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Everything posted by TRB

  1. Yep, and an XNA swears they are doing that. They need better people if they are offering full incentive packages to Frontier and haven't yet landed them yet. Silver Air, out of Florida, went and got them them some new ATR 42's and 72's and are starting up BKG to IAH, MSY and ORD. Just sayin'. Someone isn't trying hard enough or just not cut out for it.
  2. Maybe XNA needs new leadership? Here you have an AA big wig telling the XNA board to offer incentives for LCC service. If they haven't, it's gross mismanagement. We have Frontier in Tulsa, Little Rock and Branson yet no XNA , an economic hotspot with a major university nearby without. Something is amiss. It also explains some of the gate issues. Wonder how they address this if B gets redone. https://talkbusiness.net/2018/04/stalemate-over-fees-ensues-between-xna-airlines-parking-deck-construction-on-schedule/ Pissing off a half million to the XNA board seems like no big deal, a study here, legal issues for years there.
  3. The smallest plane Southwest flies now is around 143 seats. Frontier's parent company has placed a huge order for A320s that will start rolling in at the start of the new decade. Expect fast growth from them. Their current fleet is rather young. But let's look at it A Frontier A319 has 156 in the smallest version and their A320s have 180 seats. The A321 are 240+. https://www.flyfrontier.com/about-us/aircraft-configuration?mobile=true Allegiant is killing off their MadDogs by the end of the year and that's their smallest plane. The A319 are 156 and their A320s are 177 seaters. Spirits A319s are 140+ and their bigger A320s seat more than Frontier's. So if you add another LCC and their are both at the gate at the same time, space constraints could play into the need for expansion as the Legacy mainlines like AA's , Delta's and United's B717, B737, A319s arw much less dense than the LCC ones. So, let's hop into Dr. Peabody's way make machine to when XNA was built and all it saw was turbo props and RJs, anywhere from 36 seat to 76 at the most with an occasional mainline at the lower Legacy capacities. Room for more people may require the need for additional and larger gates, the gate area present is just too small. It's not a number issue but room issue.
  4. I'll say it again. The first half decent fast food chain that locates at Huntsville and Crossover will make big bucks.
  5. Typical most carriers like their own gate for branding and all that. Common use gates aren't all that common these days
  6. It's becoming more and more like the Memphis/Jonesboro and Memphis/Tupelo dynamic as NWA grows.
  7. But the trailer park remains...............
  8. This is always the argument yet as the population grows the need for more leasure travel grows. I'm sitting back and finally watching Memphis grow to just get close to peer cities in terms O&D traffic as it was suppressed for so long. The effective catchment area of Memphis International is about the same as Columbus Ohio in terms of population yet Memphis has an international tourism travel component that it has over over peer cities. Xna needs not to defer leasure travel to other nearby cities when it's swinging the big economic stick that it is.
  9. I think the area is ripe for a museum that would have a permanent UA wing and also space for traveling exibitions via various orgs like the Smithsonian. Shocked this hasn't come about yet. I can envision a campus with this museum and the beginnings of a zoo where the UA could unndertake a zoological and vetenary sciences expansion.
  10. OIt should be noted that XNA's numbers grew in Jan and Feb though in near 3% range. Memphis grew at 10% for Jan.
  11. When you search a booking engine like Kayak and include nearby airports Ft. Smith and Tulsa will often pop up. Got to be careful though because sometimes it'll leave from one and return at another. XNA has often stated that they are losing somewhere around 20% of potential traffic to leakage. That's huge, over 200,000 total passengers and it's growing. Here is an example. A new coworker and his wife relocated from San Diego to here. They make less but are able to afford more house and their commuting costs are lower. It's a net gain in the end. Last week they booked cheap nonstop flights on Frontier to San Diego from Tulsa to go visit friend in few weeks. That trumped Allegiant to LAX and a drive for them.
  12. This also reminds me to mention that Frontier is now back at Branson BKG(not Springfield). They are also picking up Silver Airways. They are dumping their Saabs for brand new ATR 42s and 72s and expanding out of Florida. So far, we know that Houston, Chicago, and New Orleans will be destinations on 42s. Hints at more destinations from BKG as well. I would not be surprised that they added some MEM and LIT routes to New Orleans as well. Outside of the past Frontier and Airtran/Southwest service they had, this is the first full fledged carrier, not charter operator, they have had and there's some code share with United.
