Charlotte MLB Team Speculation

[15895]

Convert BBT stadium to MLS and MLB can go in first ward. Of course that won't happen but still would be cool

[kermit]

Yards at Charlotte Pipe

Piedmont Park at Asian Corners

I would be happy to have MLB, but I am happier with the Knights. 

[SouthEndCLT811]

Yards at Charlotte Pipe

Piedmont Park at Asian Corners

I would be happy to have MLB, but I am happier with the Knights. 

Reading about this today I was trying to think of a stadium location and Yards at Charlotte Pipe was the first place I came up with. 

[cltbwimob]

Let me introduce you all to Ken Woolums.  He is currently a baseball stats analyst for ESPN.  Although he normally does stats on players, he decided to create a statistical model to predict attendance in markets currently not served by MLB.  First an article with the methodology:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/5/17/4338410/finding-a-home-the-search-for-the-next-mlb-city-part-one

And then his predictions in 2013:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/6/21/4452550/the-next-mlb-city-the-top-10

The attendance model proposed in the first article predicted that in 2013, if a hypothetical major league team existed in Charlotte at that time, it would produce an average attendance of 29,380. 

I re-ran the numbers through his first algorithm (as seen in the first article) using population and GDP data from the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis respectively.  Although his second algorithm had a slightly stronger correlation between predicted values and actual attendance numbers, I did not use it because I thought it was based on a somewhat shaky premise. 

My calculations are based on 2014 metro population estimates, 2013 metro GDP estimates, and an MLB league median attendance of 30,096 fans per game.  Furthermore, since Ken found that nearly 46% of the variance in attendance was correlated to number of wins in a season, I calculated numbers for a bad team (70 wins), an average team (81 wins) and a good team (89 wins-same as Tampa Bay's five year average).  Here are the average attendance numbers I calculated:

1.  32,405 spectators per game (good team)

2.  30,120 spectators per game (mediocre team)

3.  26,977 spectators per game (bad team)

Given the numbers above, I decided to look at some markets of comparable size to Charlotte to see how the predicted values would compare.  Currently  Kansas City averages 32,639 fans per game, Cincinnati averages 30,867 fans per game, Milwaukee averages 31,988 fans per game,  and Pittsburgh averages 29,026 fans per game.  Given the numbers predicted by the statistical attendance simulator, and the aforementioned markets of similar size, I think it is reasonable to say that Charlotte would likely draw around 30,000 +/- 3,000 per game which is right at the 2015 league average. http://espn.go.com/mlb/attendance

Finally, I constructed and attached a comparison table (hyperlinked below) to show how Charlotte compares to current major league cities in the US in terms of population, size of the economy, etc.  Based on the data, Charlotte has a larger MSA than five of the current MLB markets, a larger economy than six of the current MLB markets, and is growing faster than all but four MLB markets. 

In conclusion, the numbers say Charlotte would be ready for the big leagues (pun intended) today if the opportunity arose.  However, league expansion/relocations likely will not occur for another 5-15 years.  In order to ensure Charlotte is a frontrunner in any expansion/relocation talks, this conversation needs to start today and continue until the opportunity for us to get a franchise presents itself.

MLB and Charlotte.xlsx

Edited July 16, 2015 by cltbwimob

[jednc]

That is true,but Milwaukee didn't have MLB until 1970? I agree though, that a "market" no matter how large needs to mature...which is why I wonder how Atlanta got the Braves in the mid-60's when the city was so small and the market as yet, unproven? Was it because the league foresaw the great growth of Atlanta (something which is certainly true of NC's cities now); or was it because a group of civic, sports-enthuasist, leaders pushed it? In any case, if MLB is still around in 10 years or so, I can't imagine that the MLB could ignore NC too much longer...

This was said about 10 years ago in this very thread.

Let me introduce you all to Ken Woolums.  He is currently a baseball stats analyst for ESPN.  Although he normally does stats on players, he decided to create a statistical model to predict attendance in markets currently not served by MLB.  First an article with the methodology:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/5/17/4338410/finding-a-home-the-search-for-the-next-mlb-city-part-one

And then his predictions in 2013:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/6/21/4452550/the-next-mlb-city-the-top-10

The attendance model proposed in the first article predicted that in 2013, if a hypothetical major league team existed in Charlotte at that time, it would produce an average attendance of 29,380. 

