2004 population

[johnhowell]

Metropolitan definitions: http://www.census.gov/population/es...-city/List1.txt

2004 county/city data: http://www.census.gov/popest/counti...EST2004-01.html

2004's population for cities and counties that make up the hampton roads

Currituck County: 22,067

Gloucester County: 37,262

Isle of Wight County: 32,774

James City County: 55,502

Mathews County: 9,226

Surry County: 6,970

York County: 60,885

Chesapeake city: 214,725

Hampton city: 145,951

Newport News city: 181,913

Norfolk city: 237,835

Poquoson city: 11,700

Portsmouth city: 99,291

Suffolk city: 76,586

Virginia Beach city: 440,098

Williamsburg city: 11,465

2004 metropolitan population: 1,644,250

2000 metropolitan population: 1,576,370

increase of 4.3% or 67,880

[urbanvb]

Suffolk's population has really shot up there. It is actually the 2nd fast growing locale in the state.

[Mike D]

I thought Norfolk's population was closer to 242,000.

[urbanvb]

Wasn't it not so long ago that Chesapeake edged out Norfolk as the larger city with just over 200k? Now I see Norfolk has MUCH more than that.

[johnhowell]

I thought Norfolk's population was closer to 242,000.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It probably was 6 or 7 years back.

Wasn't it not so long ago that Chesapeake edged out Norfolk as the larger city with just over 200k? Now I see Norfolk has MUCH more than that. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I don't think so. Chesapeake has been growing at a good rate while Norfolk's population has been stagnant.

[Mike D]

It probably was 6 or 7 years back. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I checked the 2003 estimates on the Census web site. They showed Norfolk's population at about 241,700 for the 2003 estimate, which is higher than the 2000 Census popualtion.

[Glassoul]

Wasn't it not so long ago that Chesapeake edged out Norfolk as the larger city with just over 200k? Now I see Norfolk has MUCH more than that. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Nope. Chesapeake has never had a population larger than Norfolk. At it's peak in the early 1980's, Norfolk had over 300,000 people. But after the defense cuts and people moving to the burbs in Virginia Beach and Chesapeake, it continually fell until it got down to about 234,000 in 2000.

The interesting thing is that the census bureau predicts that Norfolk will lose population in between the 2000 and 2010 period, but it now strongly appears as though that will not be the case. With all of the growth in DT, Ocean View, and some other areas, I wouldn't be surprised to see a substantial gain of 12,000-15,000 people, especially if the Navy Base ends up with those New England ships and subs.

The 242,000 number you see is just an estimate from the Census Bureau using data collected by the IRS each year during income tax season. In this case it was for 2003, and the 2004 (and all subsequent non-census years) number of 238,000 is based on these data points, which is far more volatile than the official census readings conducted every 10 years due to incomplete data, housing market blips, etc. etc. The definitive answer won't be known until 2011, after the results from the 2010 census are analyzed. I would be very surprised if Chesapeake had more people than Norfolk after the 2010 census, though after 2030 all bets are off.

[johnhowell]

The 2000 estimate was 234,403. The 2003 estimate was 237,547.

[Mike D]

At least Norfolk's population is going in the right direction - up, even if it's a modest gain.

[Former Resident of HR]

Nope. Chesapeake has never had a population larger than Norfolk. At it's peak in the early 1980's, Norfolk had over 300,000 people.

I would be very surprised if Chesapeake had more people than Norfolk after the 2010 census, though after 2030 all bets are off. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think the 300K peak was in 1970. Norfolk has been in decline since then. And being as VA Beach was one of the fastest growing cities on the East Coast during the 80's, I think that Norfolk's loss was due to their gain more than anything else (like military cuts). I found this link that has a table of Norfolk's population from 1970-now (table) and you can see that by 80 Norfolk was in serious decline.

I think that Chesapeake will continue to grow at a good clip and then run into the same brick wall that VA Beach is facing. When prices soar and already bad traffic gets worse, less people see the point and move elsewhere. Notice how VA Beach was supposedly going to be near 500K by now but in reality it is stagnating. There is only so much land left and the irresposible ways that it is being developed will bite Chesapeake and Suffolk hard. Look for Suffolk to pick up the Chesapeake excess and for the burbs to head further south and west in the next two decades.

