Hey_Hey

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Hey_Hey last won the day on September 20 2015

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About Hey_Hey

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    Nashville, TN

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  1. Nashville Bits and Pieces

    The trip down Broadway is shocking in regards to how far it has come! It was desolate and fairly run down. Imagine what people will think of it in another five years and so much more of Broadway is built out, Demonbreun Hill was......interesting......I didn’t realize how kitchsy it was previously. It was a 1990s Music Valley Drive.
  2. Nashville Bits and Pieces

    We were at historically low crime rates in 2013-14, but since then there has been a definite uptick after years of steady decline. While I’m not a criminologist, I don’t think there’s any question that something has seemed to change the last 3-4 years. Random chance does not explain an increase in murders from 40-50 in 2013-14 to ~110 in 2017. Especially when several cities across the US have seen a similar uptick. Is it the opioid drug trade? This does coincide with the explosion of heroin as opposed to prescription pills when prescription practices were changed. It also seems to coincide with several high profile police shootings. Is it related to discontent with the status quo in urban neighborhoods? Beats me, but to say there hasn’t been a dramatic uptick in the last 3-4 years over where we were is putting your head in the sand.
  3. Nashville International Airport

    I wish they would get back at them by making BNA a focus city with 15-20 destinations. That won't happen, but it would be great if they did. My first thought was similar to yours. Southwest dominates the Orlando traffic, and there is plenty of demand for a 1x daily to MCO year round with 2x daily in the peak months. They already have 1x in peak months so it isn't a huge increase.
  4. Nashville International Airport

    This will definitely open up additional options for travelers to Atlanta. However, Atlanta may turn into a feeder airport for southwest in Nashville. I can’t imagine 5x daily flights would be filled with people only traveling from Atlanta to Nashville or vice versa. I suspect that these planes will be filled with people making connections, more commonly in Nashville than in Atlanta. There are a handful of airports that are served from Nashville that are served from Atlanta, and three or four airports are served from Atlanta but not from Nashville.
  5. CBD/SoBro/RutledgeHill/Rolling Mill Hill Projects

    The current owner would definitely care what was spent when it comes to negotiating sales price. The market value of the current building may very well be to a point that the finances just don't work for a potential purchaser to buy and tear down. That's the reason we haven't seen any large-scale buildings razed other than the Lifeway building (which is operating under a different set of economic realities given the scope of the entire project).
  6. Nashville International Airport

    Could this flight be targeting leisure travel from Trenton to Nashville? Their other additions were Jacksonville, Myrtle Beach, and Charleston.
  7. 505 CST - 545 feet - 45 Floors - U/C

    Did they have any prices listed? Any promotional items you could upload?
  8. MSA South - Williamson & Rutherford Counties

    This is really good news. I had heard speculation and rumors that Delek would move their HQ to Texas after they sold Mapco in 2016.
  9. I've thought River North was their only option in Nashville, but on the heels of the Nashville Yards announcement of their 750,000 sq foot office building today I may be changing my mind. While River North would give them a huge area of contiguous land, they could probably also make their campus within easy walking distance of Nashville Yards (Southwestern CBD). They have announced that they will need up to 8 million square feet, although that will take a decade or longer to fully build out wherever they locate. Here is what I see: Already announced (1.9 million sq ft): Nashville Yards Phase I office: 750,000 sq ft Mainland at KVB Roundabout : 400,000 sq ft Endeavor Deja Vue property: 350,000 sq ft 5th & Broad: 385,000 sq ft That would be almost 2 million sq ft in office space already announced and would allow them to begin massive operations within two or three years. That still leaves ~6 million square feet to be built, but I think we could get that as well. Obvious targets of additional office with my estimated sq feet (5.8 million sq ft): Nashville Yards additional office: 500,000 sq ft Turnberry site adjacent to JWM: 600,000 sq ft Liff Properties: 1.25 million sq ft Tennessean Property: 1 million sq ft Giarratana property at roundabout: 350,000 sq ft Demonbreun Hill redevelopment: 500,000 sq ft Market Street Property along Demonbreun b/w 11th and 12th: 400,000 sq ft Whiskey Kitchen property: 350,000 sq ft AME Church property at KVB roundabout: 500,000 sq ft Gibson Guitar property at Church and 11th Ave N: 350,000 sq ft Building out all of these buildings would provide 7.7 million square feet by my estimates and would stretch from the KVB roundabout to Church street which is roughly 3/4 mile in distance. It would also extend up Demonbreun Hill and provide Amazon a natural location for their music and entertainment divisions to be housed. It would provide a mixed used "Amazon Campus" of roughly 1/4 sq mile (150 acres) with residential, office, hotels, entertainment, shopping, groceries, cultural amenities, and public transit. The majority of the campus would be within 1/2 mile of either of the two transit tunnel stops. As compared to River North, this "Amazon Campus" would be woven into the fabric of the urban core of Nashville instead of having it's own enclave away from downtown. While River North would allow them to start with a clean slate, this location would allow them to utilize infrastructure that is already in place.
  10. Nashville Bits and Pieces

