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Ultra Rapid Transit System


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#21 steveraneyC21

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Posted 15 January 2008 - 11:59 PM

Monsoon,




The $50MM figure given was given by the press, and this includes the equity investment by BAA in Advanced Transport Systems, makers of ULTra PRT.  BAA will spend less than $50MM on the Heathrow ULTra system itself.  The costs I gave, $10MM to $15MM per mile, still hold.  





Here are some comments by well-known urban planners about PRT:  




Peter Calthorpe of Calthorpe Associates & Fregonese Calthorpe: We need better transit circulator technology: personal rapid transit:

    <LI class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list .5in">In a six-page paper, <A href="http://www.calthorpe.com/clippings/UrbanNet1216.pdf">http://www.calthorpe.com/clippings/UrbanNet1216.pdf , Calthorpe writes: "All the advantages of New Urbanism - its compact land saving density, its walkable mix of uses, and its integrated range of housing opportunities - would be supported and amplified by a circulation system that offers fundamentally different choices in mobility and access. Smart Growth and new Urbanism have begun the work of redefining America's twenty-first century development paradigms. Now it is time to redefine the circulation armature that supports them. It is short sighted to think that significant changes in land-use and regional structure can be realized without fundamentally reordering our circulation system." <LI class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list .5in">At the CNU '05 conference, Calthorpe said, "One of my pet peeves is that we've been dealing with 19th Century transit technology. We can do better. We can have ultra light elevated transit systems (personal rapid transit) with lightweight vehicles. Because the vehicles are lighter, the system will use less energy. I used to be a PRT skeptic, but now the technology is there. It won't be easy to develop PRT technology and get all the kinks out, but it is doable. If you think about what you'd want from the ideal transit technology, it's PRT: a) stations right where you are, within walking distance, b) no waiting."
  • "We've been building too much TOD without the T.  PRT is the T."
Sir Peter Hall: "The social perception of public transportation depends on the quality of the transportation. I think we may be looking to technological advances in public transportation to create new kinds of personal rapid transit. We had a big breakthrough announced only a week ago that a British system called, literally, PRT, Personal Rapid Transit, is going to be adapted for Heathrow Airport progressively over the next ten years. And when you drive your car into Heathrow to one of the parking lots, you will get your own personal vehicle and program it to go to your terminal, or vice versa. And if this is as successful as I think it will be, this could be a big breakthrough in developing new kinds of totally personalized rapid transit, which could transform our cities in ways that we can't yet see." Dec 15, 2005, Natl Building Museum.

 

#22 cloudship

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Posted 16 January 2008 - 06:19 PM

View PostTrEn, on Jan 15 2008, 11:15 PM, said:

I've seen this argument before, and it doesn't make sense to me. How is this any different than a single woman walking to her automobile in a remote parking lot? I'll tell you how it's different: the remote parking lot is surrounded by other cars where a rapist can hide; the remote parking lot may not be well lit, and will not be covered monitored by surveillence cameras. A PRT station, on the other hand, is not likely located in a remote place; it's well lit; there are no dark corners where a rapist can hide; and there are security cameras.

Furthermore, what rapist would force himself into a vehicle where he is CAPTIVE? Think about it: a rapist would committing a felony in a vehicle which he cannot control and which is taking him to an unknown destination! For all he knows, that vehicle is going to a crowded marketplace where he will be immediately exposed to dozens of witnesses. Hey, it could be going to a station right in front of a police station! He'd have to be incredibly stupid to do something like this.

Compare this to the dark parking lot: once the rapist has forced his way into your automobile, he can gain complete control and go wherever he wants.

So my question is: given these risks, why on earth would a rapist (or any violent criminal) choose PRT over a dark alley or remote parking lot?

Nothing! And that's the point. That's why it is recommended not to park in lonely parking lots at night. But if you have a big parking lot, it's likely there because at some point it isn't lonely and dark. But the parking lot cannot shrink itself when everyone goes home. Same with the PRT. Sometimes those stations are going to be crowded. Sometimes they are going to be empty. THAT''s when the problem starts. Are you going to have someone monitoring every second of every single PRT car? Do you think people would even support that kind of monitoring? And what is to stop the criminal, for whatever crime, from directing the car to someplace else? What makes you think that the victim is going to hop out and suddenly call rape or mugging or anything? I wish people would do that, but one of the big problems with these kinds of crimes is that the victim is scared into saying nothing. I am sorry, but something like this is a very scary thing.

