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TRB

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Posts posted by TRB

  1. 3 hours ago, OzarkSingleSpeed said:

    LOL ... TRB, you seem to be enamored with Frontiers decisions!

    Is there any incentive for Frontier to add XNA?  They most likely already pull a decent amount of discount type travelers out of this market by serving Tulsa International which is an easy 1.5hr drive from most of Northwest Arkansas.  IMO, whenever XNA lands a discount carrier, it could be a Jet Blue or Spirit or other discount carrier, an airline not serving this region of the country looking to compete.

    I think it's telling that XNA can't get them to at least Den at 3x a week. Add Huntsville Alabama to the Frontier service list to DEN and MCO as well. While some of the connecting times aren't great, they are one up on Allegiant on that front.  XNA flyers should gladly replace Allegiant with Frontier on Orlando.

    Let's take DEN, if we could get some cheap Frontier like direct service, folks could take advantage of those sub $400 R/Ts  Denver/London one can have at certain times of the year from there.

     

    I know the TUL/SAN flight isn't going to go on long but there's no word on that flight to San Jose. See...that made better sense for XNA due to the Walmart IT connections.

     

  2. 17 hours ago, Architect said:

    LIT is up about 2% through May of 2018 (810,000 passengers)...just starting to regain footing after several years of market pressure from the sunset of the Wright Amendment (DAL) and conversion of MEM to a competing O&D airport.

     LIT/PHX on Southwest goes away in JAN 2019. No new frequencies have been added yet to make up for that. Around the same time that goes away, MEM/DAL is being bumped to 3x weekday and most SUN and 2x on SAT, plus they are adding DEN in OCT. Southwest is cutting from PHX these days as DEN rises. When does Southwest add LAS to MEM, jeopardizing LIT's flight? 

    Southwest should add  Denver and Nashville to LIT

  3. On 6/27/2018 at 4:47 PM, Walls99 said:

    I agree. I’m actually somewhat surprised this hasn’t happened by now. If I’m not mistaken, there were not even SW flights out of LIT to BNA even before the repeal of the Wright Amendment (odd considering LIT would have been a good stop between DAL and BNA). Oklahoma City is getting service to Nashville on Southwest beginning in October. 

    They need to add DEN as well but they are just starting MEM/DEN in October. 

     

    They extended the schedule till the first of March. No changes  for LIT but MEM gets bumped up to 3x daily to DAL for the week and the weekends see 2x and 3x to DAL. It varies weekend to weekend.  While I like seeing more frequencies to DAL for the sake of better  connections. I would have loved to have seen LAS or PHX added where those really open up West Coast connecting options.  

  4. 11 hours ago, Architect said:


    True. I wasn’t questioning the comparison, but rather noting how no one ever thinks about Columbus. It’s sort of hiding out between Cincinnati and Cleveland.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

    They do have MLS but the owner is determined to move to Austin.

     

    I always thought Louisville would be a good  NBA market especially now with Yum, even more so than KC with Sprint.

    • Like 1
  5. 2 hours ago, Architect said:


    Columbus is one of the most underrated metros...you just never hear about it, but it’s the second largest MSA in Ohio at more than 2 million! Both OKC and Memphis, notably smaller, have major professional teams, etc. and of course Memphis has so much brand equity and mindshare culturally, etc.


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    The reason I said Peer to Memphis is because of the size of the MEM catchment area outside if the immediate Memphis MSA. Columbus is big but it's reach is compact and the perimeter surrounded by large airports.

    • Like 1
  6. 6 hours ago, Architect said:

    I assume when you say 6M total passengers, you mean both enplaned and deplaned, correct (or a little more than double LIT...which seems about right, given that the Memphis metro is about double the size of Little Rock metro)?  Airports aren't consistent sometimes when stating traffic.

    Yes, 6 million total.

    My Brother called me to wish me a Happy Birthday from the Columbus Ohio airport. That is the size Memphis should mature to and be a peer of.

    I think Southwest should add Nashville from LIT.

