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Hey_Hey

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Everything posted by Hey_Hey

  1. That’s really anemic growth for Nashville. Just a few years ago (circa 2013-2016) we were growing at over 35,000 residents per year. What’s odd is that the growth seems to have actually sped up in the last few years compared that prior time, although that may be more of a function of the type of growth (buildings, high profile companies, etc) and not significant numerical growth. A few questions: 1. Has Nashville’s growth actually declined that much or is this inaccurate? 2. Has the cost of living changed the income/wealth of people moving here? Are those 17,000 new people generally higher income and the lower income residents are having to look elsewhere? 3. What does the future hold? Will we see a resurgence of growth rates again?
  2. It looks like BNA is adding yet another airline with multiple desinations. Breeze Airways is beginning nonstop service to five new destinations from BNA as part of a larger national expansion of service. Flights start May 26, 2022, to the following destinations: Tulsa (TUL), Oklahoma City (OKC), Charleston (CHS), Hartford (BDL), and Akron/Canton (CAK). TUL and OKC are twice weekly. TUL is ThursdaySunday and OKC is Friday/Monday. CHS, BDL, and CAK are four times weekly on Thursday, Friday, Sunday, and Monday. https://www.flybreeze.com/destinations/Nashville
  3. Great infill, and the fact that these are micro units hopefully indicates that they will be a bit more affordable. Put me in the camp of preferring 5-10 buildings of this height over 2-3 buildings of 30-35 stories. I prefer the address to play the prominent role in the name, but that may butt up against the wishes of marketers. With all the names floating around I can’t keep them straight. At least with the address I can think of a location. I know exactly where 505 Church is located. Most people have no idea where the Harlowe is located.
  4. A couple thoughts on this: 1. We can't forget property taxes, especially when comparing Nashville and cities in Texas. Tennessee has dirt cheap property taxes while Texas has high property taxes. On average, Tennesseans pay roughly 0.6-0.7% of their house value in taxes every year while Texas pays 1.6-1.7%. On a $750k house that equals $4875 annually ($406 monthly) in Tennessee and $12,375 ($1031 monthly) in Texas. (Truth be told, those rates for both states are likely lower now after the rapid run up in prices, but the difference in scale is the same.) That $625 difference in monthly costs is pretty substantial and creates a situation where a house that costs $935k in Tennessee has the same cost of ownership on a 30 year mortgage as a house worth $750k in Texas. Homebuyers may not even realize that this is happening, but over time the property tax difference is going to be priced into the market. The same is true when comparing Tennessee to Georgia, although the difference between the states is less the difference between Texas and Tennessee. 2. The Nashville MSA grew at ~21% from 2010 to 2020. That compares to the Atlanta MSA at 15%. At the same time, and likely more impactful, it seems Nashville's job mix went from a more equal blue collar/white collar mix from to being more white collar/no collar. That brought an influx of people with substantially higher incomes and net worths into the market which drives the prices up. The biggest economic drivers in the 80s and 90s was likely automotive with the development and growth of the Nissan plant in Smyrna and Saturn plant in Spring Hill. Beginning in 2000-2010 we saw that shift to more finance, corporate headquarters, and healthcare administration as companies like Nissan relocated here and HCA, CHS, and other healthcare companies exploded and their headquarters grew. Beginning in 2015 or so we have seen the tech sector explode as well as the phenomenon of companies located in high cost of living area relocate their back office staff or their C-suite to Nashville (Alliance Bernstein, UBS, Amazon, Lyft, etc.). Nashville is fundamentally a different place in 2020 as it was in 2000, and I would contend the change from 2010 to 2020 was greater than 2000-2010. With the exception of Austin, I can't think of a place that has shifted its economy more than Nashville.
  5. One of the biggest issues right now is the heavy expense to build anything new. It is almost impossible to build something new and have it be truly affordable. That being said, any new construction (especially in rentals) should make existing options slightly less desirable which will provide downward pressure on prices over time. I like the idea of opening up any single family zoned lot to accessory dwellings and excluding a portion of the increased value from property taxes. That includes any R-zoned or RS zoned lot, and I would also get rid of the requirement that the primary house be owner occupied. Doing all of that creates a fantastic incentive to add a small 1-2 bedroom apartment that could be rented out, and it does so while still keeping the neighborhood’s feel intact.
  6. Gannett buying all of these local papers and pushing national stories was really dumb in retrospect. Nobody is looking to their local media outlets now to bring them national stories. Local media outlets are there to bring local stories and politics which Gannett gutted from the newsroom. The only way for local papers to success is to jettison national and international news and be hyper focused on local and regional news…..but that is exactly opposite of what Gannett does.