View PostTrEn, on Jan 15 2008, 11:15 PM, said:

You are misunderstanding PRT. There is no allocation in PRT; vehicles go when needed, and stay when not needed. When a vehicle leaves a station with a passenger, the system can automatically send an empty vehicle to that station so that one is available for the next passenger. This is all implicit to PRT control algorithms.

And I confess, I don't understand your argument that increasing the number of cars in use would make PRT "too heavy to be efficient". PRT vehicles are all the same size, and only move in response to demand, so they are equally efficient in heavy volumes as light volumes. It is trains, not PRT, that suffer from off peak inefficiencies due to empty trains.

The problem lies in that you have to have enough vehicles to handle peak demand. This is what makes cars so much of a problem. At peak times you have too many vehicles trying to access the same infrastructure. To even come close to meeting that demand, you have to overbuild for the low periods. The same thing will happen with a PRT - to meet the peak demands, you are going to need more car, and faster through-put. When you fill that need, if you are in the typical commuting environment, you will have a huge system lying idle with lots of vehicles in storage during slow times. Trains can grow and shrink more economically. The problem is that it is sometimes labor intensive to do this on some systems, and complicated to figure out the demands of travel and appropriately staff. So they simply average things out. And the very same could, and very well might, happen to a PRT system. If you are going to go through the trouble to so heavily automate a PRT system, that same kind fo system can have much more impact on a more typical transit solution.

View PostTrEn, on Jan 15 2008, 11:15 PM, said:

PRT will never replace the automobile for most people, and there is nothing about PRT that takes away your ability to own and use a car. But it does give you the option to leave the car at home for certain types of trips. Examples: use PRT for your daily commute, use your car to go to the supermarket. Use PRT to go to dinner downtown; use your car for a day trip out to the country. PRT is complementary to cars and other forms of transit.

And let's face it: as compared to a daily commute in rush hour traffic, PRT would be a compelling alternative: cheaper, potentially faster, and you can read the morning paper instead of trying to merge into an endless line of stopped traffic. And, I might add: PRT is much safer than an automobile.

I am not trying to say there is no place for PRT. I think it makes lots of sense in a large campus type of environment, where there are steady demands and reasonable levels of safety already. But I don't think PRT would work as a commuting alternative, and I don't think it has any real benefit over cars outside of the neatness factor. And we don't know about the safety issue yet. Wait until the first fire or electrical problem.

#23 TrEn

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Posted 16 January 2008 - 08:14 PM

View Postcloudship, on Jan 16 2008, 07:19 PM, said:

I am sorry, but something like this is a very scary thing.

I'll ask again: why would a well lit station with no hiding places and covered by video surveillance attract violent criminals? What criminal in his right mind would force himself into a vehicle on a captive guideway whose only entrance/exit is these well-lit, video patrolled stations? Especially when they can much more easily stalk prey in a remote section of a parking garage, where there are hiding places aplenty and the automobile itself can be used as a getaway.

A criminal would have to be an idiot to choose a PRT station for a violent crime.

Even if PRT were susceptible to violent crime (and I think it's clear that it's not), this would make it no different than subway stations or parking lots.

View Postcloudship, on Jan 16 2008, 07:19 PM, said:

Trains can grow and shrink more economically.

Huh? Are you actually saying it's easier to grow/shrink a train than it would be for idle PRT vehicles to remain in a station? A train's greatest weakness is that it cannot scale for off-peak operation.

Even if you could delink rail cars, the smallest is probably 100 times bigger than a PRT pod, which means off peak operation of trains involves moving the equivalent of 100 pods up and down the line, just in case there happens to be a passenger waiting at one of the stations. Whereas, PRT pods sit in a station idle until needed, and when a passenger arrives, only move 1/100th of the weight that a train would have to move to carry that passenger.

It's not even close. PRT is orders of magnitude more efficient than trains in low peak times.

Quote

And we don't know about the safety issue yet. Wait until the first fire or electrical problem.

Every day thousands of trains, buses, subways and cars carry billions of people, and the incidence of fire/electrical problems is exceedingly rare, except when triggered by a collision. There is no reason to believe that a PRT system built with the same kinds of components would be any more susceptible to such issues, especially since PRT control algorithms eliminate collisions.

