111 replies to this topic

[distortedlogic]

I remember finding a US census site somewhere a couple months bach that was giving a 2006 projection of like 412k. I do not put too much in these estimates however. I mentioned in the 1999 thread that a 1998 estimate put the county at 353k, but the 2000 census was 379. I doubt it actually grew by 26k in two years, it was just underestimated quite a bit. I would not be surprised at all if we are nearing 425-430k as of today if we got an accurate count.

[Spartan]

Census Population estimates are just that- estimates. The 100% data is generally more reliable (though there are issues with it as well).

For the latest estimates, go to this website:

http://www.census.gov/popest/

I've not seen any 2006 data at the county level, so I am interested to know where you found it.

[distortedlogic]

I don't remember exactly, but it wasn't a 2006 estimate, it was a projection for 2006. I think I talked about it in another pop thread somewhere, and even posted a link, but not sure which thread it was.

[Spartan]

Oh. Well projections are a different thing entirely. Estimates are based off of hard data. Projections are educated guesses at best.

[distortedlogic]

Hereis the link I was talking about. It says the info is from the US census. It has SC estimate for 2006, but only has projections for the counties. It projects Gville cty to have only modest growth of between 4 and 5k every year through 2035, but this is well below the average of almost 6k/year over the past 15 years. And with all the development, I would not expect that to change downward significantly if at all. I would actually expect that to go up. So I think these projections for gville county are probably way off.

[distortedlogic]

Here is the same link I posted on the state page, but thought we could discuss Greenville's position in this thread. No surprise to me that we have added 10k in the past year. People talk sooo much about the coastal growth, but there is very little difference in actual numbers. I think Greenville will remain the most populated county, by far, for a long time to come. In fact, over the last couple of estimates, it looks like the numbers are on the increase.  

[erm1981]

So we are actually pulling away from the other counties even more?

[GvilleSC]

erm1981, on Mar 23 2007, 08:40 PM, said:

So we are actually pulling away from the other counties even more?

All except for Horry, but the difference isn't great enough to make significant gains towards becoming number one. Based on a string of announcements from last year starting construction, continued interest in the area, and a positive future for CU-ICAR, I'd say it's safe to say 2007 will be another year of atleast 10,000 newcomers. It's all speculation though, and only time will tell.

[krazeeboi]

I suspect Greenville County's place at #1 will be secure for at least several more years.

[erm1981]

I wonder if the msa will ever be Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson again?  Almost everyone i know around me in piedmont or powdersville work in Greenville County.

[Spartan]

I think that is inevitable. But fo Anderson County- that may depend on how much Powdersville has grown in comparison to the remainder of Anderson County. Based on population alone, we can't say how much has changed for sure until the 2010 census figures are released and we can get into the more detailed datasets (wow I sound like a true geek there ). I would guess that out of the people in Anderson County who commute to Greenville, the majority of them live in the Powdersville and NE Anderson County area.

[GvilleSC]

I'm not too familiar with Anderson county growth, but Powdersville sure does have a lot going on. If my memory serves me correctly, Anderson never really grows that much in comparison to Greenville and Spartanburg Counties. I would think that Powdersville's growth would bring Anderson, atleast, back to the Greenville-Anderson MSA. Hopefully Spartanburg will jump on board, too.

[erm1981]

I think the Highway 28 exit at I-85 is where a lot of the growth in Anderson has happened.  That place is on fire down there.

[distortedlogic]

krazeeboi, on Mar 24 2007, 01:21 AM, said:

I suspect Greenville County's place at #1 will be secure for at least several more years.

Was that tongue in cheek, or are you serious about only "several more years?" The only county to outgrow Gville since 2000, in sheer numbers is Horry, and that only by about 4000 (per the estimates, except York may have grown more by a few hundred). With Gville currently about 180,000 more than Horry, if that trend countinued (which I am sure much will change in this time frame) it would take about 270 years for Horry to pass Gville. As for the three with the current closest population, Chas, Lex, Rich, Gville continues to extend it's lead over them, and there is no reason to suspect that will end.  

[Greercat]

krazeeboi, on Mar 24 2007, 01:21 AM, said:

I suspect Greenville County's place at #1 will be secure for at least several more years.

WHAT??  Maybe I'm reading this wrong Kraz, but you state this as though you expect some county will surpass Greenville in the next "several years".  Hate to spring this on you, but even if G'ville growth slowed to a crawl it would take a couple DECADES for your lower State counties to catch up.

The fact is, that since about the mid-twentith century G'ville's raw growth has been outpacing anything else in the State every decade since.  Last year's growth estimates continue this 50+ year old trend and no low country or midland county is going to come close to even reversing this trend for the foreseeable future.  Sure there are a few fast growing lower State counties, but most of those were very small twenty years ago and even today none of those have even come close to catching Charleston or Richland in their own neighborhoods.  

