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Hey_Hey

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Hey_Hey last won the day on September 20 2015

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About Hey_Hey

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  1. It’s also interesting when looking at the rate of sales for the Four Seasons versus 505. Height-wise they are very similar, but the Stay Alfred deal in 505 may have doomed the condos from a quick sellout perspective. The takeaway may be to go more high end for these condos, which is somewhat unfortunate. However, that may be the economic reality.
  2. That quick sellout bodes very well for more high end condos in Nashville. They definitely tapped into a segment of the market that was in demand as evidenced by moving that many units that quickly. Maybe on the heels of this we can get another couple high end condos to be built as well.
  3. I suspect there will be future opportunities for Tesla factories in Nashville. With this latest factory, Fremont, Shanghai, and Germany they will still only have the capacity to make ~2.5-3 million cars/year worldwide. They may very well add another US factory or two in the next 5 years.
  4. Keep in mind that those aren't percent tax rates, they are the rates for every $100 assessed value. The assessed value for residential properties in Tennessee is 25% of the appraised value. So a house that is appraised at $400,000 will be assessed at $100,000. The new tax rate of $4.155/$100 assessed value would mean a tax bill of $4,155. That works out to a tax percentage rate of 1.04%.
  5. TriStar is acting as a counterbalance to Vandy for pretty much everything right now, and they will continue to expand into the few areas that only Vandy offers now. Trauma, stroke, cardiac, pediatrics, certain transplants and cancer care have all been substantially updated in the TriStar system over the last 5-10 years. Ascension is expanding service lines to a much lesser degree, but they are growing through mergers. The name of the game in healthcare is expansion and consolidation. Vanderbilt was all alone in the market up until very recently (although they are massive), so they need to create a network that funnels referrals and attracts patients from outside the city. Vanderbilt just bought UMC in Lebanon from CHS and they’re expanding into Rutherford now, so they are getting on the same train. Don’t be surprised if we see a few more one-offs fall to one of the big three after coronavirus subsides. Williamson Medical Center, Cookeville Regional, Northcrest in Springfield and Maury Regional would all be targets. Small facilities are getting hammered by the coronavirus and is putting them in really bad financial positions. Being bought out may be the best plan for them.
  6. This year is going to have a big asterisk beside it. Even once the coronavirus pandemic is over, which may not be for several months, there’s going to be lagging air travel that will months since people aren’t going to just start traveling immediately. I really wish I could go into the airport and see what it looks like half empty, and I haven’t been on an airplane that wasn’t at least 90% full in ages. It’s got to be surreal.
  7. I would take it to Atlanta over driving. I hate the drive to Atlanta. Amtrak is almost never faster than driving, but it sure is a lot more pleasant than driving. I’ve taken Amtrak several times to Chicago on two different lines, and it was generally a very nice experience. While Atlanta’s public transit could be better, Uber/Lyft are still options when transit isn’t viable in certain circumstances.
  8. My favorite place to do this is along Music Row. Ample on free on street parking and a plethora of rideshar cars within a couple minutes of requesting a ride. The ride into downtown from there is $6-7 or so and fast.
  9. Great news for the region and BNA! This will surely cement Spirit’s long term position at BNA. There’s no way of knowing this now, but I can’t help but wonder if this is the the first of many new WilCo relocations in lieu of Nashville given the current mayor’s curmudgeonly attitude toward corporate relocations.
  10. It’s actually probably more than that, but there are also people that move away. The 100 number is incorrectly reported in the media as the number of people moving here. The correct way to report that number is by saying the area is gaining 100 people a day in population when including births and deaths and people moving into the area and out of the area.
  11. I hope Franklin/Brentwood/Williamson will step up and welcome any businesses that Cooper isn't gung ho about. I would prefer that they locate to the core, but I would rather them locate in WilCo than go to another metro area. The growth for Williamson seems aggressive. Per this prediction Williamson will roughly equal Rutherford for the second largest county in the metro area. I would be concerned about Williamson's ability to match that growth with appropriate infrastructure improvements, and I wonder if that will check the growth a bit. The two counties that seem to me to be somewhat under predicted would be Davidson and Robertson. I suspect Robertson is going to really boom over the next 10. It has great connectivity to Nashville with I-24 and I-65 both being options, and there is still massive amounts of unused land. It also will attract people working in both the Nashville area and Clarksville area. I think Davidson County estimates are already on the low side. While I can't prove it before the 2020 census results, I think the census bureau may have been undercounting the duplexes/2-on-1 houses that have proliferated around Nashville since the end of the Great Recession and can't help but think Davidson will add more than 24% to its population over that time period. A big unknown in my mind is Cheatham County. Cheatham's growth has been artificially slowed because of an anti-development/density political leadership. If that mindset remains in place then I agree with the population projections. However, if that mindset changes I could easily see Cheatham County doubling in growth. Ashland City is as close to Downtown Nashville as Franklin is and is primed for explosive growth if the leadership desires it.
  12. I don't really know what to make of all the economic development news from the city lately. Maybe Cooper is trying to call different companies' bluffs and attract them without city incentives. To be honest the city component of these economic development deals are fairly minimal. The state is the biggest player in terms of shear monetary value of the incentives. It seems like I have read that the Nashville incentives are something like $1000/year/employee for five years (those details may be off somewhat), so even a large office of 1000 people will only result in $1 million/year of benefit to the company. In the grand scheme of things the business climate, cost of living, ability to attract talent, and commercial real estate prices are much, much more significant factors in the overall analysis. However, companies want to go where they are desired, and if $$$ is the only way to show that desire then maybe we'll lose out on these deals for that reason.
  13. A general rule of thumb is that a condo’s monthly rental rate should be roughly 1% of the market value. There are all sorts of exceptions to this (Nashville may actually be more like 0.75% because of expected appreciation in prices), but it gets us at least in the ballpark of what rents should be. So a $500/month rent would equate to a $50,000 sales price, a $2000 rental price would equate to ~ A 3-bed penthouse condo would probably sell on the open market for $2 million,which would equate to a monthly rental of $20,000, so these penthouse units may actually be a relative steal.
  14. The big question for 2020 will be if/when the MAX grounding grounding is lifted. I don’t know how much more Southwest can grow as long as the MAX planes are unavailable. Allegiant will have a much larger presence, and Spirit will be here for the entire year. However, for us to meaningfully grow I think we have to see Southwest increase their daily flights since they are so big at BNA.
  15. I’m the one that got the Dakotas mixed up. They blur in my head. I also did not get the Peoria flight, and it looks like the Grand Forks flight is a special flight one time only like Sean mentioned. These flights can have pretty big implications for Nashville. These are pretty clearly setup to bring people to Nashville for leisure. Assuming they get just 125 people on each flight, that means we will have over 1000 people coming into Nashville each weekend on just these flights. It’s crazy to think, but the people Allegiant brings with this announcement could effectively fill a hotel like the new Embassy Suites downtown.
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