73 replies to this topic

[jednc]

kermit, on 07 April 2012 - 04:09 PM, said:

So.... Should the plug get pulled on he Red line where would that chunk of the sales tax money go?

I think the streetcar is out of bounds given its Charlotte-centric route. The only route that would appease the smaller members of the MTC would be to Mathews, right?

I would suspect that building a line to Mathews wouldn't make North Charlotte, Huntersville, Davidson and Cornelius any happier than building a "Charlotte-Centric" route.

I live in the suburbs and I would ride the train if built to the north (contrary to arguments made by others in this discussion). To be honest, I'd like the red-line built that was promised to all north-meck residents years ago.

You can dismiss the suburbs as unimportant to the MTC all you want to (and propose re-creating the CTS), but a greater percentage (compared to population) of money comes from the suburbs than Charlotte proper. That may not be true in total dollars just yet, but that's how it's trending. I guarantee I pay more into the transit system than a great many who live in Charlotte.

That is the same attitude that has people in the Ballentyne area wanting to secede from Charlotte (this idea that somehow we suburbanites don't matter as much).

Edit: only the first paragraph is in response to what Kermit said....

Edited by jednc, 10 April 2012 - 09:45 AM.

[dubone]

It's not a matter of whether you would personally ride it, it is whether you would ride it every day AND thousands of your neighbors would ride it every day even when 77 is widened.  The projection using ridership model only expects 4-5000 daily riders (on average) after a decade of growth.  That is partly due to the fact that they will have limited numbers of cars, limited frequency, limited park & ride capacity, and the overall strategy of this type of line, to commute rather than to spur people to use the line multiple times per day.   Light rail and street car would be used for trips to the grocery store, to/from work, doctor office, university classes, etc.   It isn't anything against the northern suburbs, but that is the nature of commuter rail lines that are very long but end up with far fewer riders than more compact lines in dense neighborhoods, running adjacent to many types of land uses.

The suburbs do matter, but the thing is, people wanting the "SUB"-urban lifestyle are people that do not want the "urban" lifestyle.   As a compromise, Charlotte/Mecklenburg has developed a strategy of urbanizing primarily in the centers (like South Park, Eastland, Northlake, downtown) and corridors (between Monroe Road & Central, between South & Tryon, etc.) so that they can direct growth in a way that will both support urbanism (even for suburban residents) withouth angering them by getting too close to their suburban homes.

Speaking of Ballantyne, it is a growing center with many of the city's F500 corporate headquarters and considered by many south Charlotte suburbanites to their more local urban center.  I have long believed that the Blue Line should be extended to Carolina Place and the heart of Ballantyne to alleviate 485 and to serve reverse commutes to the retail and office commuters.   Why is that critical area being neglected, which could help it further urbanize?   Serving a critical area with a 4-5 mile extension that would be eligible for federal funds is much more rational than building a 35 mile train for occasional commuters without federal funds.

Additionally, it looks like some momentum is building for expanding 77 with High Occupancy/Toll lanes sooner rather than later.   The $4-6 roundtrip fare of the Red line could buy a toll on the express lanes of an expanded 77 with congestion pricing.   So that is competition that further makes it harder for the Red Line to win commuters over.  In the long long run, we will need both, but I bet the projections of low ridership are correct.    

Regardless, this line has high hurdles to overcome to get local town funding and approvals from the railroad, so I bet those factors will delay this line until it is closer to the point that it is actually needed (I suspect it'll be another decade before these hurdles are overcome).  Perhaps by then there will be enough growth to adjust the design and have better ridership estimates.

[carolinagarnet]

Dubone, I think you're dead on with your assessment. My gut reaction to the news that Red Line was stalled was an eye roll, but it seems like the density is just not there to support a commuter train to that area. I never considered the possibility of extending the Blue Line to Ballantyne, but that seems like a brilliant idea. As close as the Park & Ride at South and 485 is to Ballantyne, I think it needs to be at people's front doors for them to use it. That said, Ballantyne seems to be positioning itself like Buckhead (wealthy, big mall, concentrated business area, secondary skyline), especially with the SPX building breaking the low rise barrier. There is so much undeveloped land south and east of Ballantyne that the area is going to continue growing for years. Not that this should act as a deterrant, but I wonder if having a mass transit link to Ballantyne would catalyze development at the expense of Uptown.

[dubone]

Here is a drawing of the line as I believe it could go.   There are some wetlands, but a lot of the land is either city land or beneficiaries of the line (Carolina Place and downtown Ballantyne offices).

Attached Thumbnails

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[southslider]

And if District 7 becomes the "City of Providence," MTC could have added membership pushing for this other BLE to Ballantyne.

[thetrick]

Dubone I think your assessment of the Red line is spot on. If the ridership is not there to make it a no brainier then it will always be an uphill battle.

