5 replies to this topic

[nuplanner]

Interesting articale about suburbs.  Something that we have been talking about in the Planning realm for a while now.

http://www.theatlant...200803/subprime

What does this mean from the edge cities?  Do you think this will happen here over time, or will growth continue like everyone is expecting and push out even more?

[MJLO]

nuplanner, on Apr 9 2008, 12:42 PM, said:

Interesting articale about suburbs.  Something that we have been talking about in the Planning realm for a while now.

http://www.theatlant...200803/subprime

What does this mean from the edge cities?  Do you think this will happen here over time, or will growth continue like everyone is expecting and push out even more?

It's hard to say, really.   I can't possibly picture, queen creek becoming a suburban wasteland with crime and subsidized housing.  Suburbs are still growing rapidly, and the examples that were sited had to have been somewhat of a hyperbole.  Look around you, do you see any examples of your suburb turning into a ghost town?  It's good for the central cities tho for sure, who have suffered, even Phoenix itself had a downturn in the core and is struggling to get it back over the years.  Light Rail really is the key.  Cities left without it in the future will be at a serious competitive disadvantage.

[silverbear]

nuplanner, on Apr 9 2008, 01:42 PM, said:

Interesting articale about suburbs.  Something that we have been talking about in the Planning realm for a while now.

http://www.theatlant...200803/subprime

What does this mean from the edge cities?  Do you think this will happen here over time, or will growth continue like everyone is expecting and push out even more?

I think this article is a case of a pundit's predictions reflecing what he wants to be true more than what the evidence supports. In many ways, I'd love to see our cities become more like European cities in which the core is prosperous and whatever slums exist are in a suburban ring. This is the exact opposite of the pattern followed by most American cities since WWII. Nevertheless, I wouldn't bet on that occurring in a sudden, dramatic fashion. I think that rising petroleum prices will make urban cores more attractive, but I don't know if we'll really see such a drastic ghetto-ization of outer suburbs. Most predictions that dramatic tend to be overstated.

Edited by silverbear, 20 April 2008 - 07:38 AM.

[MJLO]

never say never, i guess.  I imagine there will always be a market for suburban living, even while central cores have gained momentum and have taken off.  The suburbs still remain the by far easiest to raise a family, it's way to easy to load three kids in the back of the minivan, instead of getting them all in the elevator, to the bus.  All while carrying your groceries and managing where the kids are.

[cueball1914]

MJLO, on Apr 20 2008, 01:34 PM, said:

never say never, i guess. I imagine there will always be a market for suburban living, even while central cores have gained momentum and have taken off. The suburbs still remain the by far easiest to raise a family, it's way to easy to load three kids in the back of the minivan, instead of getting them all in the elevator, to the bus. All while carrying your groceries and managing where the kids are.

Bingo! You've hit on one of the hard realities of high rise city living. It may never be as easy to raise kids in the city compared to the 'burbs, and because of that the majority of people attracted to city life will be young, mostly single, and child-free, or older retirement or pre-retired couples that are well off enough to afford and deal with the trials of urbanism. Urban cores, for the family inclined, will always be the hip place to visit w/o the kids, not home sweet home, for the majority, anyway. Suits me fine.

[nuplanner]

Honestly, if you look at the rate of foreclosures out there, and how many homes are still for sale, it is possible.  I have family who live out there, and people are going broke due to the cost of living and the value of their homes falling like crazy.  Section 8 housing is coming in too.  So maybe the article may be a little drastic in some cases, but the author brings some good points why older, (not necessarily urban) areas will see a rebirth of redevelopment.



These things affect fringe suburban living.
Gas prices, and the cost of living going up.  The wage is not.

Time of the commute
Families are getting smaller, and people are waiting longer to have kids. (demographics)  Divorce rate
Location and availability of diversified housing stock

Transportation options.



Now high-rise living is not for everyone, but it happens all over the world cueball1914.  The idea that urban has to have high rise living is not true, and shows in general the lack of understanding whats a true urban environment is.  Things such as row houses, townhomes, low-rise condos, patio homes etc all can be apart of an urban environment.  For instance, go look at the pearl district in downtown Portland.  I just visited there the other month, and on a sunny day, I could not believe how many people came out with there their kids to play in the park. Now a different place is called stapleton.  This place is not downtown Denver, but has a small core, parks everywhere, homes close, and a diversified housing stock.  Places are different, and Stapletons vision proposes high rises with condos, office towers within a mix environment.  



However, you see older areas (sfh) up and coming.  But suburbs will always have a place for people.  And if you look at this city, over 90% of it was built as a suburb.  My hope is that you see less sprawl  and more reinvest into the inner rings of places.  That is the core areas, first, second, and third rings of suburbs.

Edited by nuplanner, 11 June 2008 - 04:10 PM.