77 replies to this topic

[RiversideGator]

Cityboy:  Jacksonville is one of the fastest growing metro areas in the country.  Now, if you mean that downtown is dead, it is not as lively as some downtowns, but it is better than others and is clearly on the rise.  You clearly have not visited Jacksonville recently, if at all.

[Hisma]

fastest growing metro in the country?  where'd u come up with that?

[RiversideGator]

Quote

one of the fastest growing metro areas in the country

Reading comprehension, Hisma, reading comprehension.

[Hisma]

RiversideGator, on May 2 2005, 12:06 AM, said:

Reading comprehension, Hisma, reading comprehension.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

no I understood it, but with the exception of Flagler being one of the fastest growing counties percentage-wise, there seems to be more population growth in central & south florida.  Jax is growing steadily, but I've never heard it mentioned as one of the fastest growing metros in the country.  Not a bad thing either, since fast growth usually means more sprawl.  I could be wrong tho... some stats would be nice.

[serif38]

interesting info from http://www.demograph...b-2025metro.htm

ranks largest US metro areas, 3 numbers are 2000, 2010 and 2025 population

Metropolitan Area 2000 Rank 2010 Rank 2025 Rank
New York--Northern New Jersey--Long Island, NY--NJ--CT--PA CMSA 21,199,900 1 22,140,500 1 24,319,900 1
Los Angeles--Riverside--Orange County, CA CMSA 16,373,600 2 18,886,900 2 24,196,300 2
San Francisco--Oakland--San Jose, CA CMSA 7,039,400 5 8,111,800 5 10,377,400 3
Chicago--Gary--Kenosha, IL--IN--WI CMSA 9,157,500 3 9,630,300 3 10,297,400 4
Washington--Baltimore, DC--MD--VA--WV CMSA 7,608,100 4 8,292,900 4 9,300,000 5
Dallas--Fort Worth, TX CMSA 5,221,800 9 6,099,800 8 7,465,400 6
Philadelphia--Wilmington--Atlantic City, PA--NJ--DE--MD CMSA 6,188,500 6 6,362,400 6 6,680,300 7
Boston--Worcester--Lawrence, MA--NH--ME--CT CMSA 5,819,100 7 6,119,200 7 6,611,700 8
Houston--Galveston--Brazoria, TX CMSA 4,669,600 10 5,365,200 10 6,447,100 9
Detroit--Ann Arbor--Flint, MI CMSA 5,456,400 8 5,525,600 9 5,627,900 10
Atlanta, GA MSA 4,112,200 11 4,765,400 11 5,510,400 11
Miami--Fort Lauderdale, FL CMSA 3,876,400 12 4,384,200 12 5,167,100 12
Seattle--Tacoma--Bremerton, WA CMSA 3,554,800 13 4,012,600 13 4,670,800 13
Phoenix--Mesa, AZ MSA 3,251,900 14 3,785,000 14 4,445,400 14
San Diego, CA MSA 2,813,800 17 3,244,700 15 4,155,000 15
Minneapolis--St. Paul, MN--WI MSA 2,968,800 15 3,214,900 16 3,492,300 16
Denver--Boulder--Greeley, CO CMSA 2,581,500 19 2,878,900 18 3,210,200 17
Sacramento--Yolo, CA CMSA 1,796,900 24 2,227,700 23 3,137,700 18
Portland--Salem, OR--WA CMSA 2,265,200 22 2,621,500 21 3,122,900 19
Cleveland--Akron, OH CMSA 2,945,800 16 2,978,100 17 3,018,400 20
Tampa--St. Petersburg--Clearwater, FL MSA 2,396,000 20 2,639,600 20 3,015,200 21
St. Louis, MO--IL MSA 2,603,600 18 2,666,100 19 2,766,300 22
Orlando, FL MSA 1,644,600 27 1,956,300 25 2,436,800 23
Pittsburgh, PA MSA 2,358,700 21 2,343,900 22 2,314,900 24
Las Vegas, NV--AZ MSA 1,563,300 31 1,890,500 27 2,253,400 25
Cincinnati--Hamilton, OH--KY--IN CMSA 1,979,200 23 2,051,700 24 2,124,000 26
Kansas City, MO--KS MSA 1,776,100 25 1,918,500 26 2,101,400 27
San Antonio, TX MSA 1,592,400 29 1,790,800 28 2,099,300 28
Austin--San Marcos, TX MSA 1,249,800 37 1,548,900 34 2,014,100 29
Charlotte--Gastonia--Rock Hill, NC--SC MSA 1,499,300 33 1,696,800 31 1,923,000 30
Indianapolis, IN MSA 1,607,500 28 1,720,100 30 1,820,800 31
Milwaukee--Racine, WI CMSA 1,689,600 26 1,735,300 29 1,784,700 32
Norfolk--Virginia Beach--Newport News, VA--NC MSA 1,569,500 30 1,646,900 32 1,739,600 33
Columbus, OH MSA 1,540,200 32 1,613,100 33 1,704,200 34
Salt Lake City--Ogden, UT MSA 1,333,900 35 1,507,000 35 1,684,700 35
West Palm Beach--Boca Raton, FL MSA 1,131,200 44 1,330,000 40 1,636,400 36
Fresno, CA MSA 922,500 53 1,150,300 47 1,631,400 37
Raleigh--Durham--Chapel Hill, NC MSA 1,187,900 40 1,371,100 38 1,568,600 38
Nashville, TN MSA 1,231,300 38 1,386,400 37 1,538,800 39
New Orleans, LA MSA 1,337,700 34 1,393,600 36 1,488,400 40
Greensboro--Winston-Salem--High Point, NC MSA 1,251,500 36 1,362,400 39 1,481,900 41
Jacksonville, FL MSA 1,100,500

