13 replies to this topic

[strmchsr77]

Here are the projected 2010 populations from each of the major Northwest Arkansas Cities and the 2000 census numbers. This comes from the NWA Regional Planning Commission.  How do they look?

City              2000       2010

Bella Vista         15,632    26,366

Bentonville         19,730   33,555

Rogers               38,829   55,281

Siloam Springs    10,843   14,872

Benton County    153,406  214,097


Fayetteville          58,047   76,468

Springdale           45,798   68,134

Wash. County      157,715  202,968

Edited by strmchsr77, 26 July 2009 - 07:18 AM.

[Mith242]

strmchsr77, on Jul 26 2009, 08:17 AM, said:

Here are the projected 2010 populations from each of the major Northwest Arkansas Cities and the 2000 census numbers. This comes from the NWA Regional Planning Commission.  How do they look?

City              2000       2010

Bella Vista         15,632    26,366

Bentonville         19,730   33,555

Rogers               38,829   55,281

Siloam Springs    10,843   14,872

Benton County    153,406  214,097


Fayetteville          58,047   76,468

Springdale           45,798   68,134

Wash. County      157,715  202,968

Thanks for this info, it's interesting to see.  A few years ago I wouldn't have been surprised to see these projections.  But I think we all know with the economy things have slowed down including the population growth.  While the 2000 figures are certainly outdated the 2010 estimates seem a bit high to me.  But maybe it's also because there hasn't been a special census done in a while either.  Seems like a number of the cities had a special census sometime in the 90's.  Some of these numbers do seem plausible to me.  But some also seem a bit optimistic in my opinion.  But I'm no expert in a number of these cities so it's hard for me to judge.  If Fayetteville does hit 76,000 that will make it pretty close to catching up to Ft Smith.  Granted Ft Smith has been growing as well, but nothing like NWA.  Ft Smith was around 80,000 for the 2000 census.  If I had to guess I would think they'd be around 85,000 for the 2010 census.  Which could mean Fayetteville is less than 10,000 away from catching Ft Smith.  It will certainly be interesting to see how the 2010 numbers turn out.  I'm also curious to see how other Arkansas cities do.  I ended up voting for the some are close but some or far off.  Although I don't think some of them are that far off, but some do seem a bit on the high side, a bit on the optimistic side as I said earlier.  But I do hope these numbers are correct.  

[strmchsr77]

Yeah, I really hoping that Fayetteville will be around 76000, it still seems a little high to me.  I think that the last special census was done in 2006 and Fayetteville was around 68000 then.  So I would guess that 72000 would be a better bet.  It will probably be 10-15 years before we can pass Ft Smith and become the second largest city in the state.  Unless the area picks back up and these planned developments (like Southpass) become reality.

[coreysr5]

wow springdale has a huge jump!

they all seem a tad bit high, but not that far off.

benton county has really jumped ahead of washington county despite springdale-fayetteville being considerably larger that rogers-bentonville

[Mith242]

strmchsr77, on Jul 26 2009, 04:34 PM, said:

Yeah, I really hoping that Fayetteville will be around 76000, it still seems a little high to me.  I think that the last special census was done in 2006 and Fayetteville was around 68000 then.  So I would guess that 72000 would be a better bet.  It will probably be 10-15 years before we can pass Ft Smith and become the second largest city in the state.  Unless the area picks back up and these planned developments (like Southpass) become reality.

If Fayetteville is around 72,000 yeah I can see it being about 10 years for us to catch up to Ft Smith.  But if we do end up at the 76,000 estimate I think it will be under 10.  Although I guess we wouldn't really know it without some sort of special census.  I suppose something drastic could happen during that time to change things.  But I really think Ft Smith's position as second biggest city in the state is going to end in the near future.  I wonder how long it's held that position.

[Mith242]

coreysr5, on Jul 26 2009, 05:57 PM, said:

wow springdale has a huge jump!

they all seem a tad bit high, but not that far off.

benton county has really jumped ahead of washington county despite springdale-fayetteville being considerably larger that rogers-bentonville

Yeah it's been pretty ironic that Washington County has the metro's two biggest cities but Benton County is larger.  But if you look at the southern half of Washington County it's pretty empty.  Where as Benton County has population scattered around pretty well.  Siloam Springs is in the west.  Although there's no decent sized cities in eastern Benton County there's still a number of people living around Beaver Lake.