I know it kills the rest of the State to think about it, but Greenville IS the big county and the big Metro (no matter how the Fed's try to slice it).

[krazeeboi]

First of all, calm down. Stop taking any little comment as a slight against your city/metro/county, etc.; it ain't that serious.

For the record, I said that I expect Greenville County to stay at #1 for at least several more years--"several more years" here meaning at least forty to fifty (which corresponds to your "couple decades"). Within that time frame, something could happen that could propel some other county past Greenville County (yes, as much as you hate to think about it, that could theoretically happen--although I'm not seeing anything that would indicate that it might). So I was merely making room for that possibility in my statement. There's absolutely no reason to believe that current growth rates will stay as is forever, as you seem to imply. I could cite several incidents, both in this state and elsewhere, where one city/metro/county was displaced by another within a relatively short period of time.

Geesh.

[Greercat]

krazeeboi, on Mar 24 2007, 11:34 PM, said:

First of all, calm down. Stop taking any little comment as a slight against your city/metro/county, etc.; it ain't that serious.

For the record, I said that I expect Greenville County to stay at #1 for at least several more years--"several more years" here meaning at least forty to fifty (which corresponds to your "couple decades"). Within that time frame, something could happen that could propel some other county past Greenville County (yes, as much as you hate to think about it, that could theoretically happen--although I'm not seeing anything that would indicate that it might). So I was merely making room for that possibility in my statement. There's absolutely no reason to believe that current growth rates will stay as is forever, as you seem to imply. I could cite several incidents, both in this state and elsewhere, where one city/metro/county was displaced by another within a relatively short period of time.

Geesh.

That's cool...  Peace!

[Spartan]

GvilleSC- you are correct. Anderson usually doesn't grow as much as Greenville or Spartanburg. I guess what I was asking is to what extent is Powdersville holding up the rest of Anderson County's growth numbers? And to that same point, to what extent is Anderson proper holding its own? There is certainly growth occuring in Anderson, I'm just not sure to what extent.

Greercat, on Mar 25 2007, 12:21 AM, said:

WHAT??  Maybe I'm reading this wrong Kraz, but you state this as though you expect some county will surpass Greenville in the next "several years".  Hate to spring this on you, but even if G'ville growth slowed to a crawl it would take a couple DECADES for your lower State counties to catch up.

The fact is, that since about the mid-twentith century G'ville's raw growth has been outpacing anything else in the State every decade since.  Last year's growth estimates continue this 50+ year old trend and no low country or midland county is going to come close to even reversing this trend for the foreseeable future.  Sure there are a few fast growing lower State counties, but most of those were very small twenty years ago and even today none of those have even come close to catching Charleston or Richland in their own neighborhoods.  

I know it kills the rest of the State to think about it, but Greenville IS the big county and the big Metro (no matter how the Fed's try to slice it).

Greenville is not the largest metro unless you include Spartanburg and Anderson, in which case you must recognize that the multinodal nature of the Upstate requires Greenville to share that distinctive limelight. The Upstate is more than just Greenville. It suprises me that you all would reply in such defensive an manner to that stray comment.

[distortedlogic]

Spartan, on Mar 25 2007, 11:45 AM, said:

GvilleSC- you are correct. Anderson usually doesn't grow as much as Greenville or Spartanburg. I guess what I was asking is to what extent is Powdersville holding up the rest of Anderson County's growth numbers? And to that same point, to what extent is Anderson proper holding its own? There is certainly growth occuring in Anderson, I'm just not sure to what extent.
Greenville is not the largest metro unless you include Spartanburg and Anderson, in which case you must recognize that the multinodal nature of the Upstate requires Greenville to share that distinctive limelight. The Upstate is more than just Greenville. It suprises me that you all would reply in such defensive an manner to that stray comment.

I agree, the upstate is more than just Greenville, much more. That is part of what makes it the largest region in the state, and why the upstate cities and towns need to work together more than they do instead of always trying to compete so much. The Grand Strand is more than just Myrtle Beach, (though MB is clearly the main player) and it would not do as well if there were no Surfside, Garden City, N Myrtle, etc.

[gsupstate]

distortedlogic, on Mar 25 2007, 12:26 PM, said:

I agree, the upstate is more than just Greenville, much more. That is part of what makes it the largest region in the state, and why the upstate cities and towns need to work together more than they do instead of always trying to compete so much. The Grand Strand is more than just Myrtle Beach, (though MB is clearly the main player) and it would not do as well if there were no Surfside, Garden City, N Myrtle, etc.

Same could be said for Charleston, North Charleston, Mt.Pleasant, Summerville, etc or the Midlands with Columbia, Lexington, Blythewood, Sumter, etc.

The Upstate does need to work together, because under the old metro terms, Greenville, Spartanburg and Anderson are one metro, the largest, with Greenville at the core.  This is how national companies see it.....and we all know, "perception is reality".