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Everything posted by Hey_Hey

  1. There has to be more density than what is shown in those pictures. There’s no way they are going to be able to fit 8500 people in those buildings is there?
  2. Another international option that is easy to forget about is Air Canada through Toronto. I don’t think it provides anything that JFK or ATL don’t, but at least it’s another option. I believe BNA now has nonstop service to 55 destinations on Southwest (and a few more rumored to be announced soon), so the vast majority of domestic destinations are nonstop. Southwest was already going in heavy on BNA pre-COVID, but I believe they will accelerate that even more when compared to other airports post-COVID. They pulled a lot of capacity out of the system, and when they redeploy those aircraft on routes they are going to focus even more strongly on their growing markets. The connections through BNA are up significantly post-COVID which helps support additional nonstops that otherwise wouldn’t be available.
  3. I'm really optimistic about how BNA will come out of the pandemic and economic downturn that we have seen for a couple reasons. First, economic downturns seem to always realign cities and regions because it exposes weaknesses and tends to reinforce strengths. We saw this happen after the 2008-2010 downturn with places like Nashville, Raleigh, and Austin really surging and capturing much of the growth that developed in the recovery. Those three in particular pretty clearly jumped into a new category post-financial crisis. While I think this is true for the regions, I think it also hold true for airlines and other sectors of the economy as well. If you're leading an airline (distribution company, financial firm, or logistics operation) and are now looking to redeploy planes or assets that were mothballed during the pandemic you will likely use that opportunity to evaluate where they will not only be most utilized in the near term but also the long term. So, let's assume Southwest is looking to beef up one of their stations. Will they choose a place that is currently larger but with anemic growth, or will they choose a place that might be slightly smaller but has a much faster growth rate? I bet they will be more likely to choose the city with more potential in the near to medium term. That slightly smaller but fast growing city is Nashville (or Austin and Raleigh in the case of Delta). Secondly, there is a general consensus developing that business travel will be slower to recover than leisure travel. In other words, a place like Boston is going to fall further than places like Orlando in terms of total flights and passengers. Fortunately for Nashville, it has developed into a leisure destination and supports a good number of primarily in-bound city pairs that residents of Nashville are also able to take advantage of. Allegiant has really leveraged that in-bound traffic to develop nonstop flights to places that Nashville couldn't support on its own, and I would suspect we will continue to see that happening. Five years from now BNA won't be a top 15 or 20 airport, but I could see it moving from #31 to #25-27 (jumping places like Portland, Dulles, Midway, and Washington-National).
  4. That’s why I specifically mentioned the Boring Company. They are using a somewhat new approach to tunneling and just built a considerably longer two tunnel/three station system for the Las Vegas convention center for a total of $49 million. It sounds like they are now getting close to expanding the project in Las Vegas as well. Their tunnels are small bore, so you can’t put a train in them, but you can put moving sidewalks and regular vehicles through them. It may not make sense to spend $100 million on it, but would it make sense to spend $30 million on it? Probably so, especially since the marginal cost over a shuttle system would be much smaller than the $30 million price tag. I would also add that if they do a shuttle system they have to use something other than the typical vehicles used for parking lot runs or hotel runs. They need to invest in larger, more spacious and modern buses that are electric so they get rid of the exhaust around people.
  5. I don’t think this has been posted on here yet. Allegiant announced the addition of four additional destinations to/from BNA: -PSM (Portsmouth, NH) -BOI (Boise, ID) -ALB (Albany, NY) -MFE (McAllen, TX) All will be twice weekly destinations and begin in May. That should bring the total destinations from Nashville on Allegiant to 32 (excluding the two week Rapid City flight for Sturgis).
  6. The airport authority needs to speak with The Boring Company about making an underground connection to the satellite terminal. They are able to do underground work for remarkably less money than other entities. That distance is similar to the underground tunnel at DTW that is serviced by moving sidewalks. They could also look at doing a tram through it, but that would be substantially more money.
  7. I understand that there is more to it than just paving a five foot wide slab of concrete, but that is a fairly shocking number. It may be that it costs that much, and if that were the case then I think the city needs to be very strategic in where they put a sidewalk. I am a huge fan of sidewalks, but at some point they can become so pricey that the money could be spent elsewhere more effectively. An example: The AMP had a price tag of roughly $174 million and would have provided transportation to a large number of people. For that same cost, the city could have built sidewalks along 55 miles of roads. Would the 55 miles of sidewalks been an improvement? Absolutely, but I would argue The AMP (even with all of its well documented limitations) would have been more impactful and beneficial for the city’s transportation network.