I re-ran the numbers through his first algorithm (as seen in the first article) using population and GDP data from the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis respectively.  Although his second algorithm had a slightly stronger correlation between predicted values and actual attendance numbers, I did not use it because I thought it was based on a somewhat shaky premise. 

My calculations are based on 2014 metro population estimates, 2013 metro GDP estimates, and an MLB league median attendance of 30,096 fans per game.  Furthermore, since Ken found that nearly 46% of the variance in attendance was correlated to number of wins in a season, I calculated numbers for a bad team (70 wins), an average team (81 wins) and a good team (89 wins-same as Tampa Bay's five year average).  Here are the average attendance numbers I calculated:

1.  32,405 spectators per game (good team)

2.  30,120 spectators per game (mediocre team)

3.  26,977 spectators per game (bad team)

Given the numbers above, I decided to look at some markets of comparable size to Charlotte to see how the predicted values would compare.  Currently the Kansas City averages 32,639 fans per game, Cincinnati averages 30,867 fans per game, Milwaukee averages 31,988 fans per game,  and Pittsburgh averages 29,026 fans per game.  Given the numbers predicted by the statistical attendance simulator, and the aforementioned markets of similar size, I think it is reasonable to say that Charlotte would likely draw around 30,000 +/- 3,000 per game which is right at the 2015 league average. http://espn.go.com/mlb/attendance

Finally, I constructed and attached a comparison table (hyperlinked below) to show how Charlotte compares to current major league cities in the US in terms of population, size of the economy, etc.  Based on the data, Charlotte has a larger MSA than five of the current MLB markets, a larger economy than seven of the current MLB markets, and is growing faster than all but four MLB markets. 

In conclusion, the numbers say Charlotte would be ready for the big leagues (pun intended) today if the opportunity arose.  However, league expansion/relocations likely will not occur for another 5-15 years.  In order to ensure Charlotte is a frontrunner in any expansion/relocation talks, this conversation needs to start today and continue until the opportunity for us to get a franchise presents itself.

MLB and Charlotte.xlsx

You are my new hero! Very impressive work!

[kermit]

^  Charlotte is FARR beyond what Atlanta was in the 1970s in terms of population and corporate juice. We also have one less major league team than Atlanta did then.  

[ah59396]

Yards at Charlotte Pipe

Piedmont Park at Asian Corners

I would be happy to have MLB, but I am happier with the Knights. 

 

I actually agree with your plight.  I love the Knights, along with the price and intimacy of minor league ball.  It's baseball the way it should be.

That said, MLB learned the hard way that the Verterans Parks of the 70's, holding 65k just don't do baseball justice.  Newer parks like PNC in Pittsburgh (shown above for some reason) are a great example of something I'd like to see in Charlotte if we did get a team. It has a capacity of like, 38k, which would be perfect for us, especially based on the projected attendance figures already posted here.

 

 

 

i do have a hard time believing we average 30k+ a game, unless we are really good.  I see Charlotte as more of a 22k-28k market right now, putting us in the bottom 3rd of attendance, but still north of the bottom five and the dreaded "19k and under club".

Edited July 16, 2015 by ah59396

[MilZ]

Let me introduce you all to Ken Woolums.  He is currently a baseball stats analyst for ESPN.  Although he normally does stats on players, he decided to create a statistical model to predict attendance in markets currently not served by MLB.  First an article with the methodology:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/5/17/4338410/finding-a-home-the-search-for-the-next-mlb-city-part-one

And then his predictions in 2013:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/6/21/4452550/the-next-mlb-city-the-top-10

The attendance model proposed in the first article predicted that in 2013, if a hypothetical major league team existed in Charlotte at that time, it would produce an average attendance of 29,380. 

I re-ran the numbers through his first algorithm (as seen in the first article) using population and GDP data from the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis respectively.  Although his second algorithm had a slightly stronger correlation between predicted values and actual attendance numbers, I did not use it because I thought it was based on a somewhat shaky premise. 

