56 replies to this topic

[nowensone]

Wow, this is an amazing topic, awesome reading and speculation as to the future, I'll be following this one.

aussie luke, on Aug 27 2006, 06:15 PM, said:

Look at Charlotte, driving up 85 towards Greensboro, you don't notice any cities besides Salisbury.  Everything else is trees, despite the fact that you are driving past some larger suburbs like Concord, Kannapolis, Lexington, and High Point.  They have very decent sizes to them, but are barely noticeable from the interstate.  It's just a matter of how the cities are oriented.

Just to comment on this, a very true observation, there are other parts of the country, I'm thinking mainly midwest and of Texas which I am most familiar, where development specifically grows along road networks and addresses them directly, where as in most of the East, development is hidden from the road networks, even if by nothing more than a screen of Leyland Cypresses.  While Kannapolis and Concord do have a few big retail exits that address the interstate, the rest of the cities are hidden well by a buffer of trees.  Much of ATL's sprawl off of the loop (and 85 itself) in places is hidden by trees as well.  The Northeast is like this as well though has gotten so compacted that it can't be completely hidden.

Anyway, the interesting point is that it creates a great disparity in terms of perceived size - driving through Waco along 35 would lead you to believe that it is at least twice the size of Durham or Greensboro along 85 when infact the opposite is true.  Richmond, other than the great DT view that comes upon you suddenly, is completely hidden from view, as is some of DC, and then great swathes of the northern half of NJ even while you are in the midst of some of the most dense areas in the country approaching NYC.  And it begins again as you pass out of Manhattan heading into Connecticut with few interrruptions.

Edited by nowensone, 07 November 2006 - 03:17 PM.

[nowensone]

It would seem I am a topic killer... Bump.

[AuLukey]

Phillydog, on Nov 7 2006, 03:30 PM, said:

I used to drive the Raleigh to Washington route pretty frequently until recently.  I have a hard time imagining that the area between Oxford and Petersburg, VA (the edges of the Triangle and Richmond, VA metros) will fill-in any time soon.  I wouldn't say "never" but if anything, economic gravity is pulling these places further apart.  At one time, the places between Raleigh and Durham and Petersburg and Richmond were largely economically autonomous but more similiar to one another than they were different in terms of economics and demographics.  I would argue that in the past few decades, these small towns and unincorporated rural areas are more and more dependent on the larger, adjacent, metros.  To this end, I would argue that Richmond is becoming more "northern" while the region from Raleigh southward is retaining its "southernness".  This doesn't preclude them merging, but the point is that Richmond is being pulled northward and Raleigh is being pulled southward.  A true believer in retaining "uniqueness", I'm not sure I would welcome a filling-in of that gap.  

More significant, I think, is the "parellel" (to the I-85 corridor) complex of development that runs from Raleigh south through Fayetteville to Columbia and Augusta, GA to Atlanta.  Does this corridor merge with the 85 corridor?

The more I look at density maps as well as geographic maps of the area between the Triangle and Richmond, the less I feel that they could grow together.  It's not even the lack of people that is keeping this area from growing, but the lack of actual towns as well.  I mean, sure there are the mini-towns of gas stations and restaurants around a few exits, but I'm talking about actual populated areas.  Between Petersburg, VA and Henderson, NC I counted four towns along I-85 in that 90 mile stretch: South Hill, La Crosse, Alberta, and McKenney.  Unless one of those towns experiences an enormous surge of growth, I can't see anything happening between the southern and northeastern axises to jumpstart them growing together.  Sprawl can only grow so far from a core.

[JDC]

Having made the trek from Durham to Boston (and back) over a dozen times, I'd say most definitely the two hours between Richmond and Durham are not at all an extension of the megalopolis. I'd go so far as to say that once you're south of Alexandria, the metro axis is over, certainly by the time you reach Fredericksburg anyway.

[davidals]

Phillydog, on Nov 7 2006, 03:30 PM, said:

More significant, I think, is the "parellel" (to the I-85 corridor) complex of development that runs from Raleigh south through Fayetteville to Columbia and Augusta, GA to Atlanta.  Does this corridor merge with the 85 corridor?

I don't think so - looking back at the maps posted here - the pattern for development predates the interstates - the rail line that runs from Raleigh to Atlanta - note the stretch in N GA where the development departs from I-85 for close to 100 miles, running through Gainesville, Toccoa, Seneca, Easley.  That other corridor also mostly follows a rail line and US 1, and I bet any development will fill out between the towns, with a lot of emptiness between the two developed corridors.  There's some surprisingly empty territory between Charlotte & Fayetteville, or Charlotte and Columbia.