[Viper]

What of the rest of Jacksonvilles numbers?

My estimates are:

2010 - 1,450,000
2025 - 2,050,000

[RiversideGator]

According to the 2004 census estimates, Flagler County (just south of the Jax MSA) is the 2nd fastest growing county in the country in terms of percentage growth and St. Johns County (within the Jax MSA) is the 9th fastest growing county in the country.  And, Clay County (within the Jax MSA) is the 49th fastest growing county in America.  See http://www.jacksonvi...et_census.shtml

As to the city of Jacksonville, between 2000 and 2003, we were the 5th fastest growing city in the South at 5.2% (ahead of Orlando, Tampa, Charlotte, Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, and Nashville).  See http://www.urbanplan...?showtopic=7841

And, as to the overall metro area, Jacksonville grew at the rate of 21.4% between 1990 and 2000 and the rate of 11.3% from 2000 to July 1, 2004 (see http://www.census.go...hc-t3/tab03.txt  and  http://www.census.go...2004-03-12.csv)

Finally, I do not support sprawl either, so I would point out that downtown Jacksonville is more developed than some larger cities and has a lot of projects in the pipeline.  See http://www.urbanplan...topic=9311&st=0

So, while Jacksonville is not growing too fast like Vegas or Orlando, we have healthy growth and better than most metro areas.  The bottom line is Jacksonville is hardly "dead" and that was an absurd statement not supported by the facts.

[RiversideGator]

By the way, that Demographia estimate is all wet.  If you simply extrapolate the 2025 population using current growth trends (which is probably more accurate than pulling a figure out of the air like they did), Jacksonville should be 2,025,905 in 2025.  I am not saying this is a good thing, but it is probably going to happen.

[asonj23]

One of the unique things about the Jax MSA is that it is almost entirely Jacksonville population with the small support of outlying towns.  Many other MSA's (Miami, Tampa, Orlando) have a huge population base outside of the town proper and even incorporate other larger surrounding cities (Miami-FtLaud  or  Tampa-St Pete and Orlando and all of the 3,00 other surrounding towns, even New Yourk's MSA incorporating Jersey and PA???).