My calculations are based on 2014 metro population estimates, 2013 metro GDP estimates, and an MLB league median attendance of 30,096 fans per game.  Furthermore, since Ken found that nearly 46% of the variance in attendance was correlated to number of wins in a season, I calculated numbers for a bad team (70 wins), an average team (81 wins) and a good team (89 wins-same as Tampa Bay's five year average).  Here are the average attendance numbers I calculated:

1.  32,405 spectators per game (good team)

2.  30,120 spectators per game (mediocre team)

3.  26,977 spectators per game (bad team)

Given the numbers above, I decided to look at some markets of comparable size to Charlotte to see how the predicted values would compare.  Currently  Kansas City averages 32,639 fans per game, Cincinnati averages 30,867 fans per game, Milwaukee averages 31,988 fans per game,  and Pittsburgh averages 29,026 fans per game.  Given the numbers predicted by the statistical attendance simulator, and the aforementioned markets of similar size, I think it is reasonable to say that Charlotte would likely draw around 30,000 +/- 3,000 per game which is right at the 2015 league average. http://espn.go.com/mlb/attendance

Finally, I constructed and attached a comparison table (hyperlinked below) to show how Charlotte compares to current major league cities in the US in terms of population, size of the economy, etc.  Based on the data, Charlotte has a larger MSA than five of the current MLB markets, a larger economy than six of the current MLB markets, and is growing faster than all but four MLB markets. 

In conclusion, the numbers say Charlotte would be ready for the big leagues (pun intended) today if the opportunity arose.  However, league expansion/relocations likely will not occur for another 5-15 years.  In order to ensure Charlotte is a frontrunner in any expansion/relocation talks, this conversation needs to start today and continue until the opportunity for us to get a franchise presents itself.

MLB and Charlotte.xlsx

While, I do think this is great research, I still don't think I would trust comparing our new team/brand against well Kansas City, who just came off of a World Series appearance, Cincy, a long time established franchise with a history to match the other Cubs, Cards, and Brewers in a baseball crazy division, or the other team in their division, the Pirates, who have the same type of history and probably the most amazing Park in the game. It's hard to not imagine an unfortunately similar-level branding campaign than that of the Devil Rays in the 90s. Also I know Atlanta was mentioned as a comparison above, but they struggle for competitive attendance every year despite having a fan base built of and old Turner deal from Alabama to VA. 

That said, maybe it would work.   My pessimistic attitude is from fear of the worst case scenario, likely involving a habitual basement dwelling team locked into a fixed income. I think a bad team with low attendance would hurt Charlotte and make an awesome ballpark in 3rd ward obsolete.

[RaleighHeelsfan]

There was another article yesterday on ESPN about MLB relocation & expansion. The commissioner stated he is ready to expand MLB to over 30 teams. There was a list of about 6 or 7 cities he thinks are in the hunt…Charlotte was on the list. I just wonder how the triple AAA team would affect Charlotte getting a team in like 5 years. I would rather Charlotte get a relocation because if they can, the team will already be “built” if you will, and the Rays are already a solid baseball team. This would help greatly with the attendance figures everyone seems to worry about. An expansion team will be bad for years before competing. Plus, as someone noted above, the Rays are in the AL east and would put Charlotte up against the Red Sox and Yankees a lot!! Charlotte must have a ballpark uptown with our killer skyline in the background, like the knights. The cities listed in order were: Montreal, Charlotte, San Antonio, Portland, Las Vegas, Oklahoma City, Northern Jersey, Mexico City, and Monterrey.

[cltbwimob]

First let me say, this is a multi-year process.  There is a zero percent chance that there will be a team in Charlotte for at least the next two years.  Even if Charlotte were awarded a team today, it would take two years to build a stadium.  When adding in the fact that it will likely be at least five years (if not more) before any expansion team will be awarded to any owner plus the time it takes to build a stadium, one should expect a 2022-2023 time frame as the earliest any expansion team will take the field in any city.  Furthermore the three most likely relocation candidates Cleveland, Oakland, and Tampa Bay are locked into leases extending to 2023, 2024, and 2027 respectively.  In short, there will be no team of any variety, relocation or expansion, taking the field for a minimum of 8-10 years from now.  Therefore, we must base our analysis not on Charlotte in 2015 but Charlotte in 2025, even though I believe Charlotte currently has the metrics to support.  Charlotte in 2025 will likely have surpassed the 3 million mark in terms of population at that point, and the economy will likely be roughly the size of the San Diego or Minneapolis economy today, which, on both accounts, is very much sufficient for MLB.