  7. 14 hours ago, Architect said:

    Honestly, all a bit of a surprise how well MEM is doing as an O&D airport. I guess pent up demand from its hub pressure from before. BNA is even more impressive. Daily to London on 787s. Nashville is on a whole other level.

     

     

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    Being from there, I'm not. The MEM CEO made a good point that while Delta operated around 300 flights a day from there, the vast majority were 50 seaters. If you look at seat counts and plane size today it's the equivalent of 125 flights in the Hub days. He expects the 6 gates that are open currently after B concourse consolidation to likely be filled  in the coming years. I don't know why they didn't go ahead and do all of B, there's about a dozen gates down the southwestern leg not getting to total redo. At the current rate of growth when MEM moves everything back into B in 2021, It will be near 6 million total passengers what they said was needed to do the rest of B.

    I wonder if the new Allegiant flight to OAK has poached any LIT traffic. It's said to be leaving nearly full.

     

    I was happy Air Canada entered the market never thought they'd add a second daily to Toronto.

    • Like 1
  8. On 6/19/2018 at 1:46 PM, Architect said:

    During the Commission meeting, the following was also announced:

    • Delta is increasing frequency to Atlanta to seven (7) daily - I believe all are mainline and one or two are 737s in addition to MD80's.
    • Load factors on the recently launched non-stop service on American Airlines to DCA (Washington Reagan) are VERY good, which bodes will for the route and future (expanded?) service.
    • Boardings were up over 6% in April and 4% in June, and about 2% for the year (to date).

    Speaking of AA, up the road in MEM, they have gone 3x daily(M-F) on DCA all in a 76 seater. All kinds of sub $300 R/T fares for it. Plus they adding a second daily to PHL and MIA. Just waiting till they finally add LAX to MEM. It and JFK are the only AA hubs missing in the MEM roster. It has been quite expansion post Delta Hub. Aer Lingus entertained the MEM folks for possible service to Dublin when they get their A321LRs. Still a bit of a longshot but with over 100 indirect pdew from Europe to MEM during the summer. A seasonal flight on a smaller single aisle is possible at 2 to 3 times a week.

  9. 1 hour ago, OzarkSingleSpeed said:

    XNA has published airport traffic statistics for May along with the first 5 months of 2018 ...

    • May 2018:  138,747 passengers / 5.22% increase over May 2017
    • January-May 2018:  583,786 passengers / 5.39% over first five months of 2017

    June (and then July) is historically the highest passenger volume month for XNA so we may see the first six months of 2018 closer to a 6% increase over 2017.

    Air traffic is up at just about at most airports.  My 'other' closely watched airport(MEM) is up around 7% for the year. 

  10. They aren't joking.

    I'm going to Europe in summer 2019.  It's much cheaper using  Frontier or Southwest to get to an airport where ethere's some TATL.competition. Denver has been made on of those such places with Norwegian and the Iceland  based carriers. We are talking savings of several hundreds of dollars per person and when you are booking for 4, it can save thousands. The XNA anomaly is NYC. Flights there are cheap on the legacies only problem is there's no JFK service where the best TATL fares are found with a few frow Newark.

    13 hours ago, jb1087 said:

    I don't know anything personally about the management.  I just think there's a huge elephant in the room in that everyone around Northwest Arkansas has joked, or, told the truth, that they will drive to TUL, MCI, SGF, FSM, etc, for better fares.  And that has gone on for years.  I travel several times per year for leisure and people I work with are shocked that I use XNA for all of it.  (I'd much rather spend a bit more to avoid those long drives.)  

    That being said, I don't know that the legacies have any incentive to lower fares much, as they probably make a pretty margin from frequent last minute business trips that are essentially walk-up fares.  So landing a Southwest, Spirt, or Frontier may be the only option, with the latter being the most likely I'd guess.

