6 replies to this topic

[vdogg]

link

One thing I find intriguing about this report is a glaring omission. In the column where it list cities/counties that grew by more that 10,000 form 2000-2006 Virginia Beach was not there. I find this very strange since in last years report Virginia Beach was listed as growing by more than 10,000 from 2000-2005. How is this possible? Is it a mistake?

Localities                       growing by more than 10,000, 2000-2005                                               Loudoun
Prince                       William
                     Fairfax
                     Chesterfield
                     Stafford
                     Spotsylvania
                     Henrico
                     Chesapeake
                     Suffolk
                 Virginia Beach

                  

Localities                 Gaining More Than 10,000, 2000-2006                                                       Loudoun               Co.
  Prince William Co.
  Fairfax Co.
  Chesterfield Co.
  Stafford Co.
  Spotsylvania Co.
  Henrico Co.
  Chesapeake City
  Suffolk City
  Frederick Co.
  James City Co.

[vdogg]

Also, some interesting analysis of what it means from here.

Quote

While the population of Fairfax, Arlington, and Alexandria is growing, it is important to examine why. There are two components of population growth: natural (meaning births), and migration (people moving in). Inner, maturing suburbs are seeing their population grow not with migration (in fact, there’s a net loss), but by births. The older population is moving out of Virginia Beach and Fairfax, replaced with a younger generation. Fairfax, Arlington, and Alexandria are essentially coasting on fumes. More people are moving out than moving in, but enough babies are being born to sustain growth.

[vdogg]

Below are the raw population figures for 2005-2006. It looks like Va. Beach was adjusted downward to 8,292 net growth.

Attached Files

•  2006_va_estimates_chart.pdf   49.52K   106 downloads

[johnhowell]

Thanks for the data.  I find it interesting to note that only the Hampton Roads metro area and the Danville metro area are the only two metropolitans with a decrease in net migration.

[vdogg]

The slight decrese due to net migration (-0.4%) which was offset by a natural increase of 4.6% for HR is largely attributable to our transient military population.

[lammius]

That seems to have been a trend for the last 10 or 15 years.  Hampton Roads gains population by births, not migration.  I remember the first time I ever became aware of sprawl was when a story in the Pilot came out after the 2000 Census.  It said something to the effect that more people moved out of HR than into HR during the 1990s, and those who stay are spreading out over a larger area.

[Telmnstr]

Wait a minute. If anything, the military is what has kept the population up. There have been lots of jobs added in the contracting space, which brought in lots of employees seeking jobs after the 9/11 fiasco.

You owe it to the gov't contractors for keeping things up. Outside of gov't contractors, we don't have that much of large business.

Of course there are the people cashing out of more expensive home markets such as Boston, MA and New York and moving here for the cheaper (to them) housing.

I expect more out-migration to take place, as costs of living have increased so rapidly for the area. If gov't spending is cut back then it might happen even quicker.

Loosing population isn't a bad thing.

It probably isn't pretty, but if you can find the #'s of kids being born below poverty level, I bet it's higher than you would expect.