[Mith242]

The poll seems to be pretty level so far, except for the 'the numbers are too low' selection.  I am curious how they came up with these estimates.

[cowbreath]

I think the Benton County estimates are right, but the Washington County estimates are too high for the cities.  The county estimate could be correct though.

[thewizard16]

2010 Census data was released today: http://www.arkansaso...eleased/?latest

Not everything is mentioned in this article, but from what has been verified so far:

Fayetteville: 73,580 (26.8% increase from 2000)
Springdale: 69,797 (52.4% increase from 2000)
Fort Smith: 86,209

Benton County: 221,339 (44.3% increase from 2000, now the second most populated county in Arkansas)

Central Arkansas also saw significant growth in areas, and the south and east portions of the state saw population declines in most places.

With Fayetteville's growth being less than projected, and Springdale's being more, the two cities are now very close in total population. If the trend (I wouldn't expect the rate to continue, but the trend might) continues, it would overtake Fayetteville in population within the next decade... thoughts?

[Mith242]

thewizard16, on 10 February 2011 - 02:25 PM, said:

2010 Census data was released today: http://www.arkansaso...eleased/?latest

Not everything is mentioned in this article, but from what has been verified so far:

Fayetteville: 73,580 (26.8% increase from 2000)
Springdale: 69,797 (52.4% increase from 2000)
Fort Smith: 86,209

Benton County: 221,339 (44.3% increase from 2000, now the second most populated county in Arkansas)

Central Arkansas also saw significant growth in areas, and the south and east portions of the state saw population declines in most places.

With Fayetteville's growth being less than projected, and Springdale's being more, the two cities are now very close in total population. If the trend (I wouldn't expect the rate to continue, but the trend might) continues, it would overtake Fayetteville in population within the next decade... thoughts?

I saw you on here and figured you might be posting about this so I thought I'd let you do the honor.  Yeah I was surprised to see Fayetteville come in with a lower number.  It is possible Springdale could overtake Fayetteville.  But I think they have some things working against them.  For one I think a lot of that growth happened earlier in the decade and I'm wondering if they could really keep up that rate of growth.  I think Springdale is going to start having more infrastructure problems with such rapid population growth.  But if Springdale is able to maintain it's position as a 'cheap' bedroom community it's possible that it could happen.  The other thing is I think it depends on what Fayetteville does.  While many prefer Fayetteville let's be honest they're strict ordinances and such probably does scare some people away.  Overall I think Fayetteville has always gone for the smart growth and not the rapid growth many of the other NWA have done.  But if Fayetteville wants to strongly stick with that it has to face the possibility of other NWA cities outgrowing them.  In this case Springdale.
I guess what I'm still waiting for is when will an NWA city overtake Ft Smith as the second biggest city in the state.  I had always assumed it would be Fayetteville. But now I guess we have to leave it open because it's possible Springdale could end up being the one.

[aerotive]

Assuming construction comes back and the general economy improves (has to at some point I suppose) Springdale will be well positioned.  They've gotten a lot of growth from Hispanics and I expect that would pick up again.

Re Fayetteville, ordinances are certainly a part of it.  In fact many incumbent landowners support them, those regs favor those who already own land and houses over those who don't.  The stream ordinance would enhance that, and would tend to increase the value of already-developed land.  

With Fayetteville having so many stable government jobs (U of A, federal & county buildings, various federal offices, VA, county jail etc) and making so many quality of living lists  I think many in positions of influence start from a position that Fayetteville doesn't have to try all that hard (or depending om your perspective, lower their standards) in order to compete for growth.

