Charlotte-Douglas Airport (CLT) Expansion

[Urbanity]

I'd say the majority of analyst believe Charlotte would maintain the status quo, A significant amount thinks Charlotte will be reduced, and a couple believe Charlotte could grow.

 

Bolded emphasis mine.  I've yet to see but one analyst say that Charlotte (along with other hubs) could potentially be reduced, and that was qualified.  I'm interested in who else and what other firms make up the "significant amount" that you mention.  

 

To be frank I've seen more analysts and news mentions of Charlotte likely to benefit.

[15895]

If US Airways stayed independent, the smallest legacy carrier would risk its own dissolvency, and thereby risk CLT.  If not merging with American, then US Airways could merge with Delta or United, neither of which would need CLT as a hub.  So given the options, an American merger is definitely the least of evils, even if it leads to fewer flights.

 

 

That doesn't take away my worry about our flights to Europe and South America; Munich, 2X Frankfurt, Rome, Madrid, Dublin, London, Sao Paulo, and Rio.

 

 

Still, even if US Airways keeps most of its flights at Charlotte Douglas, international service could be at risk. If it makes more sense to connect European passengers through Philadelphia or Caribbean fliers through Miami in the new route structures, some flights could shift there, analysts say. Foreign carriers that are partners with US Airways in the Star Alliance, Lufthansa and Air Canada, also might choose not to fly to Charlotte anymore, since the new American Airlines would stay in the oneworld alliance. Lufthansa flies direct from Charlotte to Munich.

 

 

Read mhttp://www.charlotteobserver.com/2013/01/31/3825726/us-airways-american-merger-appears.htmlore here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2013/01/31/3825726/us-airways-american-merger-appears.html#storylink=cpy

 

 

 

 

There have been numerous, numerous articles for the past Year that I do not feel like sifting through as I know for a fact I've read them in the NY Times, Chicago Tribune, FT. Worth Star,etc. As I've said I believe for the past year, we could grow (Especially to American Strong holds such as Oklahoma city. Charlotte has no direct flights to Oklahoma city... So in theory, we could grow in destinations, flights, and passengers for a year round multiple daily flights to cities such as Oklahoma city and still lose service to an exotic destination. I like our exotic destinations and I do not want to lose them. Merger or Bankruptcy...

 

The only thing I can think of as Charlottes saving grace is American's widebody fleet. I wonder how well they utilize their long haul aircraft.

 

 

No doubt though, we will gain cities such as Oklahoma City. If US Airways gets approved for Washington DC - Oklahoma City, US will start Charlotte-OKC and probaby OKC to Philadelphia and Phoenix. Some stations just aren't worth opening for a couple of daily flights. A merger with American changes that.

Edited February 14, 2013 by AirNostrumMAD

[15895]

Bolded emphasis mine.  I've yet to see but one analyst say that Charlotte (along with other hubs) could potentially be reduced, and that was qualified.  I'm interested in who else and what other firms make up the "significant amount" that you mention.  

 

To be frank I've seen more analysts and news mentions of Charlotte likely to benefit.

 

 

Hot off the press from The Observer

 

And the merger would have a big potential impact on Charlotte Douglas International Airport. About 90 percent of the airport’s 700 or so daily flights are operated by US Airways, and more than three quarters of the 41 million passengers who use the airport are connecting from one flight to another, not starting or ending their trip in Charlotte.

Analysts at Fitch Ratings said Wednesday that the merger is an area of concern for hub airports, including Charlotte Douglas.

“As seen in recent mergers, some hub airports will likely be strengthened through industry consolidation while others are weakened,” they wrote. “While geographic location and separation helps support a rationale for hubs, it is still fair to ask whether maintaining as many as six hub airports at the same level of operations will be necessary to maintain an efficient single network.”

 

And Adie Tomer, an analyst with the Brookings Institution, has pointed out that Charlotte Douglas is by far the airport most reliant on connecting passengers. The city has the only major airport where more than half the traffic consists of connecting passengers, he said.

Parker and most analysts have said the Charlotte Douglas hub is safe, as the company needs a Southeast hub to counter Delta Air Lines in Atlanta and fill in a missing spot in the American Airlines map.

