48 replies to this topic

[krazeeboi]

Surprisingly, I haven't seen anything about the new Census estimates that came out last week, so I just decided to go ahead and start a thread about that. Here are the 2006 Triad county estimates compared with the 2005 figures (someone let me know if I left any counties out):

Alamance County
2006: 142,661
2005: 140,227
Actual change: 2,434
% change: 1.7

Caswell County
2006: 23,546
2005: 23,490
Actual change: 56
% change: 0.2

Davidson County
2006: 156,236
2005: 154,533
Actual change: 1,703
% change: 1.1

Davie County
2006: 40,035
2005: 39,015
Actual change: 1,020
% change: 2.6

Forsyth County
2006: 332,355
2005: 325,726
Actual change: 6,629
% change: 2.0

Guilford County
2006: 451,905
2005: 443,539
Actual change: 8,366
% change: 1.9

Randolph County
2006: 140,410
2005: 138,176
Actual change: 2,234
% change: 1.6

Rockingham County
2006: 93,063
2005: 92,504
Actual change: 559
% change: 0.6

Stokes County
2006: 46,168
2005: 45,790
Actual change: 378
% change: 0.8

Surry County
2006: 72,687
2005: 72,422
Actual change: 265
% change: 0.4

Yadkin County
2006: 38,056
2005: 37,689
Actual change: 367
% change: 1.0


Now, here are 2006 MSA figures compared with 2000 figures:

Greensboro-High Point
2006: 685,378
2000: 643,430
Actual change: 41,948
% change: 6.5%

Winston-Salem
2006: 456,614
2000: 421,961
Actual change: 34,653
% change: 8.2%

Greensboro--Winston-Salem--High Point CSA
2006: 1,513,576
2000: 1,414,670
Actual change: 98,906
% change: 7.0%

[suburban george3]

After hearing/reading various news articles on the census number, I'm not really surprised.  The Triad is indeed growing at a solid pace, just not "booming."  I thought the growth rate would be a bit higher in Forsyth and Davie, even though they did have the highest growth rates in the region.

I think with the re-focusing of the local area on bringing "less traditional" industries (bio-tech, aviation, etc.) to the Triad and the successes they've had, we will see continued solid growth well into the future.

[krazeeboi]

These days, I'm not sure if you can call biotech a "less traditional" industry (although I know what you mean). Everybody and their momma wants in on biotech it seems.

[suburban george3]

krazeeboi, on Mar 25 2007, 11:06 PM, said:

These days, I'm not sure if you can call biotech a "less traditional" industry (although I know what you mean). Everybody and their momma wants in on biotech it seems.

I think everyone can have a piece of the biotech pie, but it helps if you can carve a "niche" out.  In the Triad they are pursuing a design spin on biotech.  The local universities, community colleges, and governments are all pretty much in support.  This is also one of the reasons Forsyth Technical Community College in Winston-Salem is the lead institution for the "National Center for the Biotechnology Workforce."  The institution has been recognized for its efforts in retraining workers for positions in this industry.

Website for the National Center for the Biotechnology Workforce

[krazeeboi]

^That's definitely a feather in Winston-Salem's cap.

[nowensone]

krazeeboi, on Mar 25 2007, 10:06 PM, said:

These days, I'm not sure if you can call biotech a "less traditional" industry (although I know what you mean). Everybody and their momma wants in on biotech it seems.

'Everybody and their momma', thanks for the morning laugh.   Yeah, many places are clamoring for high tech industries in general, and I think the Triad would be remiss if it were not making serious efforts in that.  If we can assume this industry in the future will be similar in size and importance to major industries of today then it is simple future oriented common sense.  It is great for the state as a whole that the Triangle has had a ~40 year head start and should be an easier "sell" for efforts in the Triad and CLT to do well given their proximity to the Triangle.

[DCMetroRaleigh]

New figures from the U.S. Census Bureau show that Forsyth County grew at a steady pace from 2006 to 2007, almost matching the North Carolina average of 2.2 percent in year-over-year growth.

The new estimates put Forsyth County’s population at 338,774 as of July 1, 2007, up 2.1 percent from 2006 and up 10.7 percent since the 2000 census.

[cityboi]

looks like Guilford is matching the state

[Beany]

That is cool.  Thanks for sharing.

What about numbers for Alamance, Randolph, and Rockingham?  Do they have those available?

