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ruraljuror

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ruraljuror last won the day on September 15 2014

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  1. I think annual losses from hurricane damage in the US are about 10 times greater than losses from earthquake damage, and that gap is growing of course. In taking a jab at California, it would have made a lot more sense to talk about wildfires, which can cost the US quite a bit more per year than hurricanes it seems. The biggest problem for coastal land development in Florida isn't hurricanes, however, when sea level rise is conservatively estimated to bit off, chew up, and swallow between 50,000 and 1.5 million acres of Florida's coast in the next 25 years. On one hand, there's certainly a lot of value to be mined from developing coastal Florida in the meantime, and I almost don't begrudge developers for trying to get in and out in time if those companies were going to be responsible for covering the losses if/when they wait too long, but my guess is that most of the developers still building in Miami for example know that the government is going to bail them out at least once or twice before letting a fair portion of the city wash away, and my guess is that their guess will be right.
  2. Legend has it... For every Stick that gets cut down, 2 more sprout right up from the ground, And 3 new projects around town Each lose 10 stories and their crown.
  3. These statements are equally true of car lanes, which is why you either need to compare maximum capacity of both options or compare the actual/projected uses of both options in order to make an apples to apples evaluation. As I said, however, even then I don't think it's particularly meaningful to compare ridership numbers for modes of transportation where one option is 4 months old and the other has been entrenched and heavily subsidized for a century already regardless. I'm not personally familiar with this streetcar project so I don't know much about whether it's a vanity project or not. For context, did you think the AMP was a vanity project, as well? And I wouldn't say I have a moral objection here so much as a practical one. Government shouldn't adopt a freemium model for public services because it inevitably leads to worse service for those who don't buy into the up-sell. If people with more money have the option to opt out of poor public services, then they have no incentive to improve the shortcomings of those services but are very much incentivized to widen the gap in quality between the free option and the premium option in their favor. Look no further than what private and charter schools have done to the public school system, which used to be one of the biggest advantages the US wielded on a global scale as recently as the 1960s and 1970s. It took 50 years, but bad public schools are now everyone's problem, just as worse public roads would be. Sounds like you know more about the proposal and various options than I do - is the gas tax being eliminated? Currently, assuming that I fill up my 13 gallon tank once a week, I pay a little less than $170 in gas tax a year. Is that all going away? If not, by about how much would you expect it to be reduced? And while I think you're probably a little off base with your DMV comparison - I would guess the analogy would be more like letting someone cut in line in exchange for somewhere between 3 and 30 cents - your 'light bill payment for priority service during a power outage' hypothetical is really throwing me for a loop. For one, imagining a bidding war to get power reconnected during an ice storm with old people and poor people falling to the back of the line in exchange for like a couple hundred bucks strikes me as a bit dystopian. Don't get me wrong, I'm sure the poorest among us are already at the back of that line more often than not even without a priority service option, but seeing the concept in writing being used as a positive example in support of the point you're trying to make was not something I was expecting. What do you consider roads to be if not a public utility?
  4. Looks like you're comparing apples and oranges. If you're going to use the maximum capacity for singular car lane density, then you need to use the max capacity of streetcars too. Alternatively, you can look at the actual passenger figures for the street car and compare them to actual/estimate figures for how many passengers used that same street lane during the same time period and/or the year before, but even then it's a bit of a stretch to think that the first 4 months of streetcar usage data are going to reflect the long-term utility and success of the project. But isn't that kind of a problem for public utilities like roads? Can we have a toll lane where users pay a small fee in order to jump the line at the DMV, or the permitting offices, or when voting? Would it be ok in your opinion to let some people pay a small premium to get priority access to the public school of their choice, or priority service if their power lines get taken down in a storm? In my experience, the old adage that 'a crime for which the only punishment is a fine is really only a crime for the poor' seems to apply just as well to fees and tolls.
  5. The dollar hit a two-decade high against other major currencies last month (October 2023). Unemployment rates have been under 4% for the entirely of 2023 so far, and have twice registered at 3.4% - which is the lowest US unemployment average recorded since the 1960s. US GDP figures posted 2 days ago came in at an annualized rate of 4.9%, which is better than we've seen since the mid 1980s with the exception of the quick pandemic rebound when the lockdown economy was jump started in 2021. Further, by 2025, it's forecast that about 25 million more people will work from home than did in 2020, which will affect new office construction. Further, the interest-rate hiking campaign that Trump appointee Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has implemented over the past 20 months in response to global inflation (which I think have been largely effective) puts US commercial construction rates at almost double what they were prior to the pandemic, which will affect new hotel, office, and residential construction across the board. All that to say, I actually agree with you that the economy is likely to soften somewhat in 2024, for one because the economy is so hot right now that cooling down is all but inevitable, but to say that the economy is currently collapsing seems to me like a pretty big misunderstanding of the big picture here, to say the least. Please do check my facts, though. One of us is sure to learn something.