 

Last week, Charlotte Douglas aviation director Jerry Orr told the airport’s advisory committee he thinks being a hub for a major merged airline will mean greater opportunity for rapid growth and more international flights.

 

“Overnight, US Airways would have the opportunity here to add international service,” he said.

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2013/02/13/3853244/us-airways-american-airlines-set.html#storylink=cpy

 

 

 

Fitch is an interesting analyst as they rate the revenue bonds of our airport. But this article supports what I'm saying. The majority of analyst saying Charlotte will remained a large southeastern hub. While a noticeable amount of analyst have their doubts. I have yet to see anyone except for Jerry Orr say we'll grow our international portfolio. Again, as a hub, it's not a big hit to CLT... I just believe in a consolidated airline, our long haul routes could be at risk due to consolidation. Though I hope AMR has enough widebodies to throw around and spare.

[HopHead]

I'm less worried about the European routes than I am about the Latin America ones since that's more of a focus of the Miami hub. Here's my take on how this whole merger will play out with regard to the CLT hub.

 

1) Charlotte will gain domestic flights. Albeit Oklahoma City (who I don't think US Airways serves at all?) or some other cities. We may even see increased service at some existing destinations as well.

2) Flights from Charlotte to Dallas, Chicago and NY will be reduced. If you combine the US/AA flights to these destinations they would be in the double digits. This will likely be some concession the feds seek.

3) Charlotte will maintain its west coast nonstop flights to places such as San Diego, LA, San Francisco, Seattle, Las Vegas, etc. Other cities that have one-off cross country flights (i.e. that are not east coast hubs) will likely go away. With exception to JFK or Boston.

4) Charlotte will probably lose some Latin America/Carribean flights that it has today. Destinations like the Bahamas, Puerto Rico, Mexico City, Cancun, Jamaica, etc will continue. Some others may be on the chopping block. Cabo may be one I can think off off hand.. 

5) I think the European destinations such as London, Paris, Madrid, Rome will stay. May even gain a few new ones, especially if the International terminal gets built in the new few years. I think Raleigh would be very much in danger of losing their AA flight to London.

6) If (or when) American enters Asia, those flights will likely get funneled through NY or Chicago. Though, I wouldn't be surprised if a Beijing (or insert Asian city here) gets added to CLT. However, that would be well after AA enters the Asian markets. Just don't see our airport as the primary destination.

 

All in all, I think this plays in Charlotte's favor, which almost every industry analyst has indicated. I also don't think US Airways could stick around as an independent carrier for another 5-10 years either. They could easily get taken over down the road by United or Delta. The AA merger is the best case scenario, especially with Doug Parker at the helm who has been pro-Charlotte hub for years. Airfares on the other hand, well that won't be so nice. We all know less competition means higher fares.

[15895]

 

I'm less worried about the European routes than I am about the Latin America ones since that's more of a focus of the Miami hub. Here's my take on how this whole merger will play out with regard to the CLT hub.

 

1) Charlotte will gain domestic flights. Albeit Oklahoma City (who I don't think US Airways serves at all?) or some other cities. We may even see increased service at some existing destinations as well.

2) Flights from Charlotte to Dallas, Chicago and NY will be reduced. If you combine the US/AA flights to these destinations they would be in the double digits. This will likely be some concession the feds seek.

3) Charlotte will maintain its west coast nonstop flights to places such as San Diego, LA, San Francisco, Seattle, Las Vegas, etc. Other cities that have one-off cross country flights (i.e. that are not east coast hubs) will likely go away. With exception to JFK or Boston.

4) Charlotte will probably lose some Latin America/Carribean flights that it has today. Destinations like the Bahamas, Puerto Rico, Mexico City, Cancun, Jamaica, etc will continue. Some others may be on the chopping block. Cabo may be one I can think off off hand..

5) I think the European destinations such as London, Paris, Madrid, Rome will stay. May even gain a few new ones, especially if the International terminal gets built in the new few years. I think Raleigh would be very much in danger of losing their AA flight to London.

6) If (or when) American enters Asia, those flights will likely get funneled through NY or Chicago. Though, I wouldn't be surprised if a Beijing (or insert Asian city here) gets added to CLT. However, that would be well after AA enters the Asian markets. Just don't see our airport as the primary destination.