This is yet another example of people fearing something they have no direct experience with. PRT is just an automated electric car on a guideway, yet people seem to think it will be fraught with hidden dangers. Meanwhile, they are driving an automobile that is proven to be far and away the most dangerous form of transportation. It's textbook irrational fear of the unknown.

Edited by TrEn, 16 January 2008 - 08:16 PM.


#24 monsoon

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Posted 16 January 2008 - 09:18 PM

If one looks at this rendering it immediately shows the shortcomings of this concept.   Imagine each of those automobiles replaced by a PRT car on a track.  All you have done is move the congestion, inefficient use of resources and expensive vehicles off the street and on to a more confining and restrictive track.    Instead of wasting money on something like this, light rail would be a much better choice.  

I don't understand why it is a good idea to move all these vehicles onto a track.  It doesn't solve any problems.    

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#25 steveraneyC21

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Posted 16 January 2008 - 09:58 PM

Says Monsoon:
If one looks at this rendering it immediately shows the shortcomings of this concept. Imagine each of those automobiles replaced by a PRT car on a track. All you have done is move the congestion, inefficient use of resources and expensive vehicles off the street and on to a more confining and restrictive track. Instead of wasting money on something like this, light rail would be a much better choice.
I don't understand why it is a good idea to move all these vehicles onto a track. It doesn't solve any problems.

Monsoon,

Did you see the quotes by Calthorpe and Sir Peter Hall?  These people might not be as smart as you, but they have very strong professional reputations and they went to school for a long time and they wrote alot of books that a bunch of people read and their books are ranked as some of the all-time Top 50 by Planetizen. I think it says alot that they believe in PRT.  It's pretty interesting to see Calthorpe hammer on 19th century LRT technology.  He's saying that LRT is a bad choice for circulator applications (this is because LRT provides low LOS in such situations). He's not saying that LRT is always bad, but he's saying that he needs really great circulator technology to create great smart growth / new urbanist places.    

I have the impression that you are pretty intelligent and a good problem solver.  I believe you could answer some of these PRT questions yourself.  Also, I don't think you're giving the PRT industry much credit for solving the issues you raise.  Anyone who considers working on a PRT project has to figure out decent answers to your questions before they take on PRT as a vocation - the point is that it's very hard come up with any novel objections to PRT that haven't been addressed via design - the large set of PRT issues is quite well known.  If PRT is such a dumb idea, why are smart people working on it?  

1. Taxis make multiple trips per day, cars used in commuting sit there for 10 hours being unproductive.  PRT works by that same, more-productive-than-a-car-that-sits-around taxi analogy.  Hence, PRT vehicles are much more productive than cars.  

2A. For carpool commuting, let's look at a 3 person carpool.  One car carrying 3 people comes to a big job center and parks, and two out of the 3 commuters distributes themselves to their offices via PRT.  At lunchtime, the 3 workers may take PRT to go get lunch, zoom over to the gym, go shopping, etc.  So, in this example, we've saved 2 cars from coming to the job center.  

2B. For transit commutes, folks indicate that, if a great last mile solution exists, they're more willing to solve their first mile solution.  So, in the instance where PRT entices folks to commute via "first mile - line haul transit (including LRT) - PRT last mile," a car is saved in each instance.  

Here's a peer-reviewed paper on PRT as part of a comprehensive mobility solution to get commuters out of their cars: Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, Suburban Silver Bullet: PRT Shuttle and Wireless Commute Assistant with Cellular Location Tracking, TRB, National Research Council, Washington, DC, Number 1872, December 2004, pp. 62-70. http://www.cities21...._111503_web.pdf




#26 monsoon

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Posted 16 January 2008 - 10:13 PM

^If those people wish to come here and respond to my points then they are more than welcome.  But none of the basic problems I have listed have been addressed which I find typical of alternative but exotic transit technology advocacy.     At best, and as mentioned above, one of these things might have some use at a airport of possibly a college campus but even that sounds unlikely due to the cost.  PRT is not suitable as a municipal transit system.   It fails on the cost issue, efficiency issue, and on the social levels as well.  

