64 replies to this topic

[monsoon]

As we all know one of the big reasons that people relocate to the South is because of the warm winter weather.  It should be no surprise to anyone now that we are faced with the effects of global warming as there is plenty of scientific evidence that it is here and we are going to have to deal with it.   For the purposes of this topic, global warming could mean that in 20 years Northern winters are no longer that cold and that Southern summers have become brutally hot.   And on top of that hurricanes, storms, and flooding could be much worse in such a hot environment.   I am assuming there won't be much done about global warming until it becomes much worse as many people, including a lot of Southerners,  are still in denial that it even exists.  

So the question is will the spectre of a hotter more stormy environment cause a mass migration of people from the South back to the Northern climates?  Will Chicago for example become the new super city of the USA?   What cities are the most likely to lose people in the South due to global warming and why?   Can anything be done to combat the effects of it?

[SBCmetroguy]

monsoon, on Dec 31 2006, 11:56 AM, said:

As we all know one of the big reasons that people relocate to the South is because of the warm winter weather.  It should be no surprise to anyone now that we are faced with the effects of global warming as there is plenty of scientific evidence that it is here and we are going to have to deal with it.   For the purposes of this topic, global warming could mean that in 20 years Northern winters are no longer that cold and that Southern summers have become brutally hot.   And on top of that hurricanes, storms, and flooding could be much worse in such a hot environment.   I am assuming there won't be much done about global warming until it becomes much worse as many people, including a lot of Southerners,  are still in denial that it even exists.  

So the question is will the spectre of a hotter more stormy environment cause a mass migration of people from the South back to the Northern climates?  Will Chicago for example become the new super city of the USA?   What cities are the most likely to lose people in the South due to global warming and why?   Can anything be done to combat the effects of it?

Southern Summers are already brutally hot. If, in fact, global warming really did exist and such a problem were to occur, it would probably only be similar to the Summers in the southwest. Yet people are still relocating to cities like Phoenix and Las Vegas like crazy.

[monsoon]

SBCmetroguy, on Dec 31 2006, 01:04 PM, said:

Southern Summers are already brutally hot. If, in fact, global warming really did exist and such a problem were to occur, it would probably only be similar to the Summers in the southwest. Yet people are still relocating to cities like Phoenix and Las Vegas like crazy.

Pheonix and Las Vegas don't have the humidity that most of the South has.  But beyond that, this isn't a debate on Global Warming, and the questions concern itself with what will happen in 20 years, not now.  If the North ends up having warmer winters why not move there if the summers are nice?  That is the purpose of this thread.

[SBCmetroguy]

monsoon, on Dec 31 2006, 12:10 PM, said:

Pheonix and Las Vegas don't have the humidity that most of the South has.

This is true; but when it's 106 degrees in Dallas, it's still 106 degrees just like it is in Vegas. The only difference is, the air is heavier and you sweat more. Our fat American bodies could stand to sweat a bit more.

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But beyond that, this isn't a debate on Global Warming

Who said it was? You mentioned that there's plenty of proof saying Global Warming exists, and all I said in my response was "If, in fact, global warming really did exist and such a problem were to occur..." Doesn't look like a debate or an argument to me, just me countering your opinion with my own as I responded.

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and the questions concern itself with what will happen in 20 years, not now.  If the North ends up having warmer winters why not move there if the summers are nice?  That is the purpose of this thread.

Did I argue the purpose of this thread? I don't believe I did.

Is it possible that another reason people are moving from the north is the fact that it's overcrowded and nasty in many of the major northern cities as well? They're most likely not all moving here because of the warmer weather, though I'm sure it's a plus.

[monsoon]

^OK We will put you down in the, "It won't make any difference" if it happens camp.

[suburban george3]

We'll just build more fossil fuel supplied power generating plants and keep our southern suburban sprawl nice and air conditioned!

I don't think the South will be abandoned, there are more factors than just weather that has attracted people and business over the past few decades.  However, if the hurricanes and storms here get worse and the summers get to say averaging 105-115 air temp, you might see some migration.  I don't plan on leaving, but I have "eaten" my words before.

[Lady Celeste]

Honestly I can't see this happening in my lifetime. I really don't see it happening in my children's lifetime. Perhaps my great grandchildren will the effects of global warming. IIRC, the change is like a degree to the average every decade. I could recall incorrectly. If that is the case then it will take several decades before the heat in the south is unbearable. By that time, if I am still around, I would have no problem moving to Toronto. Oddly enough, I remember as a child when Atlanta had summers that were so hot you could fry an egg on the street. There were times when it would be 100 degrees for days. Since I have been older, I don't recall summers like that anymore.