[thewizard16]

Mith242, on 10 February 2011 - 02:34 PM, said:

I saw you on here and figured you might be posting about this so I thought I'd let you do the honor.  Yeah I was surprised to see Fayetteville come in with a lower number.  It is possible Springdale could overtake Fayetteville.  But I think they have some things working against them.  For one I think a lot of that growth happened earlier in the decade and I'm wondering if they could really keep up that rate of growth.  I think Springdale is going to start having more infrastructure problems with such rapid population growth.  But if Springdale is able to maintain it's position as a 'cheap' bedroom community it's possible that it could happen.  The other thing is I think it depends on what Fayetteville does.  While many prefer Fayetteville let's be honest they're strict ordinances and such probably does scare some people away.  Overall I think Fayetteville has always gone for the smart growth and not the rapid growth many of the other NWA have done.  But if Fayetteville wants to strongly stick with that it has to face the possibility of other NWA cities outgrowing them.  In this case Springdale.
I guess what I'm still waiting for is when will an NWA city overtake Ft Smith as the second biggest city in the state.  I had always assumed it would be Fayetteville. But now I guess we have to leave it open because it's possible Springdale could end up being the one.

Thanks. I'd just posted Little Rock's and figured I might as well stop over here while I was on since it was all in the same article. I was also surprised to see Fayetteville come in lower, and not just a little lower, almost 3,000 less than projected... makes me wonder how the projections were so far off. Fort Smith is still growing too, just not quite as quickly, so either Fayetteville or Springdale will still have to grow pretty rapidly to overtake it.

Fayetteville's strict rules should help keep things looking nicer as growth continues, but I can certainly see how developers and even prospective residents might look just a bit farther north for a cheaper option. (Several people I worked with at the UofA lived in Springdale or Farmington for this very reason.) Springdale also has some pretty big plans for the area around the Arvest Ballpark, which combined with the nearby Harber growth, could keep them growing at a pretty fast pace. The real asset of Fayetteville is that it doesn't have as divided a feel as Springdale (or Rogers) and has a very good reputation outside the immediate area and the state. How they'll capitalize off of that in the next decade, I don't know.

[thewizard16]

City numbers released moments ago.. I posted the most relevant ones off the top of my head, more at the link: http://www.arkansaso...on-city/?latest

Fort Smith: 86,209

Fayetteville: 73,580

Springdale: 69,797

Rogers: 55,964

Bentonville: 35,301

Bella Vista: 26,461

Siloam Springs: 15,039

Centerton: 9,515

Lowell: 7,327

Farmington: 5,974

Pea Ridge: 4,794

Prairie Grove: 4,380

Gentry: 3,158

Elkins: 2,648

Tontitown: 2,460

Gravette: 2,325

West Fork: 2,317

Cave Springs: 1,729

Elm Springs: 1,535

[Mith242]

thewizard16, on 10 February 2011 - 05:04 PM, said:

City numbers released moments ago.. I posted the most relevant ones off the top of my head, more at the link: http://www.arkansaso...on-city/?latest

Fort Smith: 86,209

Fayetteville: 73,580

Springdale: 69,797

Rogers: 55,964

Bentonville: 35,301

Bella Vista: 26,461

Siloam Springs: 15,039

Centerton: 9,515

Lowell: 7,327

Farmington: 5,974

Pea Ridge: 4,794

Prairie Grove: 4,380

Gentry: 3,158

Elkins: 2,648

Tontitown: 2,460

Gravette: 2,325

West Fork: 2,317

Cave Springs: 1,729

Elm Springs: 1,535

Thanks for the other numbers.  Getting back to the topic before about Springdale passing up Fayetteville.  Overall I think a number of people had been rather dismissive about the idea.  But the more I think about it the more I think Springdale might just pull it off.  Not unless Fayetteville makes some changes.  Or if Springdale runs into some serious infrastructure problems in the near future.  Looking at all the numbers Jonesboro isn't too far behind either.  Would be pretty weird not long ago we all thought Fayetteville would eventually be the second biggest city in the state.  But by the time it actually passes up Ft Smith it's possible Springdale and Jonesboro could have passed it up as well.  Bentonville just edged Hot Springs for the tenth spot.  Pine Bluff is losing people at ninth but still has a big enough gap that it might take Bentonville a while to pass it up.