[Nathan]

It think this metro chain will connect to Augusta (through Charlotte-Columbia-Augusta) before it connects to Atlanta. There still a lot of space between Atlanta and Greenville as well as space between Norfolk and Raleigh/Durham area.

[teshadoh]

Nathan.  There is nothing between Charlotte (Rock Hill, SC) & Columbia.  And additionally, there is nothing between Columbia (Lexington) & Augusta (Aiken).  And there is going to be a whole lot of nothing for several decades in the future, except for some exurban sprawl south of Rock Hill & north of Columbia / Camden.  

There are a lot of Augusta forumers who appear delighted at the prospect of massive sprawl occurring in an unrealistic time line, but it just won't happen any time soon.  Unfortunately Georgia towns like Commerce & Toccoa will grow significantly due to their logistical location & the I-85 corridor will develop further as it has in the past 20 years (considering Commerce was absolutely in the middle of nowhere just 15 years ago).  Now - will this constitute a megalopolis, not anytime soon due to the low density & irregular development.  But it will develop far more than the I-77 & I-20 corridors which have largely been dormant.

[suburban george3]

teshadoh, on Mar 12 2007, 09:56 PM, said:

There are a lot of Augusta forumers who appear delighted at the prospect of massive sprawl occurring in an unrealistic time line, but it just won't happen any time soon.  Unfortunately Georgia towns like Commerce & Toccoa will grow significantly due to their logistical location & the I-85 corridor will develop further as it has in the past 20 years (considering Commerce was absolutely in the middle of nowhere just 15 years ago).  Now - will this constitute a megalopolis, not anytime soon due to the low density & irregular development.  But it will develop far more than the I-77 & I-20 corridors which have largely been dormant.

I have to agree, many of the small towns in GA along the 85 corridor are growing.  Jefferson, Cornelia, Hartwell, Winder, and the mentioned Toccoa and Commerce.  Even towns between Athens and Atlanta are growing.

You don't see this type of growth on I-20 between Augusta and Columbia or Augusta and Conyers/Covington.  There are healthy towns, but not growing at the clip of their I-85 counterparts.

The I-77 corridor from Rock Hill to Columbia is not growing quickly either.  Blythewood is about the furthest northern reaches of suburban sprawl from Columbia.

I think soon (within 20 years) you will see pretty much continuous development from Atlanta to Henderson, NC on I-85.  There will still be areas where density is thin, but I think we'll be surprised at the amount of growth in the next 20 years.

[krazeeboi]

Just for the record: are we wanting to see stuff like this happen?

[teshadoh]

krazeeboi, on Mar 13 2007, 03:14 AM, said:

Just for the record: are we wanting to see stuff like this happen?

Not at all.  It will minimize growth in the urban centers.  As much excitement people have over growth in Atlanta, Greenville & Charlotte - imagine what level of growth would occur without exurban sprawl?

Edited by teshadoh, 13 March 2007 - 08:09 AM.

[pyper]

teshadoh, on Mar 12 2007, 07:56 PM, said:

happen any time soon.  Unfortunately Georgia towns like Commerce & Toccoa will grow significantly due to their logistical location & the I-85 corridor will develop further as it has in the past 20 years (considering Commerce was absolutely in the middle of nowhere just 15 years ago).

Commerce is *still* in the middle of nowhere, as far as I can tell. Commerce is about 35 minutes south of the state line, and there's nothing between here and there but farmland. I know what all those lights are in the NASA photos -- they're pole lamps people like me put on our property to light things up at night. Like street lights. I've got one, there is one on the property to my south, and two on the next property up to the north. The adjacent property to the north doesn't need one -- we've got him covered  

I don't see Toccoa growing anytime soon. They're way behind Seneca. It might look like it's got good access to I-85 on a map, but the roads aren't that good.

I just thought of a good definition of "rural."

Rural -- Adj. a place where dogs outnumber people.     

It's very rural between Commerce and Anderson.

[davidals]

krazeeboi, on Mar 13 2007, 04:14 AM, said:

Just for the record: are we wanting to see stuff like this happen?

No.