[RiversideGator]

By the way, I just realized cityboy was a 15 year old child.  This is the person I am debating on here about Jacksonville??  I thought they were screening kids out on this site.

[VistaLakes01]

Aessotariq, on Jan 5 2005, 03:36 PM, said:

Metro-Dade is unique -- only one of its kind in the US. It has its flaws, the bureaucracy is huge, but I think it's a good framework. There are some really good proposals on the way that will help streamline the way services are provided.

About the next-nearest type of entity in the US is the Portland area's regional government it calls "Metro", which covers the three major counties of the Portland area. It handles issues like transportation, environmental protection, recycling, and growth management.


I'm glad you brought up the fire issue, because this one just ticks me off. Broward's system is totally fragmented: 99% incorporated, 30+ cities, almost each one with its own fire department (and some contract to the County), which will only respond inside the city limits, and pockets of unincorporated areas that are miles from the nearest county fire station. Sometimes county fire trucks have have to drive from miles away through two or three different cities to get to their service areas, when a local city fire station might be a few blocks away. In Dade this would not have happened, nor in Jacksonville.

A novel idea just happened recently. The Broward County Commision recently transferred its fire-rescue department to the Broward Sheriff's Office. BSO has had good negotiating experience in getting cities to contract with them for police services (thereby not having to lay off their force), so in assuming fire-rescue operations they can increase their service area and come up with interlocal agreements for mutual assistance. Come to think of it, I can't think of another sheriff's office that does both policing and fire-rescue.


Wow, things have changed a lot. I don't remember the rivalry being that intense in the days of Linda Chapin (Orange County Chairman) and Glenda Hood (Orlando Mayor).

It's no longer Orange County Chairman, it's Mayor of Orange County and now there is a designated Downtown Orange County which is the area around the convention center.  Weird!

[VistaLakes01]

thelakelander, on Jan 10 2005, 03:53 PM, said:

Sarasota offers more?  From my trips there, I've always viewed Sarasota as a small town, with a big skyline, and not much else to do.  In other words, its always felt like a rich version of Lakeland.

Fort Lauderdale (Broward County), on the other hand is almost twice the size of Duval County in population, so I'd expect them to have more.  However, for all the entertainment they have in Broward, what Jax does have over them, is a large collection architecturally distinct urban neighborhoods.

Sarasota seems to be more cultural than Jax.  Does anybody realize that the Sarasota-Bradenton metro area is quickly approaching the population of the Jax metro area.  Sarasota-Bradenton is hitting the 1,000,000 mark.  Jax is 1.2-3 million.

[VistaLakes01]

asonj23, on May 2 2005, 04:05 PM, said:

One of the unique things about the Jax MSA is that it is almost entirely Jacksonville population with the small support of outlying towns.  Many other MSA's (Miami, Tampa, Orlando) have a huge population base outside of the town proper and even incorporate other larger surrounding cities (Miami-FtLaud  or  Tampa-St Pete and Orlando and all of the 3,00 other surrounding towns, even New Yourk's MSA incorporating Jersey and PA???).

That is one thing that is true.  Besides Jacksonville that entire corner of Florida doesn't have very many towns or cities.  Look at Orlando Metro for example, there are so many little cities and towns (which I love, because they become more sophisticated the bigger Orlando gets.) Look at Winter Garden, Sanford, Oviedo, Mt. Dora and all the Lake county cities, Altamonte, Maitland, Winter Park.  I believe in the form of government Orlando area has, because when you are in Orlando (city limits) you are almost entirely in a city (downtown) and so the entire city of Orlando is very urban.  Same as all the little individual cities around Orlando with their renovated downtowns and neighborhoods. And Orange County is very fortunate for its tax base.  Look at most of unincorporated Orange county compared to other largely populated counties such as Hillsborough.  Orange County nicely landscapes most of their roads and use the black pole stoplights with the lighted street signs and lots of county streets have street lighting.  A city like Jacksonville or Indianapolis have to call the deserted rural areas in their city limits part of their city which makes them less exciting in my opinion.  When you see the sign that says "Orlando City Limits" you are already in a heavily populated area with a view of the skyline.  When you see the sign that says "Jacksonville City Limits" you are in the middle of nowhere, not even in the areas that would be "suburbs" in Orlando.  I wonder if Jacksonville ever hit 2,000,000 if it would have a couple million more in the metro area?  I doubt it, it would be very disapointing to go to a city of 2.000.000 people that really is a city of between 200-300,000.  But can you imagine Orlando when it hits 400,000 with the same city limits it has now?  That's about the actual size of the city of Atlanta or Miami.