 

All in all, I think this plays in Charlotte's favor, which almost every industry analyst has indicated. I also don't think US Airways could stick around as an independent carrier for another 5-10 years either. They could easily get taken over down the road by United or Delta. The AA merger is the best case scenario, especially with Doug Parker at the helm who has been pro-Charlotte hub for years. Airfares on the other hand, well that won't be so nice. We all know less competition means higher fares.

 

 

I'd disagree with a few of your points, but I think overall you're on the money.

 

 

I think the Latin American destinations are much safer than the European routes. There is plenty of room for Charlotte to Mexico City, Cancun, San Juan, etc. Those will most likely never go away. Charlotte, with the exception of Mexico city, is a great gateway to the island destinations and has superior connecting traffic to the island destinations over Miami. A lot of these leisure destinations are low yielding and sun destinations. Charlotte has more connecting opportunities on top of cheaper operating cost. The Lat Am. flights we would lose would be on small aircraft that operate twice a week. no big hit at all.... That excludes Rio D. Janeiro and Sao Paulo which being business destinations I think are at risk. Charlotte carries a lot of connecting passengers from New York and Miami to rio and Sao. Also American has flights from Dallas also which also generates good traffic for the Charlotte flights.

 

 

European flights, I feel, are more vunerable as now instead of having just constrained Philadelphia and Charlotte, now there is flights to Europe from Charlotte, Philadelphia, New York, and Chicago and Dallas. The good news is Madrid is a British Airways/Iberia hub.So Madrid could stick around. The other good news is Miami can funnel passengers into Charlotte very efficiently which Miami bound passengers provide heavy lift for.

 

The routes I fear would be canned from Charlotte are Munich, Dublin, Frankfurt, and Rome. Alitalia is a OneWorld partner, however, their hub is Milan. On the flip side, If American has the aircraft to spare, they could keep these flights.

 

 

I'd be very, very surpirsed if Charlotte got an Asia flight. Delta has struggled with flights to Asia from Atlanta. Atlanta has a lot more local passengers AND nearly 2X busier operations than "American" at Charlotte.

Edited February 14, 2013 by AirNostrumMAD

[navigator319]

its done...

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/american-us-air-merger-gets-board-approval-sources-004007227--finance.html

[tozmervo]

Isn't CLT ridiculously cheap to move passengers through? Like, far cheaper than most airports? Seems like that alone would bring more flights here. After all, it's the bottom line.

[michaelef]

Great news, CNN mentioned Charlotte in the story of the merger and it didn't put NC after it!

Picture to follow soon

[Urbanity]

Hot off the press from The Observer

Two analysts (one of which says Charlotte hub is safe and the other talked about all hubs in general including Charlotte) does not a significant amount of analysts saying Charlotte will be reduced as you said....

 

Again - Most reports I've seen say Charlotte will at least remain fine and as is, and a few have suggested we will grow.

[HopHead]

Two analysts (one of which says Charlotte hub is safe and the other talked about all hubs in general including Charlotte) does not a significant amount of analysts saying Charlotte will be reduced as you said....

 

Again - Most reports I've seen say Charlotte will at least remain fine and as is, and a few have suggested we will grow.

 

Agreed. I'm not sure how "two" = significant. I was always taught in school that a couple, or three = few.

[15895]

Two analysts (one of which says Charlotte hub is safe and the other talked about all hubs in general including Charlotte) does not a significant amount of analysts saying Charlotte will be reduced as you said....

Again - Most reports I've seen say Charlotte will at least remain fine and as is, and a few have suggested we will grow.

American can still cut say Dublin Charlotte and add Oklahoma City - Charlotte... That'd be a lot more seats yearly meaning growth.

Most reports do say Charlotte, North Carolina will remain fine. I dont think the New York Times cares whether Charlotte, NC has flights to Dublin or not.

But Time will tell if we remain A Transatlantic gateway... And there are a lot more than 2 analyst. Im not posting article after article. My glasses aren't that rosy and my expectations are very realistic. To lose some longhual international flights and gain smaller Gulf cities, and heartland cities. Why is that so hard to believe?