[blburton]

Here you go.... Comes up to about a 2.4% increase for Alamance over the past year... 11.1% since 2000.

County      POPESTIMATE2000 POPEST2001 POPEST2002 POPEST2003 POPEST2004 POPEST2005 POPESTIMATE2006 POPESTIMATE2007
Alamance   131500                  133521       135458        136276        138056       139851     141965                  145360
Randolph 131029                  132264       133312        134423       135274    136938     138674                  140145
Rockingham 91964             92042         92459         92276        91785     91892      92160         92421

Beany, on Mar 20 2008, 03:27 PM, said:

That is cool.  Thanks for sharing.

What about numbers for Alamance, Randolph, and Rockingham?  Do they have those available?

[Creasy336]

2.4% growth in Alamance County  .  We might break 150,000 by the census.  Hopefully this growth will continue to be in the central part of the county between Burlington and Mebane.

[NcSc74]

Creasy336, on Mar 22 2008, 03:51 PM, said:

2.4% growth in Alamance County  .  We might break 150,000 by the census.  Hopefully this growth will continue to be in the central part of the county between Burlington and Mebane.

I am sorry but the future of Alamance looks to be mostly commuter traffic.  It is in the envious spot between to growing metro areas.  I think the east side of the county will outpace the westside as people from the Triangle venture out to find better deals and virgin land.  As for the west side Greensboro has been growing at a nice pace so it has a very stable market so there really isn't a need to invade Alamance at this time.  All of this could change when developers realize what a great location the county is.  Alamance you are the hidden link between the Triad and Triangle.

[JerseyBoy]

NcSc74, on Mar 22 2008, 07:05 PM, said:

All of this could change when developers realize what a great location the county is.  Alamance you are the hidden link between the Triad and Triangle.

I think they already have. The area between Buckhorn Road in Orange County and NC 119 on 40/85 is poised to become a continuation of the strip-mall and cheap retail crap that already exists between University Drive and Maple Avenue. In recent years, you have had a Holiday Inn Express, Cracker Barrel, Ruby Tuesday's, Lowes Home Improvement, Hampton Inn, and an apartment complex open up along NC 119. This in itself has lead to the creation of more starter-home developments in this one particular area. I can't even begin to imagine the growth the new Tanger outlet center and Buckhorn Village will jumpstart in East Alamance.

[DCMetroRaleigh]

SO what is the 2007 population for the Winston-Salem and Greensboro MSAs and CSA?

[krazeeboi]

Greensboro-High Point MSA: 698,497
Winston-Salem MSA: 463,159
Triad CSA: 1,535,926

[blburton]

You'd actually be surprised how many people commute from western Alamance County/eastern Guilford to the Triangle area for work.  I guess the arguement is "what's adding an extra 10 minutes?".  I remember a while back in a post that someone stated that the 85/40 corridor could become the daily gridlock that I-95 is in NoVA.  I doubt this will happen given the sheer number people commuting to the millions of jobs in WDC vs. the Triad and Triangle, combined.  From what I remember, traffic is thick during rush hour, but bearable until you hit western/southwestern Durham on I-40.

NcSc74, on Mar 22 2008, 06:05 PM, said:

I think the east side of the county will outpace the westside as people from the Triangle venture out to find better deals and virgin land.  As for the west side Greensboro has been growing at a nice pace so it has a very stable market so there really isn't a need to invade Alamance at this time.

[Creasy336]

I was the one who was stuck in traffic from DC to Richmond VA with NO accidents on I-95  .  I no longer believe I-85/I-40 will see the same traffic problems that NoVa has simply because of gas prices and the poor economy.  One major factor that causes traffic jams is some functionality problems in traffic flow such as lane reductions and overloaded interchanges.  None of these issues are a problem now.  with 2 I-85/40s going through Greensboro.  Yes traffic is very thick daily between I-840 and the I 85/40 split but it flows.  If Alamance County can ever increase its job base (Honda, Labcorp, someone new?) then traffic might become a problem.  Hopefully Alamance county we'll see commuter rail stations in Gibsonville, Elon, Burlington, and Mebane one day to help out with commutes to Guilford county and the Triangle.  