[VistaLakes01]

jaxboro, on Dec 13 2007, 09:54 PM, said:

If I may say one thing is that Jax definetly does not want to become Orlando, a mrtopolitan area built upon sprawl, other than sprawl related stuff, its a good city. Orlando needs to atleast consolidate the unicorporated areas completed surrounded by C.O.O. and make them more defined and better planned. Pretty much the only area in the city limits that will see growth is the area annexed out by OIA. I see City of Orlando maxing out at 400-500,000 people, at best, unless consolidation happens. Orange County is just really badly layed out, at least with the Orlando city limits. Anyways, Jacksonville is a great big hicktown and we love it. We are a nature city. The St. Johns River, vast marshland, tidal mudflats and wetlands, and just 25 miles S,W, and N of town, your in pristine woodlands, and much of that distance is covered just within Duval County alone from downtown! I believe if I saw correct, if all buildable land is used, COJ has a potential total of 2.5 million!

I agree with Orlando maxing out at 4-500,000 people, that's about the population of the core cities in many of the country's largest metropolitan areas.  While Orlando does have a sprawl problem, if you actually live in the city it has everything within a close distance without having to travel out of the city to the suburbs.  There are two major malls in the city limits, and every other type of retail.  The downtown area has many upscale trendy restaurants besides the urban Publix's in Colonialtown, College Park and soon Thornton Park.  A 12 screen AMC theater is opening in the heart of downtown which is also full of clubs and martini bars.  I would have to agree that the tourist district in south Orange county is laid out badly, but the area could easily host a SuperBowl if we were lucky enough to have an NFL team.  Jacksonville was very lucky to score the Jags, I don't know how they managed it, it must be the distance from the other major Florida metro areas.  I do commend Jacksonville on that, unfortunately we had a city government at the time that was not interested in professional sports (Mayor Glenda Hood.)  That would be a downfall of an unconsolidated government, city vs. county.  To me the benefit of seperate governments is that Orlando can keep itself beautified, whereas Jacksonville has a lot of uncared for area.  Orlando does cheat by annexing empty land for upscale development and annexing established wealthy areas.  The OIA area will soon be another city neighborhood (Lake Nona and Vista Lakes) similar to the heavily populated MetroWest area where I live.  The same for the Millenia neighborhood.  But as far as who the larger city is, if you were to set Jax and Duval county on top of the Orlando area, you would have 10 regional malls, IKEA, true upscale retail including Bloomingdales and Neiman Marcus and a real Macy's besides the Burdines conversions.  I'm not a big fan of the outdoor retail centers but the first successful one was built here by Simon (Waterford Lakes Town Center.)  There is the bustling upscale Park Ave. in Winter Park as well as the Winter Park Village.  The states busiest airport and the 2nd largest convention center in the country.  I remember not too long ago visisting Jacksonville and not being able to find a Starbucks (of course I'm sure there are plenty there now.)  If Jacksonville were growing as fast as Orlando or Tampa then I'm sure it would be just as sprawled out.  Also one strange thing about Jax is the growth only seems to go to the south/east while the north and west seem run down with little development.  Is that done on purpose to manage growth and prevent sprawl?  Overall the biggest difference I can see with Orlando and Tampa compared to Jacksonville is since the late 90's until now, there are real city people living here in busy trendy walkable neighborhoods.  This has all occurred just recently and until now there wasn't much difference.  I know Jacksonville is making an attempt at downtown living but I don't think the urban lifestyle really happens in a city until the metro area hits the 2,000,000 mark.  Jax has all the makings of the urban lifestyle, old buildings for loft apartments, the Riverwalk and Jax Landing (is that still there?), it just needs more people and more fashionable or urban lifestyle oriented people and probably whether you like it or not, a much larger GLBT population to help it along.  Also it's upscale shopping area needs to be closer to the downtown area and less suburban (but then again Jax doesn't have suburbs?, just the mainly populated areas look and feel like suburbs?? I'm confused about how that works.  Does that mean most development in the huge city limits of Jacksonville is full of surface parking lots and not designed in a more urban pedestrian friendly style?  Look at Tampa's urban Target and Orlando's new SoDo development, as well as Baldwin Park in Orlando and what is happening in West Tampa neighborhood.  Anyway, Jacksonville is cool with the bridges and river and I don't mean to criticize, I'm just excited about what is happening in Central Florida and I'm sure Florida's growth will spill over in to North Florida soon, Flagler county was just added to the Orlando/Daytona CSA and that's getting pretty close to Jax!