  7. Goshen is in Oldham County near Louisville. Oldham County lies somewhere between Williamson County and Sumner County in terms of wealth.
  8. A little late in uploading this. This was taken in June, 2021.
  9. A couple photos I took yesterday. This picture highlights the importance of the Hines/Reed site and the Highwoods Gulch Central projects when it comes to connecting downtown, the Gulch and Midtown.
  10. I think you are correct, although it doesn’t even have to be a corporate relocation to justify it. Amazon, Oracle, and Capgemini weren’t technically “relocations” but were instead expansions. I have zero inside knowledge into this, but before this latest round of office proposals got real Nashville had a hard time providing large blocks of space. When there’s a 90+% occupancy rate there’s nowhere to put 500 or 1000 employees. As these new buildings come online that isn’t an issue anymore. Commitments, even if they aren’t public, allow these buildings to move forward with financing. Some on here have rightfully questioned the viability of all the new office space being proposed or built. What may be driving those proposals forward are non-public expansions/relocations with Capgemini being the latest example to make it to the rumor stage.
  11. Big news in regards to the BA flight two days ago when the US announced that vaccinated travelers from the EU are allowed to enter the United States beginning in November. British Airways parent company stock has jumped about 15% since the announcement so it is pretty evident how big of a deal this is for them.
  12. I agree with Green Hills as the most likely, but I would also add the Harding Pike/White Bridge-Woodmont area as another contender. Rents there can support a high end development, and there’s already some mid rises in that area. I would also agree with Wilco being the most likely, although I think downtown Franklin is the more likely place inside Williamson. There’s not much of a reason at this point to build over 20 stories in Cool Springs, but I think there is a good reason to do it downtown.
  13. My wife and I went down to 5th & Broad for the first time to actually eat and listen to music, and we were both blown away by the experience. Here are a few takeaways from our visit: The whole experience feels elevated from a quality perspective. It was evident that the developers, architects and designers are top notch and didn't cut corners or value engineer the experience. The finishes, lighting, layout, materials, signage, music, etc., were all incredibly professional. It felt truly "big city" in those terms. Twelve Thirty Club and Blanco Cocina were packed with two hour waits. I suspect those restaurants are going to be wildly profitable. With the exception of Hattie B's and Shake Shack, Assembly Food Hall was far busier than the rest of the restaurants on the ground level. There were lines at essentially every food vendor (restaurant?) in the food hall, and it wasn't easy to find a table. Fortunately, we were able to snag a table on one of the balconies which I would highly recommend. 5th & Broad is an extension of Lower Broad, but it feels different.....in a very good way. This is going to be a destination for those who don't necessarily want to be shoulder to shoulder in the Honky Tonks with drunk people everywhere and super loud music. I would feel completely fine taking my kids or my parents to 5th & Broad.....Lower Broad not so much. Downtown Nashville just expanded the addressable market by probably 300%. There was a large contingent of 20 -50-somethings out for a good time, but there were strollers, kids, and 60+ year olds out in droves as well. We now have a plethora of reasonably priced, good quality food options in Downtown Nashville. I love Bourbon Steak, Husk, Kayne Prime, and The Southern, but sometimes I want to be able to eat for less than $20/person and be able to do it in less than an hour. The number of pictures being taken by people walking around seems to indicate that this is going to be a hot spot for tourists and locals alike. Tons of places that are going to show well on Snap or Instagram. That's only going to draw more people in. I suspect the offices and apartments at 5th & Broad are going to command some of the highest, if not the highest, lease rates in Nashville. To be able to walk out of your office or apartment and immediately into the dining and retail components of 5th & Broad is going to be wildly popular. What's even crazier to me is that we have another development that will rival or surpass 5th & Broad just a couple blocks away. I feel incredibly fortunate and proud to live in Nashville.
  14. I have always suspected that the estimates from the Census bureau miss half of the residents in two-on-one housing builds (umbilical cords early in the 2010s and tall skinnies once the zoning laws changed). For zoning purposes Metro counts all of these as Single Family Homes, and I suspect that when they report this to the census bureau they don’t realize that those are actually two housing units. I don’t have the data in front of me, but when I have pulled HUD’s estimates for Nashville it is pretty clear they aren’t including them. I’m not sure how many of these types of houses are being built every year, but I would suspect at least a thousand or so. It also seems really odd that the latter half of the 2010s is when we saw multi family absolutely explode, but the estimates still plateaued. These apartments aren’t sitting empty, so the only way to account for plateauing of the population growth is if household size has dropped dramatically as well. That is a possibility, although it would have to be a pretty profound drop to counter the increased number of housing units in Nashville now.
  15. There has to be more density than what is shown in those pictures. There’s no way they are going to be able to fit 8500 people in those buildings is there?