  8. It is crazy to me that it costs $3.2 million per mile of sidewalks.
  9. I thought Amazon had already announced Cincinnati as their hub 2-3 years ago. If that is correct, I could see them having operations here, but I can’t imagine they would have anything resembling a hub operation anywhere in the regional vicinity of Cincinnati.
  10. I don't know if there is a way that we can diversify our telecommunications hubs any, but this clearly illustrates a weakness in our system. I doubt Nashville is the only place that has something like this either. As time goes on this becomes increasingly critical infrastructure. For our household we are entirely dependent on the internet and cell phones for communication and information gathering. In its absence we are completely blind. That being said, the structure of the AT&T building held up remarkable well. It seems like the telecom infrastructure survived the blast and only went offline a few hours later. I'm not sure if battery backups finally went down, if it was water damage or something else, but it wasn't directly related to the blast effect from what I can tell. Last point: I predict this will lead to the closure of Lower Broadway to automobile traffic within the next year. This episode is going to serve as a wake up call for our local PD and Emergency Preparedness people about the risk that Lower Broad presents. If this RV bomb goes off on a Friday night on Lower Broadway we are dealing with four digit casualties and triple digit deaths. Fortunately, that is not what this person was looking to do, but I really don't want to wait for someone to come around with that motivation.
  11. I don't think it's the rate that shocked people, it's the pace at which it increased. Relatively speaking, Nashville will still have a reasonable overall rate. However, tax rates are assumed to be fairly stable, so budgets and mortgages are built around them. As tax rates are lower then sales prices on houses will likely rise a bit more to keep the total cost of ownership (principal + interest + taxes) relatively stable. For example, if someone purchased a property for $500,000 then they would expect to pay $2245/month for their mortgage assuming they financed 100%. They would have paid $337/month in taxes. With the increase that monthly tax bill increases to $452. That's an extra $115/month that is being spent, and people are going to feel that. For landlords that can decrease their monthly cash flow by 25%, and for families that can mean one less long weekend vacation per year. If there are slow and steady rate increases along the way then planning can happen for families, businesses, and landlords. With rapid increases it becomes much, much harder, and there is also the significant risk of an anti-tax reaction that could potentially be spawned.
  12. I find it really interesting that even at the peak of travel pre-COVID BNA didn’t have direct access to PHX on AA. However, now that we are 40% normal (or whatever the actual number may be) we suddenly get access to it. It may be an indication that airlines are going to rethink everything and start from scratch as opposed to just replacing the routes that have been lost. I view this as a good thing for BNA and Nashville since faster growing places will probably benefit from a ground up rebuild. Southwest may be the one driving this the most at BNA. For example, they already announced SJU’s return despite them announcing it for the first time immediately prior to COVID.
  13. I came across this article by accident and thought others might be interested in reading. I’m sure things in LA aren’t as bad as portrayed in the article, but Nashville is mentioned prominently as being an alternative to LA/Hollywood for many of the entertainment industry heavyweights. I do think there is a heavy dose of reality in the article even pre-COVID, and I’m sure things are worse to some degree now. Regardless of how significant the actual pipeline from LA to Nashville is, it does get Nashville’s name in front of people across the pond. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8631063/Hollywood-Apocalypse-rich-famous-fleeing-droves.html
  14. It’s also interesting when looking at the rate of sales for the Four Seasons versus 505. Height-wise they are very similar, but the Stay Alfred deal in 505 may have doomed the condos from a quick sellout perspective. The takeaway may be to go more high end for these condos, which is somewhat unfortunate. However, that may be the economic reality.
  15. That quick sellout bodes very well for more high end condos in Nashville. They definitely tapped into a segment of the market that was in demand as evidenced by moving that many units that quickly. Maybe on the heels of this we can get another couple high end condos to be built as well.
  16. I suspect there will be future opportunities for Tesla factories in Nashville. With this latest factory, Fremont, Shanghai, and Germany they will still only have the capacity to make ~2.5-3 million cars/year worldwide. They may very well add another US factory or two in the next 5 years.
  17. Keep in mind that those aren't percent tax rates, they are the rates for every $100 assessed value. The assessed value for residential properties in Tennessee is 25% of the appraised value. So a house that is appraised at $400,000 will be assessed at $100,000. The new tax rate of $4.155/$100 assessed value would mean a tax bill of $4,155. That works out to a tax percentage rate of 1.04%.