Quote

I think the east side of the county will outpace the westside as people from the Triangle venture out to find better deals and virgin land. As for the west side Greensboro has been growing at a nice pace so it has a very stable market so there really isn't a need to invade Alamance at this time.

visit eastern Guildford and western Alamance and make sure you drive along US 70, Burlington has already begun or has developed to its annexation agreement line with Greensboro which is roughly right at exit 135.  I know the trend is the opposite of Greensboro invading Burlington but there both related.

Quote

All of this could change when developers realize what a great location the county is. Alamance you are the hidden link between the Triad and Triangle

Visit the town of Swepsonville and Saxaphaw in southwestern Alamance County alot of the growth their is geared towards Orange County commuters.  You'd be suprised at the amount of subdivisions (sprawl) you see while driving down NC 54 towards Chapel Hill.

The one thing that will jump start growth and lead to Mebane growing out of control is the 119 Bypass.  This 4 lane divided road will take people from the subdivisions in north Mebane straight to the interstate as quick as possible.  It will also plow through the wetlands of Graham-Mebane lake, a minority neighborhood in west Mebane, and the Historic Cates Farm.

One good thing that is coming from all of this new growth is the new Alamance Regional Medical Center in Mebane which was is being built mainly because the developer agreed to build it only if the large retail and residential component was approved with it.

Edited by Creasy336, 22 March 2008 - 11:29 PM.

[Beany]

Thanks for the numbers.  I believe Alamance county is going to continue to see more and more growth.  It is well situated.

[JerseyBoy]

I believe I was the one who stated that we could possibly see 40/85 turn into our own smaller version of NoVa's 95. As the Triad (Greensboro specifically) tries to move to a distributing and logistics economy, this will put an even greater amount of trucks and vehicles on this stretch of road. Throw in the fact that this interstate connects us with Atlanta and northern cities as well and you have a fairly busy road at almost all hours of the day. I could realistically see DOT adding 2 more lanes (including HOV) in 2030+ between Mount Hope Church in Guilford and the split in Orange to accomodate more truck and commuter traffic.

You are very right about the growth that is starting to occur along 54. I usually take this road as a shortcut to Chapel Hill and have started to notice subdivisions popping up on what was once farmland.

Creasy336, on Mar 23 2008, 01:28 AM, said:

I was the one who was stuck in traffic from DC to Richmond VA with NO accidents on I-95   .  I no longer believe I-85/I-40 will see the same traffic problems that NoVa has simply because of gas prices and the poor economy.  One major factor that causes traffic jams is some functionality problems in traffic flow such as lane reductions and overloaded interchanges.  None of these issues are a problem now.  with 2 I-85/40s going through Greensboro.  Yes traffic is very thick daily between I-840 and the I 85/40 split but it flows.  If Alamance County can ever increase its job base (Honda, Labcorp, someone new?) then traffic might become a problem.  Hopefully Alamance county we'll see commuter rail stations in Gibsonville, Elon, Burlington, and Mebane one day to help out with commutes to Guilford county and the Triangle.  

visit eastern Guildford and western Alamance and make sure you drive along US 70, Burlington has already begun or has developed to its annexation agreement line with Greensboro which is roughly right at exit 135.  I know the trend is the opposite of Greensboro invading Burlington but there both related.



Visit the town of Swepsonville and Saxaphaw in southwestern Alamance County alot of the growth their is geared towards Orange County commuters.  You'd be suprised at the amount of subdivisions (sprawl) you see while driving down NC 54 towards Chapel Hill.

The one thing that will jump start growth and lead to Mebane growing out of control is the 119 Bypass.  This 4 lane divided road will take people from the subdivisions in north Mebane straight to the interstate as quick as possible.  It will also plow through the wetlands of Graham-Mebane lake, a minority neighborhood in west Mebane, and the Historic Cates Farm.

One good thing that is coming from all of this new growth is the new Alamance Regional Medical Center in Mebane which was is being built mainly because the developer agreed to build it only if the large retail and residential component was approved with it.

[DCMetroRaleigh]

The Greensboro-High Point metro area added 11,740 residents from mid 2006 to mid 2007,  for a gain of 1.7 percent in one year.

The metro area ranked 92nd by percentage of growth and 53rd nationally by actual growth in the number of residents.

The GSO metro area had an estimated population of 698,497 as of July 1, 2007 which ranked 72nd nationally. The Census Bureau’s metro area includes Guilford, Randolph and Rockingham counties.