As far as the "last mile" goes, that can be solved by a park and ride lot, bike lanes, and village riders.    It's much much less expensive, more practical and in most of the USA the only alternative that is going to be built.  I can't imagine that any municipal government would consider PRT as a serious contender for their very limited transit dollars.

#27 TrEn

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Posted 16 January 2008 - 10:28 PM

View Postmonsoon, on Jan 16 2008, 10:18 PM, said:

I don't understand why it is a good idea to move all these vehicles onto a track. It doesn't solve any problems.

If you don't understand, then I will be happy to explain it to you. :rolleyes:

The basic reason for the track is that it facilitates automated control - automated solutions that run on regular roads are a much more difficult technological problem, whereas control algorithms for dedicated, segregated guideways are much simpler. In fact, the problem of automated control of vehicles on a fixed guideway is essentially solved. PRT pioneer JE Anderson has published detailed, peer reviewed academic papers on this topic. It's simple physics.

Roads, on the other hand, have too many variables for an automated system to work. Road navigation is a distinctly human trait that is very difficult and error prone to automate. Sure, we're starting to see baby steps in that direction - self-parking automobiles are an example - but the leap from self parking car to fully automated automobile operating in highway traffic is huge. We won't see anything like it in the next 20 years, at least. So if you want full automation, you need a guideway. And full automation is the only way to provide automobile-like convenience for a reasonable cost in a public system. Taxis come close - they are a public system that provide automobile-like convenience - but they are very expensive because they require a driver, and therefore only accessible to the wealthy.

A side benefit of the segregated track is that it leaves the street level to pedestrians -which is much safer and would enhance walkability in cities.

You must also understand that a single PRT guideway, even operating at low speeds and moderate headways, has significantly more capacity than a single lane on a city street. This is because control algorithms can automatically optimize and reroute traffic - there are no stop signs or traffic signals in PRT, because the control algorithms know where every single vehicle is located down to an inch resolution, and can fully utilize every inch of guideway capacity.

Intersections restrict road traffic so much that freeways were introduced into the road network in order to support demand. Because of the lack of intersections, the carrying capacity of a freeway is much higher than a city street, but freeways also have this minor little drawback that they destroy the fabric of cities. So for the automobile, you have two choices: plain old city streets that are gridlocked because they can't handle all the traffic, or freeways that decimate neighborhoods into oblivion.

So you have a city like Boston which, when faced with the choice of freeways or gridlock, instead chose to bury all their freeways underground - a solution that seemed really innovative until the endless construction problems pushed costs to absurd levels - tens of billions of dollars!

Other cities try to do it with rail, and have some limited success - but we all know that people in huge numbers will choose their car over rail because of the convenience factor. Rail helps, no doubt, but the automobile still wins by a long shot. Even in dense cities like NYC with great rail networks, auto traffic is bad.

Now consider PRT. A single guideway running at moderate speeds and headways can provide nearly the capacity of a freeway lane while barely touching the street. If the guideway network density is high (a guideway every few blocks) you can achieve the equivalent capacity of a full fledged freeway network criss-crossing the city without any impact to the street level. Furthermore, parking needs (another huge problem in cities) are vastly reduced because PRT vehicles are constantly reused - and can be automatically stowed away in a remote storage facility when demand is low.

So a well developed PRT network provides the capacity of a freeway, the convenience of a private automobile, no parking requirements, no impact to pedestrians or bicyclists, ubiquitous availability for anyone who can afford a $1 fare, very low operating costs that can be supported fully by fares, zero local emissions, accessibility for the disabled, and better safety and energy efficiency than any other mode of transportation.

And, furthermore: many studies (even by PRT critics!) have shown that people would be willing to abandon their cars for PRT in record numbers - some estimate that 30% or more of automobile drivers would switch to PRT for their daily commute. Compare this to other transit options which rarely attract even 5% from their cars.

People, this is not marketing fluff - dozens of independent research groups have studied PRT for 4 decades and have all come to these same conclusions, while nobody has yet disproved a single one of these claims.

Does this answer your question as to the problems that PRT solves?

Edited by TrEn, 16 January 2008 - 10:34 PM.


