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About Jeeper12

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  1. Jeeper12

    The Vue

    No, if anything I think it will be worse. I expect Charlotte and other lagging markets to follow the trend that's accellerated in the larger markets. After waiting around for 1-2 yrs in places like Miami, Vegas and Atlanta, developers and their banks are finally capitulating to market forces and drastically reducing prices to increase sales. So I think it follows that while you may see a big increase in Charlotte condo sales over the next 6-12 months, it probably won't happen without big price cuts to stimulate demand, especially for developer owned condos. IMO this recovery will take seve
  2. Jeeper12

    The Vue

    ^ I agree. I assume deposits at the Vue are 5-10% but the market has moved down much more than that so why stubbornly defend a small amount of already lost capital ? Keep an eye on what's happening with the Vue in Orlando. Similar if nto related project that closed about half the bldg in '08 for approx. $350/sf then a few last year for about half of that, then nothing. Now the developer is bankrupt and all the remaining units are to be sold in bulk next week at an auction. The minimum bid is reported to be around $100/sf and at least one local expert was quoted as saying he didn't expect
  3. Jeeper12

    The Vue

    It will be very interesting to see what strategy they adopt. If they were ready to close today I would expect them to offer existing contract holders 20-25% discounts in order to minimize their "walks". Savvy buyers will expect as much and it's a smart strategy for the developer. The cost of replacing those buyers is enormous measured a number of different ways. If they close most of their contracts and cut pricing on the balance to those same levels I think they'll maintain momentum and get the best financial outcome. If it were 12-15 months ago they'd probably hold their pricing and ho
  4. Sorry to address this (below) once again but I had just breezed through it quickly last night. Having looked at it again I have to say that you don't need to harbor much skepticism for ST to dismiss each and every point of proof (all 5) offered by this poster that ST is "happening". If Tony has blast permits (which I don't doubt) then the cost of sending out blast notices is that of the envelopes and stamps to do the mailer. This post looks more likely to have been authored by a skyscraper booster than a buyer but that's obviously just my opinion. I conceed it's theoretically possible
  5. No need to rehash the FAA issue. I posted the Tennessean article a few weeks ago that clarified why the FAA had made flight path changes. There was no mention of ST though the Bellsouth Tower was mentioned. The change didn't at all sound driven by a particular building but rather seemed intended to keep relatively low flying aircraft away from densely populated areas, ie. downtowns. Can you imagine the FAA implementing flight path changes for a yet to be sold high rise lacking any apparent debt or sufficient equity to be constructed ? Not even ole Brownee would let that happen.
  6. Interesting how you speak so conclusively about what is obviously only a theory. We can agree to disagree. You guys can try and read as much positive spin into his website reservation updates as you'd like. Anything is theoretically possible but after almost 3 years Tony has yet to sit on any good news and it's simply not plausible to me that he would. In any event it seems very unlikely that he'll sustain a pace that would get him to 260 presales (it's generally much slower after the sales center has been open for 90 days) anyway and I still don't think he'd find financing at that level
  7. ^ You are dead on. The minute Tony has a total sold number that he is proud to post it will be posted ("sold" rather than "reserved"). Until then I think the only thing we can gleen from the website activity is that he fears even more skepticism if the public were to know how many (or few) he actually had. I thought it was interesting that when recently interviewed by WW he declined to say how many sold units he had at that point, instead offering only that he hoped to have 100 sold by the end of this month. No news is very unlikely to ever be good news from a guy prone to use almost any m
  8. I think this is the FAA change that some had been reported as being driven by ST. http://www.tennessean.com/apps/pbcs.dll/ar...EWS01/707140343 No mention of any building in this article today other than Bellsouth. FAA is apparently now enforcing a 3 mile clear area around downtown just as they are trying to do throughout the country.
  9. You must have some inside info that I am without. From my perspective it seems he is up to his eyeballs trying to figure out how plan A is going to work. I doubt that has left a bunch of excess time for him to devise a totally new development strategy for that parcel should he be forced to cancel. If the project economics could have sustained a cut I think he would have done that long ago to avoid being in this position today. The marginal cost of adding a floor is much less than the average cost per floor. And the highest non-penthouse floor obviously sells for the biggest premium relat
  10. Reread that article and you'll see it does still appear to be hidden. He didn't confirm any number with WW only that he "hoped" to have 100 at the end of the month which suggests he has less than that now...Ole Tony keeps moving the cheese on us.
  11. What an interesting headline. WW always seems to miss the news in his own articles. Here's my take: Tony still hasn't confirmed a single solitary contract. How many did he have as of coffee ? Either WW didn't ask the question or Tony couldn't provide any details about how the project will be funded. Tony has excavation permits in hand and sounds perfectly willing to begin digging a deep hole knowing that he's yet to reach the half way point to his presales requirement. BTW, his self imposed presale requirement is only a guess, as are the contract deposit terms, until he gets a
  12. We had a spirited discussion here 3 months ago about the issues associated with Tony disclosing his lender and equity sources. I think everything I wrote then still holds today but I'm really surprised he is apparently still unable to introduce a construction lender, even one only committed subject to a mountain of conditions related to sales, equity investments, cost budgets and the like. Oh well, maybe my skepticism is just getting the best of me and we will become more enlightened about this tomorrow morning.
  13. ^ I'm not under any illusion that reporters can force the developers to do or say anything but the last part of your first sentence is the key. So far, WW hasn't shown a willingness to ask those questions. It would be refreshing and quite useful to the public, I think, if he provided some clarity on the status of contracts (not reservations) relative to the pre-sale requirement that the equity and lending sources will require. Also, last year Tony announced that in November the Jones LaSalle guy was going to start searching the world over for the $300 million of debt and equity needed to b
  14. I've given WW a fair rash about how he's covered the ST, particularly his last few articles. I hope he cuts to the heart of what everyone is interested in understanding and doesn't just become a PR conduit for Tony's marketing group. Given all the speculation and lack of information about contract conversions, equity and lending sources, etc. interviewing Tony ought to be a reporters dream right now. I hope he delivers a good article.
  15. ^ No, but I believe his old reservation agreement had all the original reservations expiring this past March 31st. Not sure why he would bother going to the trouble to convert everyone to a new reservation (expiring 9/07) rather than just going straight to a hard sales contract. Very strange.
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