  18. TriStar is acting as a counterbalance to Vandy for pretty much everything right now, and they will continue to expand into the few areas that only Vandy offers now. Trauma, stroke, cardiac, pediatrics, certain transplants and cancer care have all been substantially updated in the TriStar system over the last 5-10 years. Ascension is expanding service lines to a much lesser degree, but they are growing through mergers. The name of the game in healthcare is expansion and consolidation. Vanderbilt was all alone in the market up until very recently (although they are massive), so they need to create a network that funnels referrals and attracts patients from outside the city. Vanderbilt just bought UMC in Lebanon from CHS and they’re expanding into Rutherford now, so they are getting on the same train. Don’t be surprised if we see a few more one-offs fall to one of the big three after coronavirus subsides. Williamson Medical Center, Cookeville Regional, Northcrest in Springfield and Maury Regional would all be targets. Small facilities are getting hammered by the coronavirus and is putting them in really bad financial positions. Being bought out may be the best plan for them.
  19. This year is going to have a big asterisk beside it. Even once the coronavirus pandemic is over, which may not be for several months, there’s going to be lagging air travel that will months since people aren’t going to just start traveling immediately. I really wish I could go into the airport and see what it looks like half empty, and I haven’t been on an airplane that wasn’t at least 90% full in ages. It’s got to be surreal.
  20. I would take it to Atlanta over driving. I hate the drive to Atlanta. Amtrak is almost never faster than driving, but it sure is a lot more pleasant than driving. I’ve taken Amtrak several times to Chicago on two different lines, and it was generally a very nice experience. While Atlanta’s public transit could be better, Uber/Lyft are still options when transit isn’t viable in certain circumstances.
  21. My favorite place to do this is along Music Row. Ample on free on street parking and a plethora of rideshar cars within a couple minutes of requesting a ride. The ride into downtown from there is $6-7 or so and fast.
  22. Great news for the region and BNA! This will surely cement Spirit’s long term position at BNA. There’s no way of knowing this now, but I can’t help but wonder if this is the the first of many new WilCo relocations in lieu of Nashville given the current mayor’s curmudgeonly attitude toward corporate relocations.
  23. It’s actually probably more than that, but there are also people that move away. The 100 number is incorrectly reported in the media as the number of people moving here. The correct way to report that number is by saying the area is gaining 100 people a day in population when including births and deaths and people moving into the area and out of the area.
  24. I hope Franklin/Brentwood/Williamson will step up and welcome any businesses that Cooper isn't gung ho about. I would prefer that they locate to the core, but I would rather them locate in WilCo than go to another metro area. The growth for Williamson seems aggressive. Per this prediction Williamson will roughly equal Rutherford for the second largest county in the metro area. I would be concerned about Williamson's ability to match that growth with appropriate infrastructure improvements, and I wonder if that will check the growth a bit. The two counties that seem to me to be somewhat under predicted would be Davidson and Robertson. I suspect Robertson is going to really boom over the next 10. It has great connectivity to Nashville with I-24 and I-65 both being options, and there is still massive amounts of unused land. It also will attract people working in both the Nashville area and Clarksville area. I think Davidson County estimates are already on the low side. While I can't prove it before the 2020 census results, I think the census bureau may have been undercounting the duplexes/2-on-1 houses that have proliferated around Nashville since the end of the Great Recession and can't help but think Davidson will add more than 24% to its population over that time period. A big unknown in my mind is Cheatham County. Cheatham's growth has been artificially slowed because of an anti-development/density political leadership. If that mindset remains in place then I agree with the population projections. However, if that mindset changes I could easily see Cheatham County doubling in growth. Ashland City is as close to Downtown Nashville as Franklin is and is primed for explosive growth if the leadership desires it.
  25. I don't really know what to make of all the economic development news from the city lately. Maybe Cooper is trying to call different companies' bluffs and attract them without city incentives. To be honest the city component of these economic development deals are fairly minimal. The state is the biggest player in terms of shear monetary value of the incentives. It seems like I have read that the Nashville incentives are something like $1000/year/employee for five years (those details may be off somewhat), so even a large office of 1000 people will only result in $1 million/year of benefit to the company. In the grand scheme of things the business climate, cost of living, ability to attract talent, and commercial real estate prices are much, much more significant factors in the overall analysis. However, companies want to go where they are desired, and if $$$ is the only way to show that desire then maybe we'll lose out on these deals for that reason.
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