#28 cloudship

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Posted 16 January 2008 - 10:47 PM

View PoststeveraneyC21, on Jan 16 2008, 10:58 PM, said:

Says Monsoon:
If one looks at this rendering it immediately shows the shortcomings of this concept. Imagine each of those automobiles replaced by a PRT car on a track. All you have done is move the congestion, inefficient use of resources and expensive vehicles off the street and on to a more confining and restrictive track. Instead of wasting money on something like this, light rail would be a much better choice.
I don't understand why it is a good idea to move all these vehicles onto a track. It doesn't solve any problems.

Monsoon,

Did you see the quotes by Calthorpe and Sir Peter Hall?  These people might not be as smart as you, but they have very strong professional reputations and they went to school for a long time and they wrote alot of books that a bunch of people read and their books are ranked as some of the all-time Top 50 by Planetizen. I think it says alot that they believe in PRT.  It's pretty interesting to see Calthorpe hammer on 19th century LRT technology.  He's saying that LRT is a bad choice for circulator applications (this is because LRT provides low LOS in such situations). He's not saying that LRT is always bad, but he's saying that he needs really great circulator technology to create great smart growth / new urbanist places.    

I have the impression that you are pretty intelligent and a good problem solver.  I believe you could answer some of these PRT questions yourself.  Also, I don't think you're giving the PRT industry much credit for solving the issues you raise.  Anyone who considers working on a PRT project has to figure out decent answers to your questions before they take on PRT as a vocation - the point is that it's very hard come up with any novel objections to PRT that haven't been addressed via design - the large set of PRT issues is quite well known.  If PRT is such a dumb idea, why are smart people working on it?  

1. Taxis make multiple trips per day, cars used in commuting sit there for 10 hours being unproductive.  PRT works by that same, more-productive-than-a-car-that-sits-around taxi analogy.  Hence, PRT vehicles are much more productive than cars.  

2A. For carpool commuting, let's look at a 3 person carpool.  One car carrying 3 people comes to a big job center and parks, and two out of the 3 commuters distributes themselves to their offices via PRT.  At lunchtime, the 3 workers may take PRT to go get lunch, zoom over to the gym, go shopping, etc.  So, in this example, we've saved 2 cars from coming to the job center.  

2B. For transit commutes, folks indicate that, if a great last mile solution exists, they're more willing to solve their first mile solution.  So, in the instance where PRT entices folks to commute via "first mile - line haul transit (including LRT) - PRT last mile," a car is saved in each instance.  

Here's a peer-reviewed paper on PRT as part of a comprehensive mobility solution to get commuters out of their cars: Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, Suburban Silver Bullet: PRT Shuttle and Wireless Commute Assistant with Cellular Location Tracking, TRB, National Research Council, Washington, DC, Number 1872, December 2004, pp. 62-70. http://www.cities21...._111503_web.pdf




#29 TrEn

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Posted 16 January 2008 - 11:11 PM

View Postmonsoon, on Jan 16 2008, 11:13 PM, said:

^If those people wish to come here and respond to my points then they are more than welcome. But none of the basic problems I have listed have been addressed which I find typical of alternative but exotic transit technology advocacy.

Um, have you read any of our replies? Steve and I have responded to every single one of your concerns with detailed, research-backed replies. If you have specific objections to any of it, then say so, but all you've provided is vague generalizations like "it's not efficient", even as we've explained to you (in detail, with references) that your conceptions are wrong.

Let's start with the efficiency point: I believe I addressed efficiency earlier in this thread, and you didn't respond to my points, yet you still say PRT is inefficient. Here is a research paper by JE Anderson which outlines the case for PRT efficiency. I can elaborate on more if you like, but the basic issue is this: PRT scales down as well as it scales up. Rail transit is fine during peak times, but is abysmally inefficient off-hours. This is why trains run at reduced schedules at night and on weekends.

In essence, PRT is so efficient at providing off-peak service that it is overall much more efficient that rail or buses. So even though trains and buses might be a little more efficient than PRT when packed full in rush hour, they are so inefficient at other times that PRT wins out overall. And PRT does it while providing round-the-clock no-wait service that no train or bus could ever provide except in the most dense neighborhoods - and even then at a huge cost.

If you have specific objections to these claims, then lets debate them here. But as long as you continue to dismiss these arguments with no counter argument of your own, we'll just go continue to around in circles.

#30 tobias

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Posted 10 April 2008 - 02:50 PM

Does anyone have any experience with this company?
http://www.taxi2000.com/
It is also called Sky Web Express.




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