Having said that, what we can not keep doing is dismissing the conversation outright because we believe Charlotte could not support a team based on what we know of Charlotte today.  If we as a community continue to take that tack, then when relocation/expansion time comes, Charlotte will likely not be a top candidate, not because the city does not have the metrics to support, but because we have let the naysayers dominate the conversation for so long, that it will be off the radar until it's perhaps too late.  That's why I say, this conversation needs to be cycled and recycled on the news, in the blogosphere, on Twitter, Facebook, and the like.  If it stays attached to the sports news cycle for the next several years, then I think that there will be enough of an undercurrent of support to place Charlotte in very strong contention.  Conversely, if the conversation is not maintained, or if it is continually dismissed as a bad idea, then we will be where we are now a decade from now...about a 10 years away from being able to support a team.  That's where we were in 1997-98 when we had a chance at landing the Twins, it's where we were in 2006 when we were mentioned as a possible site for the Marlins, and it's where we will be again if we allow naysayers to keep dominating the conversation and shifting the goalpost, or the foul pole as it were. 

Milz, you may be right, a team in Charlotte may very well scrape the bottom of the barrel and flop. We may never meet attendance projections and be the laughingstock of the MLB.  You must, however, consider the alternative. We may have a team that is a 90+ win/year perennial playoff contender.  If the Rays were to relocate, that's exactly what we'd have.  We may  also have a team that averages 30k-35k per game in attendance.  Unfortunately you never know until you have a team exactly how it will do; there is always risk associated.  If however, we continue to take the "throw the money under the mattress" approach, we may not ever get to enjoy the thrill of watching America's pastime played at the highest level in our own city.  I'd rather take the gamble.  If we constantly take the safe approach, then we will forever doom ourselves to mediocrity.  Risk is the essence of Charlotte, and it's the essence of America.  Neither would be as great as they are without people who were willing to take the impossible path-the path many say can not be done and should not be attempted.

I think the mid-2020s is when relocation/expansion will take place, and Charlotte needs to get the ball rolling now, not when the time is nigh.

Edited July 16, 2015 by cltbwimob

[RaleighHeelsfan]

Thank you CLTbwimob...by far best post on this thread. I will keep bumping it over the years. You are exactly right!

First let me say, this is a multi-year process.  There is a zero percent chance that there will be a team in Charlotte for at least the next two years.  Even if Charlotte were awarded a team today, it would take two years to build a stadium.  When adding in the fact that it will likely be at least five years (if not more) before any expansion team will be awarded to any owner plus the time it takes to build a stadium, one should expect a 2022-2023 time frame as the earliest any expansion team will take the field in any city.  Furthermore the three most likely relocation candidates Cleveland, Oakland, and Tampa Bay are locked into leases extending to 2023, 2024, and 2027 respectively.  In short, there will be no team of any variety, relocation or expansion, taking the field for a minimum of 8-10 years from now.  Therefore, we must base our analysis not on Charlotte in 2015 but Charlotte in 2025, even though I believe Charlotte currently has the metrics to support.  Charlotte in 2025 will likely have surpassed the 3 million mark in terms of population at that point, and the economy will likely be roughly the size of the San Diego or Minneapolis economy today, which, on both accounts, is very much sufficient for MLB.

Having said that, what we can not keep doing is dismissing the conversation outright because we believe Charlotte could not support a team based on what we know of Charlotte today.  If we as a community continue to take that tack, then when relocation/expansion time comes, Charlotte will likely not be a top candidate, not because the city does not have the metrics to support, but because we have let the naysayers dominate the conversation for so long, that it will be off the radar until it's perhaps too late.  That's why I say, this conversation needs to be cycled and recycled on the news, in the blogosphere, on Twitter, Facebook, and the like.  If it stays attached to the sports news cycle for the next several years, then I think that there will be enough of an undercurrent of support to place Charlotte in very strong contention.  Conversely, if the conversation is not maintained, or if it is continually dismissed as a bad idea, then we will be where we are now a decade from now...about a 10 years away from being able to support a team.  That's where we were in 1997-98 when we had a chance at landing the Twins, it's where we were in 2006 when we were mentioned as a possible site for the Marlins, and it's where we will be again if we allow naysayers to keep dominating the conversation and shifting the goalpost, or the foul pole as it were.

