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New 2007 Census Estimates Are Out


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#1 johnatl

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Posted 27 March 2008 - 11:59 AM

Didn't see this posted anywhere, so please forgive me if this is a dupe. Thought you all would be interested in these numbers.

Tallahassee MSA is now at 352,319! Add in Thomasville's 45,237 and the combined total is at 397,556. Not sure why the Feds don't consider it part of your Metro, but I guess not enough (25%) commute into Tally from Thomas County.

Other interesting figures:
Jacksonville - 1,300,823
Pensacola - 453,451
Ocala - 324,857
Gainesville - 257,099
Fort Walton Beach/Destin - 181,499
Panama City - 163,984
Lake City - 67,985

Link:http://www.census.gov/population/www/estimates/metro_general/2007/CBSA-EST2007-01.xls

 

#2 Florida

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Posted 27 March 2008 - 02:04 PM

Great #s! Thanks for sharing!

#3 TD

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Posted 27 March 2008 - 02:27 PM

View PostFlorida, on Mar 27 2008, 04:04 PM, said:

Great #s! Thanks for sharing!

cool :)

#4 SkyDave

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Posted 27 March 2008 - 06:58 PM

The City or County should petition the feds to include both Thomas County and Grady County Ga. If the commute numbers don't add up, then maybe we could make a case based on retail, health-care, and transportation services (Regional Airport).  I believe surpassing the 400,000 MSA threshold is important in our march toward a 500,000 MSA in ten years.

#5 TD

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Posted 27 March 2008 - 09:32 PM

View PostSkyDave, on Mar 27 2008, 08:58 PM, said:

The City or County should petition the feds to include both Thomas County and Grady County Ga. If the commute numbers don't add up, then maybe we could make a case based on retail, health-care, and transportation services (Regional Airport).  I believe surpassing the 400,000 MSA threshold is important in our march toward a 500,000 MSA in ten years.

This assumption goes with the school of thought that bigger numbers is better

Edited by TD, 27 March 2008 - 09:33 PM.


#6 jpl02

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Posted 27 March 2008 - 10:43 PM

I don't like relying on the U.S. Census data.

The Bureau of Economic & Business Research (BEBR) at the University of Florida puts out their own population projections for counties in Florida, and from experience, they're much more accurate than the U.S. Census, since BEBR projections take into account state and local influences on population growth.

At DCA, we require that counties and cities use BEBR data when making population projections for the future, simply because they're better projections. The U.S. Census has almost always underestimated growth in Florida. If counties relied on their projections, we'd be in deep trouble :)

#7 poonther

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Posted 11 April 2008 - 09:58 AM

The US Census estimate have our metro population figures for '07 at 352,319 as johnatl has stated above.  They state that since 2000 we've grown 9%.

On the other hand,  jpl02's preferred choice of the BEBR (and mine) shows that in '07 Tally metro had a population of 366,205 and that we have grown 14.3% since 2000.

That's a difference of 14k people...or almost twice the population or our neighboring county Liberty.

#8 poonther

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Posted 28 April 2008 - 10:06 AM

The new July 2007 metro population estimates are out and Tally Metro(Leon, Gadsden, Wakulla counties) now officially has a population of 352,319. That's 32,015 more people than we had in the area in the year 2000.

We grew 10% during that time period and now are the 139th largest MSA out of 369 in the USA. That's up from 141th in 2000.

To me it's interesting to note that many of the surrounding Metros grew by almost the same percent during that time period:

P'cola Metro grew by 10% also for a total pop. of 453K
Panama City Metro by 10.6% for a total pop. of 163K
Gainesville Metro by 10.6% also for a total pop. of 257K
Fort Walton Metro by only 6.5% for a total pop. of 181K
Valdosta Metro by 8.9% for a total pop of 130K
Dothan Metro by 6.6% for a total pop of 139K

The big growers in our region are:

Jax who grew by 15.9% for a total of 1.3 million. This percentage growth was no doubt helped by one of the fastest growing counties in the US, St. Johns (St. Augustine)

Ocala who grew by whopping 25.5% for a total population of 324K.

