43 replies to this topic

[imaterry78247]

Trae, on May 5 2007, 04:53 PM, said:

I think Austin's metro will pass SA's soon because it is growing faster, and already not too far behind it.

I think San Antonio will have a population explosion in the next 5 years. Austin has enjoyed a nice ride but you can see the decline coming

[cowboytx26]

Trae, on May 5 2007, 03:53 PM, said:

I think Austin's metro will pass SA's soon because it is growing faster, and already not too far behind it.

I averaged both cities rates of growth for the 2000-2006 period.  If you make the assumption that the growth rates for the next 30 years will look like the average over the last 7 ('00 - '06), Austin MSA will be about the same size as the San Antonio MSA around 2038.  So for another 30 years San Antonio will remain the larger MSA.  It is interesting to note some of the factors that weigh into this.  

Such as, Austin tends to do much better in growth than San Antonio during "High Tech Industry" growth years.  While San Antonio grows very steadily even during big downturns, it doesn't appear to grow as fast during the good years.

It is conceivable that if a few downturns in the High Tech Industry occurred during the next 30 years, then it may take longer than 30 years for Austin MSA to surpass San Antonio MSA.

[cowboytx26]

With the assumption that the rate of growth remains the same, each MSA (Austin and San Antonio) will have around 3 million people in 2038 (6 million combined).  I wonder how this region will be with two MSA's of that size neighboring each other.  I hope that both will find more ways to cooperate as well as compete.

[Schertz1]

I think San Antonio will reach 3 million around 2030.  In 2010 I expect it to have about 2.1 millon.