[poonther]

metrowester, on Dec 13 2007, 09:14 PM, said:

Does anybody realize that the Sarasota-Bradenton metro area is quickly approaching the population of the Jax metro area. Sarasota-Bradenton is hitting the 1,000,000 mark. Jax is 1.2-3 million.

All census data I know and read shows Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice Metro population to be 682,833 based on 7.1.06 estimates.  It is growing roughly at 2 to 3 percent a year.  These same estimates show Jax's metro pop. to be like you stated at 1,277,997 and growing at about the same percents as S/B.  Based on this info, Jax is twice the size of S/B and based on current growth rates, will continue to be.

jaxboro is correct, Jax is FL's biggest city and b/c of city/county consolidation probably always will be.  Most of the other big cities in FL are small in land size and thus smaller in pop.  This all of course is referring to CITY size and not METRO size..there is a big difference between the two.  IMHO the next big metro to emerge in FL will be the Ft. Myers-Naples area and not S/B as much.

Quote

Anyway, Jacksonville is cool with the bridges and river and I don't mean to criticize, I'm just excited about what is happening in Central Florida and I'm sure Florida's growth will spill over in to North Florida soon, Flagler county was just added to the Orlando/Daytona CSA and that's getting pretty close to Jax!

Four of the top 100 fastest growing counties in the USA are in NFL........Saint Johns, Clay, Wakulla and Walton.  Flagler IS the fastest growing county in the USA...which is in the blurry area where NFL meets CFL.  So I think the growth you wish for NFL is already here.

[VistaLakes01]

poonther, on Dec 14 2007, 09:52 AM, said:

All census data I know and read shows Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice Metro population to be 682,833 based on 7.1.06 estimates.  It is growing roughly at 2 to 3 percent a year.  These same estimates show Jax's metro pop. to be like you stated at 1,277,997 and growing at about the same percents as S/B.  Based on this info, Jax is twice the size of S/B and based on current growth rates, will continue to be.

jaxboro is correct, Jax is FL's biggest city and b/c of city/county consolidation probably always will be.  Most of the other big cities in FL are small in land size and thus smaller in pop.  This all of course is referring to CITY size and not METRO size..there is a big difference between the two.  IMHO the next big metro to emerge in FL will be the Ft. Myers-Naples area and not S/B as much.



Four of the top 100 fastest growing counties in the USA are in NFL........Saint Johns, Clay, Wakulla and Walton.  Flagler IS the fastest growing county in the USA...which is in the blurry area where NFL meets CFL.  So I think the growth you wish for NFL is already here.