ON EDIT:  I noticed in my post above that when I manually calculated our metro's population I came up w/366k and now the official reports states we have 352K.  It appears to me that they've taken Jefferson County away from our metro. b/c Jeff.'s County population is exactly the difference between those two numbers.  

Was anyone else aware of Jeff. being removed?

Edited by poonther, 28 April 2008 - 10:12 AM.


#9 bighardrivesrule

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Posted 28 April 2008 - 10:31 AM

View Postpoonther, on Apr 28 2008, 12:06 PM, said:

The new July 2007 metro population estimates are out and Tally Metro(Leon, Gadsden, Wakulla counties) now officially has a population of 352,319. That's 32,015 more people than we had in the area in the year 2000.

We grew 10% during that time period and now are the 139th largest MSA out of 369 in the USA. That's up from 141th in 2000.

To me it's interesting to note that many of the surrounding Metros grew by almost the same percent during that time period:

P'cola Metro grew by 10% also for a total pop. of 453K
Panama City Metro by 10.6% for a total pop. of 163K
Gainesville Metro by 10.6% also for a total pop. of 257K
Fort Walton Metro by only 6.5% for a total pop. of 181K
Valdosta Metro by 8.9% for a total pop of 130K
Dothan Metro by 6.6% for a total pop of 139K

The big growers in our region are:

Jax who grew by 15.9% for a total of 1.3 million. This percentage growth was no doubt helped by one of the fastest growing counties in the US, St. Johns (St. Augustine)

Ocala who grew by whopping 25.5% for a total population of 324K.

ON EDIT:  I noticed in my post above that when I manually calculated our metro's population I came up w/366k and now the official reports states we have 352K.  It appears to me that they've taken Jefferson County away from our metro. b/c Jeff.'s County population is exactly the difference between those two numbers.  

Was anyone else aware of Jeff. being removed?

There not in our area but very similiar metro anyway. Mongtomgery grew by only 5.61% during the same time period for a total of 365,962. We have been gaining on them for years.

Edited by bighardrivesrule, 28 April 2008 - 10:31 AM.


#10 poonther

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Posted 28 April 2008 - 10:49 AM

^Yeah I was thinking about including MGM too since they are about the same size and a Capital City. We would already be bigger than them this year, if we still had Jefferson County.

MGM metro's biggest problem is that their core county, Montgomery only grew by 1% during that time period and they definitely are not at build out in that county. However their suburban counties grew by 14% to 17%. Nothing wrong w/fast growing suburban counties but you want your core to grow too to make a healthy metro IMHO.

In our metro, Leon grew by 9%, Gadsden by 5% and Wakulla by 30% making them one of the top 100 fastest growing counties in the US.

For the health of our metro, while I understand Leon's growth will probably always be in the single digits, I hope it does not become stagnant or decline.

BTW when listing area metros, I forgot Albany, GA.  They have a metro population of 164K and grew only by 3.9%..definitely the smallest gain in our region.  I believe based on these trends, Valdosta is setting itself up to become the top metro in South GA.  I'm sure I-75 and VSU have a lot to do w/that.

Edited by poonther, 28 April 2008 - 11:39 AM.


#11 Go Gators

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Posted 28 April 2008 - 11:36 AM

View Postpoonther, on Apr 28 2008, 12:06 PM, said:

The new July 2007 metro population estimates are out and Tally Metro(Leon, Gadsden, Wakulla counties) now officially has a population of 352,319. That's 32,015 more people than we had in the area in the year 2000.

We grew 10% during that time period and now are the 139th largest MSA out of 369 in the USA. That's up from 141th in 2000.

To me it's interesting to note that many of the surrounding Metros grew by almost the same percent during that time period:

P'cola Metro grew by 10% also for a total pop. of 453K
Panama City Metro by 10.6% for a total pop. of 163K
Gainesville Metro by 10.6% also for a total pop. of 257K
Fort Walton Metro by only 6.5% for a total pop. of 181K
Valdosta Metro by 8.9% for a total pop of 130K
Dothan Metro by 6.6% for a total pop of 139K

The big growers in our region are:

Jax who grew by 15.9% for a total of 1.3 million. This percentage growth was no doubt helped by one of the fastest growing counties in the US, St. Johns (St. Augustine)

Ocala who grew by whopping 25.5% for a total population of 324K.