  13. As you know, I follow XNA and MEM closely, MEM is still experiencing faster growth in percentage monthly passenger numbers, yet XNA is surrounded by better growth and economic prosperity. Why? Since transitioning to an O&D airport after Delta dehubbed it, it has seem thirteen straight quarters of decreasing average fares and seen the majors slowly but surely start to upgrade plane sizes. The two airports used to share space in the top 10 most expensive but Memphis has left that dubious honor list. Until XNA lands more than token low cost vacation routes in token numbers the growth will be slowed especially with Frontier now at Tulsa and Branson again. The New York routes from XNA show what competition does. I flew from Orlando to Memphis last night on one of their 738s. It'll hold 175 and their was maybe 80 folks on it. I said that sounded like bad news, the staff said nope. They overnight those in Memphis as the morning flights to BWI or MDW need the capacity. Those 79 buck late nite, weekday, Orlando fares are just a side benefit.
  14. Stores come and go, I can list dozens that have come and gone at malls over the years. Remember, Merry go Round, Chess King, World Bazzar, Gadzooks and on and on. That Forever 21, if the second floor is availible is a prime H&M location.
  15. Seems the Forever 21 in the Mall in fayetteFayetteville is still open. They did shutter the Banana Republic on the southern end I'm still shocked there's been no H&M for the area or that Dick's or the Dick's /Field &Steam combo hasn't made it here.
  16. Southwest has it half right with their focus city approach with STL, MSY, and BNA to name a few. The problem is that each new version of the 737 gets bigger and bigger so the ability to serve smaller markets is less and less attractive because it gets harder to fill a plane point to point. The economics of the planes are better if you have full seats and the need to pay higher and higher labor costs. There's a pilot shortage thanks to knee jerk reactions over the Buffalo RJ crash and the Unions pushing a higher min hrs requirement to add barriers to entry for the profession plus less pilots comimg out of the military. There's some new, really efficient 100 seater out there or soon to be out there that harken back to the days that Frontier flew KC- Fayetteville-Dallas with a 100 seat 737-200. The C Series from Bombardier and the new E2's coming from Embraer are seeing significant resistance from the US unions thanks to scope clauses (too big for regionals to fly) and too small for the big 4 main line pilots. Really, it's a complete mess with all the contract nonsense. A foreign carrier isn't all low to set up shop and run domestic routes even if they hire all US employees. If it were me, I'd go for really economical turboprops for the runs we are talking about and run longer routes with the new one hundressed seaters. Case in Point. MEM to SEA. Throw in an occasional stop and go in a place like Jackson Hole on WED and SAT to offer some unique leasure travel that's usually insane via the Big 3 unless you are using miles/points.
  17. While I'm in a talky mood. I want to theorize a bit. Theory #1: Southwest should help McKinney efforts with commercial passenger service and offer it from there. The why is because while the WA is pretty much toast the lack of gates at Love is constant. Love will never be allowed to add gates and just look at the ongoing fight with Delta over two gates with Southwest's leasing them from United and wanting to kick Delta out of them. The easy solution to that is add 5 to 10 gates. Southwest doesn't want that because others may ask for them and they would gain very little if others moved in or asked for the hem they hem expand. Oh, say, like Alaska. It was Alaska adding LAX frequencies after buying Virgin America that cost Memphis it's no plane change stop in DAL flight to LA that was mid afternoon. Southwest added more flights to LAX but at different schedules killing the ability of that particular routing. So, Southwest is hampered at Love with so many intra Texas Frequencies. Moving some of these to the booming North Dallas area would free up more frequencies and better connecting times for markets outside of Texas like Memphis and Little Rock by shifting some of that to Mckinney. They could also serve some heavy O&D routes like Orlando and Vegas from there further freeing up some space at Love. Southwest could offer up financing it's own terminal as a way to ward off others from following them. The city could then build a couple of 'for grabs' gates with the full intent of making and keeping them scarce but allowing others to offer service. Theory #2: We saw Glo come and go. There's not a doubt in my mind that routes like LIT and MSY can be served and be profitable by smaller planes. Glo was really an airline but in name only. Their pilots, planes and MX was contracted out. They flew old Saabs that broke down often and were expensive to fix while offering no operating