2010 census will probably knock everyone's socks off because the troops will be back and BRAC will be kicking in. Also, Lee County might become part of the MSA at that time.

[aboutmetro]

ATLman1, on Mar 29 2008, 11:07 AM, said:

I still believe it is from the troop deployments. A lot of families move back home when their husbands and wives go off to war for a year or more. Also, a lot of people have moved across the river to Lee County. At this time, Lee County isn't part of Columbus' MSA.  Also, there are many smaller units at Fort Benning that are deployed as well which could push that number up to 5000+. Columbus is doing well, it just looks bad because of the deployments and migration to Lee County because it is affordable. The 2010 census will probably knock everyone's socks off because the troops will be back and BRAC will be kicking in. Also, Lee County might become part of the MSA at that time.

I'll concede that there are too many factors re: troop deployments to get a good population number... but with new home sales down in double digit percentages and unemployment rising, I'd stop way short of saying Columbus is 'doing well'.  Once the troops are home, the local economy will most surely pick up, there's no denying that. I guess that begs the question too, though... as the war continues, how much impact will BRAC really have if the soldiers are in Iraq? Columbus may not see any BRAC dividends until the war is over...  And this all raises a red flag to me, that the local population and economy is too heavily dependent on wether or not troops are in town.  Troop deployment = negative growth? That's not good.  I don't want to paint a grim picture, but one of reality. Local leaders have some work to do to expand and diversify the local economy. When the war is over and BRAC happens, housing and retail will expand.  But there will also be several thousand new military spouses looking for jobs.

[Martinman]

Here are the latest (2008) population estimates for Georgia MSA's.

• Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA  5,376,285
  
• Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC        534,218
  
• Savannah, GA                          334,353
  
• Columbus, GA-AL                       287,653
  
• Macon, GA                             230,777
  
• Athens-Clarke County, GA              189,264
  
• Gainesville, GA                       184,814
  
• Albany, GA                        164,919
  
• Dalton, GA                        134,139
  
• Valdosta, GA                       133,348
  
• Warner Robins, GA                   133,161
  
• Brunswick, GA                    102,850

Edited by Martinman, 22 March 2009 - 02:16 PM.

[george]

I think it's funny that Warner Robins a suburb of Macon has a MSA almost as large as Macon.

[Spartan]

100,000 people is not anywhere close to being the same size.

[andremurra]

Rome, GA 95,980 (up 658)
Hinesville-Fort Stewart, GA 69,943 (down 1,971)

I guess these are the honorable mentions.

Edited by andremurra, 02 July 2009 - 08:26 AM.

[Unifour]

It's amazing the amount of population Atlanta has added this decade. When one looks at where it was coming from as recently as 1990 and 2000, one cannot help but be astonished. Remember, in 1990 the famously undercounted census number was 394,017 and 2000 showed only a slim gain to 416,474. While the census clearly showed an acceleration in growth this decade, they were forced to continually revise the estimates in an effort to keep pace. First they showed only modest gains again, then several times upgraded by tens of thousands of people. It is astonishing that a city's fortunes can be reversed as much as Atlanta's have. From 416,474 in 2000, the city has skyrocketed to 540,921 according to the 2009 estimate. That is a gain of 124,500 people in NINE years! Also, we must remember that these are rough estimates and are usually undercounted. The census almost never OVERCOUNTS people. When you look at the MSA and CSA figures, it is equally astonishing given the economic troubles the nation has confronted. Atlanta still added a whopping 1.2 million people, from 4,247,000 to 5,475,000. Again, remember this is likely undercounted. The census showed metro Atlanta housed more than 200,000 more people than they estimated it would in 2000. More counties could be added in 2010, as they normally are for such a rapidly expanding area, so it's number could be significantly higher. And of course the lastest CSA estimate was 5,831,000, so you may as well get used to calling Atlanta a 6 million plus metro. It sure didn't take it long to get there either!

Edited by Unifour, 12 July 2010 - 11:45 AM.

[aboutmetro]

I don't put a lot of stock in the "Estimates". In the local area, we know that Russell County in Alabama has built/sold more housing units in the last year for new soldiers coming to Fort Benning than the ACS shows in total people added.... but anyway, a good map and data for the COLA (Columbus-Opelika-LaGrange-Auburn) Economic Region at this link.