ON EDIT:  I noticed in my post above that when I manually calculated our metro's population I came up w/366k and now the official reports states we have 352K.  It appears to me that they've taken Jefferson County away from our metro. b/c Jeff.'s County population is exactly the difference between those two numbers.  

Was anyone else aware of Jeff. being removed?

Thanks for the numbers, Poonther.  

Its truly unreal how fast Ocala continues to grow.  Why do you think that is?  Do people see it as the anti-Orlando in terms of not having to live there but only being an hour and a half (tops) away from the benefits of it?

#12 bighardrivesrule

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Posted 28 April 2008 - 11:54 AM

View Postpoonther, on Apr 28 2008, 12:06 PM, said:

The new July 2007 metro population estimates are out and Tally Metro(Leon, Gadsden, Wakulla counties) now officially has a population of 352,319. That's 32,015 more people than we had in the area in the year 2000.

We grew 10% during that time period and now are the 139th largest MSA out of 369 in the USA. That's up from 141th in 2000.

To me it's interesting to note that many of the surrounding Metros grew by almost the same percent during that time period:

P'cola Metro grew by 10% also for a total pop. of 453K
Panama City Metro by 10.6% for a total pop. of 163K
Gainesville Metro by 10.6% also for a total pop. of 257K
Fort Walton Metro by only 6.5% for a total pop. of 181K
Valdosta Metro by 8.9% for a total pop of 130K
Dothan Metro by 6.6% for a total pop of 139K

The big growers in our region are:

Jax who grew by 15.9% for a total of 1.3 million. This percentage growth was no doubt helped by one of the fastest growing counties in the US, St. Johns (St. Augustine)

Ocala who grew by whopping 25.5% for a total population of 324K.

ON EDIT:  I noticed in my post above that when I manually calculated our metro's population I came up w/366k and now the official reports states we have 352K.  It appears to me that they've taken Jefferson County away from our metro. b/c Jeff.'s County population is exactly the difference between those two numbers.  

Was anyone else aware of Jeff. being removed?

The last times there were any change as to the make up of our MSA it was done after censuses were conducted eg 1990 & 2000. So with that said it seems that they would wait until the next census in 2010.

Wiki for what its worth.

http://en.wikipedia....ahassee,_FL_MSA

http://en.wikipedia....atistical_Areas

Edited by bighardrivesrule, 28 April 2008 - 12:06 PM.


#13 Glenn

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Posted 28 April 2008 - 11:06 PM

^ Poonther, Thanks so much for providing us with the census numbers & comparisons.  Don't you think Ocala's explosive growth is tied to the growth of The Villages area & all the new spin-off communities surrounding it that seem to be moving North into Southern portions of Marion County?  That's my guess anyway.

#14 plgt8

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Posted 28 April 2008 - 11:24 PM

View Postpoonther, on Apr 28 2008, 11:06 AM, said:

ON EDIT:  I noticed in my post above that when I manually calculated our metro's population I came up w/366k and now the official reports states we have 352K.  It appears to me that they've taken Jefferson County away from our metro. b/c Jeff.'s County population is exactly the difference between those two numbers.  

Was anyone else aware of Jeff. being removed?


When I was originally wading through these numbers last month, it seemed to work perfectly with Jefferson County in it:

(using US Census Annual Estimates of the Population for Counties of Florida: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2007)

Leon County   - 260,945
Gadsden Cnty -  47,197
Wakulla Cnty -   29,726
Jefferson Cnty - 14,451

Total = 352,319

#15 plgt8

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Posted 28 April 2008 - 11:55 PM

Also while playing with those numbers for everything in the panhandle, I came up with these groupings for the pure hell of it:

The "plgt8 Tallahassee Greater Metro Region" :  
     (Normal Tally MSA of Leon, Gadsden, Wakulla & Jefferson + Liberty Cnty, Franklin Cnty, Taylor Cnty,
     Madison Cnty, Grady CntyGEO, Thomas Cnty GEO...and hell, let's throw in Decatur for fun)

     = 507,751 (as of July 1, 2007)