     

  11. 23 hours ago, OzarkSingleSpeed said:

    The Kohl's and Aldi space sharing is an interesting concept ... Aldi is in growth mode (plans to open 900 more stores in the US over the next 5 years)  and Kohl's is testing smaller format stores (while reporting 6.3% increase in sales last quarter / stores operating at least 1 year).

     

                        https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2018/03/01/kohls-and-aldi-going-neighbors/385933002/

     

    So if this happened in Fayetteville it would place an Aldi's on the north side of town, in between Target and Kohl's / Petsmart.  Plenty of parking available ... and lots of new residents in the immediate area at Watermark and Uptown.

    This would allow them to close the existing Springdale store and look to west of I-49 for a new stand alone Springdale outlet.

  12. 1 hour ago, OzarkSingleSpeed said:

    Absolutely ... could be a nice location for an Aldi's considering the only other Aldi store in Fayetteville is in the far southwest part of town.

     I read recently where Aldi's is partnering with Kohls to place their stores within existing Kohl's stores and I immediately thought of the Fayetteville store for that.

    • Like 1
  13. Delta seems hell bent on forcing you through ATL or MSP as they have now cut DTW and soon CVG from XNA. I wouldn't hold my breath for SLC.

     

    We may end up seeing a carrier like OneJet enter the XNA scene for a business route like XNA/CVG. Delta also cut MEM/CVG recently and that cut off Kroger from it's southern division hq. CVG will die a death of a thousand cuts as a Delta Hub now that Allegiant, Frontier and Southwest have made major inroads there in the past two years.  

  14. It appears that Delta is cutting XNA/CVG come October. I'm sure the P&G folk are thrilled with the prospect changing in MSP, DET or ATL. That flight got a lot longer.

     

    If Amazon can start their own frieght airline maybe Walmart should consider a discount passenger airline,  just kidding.........kinda.  Could be some same day delivery and frieght opportunities there.

  15. 16 hours ago, jb1087 said:

    I know WN used to survive on the one-stops when the full Wright Amendment was in effect, but I don't know how viable they'd be for XNA these days.  DAL-XNA-STL would work for a specific aircraft's routing, but I don't see selling that as DAL-STL with a stop as an option that many would bite at, unless it was significantly cheaper than a DAL-STL nonstop.  

    From a leisure and business traveller perspective combined, I do still think WN has the best opportunity when compared to Spirit, Frontier, or further flights from Allegiant, due to their bigger connection opportunities.  I don't know that a couple of one-off Spirit or Frontier flights (offering few or no connections) would really dent the existing fares at XNA except maybe to those specific cities.

    Oh, They Still Do it. Let's take their new Mem to Den flight cranking up in Oct. WN reduced MEM/DAL to one flight becasue they need it to fight an Alaskan move at DAL. The flight cut was the most used one, why? It was a no plane change on to LAX. A defacto nonstop. The connection times from MEM to LAX went to crap and their share of that market went to crap. AA fired up a second MEM/PHX flight. Care to guess what on the other end of that MEM/ DEN flight MON thru FRI? LAX for a no plane change. There's plenty of routing senario where WN puts a market with a decent PDEW in a position to be a no plane change. There were running one of the BWI to BOS , giving MEM a no plane change there.

    That route has a pdew of around 100 a day and no one flys it direct. HELLO JET BLUE? Their 100 seat 190s scream it. They are so afraid Delta would add BOS back to MEM if they did. Lots of MEM.

    These  new smaller planes offer the same and even better CASM than the 320s and 737s on some of these potential routes.

    The country is about ready for a new version of Southwest. I keep thinking how if Alaska and Jet Blue hooked up how they could connect the coasts this way with these super effiecient smaller planes with plenty of transcontinental range.

     

    Frontier and it's Denver Sevice from there significantly impacted fares westward in Memphis. Memphis has had 13 or some number like that quarters of decreasing fares when the fares overall have increased.

    I'll tell you something Frontier is doing that Southwest isn't. Flying to Jackson Hole from Denver. Those fares are nearly a half K with the legacies. 