  16. Another international option that is easy to forget about is Air Canada through Toronto. I don’t think it provides anything that JFK or ATL don’t, but at least it’s another option. I believe BNA now has nonstop service to 55 destinations on Southwest (and a few more rumored to be announced soon), so the vast majority of domestic destinations are nonstop. Southwest was already going in heavy on BNA pre-COVID, but I believe they will accelerate that even more when compared to other airports post-COVID. They pulled a lot of capacity out of the system, and when they redeploy those aircraft on routes they are going to focus even more strongly on their growing markets. The connections through BNA are up significantly post-COVID which helps support additional nonstops that otherwise wouldn’t be available.
  17. I'm really optimistic about how BNA will come out of the pandemic and economic downturn that we have seen for a couple reasons. First, economic downturns seem to always realign cities and regions because it exposes weaknesses and tends to reinforce strengths. We saw this happen after the 2008-2010 downturn with places like Nashville, Raleigh, and Austin really surging and capturing much of the growth that developed in the recovery. Those three in particular pretty clearly jumped into a new category post-financial crisis. While I think this is true for the regions, I think it also hold true for airlines and other sectors of the economy as well. If you're leading an airline (distribution company, financial firm, or logistics operation) and are now looking to redeploy planes or assets that were mothballed during the pandemic you will likely use that opportunity to evaluate where they will not only be most utilized in the near term but also the long term. So, let's assume Southwest is looking to beef up one of their stations. Will they choose a place that is currently larger but with anemic growth, or will they choose a place that might be slightly smaller but has a much faster growth rate? I bet they will be more likely to choose the city with more potential in the near to medium term. That slightly smaller but fast growing city is Nashville (or Austin and Raleigh in the case of Delta). Secondly, there is a general consensus developing that business travel will be slower to recover than leisure travel. In other words, a place like Boston is going to fall further than places like Orlando in terms of total flights and passengers. Fortunately for Nashville, it has developed into a leisure destination and supports a good number of primarily in-bound city pairs that residents of Nashville are also able to take advantage of. Allegiant has really leveraged that in-bound traffic to develop nonstop flights to places that Nashville couldn't support on its own, and I would suspect we will continue to see that happening. Five years from now BNA won't be a top 15 or 20 airport, but I could see it moving from #31 to #25-27 (jumping places like Portland, Dulles, Midway, and Washington-National).
  18. That’s why I specifically mentioned the Boring Company. They are using a somewhat new approach to tunneling and just built a considerably longer two tunnel/three station system for the Las Vegas convention center for a total of $49 million. It sounds like they are now getting close to expanding the project in Las Vegas as well. Their tunnels are small bore, so you can’t put a train in them, but you can put moving sidewalks and regular vehicles through them. It may not make sense to spend $100 million on it, but would it make sense to spend $30 million on it? Probably so, especially since the marginal cost over a shuttle system would be much smaller than the $30 million price tag. I would also add that if they do a shuttle system they have to use something other than the typical vehicles used for parking lot runs or hotel runs. They need to invest in larger, more spacious and modern buses that are electric so they get rid of the exhaust around people.
  19. I don’t think this has been posted on here yet. Allegiant announced the addition of four additional destinations to/from BNA: -PSM (Portsmouth, NH) -BOI (Boise, ID) -ALB (Albany, NY) -MFE (McAllen, TX) All will be twice weekly destinations and begin in May. That should bring the total destinations from Nashville on Allegiant to 32 (excluding the two week Rapid City flight for Sturgis).
  20. The airport authority needs to speak with The Boring Company about making an underground connection to the satellite terminal. They are able to do underground work for remarkably less money than other entities. That distance is similar to the underground tunnel at DTW that is serviced by moving sidewalks. They could also look at doing a tram through it, but that would be substantially more money.
  21. I understand that there is more to it than just paving a five foot wide slab of concrete, but that is a fairly shocking number. It may be that it costs that much, and if that were the case then I think the city needs to be very strategic in where they put a sidewalk. I am a huge fan of sidewalks, but at some point they can become so pricey that the money could be spent elsewhere more effectively. An example: The AMP had a price tag of roughly $174 million and would have provided transportation to a large number of people. For that same cost, the city could have built sidewalks along 55 miles of roads. Would the 55 miles of sidewalks been an improvement? Absolutely, but I would argue The AMP (even with all of its well documented limitations) would have been more impactful and beneficial for the city’s transportation network.
  22. It is crazy to me that it costs $3.2 million per mile of sidewalks.
  23. I thought Amazon had already announced Cincinnati as their hub 2-3 years ago. If that is correct, I could see them having operations here, but I can’t imagine they would have anything resembling a hub operation anywhere in the regional vicinity of Cincinnati.
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