The "plgt8 'Panama City Greater Metro Region" :
     (Normal PC MSA of Bay Cnty + 'Washington Cnty, Gulf Cnty, Calhoun Cnty & Jackson Cnty)

     = 263,810 (as of July 1, 2007)


The "plgt8 FWB/Crestvie/Destin Greater Metro Region" :
     (Normal Okaloosa Cnty MSA + 'Walton Cnty & Holmes Cnty)

     = 253,625 (as of July 1, 2007)


The "plgt8 Pensacola Greater Metro Region" :
     (Normal Pensa MSA of Escambia & Santa Rosa Cnty + Baldwin Cnty, AL (yeah yeah, we share that one with Mobile workers))

     = 625,220 (as of July 1, 2007)


OH WELL, its fun playing.     ;)

#16 poonther

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Posted 29 April 2008 - 10:04 AM

View Postplgt8, on Apr 29 2008, 01:24 AM, said:

When I was originally wading through these numbers last month, it seemed to work perfectly with Jefferson County in it:

(using US Census Annual Estimates of the Population for Counties of Florida: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2007)

Leon County - 260,945
Gadsden Cnty - 47,197
Wakulla Cnty - 29,726
Jefferson Cnty - 14,451

Total = 352,319
plgt8 glad to have you here again and good call.  You are CORRECT, Jefferson County IS included in those metro numbers.  The first time I hand calculated the numbers, I must have had a major and all too common for me brain fart and added the Jeff. population twice.  

Just FYI:  I love statistics and census data etc, but I am terrible at math as you can see. :)

I'm sorry Jefferson County that I thought you were gone from our Metro, please forgive me! :wub:

For clarification purposes, Tally Metro includes the following counties:  Leon, Gadsden, Wakulla and Jefferson Counties.

That solution makes a lot more sense to me too BHDR b/c like you I thought they only changed metro makes up w/the real census done every ten years.

plgt8 your greater metro numbers are almost what they call the Market Areas for each city.  I like what you've done.  If I had to make some changes, here's what I'd suggest:

I'd remove Holmes County (Bonifay) from the FWB area and put it in PC b/c IMHO Bonifay folks trade and work more in PC than FWB.

I would add Covington County, AL (Florala, Andalusia) to the FWB area since they tend to do a lot of working and trading in Crestview and FWB.

Finally I'd just merge Santa Rosa, Escambia, Baldwin and Mobile counties into one big CMSA and I'd throw in Escambia County, AL (Atmore, Brewton, Flomation) and Washington County, AL (Chatom, AL) into the mix.  Possibly a Miss. County or two...what do you think?  I believe in our lifetimes we'll see Mobile and P'cola merge into one big CMSA and it may include the FWB area too...what do you think?

Edited by poonther, 29 April 2008 - 10:06 AM.


#17 poonther

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Posted 29 April 2008 - 10:59 AM

GG & Glenn you guys know the answer to your Ocala/Marion question:

"Different Pace, Better Place!"

How do you guys like that slogan?  Do you think it would have been appropriate for Tally/Leon?

IMHO Ocala owes it's rapid growth to many reasons.  One, it use to be one of the least expensive metros in the state to live.  Marion County makes permitting very easy and fast and they are definitely pro-business.  Have you guys noticed along I-75 all the new business that have located there in the past few years especially between the SR 200 exit and the US 27 exit?  Also not a knock on the area, but you can put up those ever popular 55+ mobile home parks pretty quickly.

I think Ocala's proximity to Orlando definitely helps, but MCO sure is on the wrong-side of town for them.  I've heard Ocala wants to start their own commercial airport.  I think what they should do is build one on the Marion/Alachua County line and let it serve G'ville and Ocala.  But I've heard that G'ville doesn't want to do this and give up their commercial airport on the northside of town.  If there were ever two different sister cities in our state, it would be Ocala and G'ville....one's young, educated and white collar; the other is much older, less educated  and more blue collar.

The (Stepford) Villages has had a lot to do w/the growth of Ocala and Leesburg, but both were growing before it came into the picture.  Most of The Village's population actually lives and will live in Sumter County.

Another bonus for Ocala is that they are close to great health-care at Shands and the hospitals in Orlando.  That really helps w/an aging population.  Finally I think that small-town Southerners and Midwesterners identify and feel safer retiring in Ocala than the big city of Orlando.