     

    There's more than a handful you take a city like Memphis and string together a couple of destinations with PDEW of 35 to 60 and link them.

     

    Here's one MEM-TYS(Knoxville)-RDU in the morning and MEM-RDU-TYS-MEM in the evening. This covers a decent Business connections neither RDU and connects UT Dentist and MED to UT Knoxville plus Pigeon Forge/Smokies.

    How about XNA-BNA-RDU

    You look at Southwest's focus citoes and then go down a rung and you make then focus citis like southwest. Lots of them used to be hubs, MEM,CLE,PIT and some have just grown since those days like XNA.

     

    I love playing with GCM

     

     

     

     

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    Screenshot_2018-04-19-14-03-31.png

    • Like 1
  16. I will say this, Allegaint, Frontier and Spirit have many planes on the way.

    Allegaint, didn't grow much due to the fact they were phashing out their Maggs way before the CBS hit piece that had major issues in accuracy to those that followed the Allegiant Pilot labor strife during that time period. They are set to add 13 Airbuses to the fleet next year.

     

    Frontier's parent company has orders for 100s of Airbuses that start rolling in 2021. Expect all kinds of in city pairs to be tried out by them. Spirit has more A320s on the way too and their CEO that used to run AirTran had hinted at and continues to hint at adding smaller planes for smaller markets like AirTran did.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-17/spirit-airlines-mulls-adding-smaller-jets-to-all-airbus-fleet

    He has been waiting this out due to the uncertain future of the C-Series. Boring lost their trade case and Airbus snatched up half ownership in a cleansheet plane for a $1 as Bombardier was desperate and then losing against Boeing's trade case.

    Embraer's E2 planes are just now entering service and promise much improved efficiency over the current e-jets 

     

    Both those planes now have the capacity to go to near 150 seats with equal to better operating costs to smaller A320s and 737s.

     

    Boeing is now near frantic to hammer out an alliance with Embraer to add their E2s to the Boeing lineup

     

    The Spirit CEO has just waited it out for it to become an Airbus vs Boeing bidding war knowing the planes now have major backing.

     

    If these three airlines start adding more point to point flights from mid and small sized airports, Southwest gains to lose in this senario the most as they are more dependant on leasure passengers than the Big 3. The TUL/XNA setup would be a perfect example of this. WN has no interest in XNA because they get a good bit of bleed to TUL (even LIT and MCI)to sustain their operation their plus their planes have gotten bigger and bigger with the smallest being just a hair under 150 seats making them just too big XNA.  But here comes, let's say Frontier and they add Denver from XNA at 3x to 5X times a week. That attacks Southwest's Tulsa to Denver operation. I think Southwest is going to have to consider adding a smaller plane back to their fleet and enter smaller markets to defend their share. I think they'll have to go back to their roots and put these smaller markets in Milk run type routes like DAL-XNA-STL, that would added nonstop service to two major cities and one stop connection to dozens more. I suspect we may see Frontier do this type of routing. Back in the old days, they did  KC to Drake Field - Ft Smith -Dallas daily milk run on a 737-100 that had 100 seats.

    I suspect we may see a Frontier-Spirit tie up as they fllets are both all airbus and if they added smaller planes, likey Airbus owned C Series.

     

    A wildcard in this is McKinney Texas. They very much want to grew commercial service there, I believe that major state highway that runs just north of the airport is due for expansion and the rest of the Wright Admendment restrictions sunset soon. With North Dallas booming this is an idea spot for a third major Metroplex airport, even more so than Alliance and prefect solo to LCCS to set up a connecting operation 

    https://communityimpact.com/guides/dallas-fort-worth/news/city-county/2018/02/12/airport-land-acquisition-2-things-know-mckinney-week-feb-12-15/

     

    I could see flights like San Antonio-McKinney-XNA-St Loius -Indy

    That would give XNA non stops to the Metroplex and St. Louis and no plane change service to San Antonio and Indy. 

     

    It is being said the Embraer E2 -175 is as effiicent as a Q 400 turbo prop.

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