expense advantage. They had staffing issues because their contracted charter operator didn't always have the dudes. Then I read where an established and dependable operator based in Florida that flew some intra state routes and island routes were dumping their old Saabs and buying 20 brand new ATR-42-600s. They even opted for the less dense 46 seat layout with 33 inch seat pitch. Instead of more seats with less room. Then shortly after that, I read where there were going to branch out of Florida. They mentioned routes like Huntsville AL to Orlando, even Branson (not Springfield but BKG just over the line) to Orlando. Those flights would even offer connections to Carribean destinations. These planes have a full load operating range of 700nm. They also mentioned setting up a base in New Orleans. My head went Ding, Ding, Ding. New, spacious turboprops that are faster than the Saabs with better reliability and operation costs whIle keeping the 3 crew standard( pilot, Co pilot, flight atendant). They own their own planes, perform their own mx, have their own pilots, better know how in marketing and day to day operations. This is the airline that could make a route like MSY/LIT and MSY/MEM work. I'd go a step farther andake them old school milk runs, the kind you saw Southwest fly into Dallas under the Wright Admendment with an intermediate stop between two primary destinations. They briefly flew Chicago- Branson-Dallas because Missouri had a waiver and stops fulfilled the WA requirements. So, if it were me, a pure enthusiast only, I'd fly routes like what Glo did but add another stop beyond those. Just some examples, MSY-LIT- XNA, MSY-SHV-TUL, MSY-MEM-STL. You would be offering the middle stop two, new unserved nonstop destinations while offering the end destination a nonstop and a direct, no plane change route while the middle stop. You could even vary the last destination a bit. Take MSY-LIT and then rotate XNA with BKG. They could keep XNA to MSY daily by then staggering MSY-MEM with XNA and STL, hitting XNA on the days the other route goes to BKG. I could see and airline having succeas doing this with routes like MEM-TYS-RDU. I think the PDEW for MEM /RDU is around 45 passengers. Add in a brief stop to service UT/Pigeon Forge traffic in between would still offer the best option. The TYS stop wouldn't even have ro be daily, it could be skipped or subbed with another like Chattanooga. AUS-LIT-BNA is another.
  18. Niether city gained anything with the Southwest schedule extention today. Seems Little Rock changes come with those but Memphis add and subtracts come as standalone news events. Actually if you look at certain peer airports Memphis still has room to grow plus there's a tourism aspect to it. Memphis says it has over 2 million international tourists a year. Here's a tidbit from Wiki but it kinda gives you a better understanding: The greater Mid-South area as a whole has a population of 2.4 million according to 2013 census estimates.[3] This area is covered by Memphis local news channels and includes the Missouri Bootheel, Northeast Arkansas, West Tennessee, and North Mississippi.[3] That is places like Jackson TN, Tupelo MS, Jonesboro and Paragould AR. You extend out to a 3 to 31/2 hr drive and you get into Little Rock and Jackson MS and it shoots to well past 3 million. I think thats why you see a comment from the CEO of Norwegian Air suggesting TATL service at MEM could be stimulated with low cost carrier fares. Here's a piece about top undeserved TATL markets. http://www.anna.aero/2017/09/13/kansas-city-becomes-the-largest-unserved-market-in-the-us-from-europe/ Since that was published, KC got one of the LCC Icelandic carriers that offer cheap European connects from Iceland. Still not true TATL nonstop service but it clears the mega hubs of the US. It doesn't take in to account those that drive in from other airport markets. (Nashville, New Orleans). What it shows is that while Memphis isn't the next in line( but it is close) that market stimulation of local O&D and that from tourism as seen in Austin shows that Memphis could support a 2x to 3x weekly TATL service. Back to OKC, I see why, Tulsa to the northeast and Dallas to the South limits their catchment area, even Amarillo to the west with Southwest needs to be factored, compare this with what I past from Wiki about Memphis: Seven counties make up the Oklahoma City Metropolitan Area: Canadian, Cleveland, Grady, Lincoln, Logan, McClain, and Oklahoma. According to the 2010 U.S. Census, the region had a population of 1,252,987. The micro urban area of Shawnee (in Pottawatomie County) is included in Oklahoma City's Combined Statistical Area(CSA) which brings the area population to 1,430,327. The Oklahoma City – Shawnee CSA is also included as part of the I-35 Megalopolis. counties make up the Oklahoma City Metropolitan Area: Canadian, Cleveland, Grady, Lincoln, Logan, McClain, and Oklahoma. According to the 2010 U.S. Census, the region had a population of 1,252,987.