  6. Here's a video of Biden stumbling up stairs last week: https://www.foxnews.com/video/6339032005112 Looks to me like he's got a spring in his step on the long walk to the podium and is actually jogging more than shuffling. He does a pretty athletic job of catching himself and recovering when he stumbles as far as I can tell, too. Is that the shuffling you're talking about? Here's another video of Biden riding a bike from a couple months ago. Not sure I've ever seen Trump on a bike, but it's hard to imagine to say the least:
  7. This is a funny take. Whether or not you agree with the Fed's rate hiking campaign over the last 16 months, which was designed to combat inflation amplified by a white hot job market following the initial COVID crash, the campaign does seem to have had its intended effect. Inflation is is at 3% over the past 12 months, which is below average for the last 40 years, the US job market has calmed but is still producing historically strong numbers averaging more than 250,000 new jobs a month in 2023 so far (I think 2022 may have been even better), and economic forecasters who have long been calling for recession 'over the next year' have been consistently changing their prognostications toward a more positive outlook - pushing back the onset of the forecast economic downturn and predicting far less severity and duration. See this from Morgan Stanley last week, for example - or just read the Fed's own statement when they made the latest rate hike you referenced in your post: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/morgan-stanley-lifts-2023-us-growth-forecast-expectation-infrastructure-2023-07-21/ In sum, complaining about the rate hikes is fair - certainly from a pro-labor or first-time homebuyer position, at least - but complaining about how they're likely to stall or cancel some tower projects doesn't make any sense given that those rate hikes are being credited with lessening the possibility and severity of predicted economic downturn, which would have stalled and/or cancelled a lot more tower developments than another quarter point hike in the overnight interest rates will, of course.
  8. Borrowers who put down less than 20 percent will still pay more in total fees for their mortgage because they will pay a private mortgage insurance premium in addition to their GSE fees. So if the cost of mortgage insurance is added to the GSEs’ pricing grid, the borrowers’ costs will track their risk as one would expect: those with lower credit scores will pay more than those with higher credit scores, and those with higher LTV ratios will pay more than those with lower LTV ratios. Despite the recent coverage, then, FHFA is not raising fees on borrowers with good credit to lower them for those with bad credit. It is raising fees on loans there is little reason to discount so that it can better serve those who need the help. While FHFA is also raising fees modestly on the GSEs’ core business, this increase is paying almost entirely for higher capital requirements, not the cross-subsidy. https://www.urban.org/urban-wire/no-fannie-mae-and-freddie-mac-arent-penalizing-people-good-credit-help-people-bad-credit
  9. Does anybody know how I might find the QUICKBOOKS PREMIER customer service number? Or maybe the booking number for either Swiss Air, Alaska Air, or American Airlines? Thanks in advance!
  10. Not going public enables developers and those in the know an opportunity to buy up some neighboring land to later sell/develop as amenities and infrastructure needs grow if the park is successful.
  11. Nashville Zoo pulls in about a million guests a year on approximately the same acreage as Storyville, and my guess is the zoo operations and maintenance budgets are significantly bigger. Cheekwood pulls in about 400k annual guests on about 1/3rd the acreage. There's clearly a fair amount of demand for outdoor self-guided park experiences with few traditional rides, but to give these numbers some context, even comparable rollercoaster-heavy regional theme parks only pull in 2 to 4 times more guests than the zoo, and the tickets cost twice as much. There are lots of other factors that will come into play as to whether or not this park will ultimately be a success should it come to fruition, but as always, there's a pretty good chance that those who don't like much of what they see in this proposal are simply not in the target demographic and are not expected or frankly intended to be excited about Storyville.
  12. Are you under the impression that only liberals get abortions? I'd bet that the vast majority of people getting abortions have no particular political affiliation. After that, I'd guess the next largest population of abortion-seekers are those who oppose (or are surrounded by people who oppose) birth control and sex education. I guess we'll find out as we now enter the 'be careful what you wish for' part of this clown show that you seem to be cheering on for some reason.
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