I think the closest thing we will get to heavy commuter rail in CLT is expanding the operations on the Piedmont/Amtrak service corridor.  I would like to see a University and a Harrisburg station.

Also like your BLE idea seems very practical.

TH

[ah59396]

I really, really, really like that spur.  A lot.

I think that spur would eventually encourage a large "SE" loop that would roll down the Ballantyne parkway, a stop at promenade on providence, north to the arboretum  and east to downtown Matthews, then connect with the Independence line back in to uptown.  That would also satisfy Matthews.

Sorry, I got ahead of myself.  The end.

[DMann]

I think that Ballantyne itself is limiting that spur, much like Pineville did.  If you limit the access to Ballantyne to only people who have cars, you don't have to worry about the people without cars.

I agree it would be a great extension, I can envision it going down the middle of 485 to near Johnston road.

Don't hold your breathe.

[ah59396]

Unfortunately, I'd imagine the people of Ballantyne would vote in a $2 billion highway spur before a $500 million light rail spur any day of the week.  Dare to dream.


^Not intended to be a knock on any Ballantyne dwellers on this board!

Edited by ah59396, 13 April 2012 - 07:05 AM.

[ajfunder]

WSOC has released a story on the Red Line, and it appears to take a big swing at the Red Line. I also just learned how bias Steve Johnson is against rail, he won't even consider the Red Line. All in all, I am tired of WSOC taking swings at rail projects.
http://www.wsoctv.co...ed-plans/nMkKd/

[caterpillar2]

If only people would be realistic and look at the realities of a growing population. First, traffic will continue to get worse and fuel will continue to cost more. Tie ups and fluxuating speeds use up more gas.  Emissions from cars will increase and fatalities will as well.  There is also noise polution to consider and the constant use of land to increase the size of highways.  These things will only get bigger and more troublesome.  It will be much cheaper to spend $20 a week riding the rail into downtown than twice that driving. Besides, the frustrations of driving can be eliminate with rail service. It is better to sit and read the paper on the way to work rather than fight morons driving and text messaging.

I believe that we owe it to ourselves and our children to prepare for the future and not deter the cost of our red line. It will never be any cheaper and the land will not be as available in the future when it 'will' eventually be built.  Even if everyone pays $10 a week more in taxes, it will benefit us in having a way to get into Charlotte during snowstorms, traffic jams and other awkward times. It is a no brainer and those that oppose are not looking at the big picture and considering issues outside themselves.  We really need to look to the future.  If we wait, we will be sorry and will be acting irresponsibly.

[kermit]

It seems like the math on the red line is pretty simple (although I can't find some of the necessary source data). Since 77 is at capacity at rush hour the cost of adding another lane (in both directions) should be compared to the capital cost and capacity of the red line.

(I may be wrong about any and all of these numbers -- fell free to correct me)

Gateway to Mt Morne: 23 miles
Cost of adding an additional lane mile to 77: $1-10 million per mile (not sure about this number)
Total cost of adding one new lane in each direction: $46-$460 million (one new lane in each direction)

Capacity of one interstate lane: 2,000 cars per hour

The high end of the cost range for I-77 widening is roughly equal to the capital costs of the red line

Capacity of red line:
100 per coach (?)
6 coaches (?)
600 pax per trip

4 trains per hour at peak (?)
2400 passengers per peak hour (roughly equal to one lane capacity)

If an additional lane mile of I-77 costs $10 million, it looks (to me) like the red line has the same capital costs. However the red line is 1) more scalable than the interstate (new capacity can be added for the cost of an addiional coach) and 2) cheaper to maintain (since the track is amortized over a 50 year lifespan and pavement is amortized over 20 years (I think).

This math makes the red line look OK (but not great) in comparison to widening. -- the numbers look much better for the Blue Line since it has higher frequencies and capacities per car (and widening costs for I-77 south of downtown are much higher).

[ajfunder]

With commuter trains you can add as many as coaches as sidings and amount of equipment allow. Metra in Chicago can run 12-14 car trains which can handle about 1,500 people per train. Bi-level equipment which is the standard for most modern commuter rail lines can carry about 144 passengers per coach at max capacity. There is also less variable conditions such as accidents when riding a train, another upside.

Edited by ajfunder, 28 April 2012 - 08:12 PM.

[thetrick]

What is killing the red line is not a numbers issue it's a culture issue. Upper income people from the suburb want to drive their cars to work...period. Charlotte does not have a culture where using mass transit is acceptable across the social economic spectrum. The light rail succeeds because it is urban and people who live in an urban environment (rich or poor) understand the value of mass transit.

Has anyone noticed that the people who are expected to use the Red Line are not the ones asking for it or pushing it. You can not make people change, they have to want it, and in order for it to be a true success they have to be fighting for it, we are far from there.

I think the Red Line is the right idea it's just about 10 years to soon. Run a reliable commuter service on the Piedmont route for 5 years and they might start to come around.

TH