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UTgrad09

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UTgrad09 last won the day on January 23 2017

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About UTgrad09

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  • Birthday 07/03/1985

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    Smyrna, TN

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  1. I tend to agree. But then again, we do need to build that new roadway through your house.
  2. I don't think it was necessarily an official declaration, but rather one of those strong-arm negotiating tactics -- but from what I can remember, Tony called their bluff. I doubt they would have actually gone through with it, because the lawsuits wouldn't make it worth it. It was worth it for acquiring the land for the MCC, but for a simple (but large) parking garage? No way. As far as what grounds -- unfortunately the criteria needed to use eminent domain seem to be rather loose and ambiguous. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelo_v._City_of_New_London
  3. I think Tony is saying/doing all the right things to make this happen -- but I don't know if it will be enough. I can understand why some people have an issue with the overall proposal. If this were a private lot, there would be little to stop it, IMO. But this is Metro land...and therefore any deals are subject to more scrutiny (even though Metro has proved time and again that they make poor decisions when it comes to land deals). The biggest issue of this entire project is not displacing the homeless or taking away valuable downtown green space. It's that there isn't any competition. It's basically a no-bid deal that was proposed by the developer. So in terms of fairness, I can see how some may say "hey, I didn't realize THAT was available"....and they'd have a very legitimate complaint. This may not be the type of precedent that we want the city to establish with public land -- even if we like this project and find it to be beneficial to the city overall. As ruraljuror alluded to, a lot of the opposition (aside from, perhaps, homeless advocates) simply don't want that tower there. For whatever reason. But I'm almost certain it's not that "it would be displacing the homeless!" or "we just don't have enough green space downtown!" I think a lot of us can see right through that charade. But people that just catch a simple news blurb or headline? They're probably more susceptible to something that tugs at their heart strings (only us development freaks let 65 story buildings tug at our heart strings). First it was about the homeless. And when the homeless services center was proposed, then it was about the green space, and how we need to just reimagine it (as if that is going to do jack $h!# to address why the current park isn't usable for anyone that isn't homeless). Personally, I'm on the fence on how kosher this land swap deal is. I think the positives definitely outweigh the negatives, especially with this new Anne Dallas Dudley Park. I think Tony covers all of the bases, except the one where no one else is bidding on the land or submitting a competing proposal. Don't get me wrong, I like Tony, and everything he has done for downtown -- but I think we all know he wants to develop this property so he can basically own Church St. He's still looking for Signature, and that's not going to be found in SoBro or The Gulch. Then again, Metro forced his hand in developing 505 because they wanted a garage (and they were planning to use eminent domain)...so I think he was very gracious to share his *prime* lot with them for the good of the city. So maybe you could argue Metro kind of owes him one.
  4. True, although I will say the recent trend has been that June has been bigger than July. This is only the second time since 2010 that July bested June.
  5. This is DOA. Don't get your hopes up.
  6. I'm sorry, but I'm not a big fan of the random window placement design that we're seeing in a lot of architecture today. I don't want a glass box, and I don't mind asymmetry, but I just....don't like this look.
  7. One is located 15 miles north in Farmington (which is technically Ogden MSA, but it's physically closer to downtown SLC), one is in downtown SLC, and one is about 9 miles south of downtown. You have to remember that the corridor from Provo to Ogden is more populated than most people think. The SLC CSA has 2.6 million people, 2.4 million of which are in four consecutive counties covering about 100 miles of continuous development along I-15 that is 1-15 miles wide. It would be like if you took all of Middle Tennessee's population and shoved it into a tight corridor between Clarksville and Manchester.
  8. So I was being a nerd and going through the BNA numbers back to 2003, and I noticed that there was pretty steady passenger growth from FY 2003-2007, before the crash (not surprising). We almost hit 10 million total passengers before the crash (we were on pace in 2008). Ultimately we wouldn't hit it for another 5 years (FY 2013). So I plugged the numbers into Excel to see what the trajectory would have been had we not had the dip in 2008. The results surprised me a little bit, as they were a lot closer than I thought. The forecast was 16.23 million, while the actual was 17.17 million. Not bad for 12 years of forecast (though the data it was based on was pretty steady for a 5 year period). The high/low prediction was 16.49 mil/15.97 mil. Then I thought about the BNA official forecast of 23 million passengers by 2032 and how all of us thought that seemed to be almost absurdly low, considering the meteoric growth. So I plugged in all the numbers from 2003-2019 and ran a forecast to 2032. With a lot more differing data points, this model has a rather large difference between the upper and lower confidence values. The forecast number is 42.01 million, which I think is a bit high, but not pie-in-the-sky if the city's profile continues to rise (and those numbers may be bolstered by more international traffic). The low confidence is 24.92 million (which is still above the BNA prediction by 2 million) and the high confidence number is an astounding 59.10 million, which is pie-in-the-sky unless we become a hub for multiple airlines. That number would be in the current JFK/SFO stratosphere. I.....don't see any way that happens. The 42 million number would probably assume we become an Orlando/Vegas level tourist destination. I'll attempt to include the files for your viewing pleasure. BNA 2003 to 2007 growth plus forecast.xlsx BNA 2032 forecast.xlsx
  9. I don't disagree with any of that. I was trying to convey that there are a number of perspectives when it comes to the issue. For the homeless or the homeless advocates, this could be perceived as an attack on their rights, and more evidence that the cold-hearted city wants them out of sight, out of mind. For the downtown condo resident, this could be perceived as a win-win scenario where the ends justify the means, where the problem of the park is replaced by something more appealing, and the homeless benefit with a services center not far away. It just depends on who you talk to.
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