25 replies to this topic

[CtownMikey]

http://news.yahoo.co..._accuweather_dc

"beotchi also predicted the U.S. Northeast would likely be a target for strong storms for the next 10 years.

"Last year, the Northeast may have dodged a bullet but, unfortunately, you can only be lucky for so long. We are in a pattern similar to that of the late 1930s through the 1940s, when the Northeast was hit by two major storms," he said."

anyone worried?

[Cotuit]

Oh we are long overdue. I'm not scared persay, but I remember Bob, which was really nothing compared to '54 and '38 and I won't take the threat lightly if a storm is on the way.

I like that the person's name in the article is 'beotchi.' They should name a Hurricane beotchi.  

[MadVlad]

I remember Bob and Gloria, Bob because my room-mate at the times name was Bob and he clipped the paper headline "Bob hammers State".  Gloria I was doing my paper route when the eye came over.  During the worst of it, the guy drove by and threw my papers out the window.....

[Recchia]

I had so much fun during Hurricane Bob when I was a little kid.  All six trees left in my neighborhood fell into my backyard making a cool fort for me to play in for a few weeks.  Of course my block had no power for two weeks, so that kinda sucked.

[Lowerdeck]

I'm calling this a slow news day.

Simply put, there is no real way to predict (especially this early) where and when storms are going to develop.  The only thing that can be looked at is water temperatures and other conditions which may make hurricanes more favorable.  2005 was a freak year simply because everything lined up for extreme weather like Katrina, Rita, Wilma, and the other 25 storms of TS strength.

The northeast is overdue to get hit by a major hurricane, even though we should be thankful storms are tamer here than down south.  Even a Cat 3 though can do considerable damage depending on where it hits.  Would be interesting to see the sheer fury, but then it's bad because... now you have to recover from sheer fury.

[CtownMikey]

I was too young to remember hurricane Bob, so I have no clue what kind of damage can be done in the northeast. I imagine it would ruin our beach season though..  how about affecting development in our cities with rising costs like Katrina did?

[Lowerdeck]

CtownMikey, on Mar 28 2007, 06:11 PM, said:

I was too young to remember hurricane Bob, so I have no clue what kind of damage can be done in the northeast. I imagine it would ruin our beach season though..  how about affecting development in our cities with rising costs like Katrina did?

Katrina will never happen in the northeast for two reasons...
1. Hurricanes thrive off warm water.  The colder the water, the more unlikely a strong hurricane will exist.  The waters of the Atlantic off the northeast coast are a bit cooler than in the Gulf of Mexico, due to being much farther north.  There can be something Category 1 or 2 strength no problem.  For a Cat 3 to hit New England, Long Island, or New Jersey... it's much tougher.  It would need to be an incredibly powerful storm off to our south before hand, and moving at a fairly high rate of speed north(east) ... like the Hurricane of 1938.  I can not see a hurricane of strong Category 4 or a Cat 5 status hitting the northeast at all, ever.

2. New Orleans is mostly under sea level, causing all the flooding.  If anything, the worst that could happen is Providence and maybe Boston getting hit with high storm surge, to the scale of what Mobile, Alabama experienced during Katrina.  Anything closer to the center, like in Mississippi with Katrina, is also too unlikely to happen in the northeast.  Storms that come this way aren't strong enough to be epic with 30 foot storm surge.


Hurricane of 1938 is a good benchmark of something extreme for the northeast.   With all the development along the coastlines of New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts ... something similar to 1938 would be very very bad.  The damage won't be as intense as Katrina's, but certainly rival the price tag.

[Tymel]

I kinda want one to hit so I can feel the excitement. But since I live on the South Shore of Long Island, it will cause really bad damage. Since were under sea level I think.

[Lowerdeck]

No part of land in New York state is below sea level.  You're probably barely above sea level, which isn't good when a hurricane barrels across Long Island.  I'm assuming you're not young enough to have remembered Gloria or Bob or some of the storms of recent which blew by this way, huh.  Or perhaps new(er?) to Long Island?

I kinda want to see one too, just see what it's like.  In my fantasy, there's also a magic switch which changes everything back to normal twelve hours after the storm passes.

[Tymel]

No, im to young. (15)
Seeing one will be really exciting. I love walking when its really windy, and when we get thunderstorms on the Island everyone goes crazy.

[Lowerdeck]

Oh man, you missed out on Bob then.  That was the last major one.  And that might have missed you to the west... unless you live in eastern Suffolk.  