I swear I read stats that the estimated 2006 pop of Sarasota/Bradenton was near 900,000.  That probably includes the North Port/Port Charlotte area.  It it interesting that Tampa/St. Pete/Clearwater is not included in a CSA with Sarasota area.  That means Sarasota is pretty much a self sufficient city with a large job base.

[johnatl]

In Jacksonvilles defense I have to add that there are two urban, walkable, dense and wonderful areas that Orlando, or any city for that matter, would kill for. I'm talking about Riverside/Avondale and San Marco. Both of these areas are old streetcar neighborhoods on opposite sides of the river tha may possibly be some of the nicest urban neighborhoods in the south. Sorry, but I don't have pics.

Orlandoans would see similarities to College Park, only older and more urban in makeup.

[VistaLakes01]

johnatl, on Dec 17 2007, 11:53 AM, said:

In Jacksonvilles defense I have to add that there are two urban, walkable, dense and wonderful areas that Orlando, or any city for that matter, would kill for. I'm talking about Riverside/Avondale and San Marco. Both of these areas are old streetcar neighborhoods on opposite sides of the river tha may possibly be some of the nicest urban neighborhoods in the south. Sorry, but I don't have pics.

Orlandoans would see similarities to College Park, only older and more urban in makeup.

I agree that those are nice walkable urban neighborhoods.  I was referring a lot to the types of people and businesses in the neighborhoods in Orlando and Tampa.  They have become much more active with a lot of foot traffic consistently and the people dress very fashionably and they have very trendy restaurants and ultra lounges with people sitting outside, dressed in a lot of black clothing, the type of thing you used to only see in Atlanta and Miami.  The neighborhoods are more "city-like" and Jacksonville hasn't reached that stage yet.  When I say city-like, I mean the attitude and the options available for entertainment and dining, shopping.  Last time I was in Riverside/Avondale, it was at the point where it was kind of hip and "funky",  the shops had that incense smell to them and not a lot of money put in to the area (yet) as far as restaurants such as Hue, Dexters, Midnight Blue, Citrus, etc.  The people were more "Abercrombie" and not Hugo Boss, Diesel, Armani, etc.  I know that sounds pretentious, but I love that big city feel and trendiness.  Like I said, once Jax hits the 2 million mark those will probably be incredible neighborhoods, and once you get some real upscale retail beyond Banana Republic it will change.  If you've ever been down Howard and Armenia Avenues in Tampa you get the same feel in SoHo and Hyde Park and Bayshore Blvd resembles Brickell Ave more and more as the city grows and seeing the hot good looking people running and rollerblading and working out along the bay there is very impressive.  That is what I would refer to as a "big" city, it's not just the population number, it's actually the look and attitude of the people that make a "big" city and how busy and active the neighborhoods are, and "The Cheescake Factory" or "PF Changs" are not the only "upscale" dining options that everyone is talking about.  Orlando was pretty much at the phase Jacksonville is now in about 1993 or 1994 except that Orlando had that huge techno dance music scene going on at that time that was featured in Rolling Stone magazine and The Club at Firestone was known internationally and one of the worlds hottest nightclubs.  And in Tampa Ybor City started happening with it's rebirth and club scene.  I cannot ever remember hearing the words Jacksonville and nightlife in the same sentence.  So what it comes down to is more than nice historic urban neighborhoods and buildings, it's the people.  But of course Jacksonville will get to that point, I've waited 40 years of my life for Orlando to get to that point and it's finally happening.  One hinderance to Jacksonville though is that it doesn't have much surounding it to feed off of the city.  Tampa and Orlando feed off of each other and all the multitudes of small cities surrounding the entire area that brings more people and commerce into the cities.  Plus the international tourism and exposure and like I said before also the large and visable GLBT community and the more diversity and liberal attitudes of the people in the cities.  I can't really see a difference between the people in the city of Jacksonville and the suburbs of Jacksonville.  Then again that's the down side to that city/county thing, it makes the suburbs and the city one and the same.