170 replies to this topic

[Jones133]

DCMetroRaleigh, on May 19 2008, 08:47 AM, said:

According to the U.S. Census, Alamance County grew from 130,800 people in 2000 to an estimated 145,360 people in 2007, a gain of almost 15,000 people.  While this is robust growth, it is not the type of breakneck growth seen in Johnston or Union counties. However, the area may be on the cusp of greater growth with the opening of the Greensboro Beltway and the immergence of the county as a major shopping destination.

Alamance is tiny in area, so I think that is a significant number. Perhaps new density maps tell a more relevant story?

[bamabem]

Now that the recession is becoming increasingly worse throughout the country, have these projections altered? I understand that North Carolina is not taking this nearly as hard as other states; however, with the financial industry in a rut and widespread fear across the nation in the minds of consumers, is North Carolina still looking at such an immense boom?

[Carolindiana]

bamabem, on Feb 21 2009, 06:02 PM, said:

Now that the recession is becoming increasingly worse throughout the country, have these projections altered? I understand that North Carolina is not taking this nearly as hard as other states; however, with the financial industry in a rut and widespread fear across the nation in the minds of consumers, is North Carolina still looking at such an immense boom?

I don't think that the projections would change drastically. 2030 is 21 years away; this recession will be ancient history by then.

IMO, North Carolina is in as good a shape as just about any state in the country. Real estate prices are holding steady or even increasing in the two largest metros for a good reason: the Research Triangle and Charlotte are still highly desirable places to live. Those metro areas' growth in recent years was not the out-of-control boom like in Arizona and SoCal; they've been steady for decades.

North Carolina also has become a central place for two kinds of talent. I'm sure Charlotte will suffer, but there will not be a sudden exodus of all the highly-skilled bankers to other places. New banks will come to Charlotte to take advantage of the talent pool. The same will hold true if layoffs occur in the Triangle.

It also doesn't hurt that three of NC's biggest disadvantages have been minimized, which will help the state remain more likely to continue attracting businesses. (1) It's still blazing hot in summertime, but that deterrent is mitigated with the air conditioner, which was a rarity 40 years ago. (2) Its economy is now based more on the skills of people than on natural resources (banking & research instead of agriculture & textiles). (3) The threats of racial discrimination that might have deterred talented, non-white professionals from coming to the state have died down significantly.

Expect NC to keep growing. It'll be A okay.

[davidals]

If anything, I would think that the recession may simply make the numbers a little closer to accurate - if growth has slowed down a little, estimates in previous decades have tended to under-estimate the reality.

[DCMetroRaleigh]

bump

[cityboi]

Assuming that the economy dramatically improves over the next several years, I can see Greensboro's population well over 400,000 by 2030 and maybe even above 500,000. Today Greensboro is already near the brink of 300,000 and with the FedEx Hub, new interstates and other companies that have moved to Greensboro we should see a spike in job growth and new residents over the next 20 years. But like I said thats assuming the economy will be booming. Winston-Salem's population shouldn't be too far behind by 2030. It will be a situation where two cities less than 10 miles apart will both have populations between 400,000 and 500,000. So by then Greensboro and Winston-Salem will be a highly urban area that will definitely be able to support major league sports franchises and all the other things associated with major cities in the United States. With annexation in both cities, they are moving closer and closer together so the city limits of both cities will nearly touch. Greensboro and Winston-Salem will become an even more unified market.  The total Triad population by 2030 should be well over 2 million. I just hope that by 2030, Greensboro's skyline will reflect a city of 400,000 or 500,000 people. There are a several cities that have 500,000 people and have small skylines or almost no skyline at all. Virginia Beach, VA is one example and there are other cities with that population that are suburbs of larger cities. But I do see regional metro mass rail transit in the Triad by 2030.

predictions for Charlotte for 2030:

In 20 years, Charlotte will be one of the top 5 largest cities in the United States if the city's rate of growth keeps up. We should see even greater amenities in the Queen City by then including an even larger skyline. Expect to see more towers south of I-277 in South End. It could become Charlotte's version of mid town Atlanta. It will be one big skyline. In 20 years Charlotte will have a new stadium for the Carolina Panthers and it will be a dome. The light rail system will be expanded throughout the city and Charlotte will have an uptown streetcar system. In 20 years or less, I see Charlotte with a tower reaching 80-stories.