I think we're headed in that direction, slowly, though.  I think any excitement over the idea is connected to a few things, ignoring big, obvious drawbacks - some of us probably would like the clout that can be seen coming out of the NE megalopolis.  But that clout isn't just based in size and sprawl - it's based in cultural importance, diversity, interconnectedness and other people-centric aspects that emerged from how those cities were built.  This is not to say that those cities don't have a lot of sprawl, vast stretches of ugliness and dead zones between core cities, or serious urban issues, but we have less of those people-centric aspects down here, and an I-85 megalopolis, as it's currently developing, will lack those things in most places at least.  Thus we'll get the people, who will be highly dispersed in most places, and a lot less of the other kinds of importance.  And I think it will happen along the I-85 Atlanta-to-Durham corridor before anywhere else, with the expected extensions down I-40 E of Raleigh, and maybe up 75 to Chattanooga and 26 to Asheville.  A lot of the exurban sprawl is hidden, but that which can be seen is brand new, and you can already sense the coming deterioration and wasteful disposability in the great majority of it.

[teshadoh]

davidals, on Mar 13 2007, 05:24 PM, said:

A lot of the exurban sprawl is hidden, but that which can be seen is brand new, and you can already sense the coming deterioration and wasteful disposability in the great majority of it.

I think that is a big point - exurban sprawl is hidden.  Most people are completely oblivious to sprawl, primarily in the exurban reaches of major cities.  Sprawl is not the shopping center, apartment complex or office park.  It is the farmer subdividing his land into 10 lots for the suburban commuter to have his 2 acres of country.  It's the warehouse off the freeway 5 exits away from the last shopping mall.  It's the cross roads collection of gas stations & McDonalds, in what appears to be nowhere.

That is what is most concerning of exurban sprawl, whereas suburban growth was oriented around a primary city - exurban growth is not.  In the classic suburbs, you work in the big city, you go out to eat in the big city, you believe you are associated with the big city.  Exurban growth is true nihilism - you are not part of any metropolitan area, yet economically you are tied to the metropolitan area.

Yet because exurban development appears to be low impact, because singularly it is - it is ignored by everyone, even the rural residents that claim they still live outside the suburbs.  But plurally exurban growth is making a huge impact - as can be seen along I-85 beyond Gwinnett County outside of Atlanta.

[davidals]

^
Exactly.  I'm definitely not non-growth, and would even endorse fairly rapid growth, if it's done well/smart (which is very, very rarely).  I want to see the Atlanta-to-Triangle corridor succeed in new ways - become a multi-centered region of business, education and culture that could wield an influence nationally or internationally - and some areas definitely do or are starting to - I think the economic interconnectedness of the Triangle, Triad, Greater Charlotte, SC Upstate and Atlanta is only going to deepen with the passage of time.  

I think some current development patterns could undercut all of this if we don't watch out - trash up the landscape that is part of the attraction to the area, while contributing to the kinds of traffic and pollution headaches that drove people out of other regions and initially into this one.  

I think it's close to impossible (not completely) for cities in the region to look across state lines with a more regional mode of thought, but if it could be done...certain kinds of things like transit options, green space preservation, and perhaps some infrastructure issues would be positively affected.  It would be nice if the endless project to upgrade I-85 to 6/8 lanes from Durham to Atlanta could actually be coordinated between the three states, as an example.  This would actually require the DOTs in 3 adjoining states to actually talk to each other, and a regional focus in general would essentially be the metros demanding that their respective state governments give up some lingering feudalistic tendencies, which would be a tall order, but still - these issues don't stop at city limits, county lines, or state lines.

Not only are the cores of the major cities in the region in need of attention (which they are getting, generally), the midsize link cities - Athens, Anderson, Spartanburg, Gastonia, Kannapolis, Salisbury, Burlington - should as well.  I think this would make high-speed, intra-regional passenger rail more workable - instead of endless cul-de-sacs from metro to metro, it would be nice if the smaller cities - which all have human-scale downtowns and an abundant stock of affordable, well-built housing close-in (and were less cut up by urban renewal and freeways) - were brought a bit more into the regional picture, and devoted similar attention to good, non-disposable development.

Enough o my rantin'

Edited by davidals, 14 March 2007 - 06:14 AM.

[pyper]

The problem with light rail, at the present time, is that you're kind of stuck once you get off the station at the destination.  It would be nice to be able to ride a train from Anderson to Charlotte, but once you get off in Charlotte you either have to walk or take a cab, unless you feel like getting on a city bus.

[TennBear]

Here is a map that shows population density for counties.

http://gislounge.com...ges/density.gif

[pyper]

TennBear, on 16 April 2007 - 10:15 AM, said:

Here is a map that shows population density for counties.

http://gislounge.com...ges/density.gif

What an ugly map!

Here's one that shows population density by Census Tract:

http://i97.photobuck...tionDensity.jpg