Atlanta has a very temperate climate being in the foothills of the Appalachian Mountains. We are warmer by a few degrees in the winter than many of our southern competitors and cooler by a few degrees in the summer. It will take a very long time before global warming is so drastic an event that the summers are unbearable. Who knows though...with all of the combustible engines in China revving up, we may be in Toronto when I'm in my early 100's.

[krazeeboi]

monsoon, on Dec 31 2006, 12:56 PM, said:

For the purposes of this topic, global warming could mean that in 20 years Northern winters are no longer that cold and that Southern summers have become brutally hot.   And on top of that hurricanes, storms, and flooding could be much worse in such a hot environment.

I definitely believe that global warming is happening, but has any scientist made predictions that such could occur within 20 years?

[suburban george3]

krazeeboi, on Dec 31 2006, 03:51 PM, said:

I definitely believe that global warming is happening, but has any scientist made predictions that such could occur within 20 years?

I don't think that predictions haven't been made from one end of the scale to the other, it's the reliability of such predictions.  I mean, we think we know so much about how are planet works but we've only just begun to scratch the surface.  Also, some current consequences of global warming have been outside of predictions and not what scientists have expected.  Who knows, we could wake up with a "Day after Tomorrow" scenerio soon and the Southern Cities will be more like Buffalo and the Northern cities uninhabitable.

Edited by suburban george3, 31 December 2006 - 07:08 PM.

[monsoon]

krazeeboi, on Dec 31 2006, 03:51 PM, said:

I definitely believe that global warming is happening, but has any scientist made predictions that such could occur within 20 years?

Warmer winters are happening now.

[mallguy]

I saw a story a while back that stated that average temperatures in the South, unlike in the rest of the US and Europe, have not increased in recent decades and that the region's temperatures, for whatever reason, weren't likely to increase due to global warming.  If that's true, then I don't see people fleeing, except from hurricane-prone areas.

(This does NOT mean that I'm a global-warming skeptic; quite the contrary; I am upset and livid that the plenty of politicians are, though.)

[johnnydr87]

I'm not sure it will have any effect--we have technology after all (good AC systems).

That's not to say global warming isn't important and in need of serious remedy for a host of other reasons.

And just a side note to deflate any possible future comments people make: someoften like to speak of global warming as if it just another contestable theory when it is essentially fact at this point.  We often see that type of debate take place in forums like these.  There was a study on the actual studies in December 2004 there was really no "debate" within the scientific community of the verity of global warming:

Quote

Of all the papers, 75% fell into the first three categories, either explicitly or implicitly accepting the consensus view; 25% dealt with methods or paleoclimate, taking no position on current anthropogenic climate change. Remarkably, none of the papers disagreed with the consensus position.

http://www.sciencema...l/306/5702/1686

Also, many people argue that our earth's climate naturally varies over time, and thus global warming is just another natural continuation of this trend--as if it never crossed the minds of environmental scientists that the earth's climate naturally changes over time.  The difference with global warming is that the earth is heating up several times faster due to human activities.

That said, I still doubt it will have much effect on the south.  Like I said, we have technology to cool us.  It might, as has been mentioned, stop the flow of northern transplants.  I'm not sure, however, if people will actually move out of the south.  Also, it is important to note that the climate change occurs more drasticallyat points farther from the equator, so the south's average temperature will not change as drastically as, say, New York's.

[krazeeboi]

monsoon, on Dec 31 2006, 08:02 PM, said:

Warmer winters are happening now.

This I know, but I just wanted to know if there were any catastrophic predictions within the next 20 years similiar to what you were depicting in your initial post.

[convulso]

if you're going to be combative with people who've had the interest to dignify your thread with thoughtful responses, get ready to get as good as ya give, etc. when admins frame their 'discussions' in this way, it tends to kill that honeymoon buzz i've had posting on this site thus far. i'd be surprised if i'm alone in such a sentiment.

20 years? LoL!

i may not be alive in 20 years, but those who are will observe that the deep south will have experienced a net population gain that outpaces that of the rust belt. to suggest otherwise means you need to live a little longer and get out of the chicken little alarmist it-could-happen-to-you tv newsscare mentality. global warming is a fact, yadda yadda - no argument from me - and i do what modest things i can not to be a part of the problem - but the worry just ain't gonna be at critical mass stage in 20 years. write me back in '27 if i'm wrong. you won't.