more predictions for Greensboro/Winston-Salem for 2030

- The Triad will have major league soccer
- mass rail metro transit
- a spike in white collar office jobs
- downtown Greensboro and Winston-Salem will have even more urban amenities.
- Greensboro and Winston-Salem will be even more well known nationally
- Greensboro will become a major distribution and logistics hub on the east coast.
- The two cities will have a large cluster of hitech manufacturing and research
- Greensboro will become a major hot bed for hosting major national sports events/tournaments at the coliseum.
- Both cities will have bigger skylines, but not to the level of Charlotte. Greensboro's skyline may have an additional 2 to 4 towers.   Maybe more but that really depends on the economic climate in Greensboro and the kind of jobs the city attracts. The FedEx hub and    new interstates and research park will have a positive effect on the city.

Edited by cityboi, 11 March 2011 - 12:57 PM.

[AirNostrumMAD]

^

Will the Triad be bigger than the Triangle?

[DCMetroRaleigh]

IN population, it would take a radical development for the Triad to become larger than the Triangle anytime this century.  Keep in mind that the Triangle CSA is now approaching 1.8 million. The Triangle's economy is driving its growth, and shows no sign of abating.

Edited by DCMetroRaleigh, 11 March 2011 - 12:28 PM.

[cityboi]

DCMetroRaleigh, on 11 March 2011 - 12:24 PM, said:

IN population, it would take a radical development for the Triad to become larger than the Triangle anytime this century.  Keep in mind that the Triangle CSA is now approaching 1.8 million. The Triangle's economy is driving its growth, and shows no sign of abating.

I agree, The Triad's economy would really have to take off but its not impossible. The Triangle only recently surpassed the Triad in population. During the last census, the Triad had more people. But the current trend is rapid growth in the Triangle and steady growth in the Triad. It will be interesting to see how much the FedEx hub, research parks, new interstates and downtown revitalization efforts effects the growth trends of Greensboro and Winston-Salem. After all several big companies moved to the area because of FedEx and at the time the hub hadn't even opened yet. Dell was one of those companies but unfortunately the Dell plant closed down in part because of the economy. I think there is a potential for some growth in the financial sector. Both Triad cities already have a bank headquarters (BB&T in Winston-Salem and NewBridge Bank in Greensboro) But I don't think the Triad will ever become  a powerhouse in the financial sector the way Charlotte has.

Edited by cityboi, 11 March 2011 - 01:08 PM.

[NCMike1981]

I have lived in various parts of The Triangle for all but about 5 years of my life and I must say it seems as if living in the Triad could be kind of neat. You'd be located in betweem Charlotte and the Triangle so I imagine the options within an hour or 2 drive as far as day trips are concerned would be fantastic. You'd be a bit closer to the mountains (especially the SW VA mountains) but still not too far from the beach (well the western Triad may be a bit of a drive to the beach). I personally think the Triad will definately come into it's own over the coming few decades, not to mention act as a link between Charlotte and the Triangle. I think that's part of what makes NC so awesome. You have the beautiful relatively unspoiled mountains (and a very cool city in Asheville), beautiful beaches (with a coastal "city" option in Wilmington) as well as the more subtle beauty of the rural piedmont with it's rolling hills and lakes/rivers plus 3 awesome metros to choose from to live/work/play. I definately think the piedmont will continue it's fast paced growth, hopefully more then just the sprawly suburban variety, the mountains and beach will continue to grow at a bit more leisurly pace (although coastal vacation home overbuilding is my worry for the coast). I honestly don't think there's any other place I'd rather be in the southeast. :-)

[aceboogie]

In 2030 I estimate Charlotte and Raleigh metros to be at least 3 million. I expect the Triad to be at 2 million. I expect NC to have a population of 12-13 million with 60-70% living in the big 3. I also expect the Piedmont Crescent to be one continuous urban area from Raleigh to Charlotte. I also expect for Fayetteville to be included in Raleigh's CSA and Hickory to be included in Charlotte's CSA.

I don't expect much explosive growth for Asheville. But Asheville doesn't need explosive growth but for its economy to continue grow at a healthy pace. Wilmington could be the "city" outside of the Piedmont. Greenville is another city to watch.