  19. CVG just got WN a year ago after pulling out of Dayton, Delta had drawn down CVG into a shell hub. Allegiant went in and did gangbusters, they have like 9 destination ls in the summer from MEM. The only thing missing in MEM is west coast LCC kinda like what Frontier is doing in Tulsa with San Diego and now San Jose. Now, MEM is about to completely redo B and when it is done will consolidation everythigh on B. It may hinder adding more flights. I point to the Air Canada flights out of Memphis tomToronto of how suppressed it was. It did so well they quickly added another daily flight to better connect to Asia. If you had asked me two years ago that MEM would have two dailies to Toronto, i'd ask for some of what you were smoking.
  20. Now, add Fort Lauderdale, New Orleans, Austin and Baltimore
  21. The socio economic issue bit is very much overplayed. There's a difference in being too cheap to fly and not flying because you are getting fleeced. Memphians were fleeced for decades. Since the Delta Dehub, Memphis has seen average fare prices fall 13 quarters in a row. They are projected to pass the top annual mark for locals flying out of Memphis of any time during the hub years. Memphians are finally USING their airport. Southwest would have nurtured that a long long time ago. Right now, Southwest needs to add DEN to both aireports but especially MEM ago their westerner connecting times really suck and's holding them back bigly. They are trying to serve too many markets out of DAL and flight times are suffering from some markets. Maybe it's time they consider a secondary Metroplex airport like McKinney to shift shift some of all that interTexas traffic. They are doing this in Seattle with adding flight from Payne Field, North of Sea Tac.
  22. Supposedly back in the early 80's Southwest toyed with the Idea of flying into West Memphis. Memphis was the low hanging fruit here. The West Memphis airport was right by I-40 and being in Arkansas, satisfied the Wright Admendment. Memphis was the economic powerhouse of Tennessee back then, not Nashville. It supposedly fell on deaf ears with Clinton and Little Rock out of fear of the effect on LIT. Memphasis and Tennessee feared the effects it would have at MEM. Looking back, this likely cost East Arkansas an economic fortune. (See North MS.)and Memphis as well. I think MEM would have kept going and the growth of the entire area may have kept it a hub unlike today. Let's be honest Memphians drove to LIT and BNA for cheap Southwest Flights or just drove period. I have no idea of knowing but I feel that narrow mindedness has held the Memphis MSA down I I feel it would be over 2 million had it happened with 100s of thousands of those in East Arkansas.
  23. I noticed that, it was shown on their chart the last schedule release as being gone, guess they decided against it. Memphis lost a DAL frequency M-F and kept 2 on Sat and Sun. It has really degraded their connecting times to the west coast. Southwest is now song with retiring their 783 300s and actually gaining planes again. Maybe that had something to do with it. Hopefully Both get DEN now Frontier is nibbling at their west coast fed. Frontier is really throwing darts from Tulsa. They have added San Jose in addition San Diego and Denver for out west and added IAD for the east . Southwest swe ms to neglecting some markets opening them up for attack. They are really failing the wEST coast from Memphasis by not offering any nonstopd further west than DAL and HOU and LIT with nothing east of the Mississippi. They should add BNA-LIT
  24. As far as I know, they offer code shares with other airlines but no directs. It's been rumored before but they have recently had issues with crew shortages with their regional partner, Horizon. I keep saying XNA and MEM would be good places for Alaska where opportunity awaits with airports with growing O&D and lack of Pac NW service.
  25. Doubtful, that MEM/DCA flight competes with Southwest and MEM/BWI. They LIT has no direct Competition. They'll be in line with what you see at XNA or slightly less. Progrease is being made on the Dulles Metro Station. When that is done in 2019, I can see Dulles getting some new service once wor gets out its easier to get into DC.
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