I remember that one, that was pretty crazy.  So was Floyd back in 1999, but that was a T.S. as it went by (right over my hometown)

[runawayjim]

while we are long overdue... they predicted the same thing last year, saying we would get one similar to '38.  with weather, it's very hard to accurately predict more than 3-5 days out, even with big storm systems.  hurricanes can easily change paths very quickly and go in a completely different direction than originally thought.  sure, the weather sites give you 8-10 day outlooks, but after the first 5 days, the chances of actually seeing the predicted weather is greatly reduced.  of course the changes depend on where you live.  in the northeast, it changes often.  in southern CA, it's more predictable.  i have basically taken to looking out my window and checking my outdoor thermometer before i go outside to determine what the weather might be.

i remember playing outside during the eye of gloria.  it was eerie and cool... but lots of branches and leaves down.

Edited by runawayjim, 12 June 2007 - 12:06 PM.

[Lowerdeck]

They say every year that a big one can potentially hit New England.  Which is true.  However, it takes certain conditions and a certain trajectory seen like in 1938 for it to happen.  Doesn't happen so often.

[runawayjim]

Lowerdeck, on Jun 12 2007, 02:28 PM, said:

They say every year that a big one can potentially hit New England.  Which is true.  However, it takes certain conditions and a certain trajectory seen like in 1938 for it to happen.  Doesn't happen so often.

right... and every year, there is a chance that it will happen.  i don't like the scaremongering that goes on.  don't make people crazy until there's a reason to be crazy.  it's like the boy who cried wolf... eventually people are going to grow tired of it and ignore it when they shouldn't.

[Cotuit]

If Barry had been later in the season, we'd all be pretty wet right now. Its remains made landfall right around Westerly which would have meant a major surge up the Bay had it been an actual hurricane.

There's something cool about hurricanes for sure, in that rubbernecking kind of way. But I'd be happy to never see a Bob again, and certainly not '38. There's no way make people understand what '38 would mean for us today, utter devastation.

[DBR96A]

I tell you, it's GLOBAL WARMING that's driving this complete lack of hurricane activity!!!

[cloudship]

I am not so sure a hurricane like the one in '38 would be quite as devastating today. Mind you, it would certainly do some damage. But we now can track storms much better, and we would have more advanced notice to prepare for one. In addition, much of our building is stronger these days, and better able to withstand those forces. The biggest problem would be the flooding issue, and those areas immediately along south facing shore. I would not expect as much woodland damage - much of that had to do with the fact that our forests at the time were primarily white pine, which blew down easier than some of our hardwood varieties today. Again, there would still be damage, but I don't think as devastating as that one was.

[Lowerdeck]

While the building codes are a lot better than in 1938, the problem is ... it's still a 100 mph hurricane moving at a very high rate of speed (making the damage potential worse, but for shorter period of time).  The fact there are so many people living on Long Island and in coastal areas of southern New England (Stamford, Bridgeport, New Haven, New London-Groton, Newport, Providence, Fall River, New Bedford, Hyannis) ... it will be devastating to millions of people in some way or form.

[runawayjim]

providence has a hurricane barrier now.  we're all set.        

[davidals]

cloudship, on Jul 31 2007, 04:00 PM, said:

I am not so sure a hurricane like the one in '38 would be quite as devastating today. Mind you, it would certainly do some damage. But we now can track storms much better, and we would have more advanced notice to prepare for one. In addition, much of our building is stronger these days, and better able to withstand those forces. The biggest problem would be the flooding issue, and those areas immediately along south facing shore. I would not expect as much woodland damage - much of that had to do with the fact that our forests at the time were primarily white pine, which blew down easier than some of our hardwood varieties today. Again, there would still be damage, but I don't think as devastating as that one was.

The 38 storm was an unusual event - something of a 'perfect storm' - it had been unusually strong farther south (a Category 5 east of The Bahamas), and though most hurricanes accelerate as they turn north, the '38 storm for whatever reason turned to the northwest moving up the East Coast, thus hitting eastern LI and the Narranganset Bay head-on right before high tide.  Having once been a Category 5 storm, approaching the coast before high tide, and hitting the coast straight-on are all factors that amplify storm surge - it's rare that one hurricane will nail all of those conditions, and rarer still that far up the East Coast.  

As for the odds of something hitting, statistically it's a crapshoot anywhere, so estimating the chances of "x" happening somewhere in any given year is kind of dubious, though it should be noted that eventually a strong hurricane will make another landfall that far north, and a general awareness wouldn't hurt anyone.  

Weather prognostication does have its' hysterical side.