Edited February 14, 2013 by AirNostrumMAD

[michaelef]

Photo proof of CNN calling us JUST Charlotte 

[ah59396]

^Someone call the IOC, we are ready for the big time.

[HopHead]

This is semi-off the merger topic... I'm curious. I wonder if the consolidation of the legacy US carriers down to 4, arguably 5, would open up for someone like Virgin Atlantic to do a more elaborate expansion in the US. To me this is a perfect opportunity for someone like that to come in and bring more competition. I know they only fly in major markets like NY, DC and San Francisco. But perhaps they would be open to more secondary cities like Charlotte, Tampa, etc. Obviously they would be more wide body aircraft oriented, so the choices would be limited, but still wouldn't be a bad thing.

[Urbanity]

American can still cut say Dublin Charlotte and add Oklahoma City - Charlotte... That'd be a lot more seats yearly meaning growth.

Most reports do say Charlotte, North Carolina will remain fine. I dont think the New York Times cares whether Charlotte, NC has flights to Dublin or not.

But Time will tell if we remain A Transatlantic gateway... And there are a lot more than 2 analyst. Im not posting article after article. My glasses aren't that rosy and my expectations are very realistic. To lose some longhual international flights and gain smaller Gulf cities, and heartland cities. Why is that so hard to believe?

 

I get you and I can't say we won't some flights.  Who can?  It's just you've seem to be more ringing the gloom and doom bell rather than being realistic about the merger since it was first proposed.

I agree that time will tell, but I'm squarely in the camp that Charlotte will likely benefit over the long term from the merger.

[tiblerbrit]

This is semi-off the merger topic... I'm curious. I wonder if the consolidation of the legacy US carriers down to 4, arguably 5, would open up for someone like Virgin Atlantic to do a more elaborate expansion in the US. To me this is a perfect opportunity for someone like that to come in and bring more competition. I know they only fly in major markets like NY, DC and San Francisco. But perhaps they would be open to more secondary cities like Charlotte, Tampa, etc. Obviously they would be more wide body aircraft oriented, so the choices would be limited, but still wouldn't be a bad thing.

 

Actually a 50% stake of Virgin Atlantic is being acquired by Delta to strengthen their transatlantic operations to/from Heathrow.

 

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/12/11/delta-takes-49-stake-in-virgin-atlantic-for-360-million/

[tozmervo]

Leave it to the Old Gray Lady to have a great infographic of the airlines' family tree. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/02/14/business/Airline-Consolidation-Continues.html

[michaelef]

Looks like North Carolina gets the American Hub again...it's just not in Raleigh this time. Another reason for them to dislike us.  

[southslider]

^Besides, RDU has one of them bureaucratic airport authorities.

[ssh214]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2XRjB09fu8

 

I will be pumped if this turns out well for Charlotte!

[Urbanity]

^Besides, RDU has one of them bureaucratic airport authorities.

OH! NO! YOU! DIDN'T!!!!!   

[15895]

Besides flights and routes, US Airways will more than double in size. I wonder if Charlotte stands to be a huge beneficiary from consolidated maintenance hangers, back office jobs, etc.

I'm not too familiar with what American has at St. Louis or San Juan and any other cities they may have office and maintenance jobs likewise I wonder if Pittsburg could lose any back office jobs they may have from US. Doesn't The Triad have a large US Airways Reservation center?

I can only Assume more than doubling the fleet size... Charlotte is smack dab in the middle of Chicago, Philadelphia, Dallas, Miami, DC, and Boston. I wonder if that'd be a benefit to maintenance jobs.

[eastsider]

The new American has launched a website about the combined airline

 

http://newamericanarriving.com/

[Dale]

Is this likely to accelerate capital improvements at CLT ?

[15895]

Is this likely to accelerate capital improvements at CLT ?

I wouldn't think so. The CIP is really being tied up by Streetcar. I think The news of the Panthers food and beverage tax would help CIP (to fund projects that could possibly cut from the CIP so property taxes won't go up as much) But not this merger news. I feel like the city council all-in-all view the airport CIP projects as a worthy economic investment.

Edited February 15, 2013 by AirNostrumMAD