    That is likely true. While I don't buy into the notion that the hotel boom will cause a crash of AirBNB prices (I think they are different products and target somewhat different visitors), I could easily see a 10-15% correction of prices. However, even a 10-15% drop in prices could disrupt several of these owners' financing plans. Another risk to current owners is the potential for legislation from the state that would mandate the city allowing STR without limitation. Opening the flood gates for STRs in these neighborhoods could provide significant downward pressure on those currently operating as Type II rentals.
  11. Nashville Bits and Pieces

    I’m not so sure. Much of the new construction that has been built was sold at prices that only make sense from a STR perspective. For example, on Sigler/Hawkins streets in Edgehill just outside the Gulch there have been houses sold that are priced in the $900,00-1.2 million range. From a rental perspective, that property would need to have revenue of around $60,000 to roughly break even (assuming a loan). That’s $5000/month to just break even, and more like $7500/month for it to make any sense for the owner (there has to be some type of positive cash flow). Those types of numbers can be found with STRs, but the long term rental market can’t match those revenue targets. I’m afraid we’ve had lots of people who saw a way to make a quick buck and bought at prices assuming that can only be financially feasible with AirBNB rental income.
  12. How will the Amazon HQ 2 change Nashville?

    It's not the large scale buildings that would grind Nashville's codes employees and process to a halt, it would bring an incredible building boom that would accompany the increase in population. We're just shy of 20,000 residential units being built in the MSA yearly now. Amazon creating 50,000 jobs within five years would also bring at least another 50,000 spinoff jobs over a similar time frame. Of course, that's just the jobs themselves. Many of those jobs will be filled with people who will have family. In the end, I could see us building an additional 10-15,000 residential units annually over a ten year period above what we are doing now. Metro Codes can barely keep up at this point, let alone a 50% increase in the number of permits being pulled.
  13. Senior people don't want to move to new cities, and that's not something unique to tech. Senior people have spouses, kids, dogs, and equity in their homes. Moving disrupts all of this. I don't think there's anything that is necessarily un-appealing about Nashville to tech people, it's just that Nashville doesn't have a deep bench of junior people already here that will become senior people. I'm not convinced that HQ2 will be the major tech headquarters either. I'm sure it will have tech, but Amazon's shear size requires massive amounts of people that support the non-tech side. For example, maybe they foresee this new headquarters being the logistics center for Amazon where they manage all of their airplanes and trucks. Maybe they will use this as their compliance headquarters for government and financial filings. If it is in Nashville it would make sense for them to move all of their Prime Music employees here. They could probably have 5000 employees serving in a shared services center like we've seen with UBS, Warby Parker, and others that have located in Nashville.
  14. This is reminiscent of the Nova car snafu in Latin America.