this thread presupposes that people do sensible things (move away from heat / humidity just because it's more comfortable somewhere else.) that is not the case. people move to where the water supply is not sustainable (the desert southwest); where earthquakes and moutain building / erosion ensure high property insurance premiums and increased state / federal spending for disaster prevention (SoCal); and where hurricanes drive up costs and threaten infrastructure (FL, coastal AL, MS, LA, TX, GA, SC & NC). all of those places present obstacles to people who act sensibly and rationally - but - shocker! - we're human beings and that's not the way we act. i sure as hell don't want to live that way, at any rate.

no, people are not going to be fleeing the deep south in 20 years. 50; 100 - who the hell knows; we can't even foresee with certainty what shape the effects of global warming may take in such a brief span. over time, sure, whatever. whether brought on by forces of geology or mankind, locales will change over time to become more and less hospitable. eventually, if the earth stands long enough, the whole region won't even be recognizable as the deep south - most geologists still believe (even taking global warming into consideration) that we are in the midst of relatively frequent ice ages that push glaciers southward into the US from canada, and that the next one will again scour the midwest and may reach into even kentucky and tennessee. perhaps there would be a pop. trend away from the south at that time, but then again, imagine how changed this body politic, this culture, this state of human affairs may be in 10-50 thousand years. yeah. so i don't really wonder about whether 20 years will see the northward flight of remorseful southern transplants en masse. 20 years is not even long enough for a majority of people to change their habits in the wake of a fairly significant catastrophe.

LoL...

Edited by convulso, 01 January 2007 - 12:33 AM.

[davidals]

I don't think so, not within 20 years at least.  People were willing to migrate en masse to areas known for harsh winters for economic reasons, so it stands to reason that they'd do the same to places with hot weather.

The warmest known (or studied) period during Earth's history - 55~ million years ago - saw unfrozen polar regions and deciduous forest as far north as 80 degrees latitude (above the Arctic and Antarctic Circles), which shows up in fossil records.  Core samples also show that the temperature variation form equator to poles was not as sharp as now - thus I would guess (or theorize) that the changes in temperature brought about through global warming would be more pronounced the farther one got from the equator.  At lower latitudes, other changes (like desertification and storms) would - I suspect - be more severe, and while I'd bet these things would affect the South (among many other places), I think it will take more than 20 years.

[Mith242]

davidals, on Jan 1 2007, 07:38 AM, said:

I don't think so, not within 20 years at least.  People were willing to migrate en masse to areas known for harsh winters for economic reasons, so it stands to reason that they'd do the same to places with hot weather.

The warmest known (or studied) period during Earth's history - 55~ million years ago - saw unfrozen polar regions and deciduous forest as far north as 80 degrees latitude (above the Arctic and Antarctic Circles), which shows up in fossil records.  Core samples also show that the temperature variation form equator to poles was not as sharp as now - thus I would guess (or theorize) that the changes in temperature brought about through global warming would be more pronounced the farther one got from the equator.  At lower latitudes, other changes (like desertification and storms) would - I suspect - be more severe, and while I'd bet these things would affect the South (among many other places), I think it will take more than 20 years.

This brings up the argument, can you really positively say that this today's warmer weather is from manmade global warming or part of a more natural trend.  I'm not trying to say that people aren't having an effect on the earth and it's climate.  I also think it's probably a good idea for us to take more precautions on how we are affecting the planet.  But I wonder just a bit if people could possibly overestimate the effects humans have on the earth.  Maybe we were already heading to a warmer weather pattern and greenhouse gases just sped it up a bit.  Anyway just something to think about.

[shanthemanatl]

I don't see this happening, at least not any time soon.

I don't see the average temperature increasing significantly enough in the next few years for anybody to really notice.

Growing up in Georgia, it actually seems to me that winters are milder than when I was a kid, but summers don't seem as hot, either. Could just be my hazy recollections of childhood!

[gsupstate]

IMO global warming is definitely happening and at a faster rate than anyone realizes.  I would think Florida would be the first and most adversely affected due not only to temperatures, but also rise of sea levels.  How long?  Who knows.  I wouldn't think in my lifetime.

[lammius]

I think the poster who talked about how people never do sensible things is onto something.  Humans try to conquer nature, not respect it.  People are moving to the Southeast now because (1) it's NOT baking/burning yet, and (2) it's cheap to live and do business there.  I love the Northeast and never want to leave, but when I look at the cost of living in the South compared to what it costs to live here, sometimes I think I'm crazy for not moving.

[Durhamite]

Although, it was Wilmington, NC,  I can vividly recall wearing shorts to school in January in the early 80's one year or so.  I'm not a naysayer but I haven't noticed the huge swings in weather patterns since then (stats could prove me wrong).  I remember a huge snowstorm one Christmas and one in March.

Given the mild weather so far this winter, I'm counting on 2 feet of snow in late February, early March.