Not to be a doomsdayer but VA Beach is looking very worse for the wear in areas like Aragona, Green Run, Rosemont, etc... Unlike some areas of Norfolk that are old and rundown, there is no hope for revitalization in areas full of townhouses. Much of VA Beach's older housing is disposable and without a housing and redevelopment authority, I don't see how they can transform these large tracts of areas from becomming the slums that many already are well on track to becomming.

[Glassoul]

I think the 300K peak was in 1970.  Norfolk has been in decline since then.  And being as VA Beach was one of the fastest growing cities on the East Coast during the 80's, I think that Norfolk's loss was due to their gain more than anything else (like military cuts).  I found this link that has a table of Norfolk's population from 1970-now (table) and you can see that by 80 Norfolk was in serious decline.

I was off by a decade, but my point is still made that Chesapeake has never had a population larger than Norfolk. I think Chesapeake will eventually slow in it's growth as is inevitable after experiencing fast growth (what goes up, most come down), but I still forsee a day sometime in the next 20 years where Chesapeake will likely have more people than Norfolk.

I also don't hold quite the same gloomy view about VA BCH as you do. We can already see the beginnings of urbanization in places like Town Centre. I don't think that a RDHA is necessarily required to redevelop areas, and again TC is being done without an Housing Authority. Also Housing authorities bring with them their own set of problems, not least of which can be abuse of rezoning and land confiscation for dubious reasons.

As for Suffolk, it's too early to tell how they'll end up. Yes the northeast area of the city is growing up in a more typical suburban area, but there has been more of an effort to do some different things with the layout. For instance, the movie theatre, shops, and medical facility were developed in tangent along the housing. Theres a golf course literally running through the neighborhood, etc. Also Suffolk is making an effort to redevelop it's downtown base, which is also nice IMO, and I hope they can keep the small town center feel to it.

People complain a lot about suburbia, but I think that in the last 15 years better thought has been put into neighborhood design and community development in those areas. Developers are just following the market, and so you have to respect that many people enjoy living in the suburbs. Hell, most everyone here grew up in them, and I and many others have an affection for those neighborhoods. It's too easy to point to the suburbs as the root cause of all evils in development and write it off, but that is an over-simplification. Ask yourself, would Virginia Beach have enjoyed the same growth it did in the 80's and 90's if it didn't offer that type of lifestyle? I highly doubt it.

[urbanvb]

Also, I have been told by a realtor friend that b/c housing prices are so high in VB that folks have started moving into the Aragonas and Green Runs of the city. There they are buying a little cheaper and renovating and adding on to these homes which in effect adds value to their homes. So we have neighborhoods slowly on the mend and getting to be better places to live.

[willy]

Also, I have been told by a realtor friend that b/c housing prices are so high in VB that folks have started moving into the Aragonas and Green Runs of the city.

And even in those two neighborhoods the cheapest house is roughly $170K - $180K with less than 1300 sq. ft. I kind of feel sorry for first time home buyers if you don't have a lot of money to spend. I know in my neighborhood, home prices have shot up $70-$100K since I bought about a year and half ago. When we were looking then, people were bidding 10-15K over asking price and waiving all inspections and asking for nothing to be fixed. They were even willing to pay the sellers closing costs. So basically, the seller just had to pack and move out with no out of pocket expenses and a LOT of money in their bank accounts.

[willy]

Quote from Mayor Fraim's State of the City Address on February 2, 2005

"People are Coming Home to Norfolk as fast as housing becomes available, and this has boosted our population from 234,000 in 2000 to over 242,000 today."

[urbanfan]

Quote from Mayor Fraim's State of the City Address on February 2, 2005

"People are Coming Home to Norfolk as fast as housing becomes available, and this has boosted our population from 234,000 in 2000 to over 242,000 today."

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yea, I would have to agree with those numbers. Alot of new housing and projects are occuring all over Norfolk, not just downtown. With all of the downtown renovations to old buildings turning them to condos, future condos, developments in Ocean view, Harbor walk, and others I would say that a modest increase is very unlikely. Remember, the 2004 census is done with modeling information and by out of towners, who are not as familiar with the area. I wouldn't be surprised if this area as a whole will be over the 1.7 - 1.8 million mark by 2010.

[johnhowell]

"People are Coming Home to Norfolk as fast as housing becomes available, and this has boosted our population from 234,000 in 2000 to over 242,000 today."

I'm not sure where he got those numbers from but okay.

[willy]

I'm not sure where he got those numbers from but okay.

Me either, but he said it I didn't.