Those are my thoughts on the subject...yours?

#18 plgt8

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Posted 30 April 2008 - 07:43 PM

View Postpoonther, on Apr 29 2008, 11:04 AM, said:

[Finally I'd just merge Santa Rosa, Escambia, Baldwin and Mobile counties into one big CMSA and I'd throw in Escambia County, AL (Atmore, Brewton, Flomation) and Washington County, AL (Chatom, AL) into the mix.  Possibly a Miss. County or two...what do you think?  I believe in our lifetimes we'll see Mobile and P'cola merge into one big CMSA and it may include the FWB area too...what do you think?

Thanks for the welcome back poonther.  My time to play comes and goes except I cheat often.   :blush:   I figured there was probably other groupings that dealt with bigger areas like those, but I'm sorta new at taking an interest in these crazy stats.  Your suggestions regarding moving Holmes to PC area, adding some southern Ala counties, etc sounds "sound" to me.  I didn't put a great deal of thought into my groupings other than the area be contiguous, somewhat dependant on each other and all panhandle counties addressed one way or another.

Regarding Mobile, I was pretty surprised to find out that their official MSA is Mobile County alone right now.  If I were guessing, I'd think that the "powers that be" who determine this stuff are taking a wait and see apporach to the whole Gulf Coast area between the Miss/Louis. line and P'cola waiting to see if it seperates into more noticeable distinct groups or just melds into one glob.  For instance, on a quick glance it would seem obvious that fast growing (22.3% between 2000-'07) Baldwin Cnty, AL should be in Mobile's MSA considering the masses that cross that bridge every morning from the Eastern Shore to work in Mobile.  And Mobile is the impetus for inspiring most all the growth in the western to central 2/3 of the county.  But it get's a bit confusing when you get to the eastern side and beaches as it seems to grow (at a smaller rate) as an extension of people sprawling out of P'cola still heading into Escambia county every day.  Of course I'm leaving out the not so small number people who just move there to live indepentently in that county.  So I guess the census folks are just waiting to see how that and other areas around Mobile define themselves more conclusively before lumping things together.   All my opinion and guesses as a newbie to the process of course.

BTW, here is a quick surprising stat from a recent "Mobile IEDC Statistical Abtract":
  Commuting into Area for Work:
     Escambia Cnty, FL    25,117
     Mobile Cnty, AL        21,115
     Santa Rosa, FL           7,372
     Baldwin Cnty, AL        6,990

I wish it was further broke down by which counties each get their commuters.  But I thought it was an interesting stat.  I have no idea where all those people work over here, ha ha ha.

Edited by plgt8, 30 April 2008 - 07:54 PM.


#19 Glenn

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Posted 30 April 2008 - 09:03 PM

^ ^ Wow, 60,000 +?...that's sure is a lot of commuters!  Like you plgt8, I also find myself wondering where all those commuters work over there?

#20 plgt8

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Posted 30 April 2008 - 09:58 PM

View PostGlenn, on Apr 30 2008, 10:03 PM, said:

^ ^ Wow, 60,000 +?...that's sure is a lot of commuters!  Like you plgt8, I also find myself wondering where all those commuters work over there?


Let me clarify those numbers because I think I've unintentionally steered you wrong by not being more specific of what the chart meant....

Those are commmuters incoming into the county I've listed.  For instance, Esc. Cnty, FL has 25,117 coming in daily and (what I didn't provide) 13,333 leaving county to commute to work.  Mobile Cnty. has 21,115 incoming and 13,228 leaving.  This is year 2000 stats.  

Santa Rosa has 7,372 incoming and 28,714 leaving (wow).  Baldwin has 6,990 incoming and 17,004 leaving each morning (this is the one most interesting to me...how many head to Mobile and how many to Pensacola?).

It'd be great if it were further broken down to what counties the incoming/outoing are coming from/driving to specifically in order to better understand the relationships between the counties, dependancies, etc.  I'm sure it's all buried somewhere in the census info, but I'm not prepared to go digging for it now.

Edited by plgt8, 30 April 2008 - 10:01 PM.





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