Milz, you may be right, a team in Charlotte may very well scrape the bottom of the barrel and flop. We may never meet attendance projections and be the laughingstock of the MLB.  You must, however, consider the alternative. We may have a team that is a 90+ win/year perennial playoff contender.  If the Rays were to relocate, that's exactly what we'd have.  We may  also have a team that averages 30k-35k per game in attendance.  Unfortunately you never know until you have a team exactly how it will do; there is always risk associated.  If however, we continue to take the "throw the money under the mattress" approach, we may not ever get to enjoy the thrill of watching America's pastime played at the highest level in our own city.  I'd rather take the gamble.  If we constantly take the safe approach, then we will forever doom ourselves to mediocrity.  Risk is the essence of Charlotte, and it's the essence of America.  Neither would be as great as they are without people who were willing to take the impossible path-the path many say can not be done and should not be attempted.

I think the mid-2020s is when relocation/expansion will take place, and Charlotte needs to get the ball rolling now, not when the time is nigh.

You are exactly right!

[Spartan]

So, how does this idea move forward? So far, only MLB seems to be pushing it. Nobody here in Charlotte seems to be a champion of advancing an MLB team.

[Skyline49er]

Where is that old chum...what was his name, oh yea, Jerry Reese?

[kermit]

So, how does this idea move forward? So far, only MLB seems to be pushing it. Nobody here in Charlotte seems to be a champion of advancing an MLB team.

that is the weird thing about this. No local investor is required, just a random billionare who likes baseball and wants an expansion team in a rapidly growing market. Its a repeat of the Bob Johnson story.

Edited July 21, 2015 by kermit

[MilZ]

Where is that old chum...what was his name, oh yea, Jerry Reese?

Appearantly shedding his Levine-esqe UP rep in a phone booth.

[Spartan]

As long as it's not Bruton Smith, then l'll allow the other billionaires to fight amongst themselves.

[birky]

I would hate to lose our brand new (and minor league-best) downtown ballpark.  And I think it would hurt 3rd ward, too.

[Niner National]

I would hate to lose our brand new (and minor league-best) downtown ballpark.  And I think it would hurt 3rd ward, too.

Turn it into an amphitheater. Put a stage in the outfield, expand seating down to the field, then have lawn seating where the field currently is. 

I don't know what else it could easily be retrofitted for, but I think this would work.

[nonillogical]

I would hate to lose our brand new (and minor league-best) downtown ballpark.  And I think it would hurt 3rd ward, too.

Turn it into an amphitheater. Put a stage in the outfield, expand seating down to the field, then have lawn seating where the field currently is. 

I don't know what else it could easily be retrofitted for, but I think this would work.

We've got one uptown already (it may not have much of a skyline view but it is a stellar venue). Why are we talking about losing BB&T anyway? If MLB came to Charlotte its still a long ways off. 

[dylansukkert]

Say we do get a MLB team in the future. Where do we put the stadium? Could it be possible to use the BB&T site? Maybe take some on the roads out beside the stadium, use the grass hill for extra room?

[cltbwimob]

Say we do get a MLB team in the future. Where do we put the stadium? Could it be possible to use the BB&T site? Maybe take some on the roads out beside the stadium, use the grass hill for extra room?

If you were to combine the BB&T site with the Woodfield at Graham parcel, and the parking lots, the area would be more than ample size for MLB,  Of course it would require the removal of Graham St, BB&T Ballpark, and the Woodfield apartments to make it happen, but the total lot size would be ~900ft x 730ft.

Basically the blue highlighted area

Edited July 21, 2015 by cltbwimob

[jednc]

Came to Atlanta to watch the Braves and Dodgers tonight and all I could think about was how awesome the experience would be in Charlotte. It kills me to think how hard it is going to be to get a stadium built in Charlotte while the Braves give up an awesome stadium in Atlanta to move out to Cobb Co.

[southslider]

 

Shift the new ballpark one block south between BofA Stadium and 2nd Street, then 3rd could be reconnected from Graham to Mint via the BB&T site, save Woodfield apartments, and eliminate the City's parking deck. New parking could be built where BB&T now sits, even below grade as that block is already lower for the current ballpark, and Bearden Park could be expanded another half block over the new parking.

[ah59396]

I posted this elsewhere, but I think slightly north of uptown along the light rail would be a great spot for a future stadium.  I copy/pasted PNC park onto a couple random lots off Parkwood to give you an idea...

 

 

[HopHead]

I think if you had to build a new MLB stadium in Charlotte, you definitely have to make accessible near a light rail stop. Target Field in Minneapolis does just that.. North of center city would the right idea in my opinion like ah59396 drew up. Though, something would need to give with that Davidson street exit off 277. That's an accident waiting to happen every time I've gotten off there.