12 replies to this topic

[Neo]

http://www.cnn.com/2...e.ap/index.html

"Japan's capital has a 90 percent chance of being devastated by a major earthquake some time in the next 50 years, according to a study by a government panel."

Could be extremely bad for this to happen in Tokyo, a major player in the world's economy.  Any thoughts on this?

[Brickell]

Neo, on Aug 31 2004, 10:13 AM, said:

http://www.cnn.com/2...e.ap/index.html

"Japan's capital has a 90 percent chance of being devastated by a major earthquake some time in the next 50 years, according to a study by a government panel."

Could be extremely bad for this to happen in Tokyo, a major player in the world's economy.  Any thoughts on this?

50 years is a long time.

I could predict just about anything and put a 50 year time span on it.


That being said, hopefully when it does it, the city will be prepared.

[josita]

What would be interesting to find out is how Tokyo (and for that matter all earthquake prone cities) has prepared their city for the nxt big quake.  Predicting quakes is one thing, but preparing citizens is another.  What does their infrastructure look like - are their homes and buildings being built to mitigate disaster?  Do their citizens know how to respond to a quake?

[Urbanrailfan]

I hope Tokyo has an earthquake plan within now and that day it hits.

[monsoon]

[Neo]

Well, 50 years IS a long time for a prediction, they're going on historical quakes.  The last major quake to hit the area was in 1923.  That time period is not exactly modern day as it stands today.  The problem now is all of the skyscrapers in that city and the density that did not exist in 1923.  A major quake hitting Tokyo today would be a catastrophe felt worldwide IMO.  I know new buildings are built to code in Tokyo to deal with earthquakes, but the problem lies in older structures, and even the ones up to code may not be prepared for a major quake.  The prediction is simply going on historical evidence, nothing more.  If anything, if you look at the major quakes in Tokyo's history they're overdue for a major one.

[monsoon]

[Allan]

A major quake would be devastating to Tokyo.  Imagine the chaos that would follow such a tragedy!

[Neo]

monsoon, on Aug 31 2004, 09:11 PM, said:

She is unhappy when they get on the strong side as it upsets the spiders and they come into the house.

Strike Tokyo off my list of "possible places to move" as I hate creepy crawly things...especially spiders...

[Neo]

Here are a couple of pictures from the last major earthquake to hit Tokyo (1923):

[Brickell]

Didn't meant to downplay the premise.  It could be a very serious situation.  However, it shouldn't be a suprise.  That's true for Japan, California, Alaska or anywhere else in a earthquake prone area.  Now if they came out and said that about Chicago or St. Louis, it would be a daring prediction.  For Tokyo it's not a question of if, it's when, and for that reason I assume and hope they take preperation seriously.  It's not like they don't deal with earthquakes on a regular basis.

[Aessotariq]

Japan's cities have a lot of older buildings that were built when the building code only required that the first five floors of a structure be reinforced to withstand seismic forces, which I find terrifying. A lot of buildings collapsed exactly at the sixth floor. And traditional housing typically uses heavy roofing materials on flimsy walls.

I sure hope that they've learned from the Kobe quake, which is approaching its 10th anniversary in a few days... (Jan 17, 1995).

Edited by tivo, 06 January 2005 - 10:42 PM.

[urban addict 20324]

The threat of earthquakes have kept most buildings in Japan lowrise, but a lot of the lowrise buildings are crappy and would fail instantly in an earthquake. In the 1995 Kobe earthquake, a lot of buildings fell or slid into the adjacent streets because their lower floors failed. I'm guessing their height limit restrictions are much stricter than the SF Bay Area, who has a lot of highrises in the midst of a sea of faultlines. The Japanese better strengthen up their buildings and their plans for their Big One earthquake and the possibility of a tidal wave caused by the earthquake.