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Mr_Bond last won the day on September 11 2015

Mr_Bond had the most liked content!

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About Mr_Bond

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  • Birthday May 6

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    Nashville, Tampa/St. Pete, Orlando
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    Economics, finance and investments, gardening, running, sailing, canoeing.

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  1. I'm excited about what this project is turning into. I heard that the Somera Road developers are quite enthusiastic about Nashville. Two of the partners have moved here.
  2. Hello, my fellow UPers! I've been away for awhile, busy with work. To celebrate my return, I've chosen to post about my neighborhood. For a few years now, The James Apartments at 1000 Division has been run by Stay Alfred as AirBnB. Stay Alfred has filed for bankruptcy, another victim of the virus. I noticed a construction dumpster next to the building yesterday. Today, I heard from a neighborhood realtor that the owner is selling the units individually. If you or someone you know is interested in a less expensive condo in The Gulch, take a look. This building should have low HOA fees since there are few building amenities.
  3. It's helpful to think of the stock market as comprising many players of various sizes and varying goals. It ranges from HFTs (high frequency traders) who are looking to make tiny profits for a few seconds several times each day to those who are truly very long term buy-and-hold. No one player can dominate the others because everyone is looking for an opportunity to make a profit. The wisdom of the market participants in total is much greater than that of any one player, even the smartest one in the world backed by computing power (whoever that is).
  4. The testing will have to be done like everything else has been done in the pandemic: on a state by state, city by city basis. What if dine-in restaurants had a section for social distancing and a section for non-social distancing? It would be like when we had "smoking or non-smoking?" back in the day. This would allow them to turn more tables for patrons who choose it (younger, already over the virus) while giving the nervous crowd a place as well.
  5. Here is a recent example of a major shift in attitudes based on economic events. After the Global Financial Crisis, Americans changed their attitudes toward debt. And this was a multi-generational shift. This graph illustrates the point. Not only did we pay off some excess debt, we did not replace it with new debt, and we continue to reduce debt burdens as seen in the slight downtick late 2017-early 2018. Post-pandemic we could see corporations increase the amount of their normal operating cash levels and households add to their emergency funds. Pushing against this will be the Federal Reserve's Keynesian economic policies that emphasize debt as a growth tool. They want to force us to put our cash into riskier holdings by pushing short term interest rates to zero. However, humans feel pain at twice the level they seek gain, so we are likely to hold on to the cash even though we're not earning much interest. The new culture is likely to include 'frivolous' spending but it will be backed by a stronger financial foundation that can weather the next storm.
  6. I didn't know he owned that little slice of a parking lot! To me, this information makes the possible Ritz Carlton news even more exciting! I love this city, and I love UP (on most days)!
  7. Thanks for finding that website. But thanks more for the attitude of gratitude!
  8. While this isn't an 'answer' per se, it is a path to an answer and perhaps a topic that we could cover in more detail in this thread. We should split the discussion into the various market segments and reflect on each of those individually. The downtown and midtown development primarily serves high income earners who do not have children of middle school and high school age. Multi-family in other parts of Davidson county will attract a different demographic, or several. New neighborhoods in surrounding counties will be attractive to families with children and those who can't afford to live closer in. In other words, Nashville is big enough that we should think of the residential development boom in those segments and perhaps more. Commercial and entertainment also deserve their own discussions.
  9. The Liberty University situation is another one where the truth is quite far from what was reported, and has changed since the news item hit but no follow-up story has been done (of course. "Problem addressed" doesn't make news headlines like "There is a problem!") I spoke with a student there who said almost everyone returned to campus from spring break, packed up their stuff, and went home. The school did not extend spring break because they felt the students were more exposed to coronavirus while on break than they would be on campus. Also, they have a lot of international students who may have a very difficult time getting home. Their ability to conduct online classes is well-advanced since they have offered online degrees for several years. The school is complying with city, county and state guidelines. https://www.liberty.edu/students/health-wellness/coronavirus/ Speaking of eating out, Frothy Monkey in 12 South is doing a great job. I pulled into a parking spot in the back, called the phone number as directed, and an employee brought out my order and set it in the my passenger seat. Burger Up was not a pleasant experience. I had to enter the restaurant and find a place to stand at least 6 feet away from several other customers waiting inside. When I told them I had ordered online, they told me the kitchen would put my order in a case next to the kitchen door. To reach the case, I had to walk within three feet of three employees. No, thank you.
  10. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/irans-coronavirus-problem-lot-worse-it-seems/607663/ There's a team at The Atlantic that is doing excellent journalistic work on the coronavirus. This article focuses on what might be happening in Iran.
  11. If you go to the Johns Hopkins coronavirus website and click on the name of countries in the left column, the graph of their confirmed cases shows up in the lower right hand corner. For the countries who are quite open about the number of cases, the graphs look very similar and could be used as standard to apply to all countries. When I look at Iran's graph, it is quite clear that the data is being manipulated.
  12. The scenario you describe would certainly be a major disaster, especially after all the pain we've been through already. My interpretation of what POTUS said is that they would begin by opening certain parts of the country - like Montana, west Texas, areas of the country where there are very few cases. He did not say what the next step would be. He said that he is listening to the experts and heeding their advice. This sounds like a measured way to create more cases without overwhelming the medical system, building herd immunity one step at a time.
  13. Also from my letter to clients: "You may have heard some talk of how warmer weather would affect the spread of the virus. Last week, a team of researchers unveiled the results of a new study that looked at how temperature and humidity may affect the transmission of COVID-19. According to the researchers' findings, “High temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19.” An increase of just one degree Celsius and 1% relative humidity increase substantially lower the virus’s transmission, according to the data analyzed by the researchers. The researchers studied 100 different Chinese cities that each had more than 40 cases of COVID-19 from Jan. 21 to 23. The decision to study transmission on those dates was critical because that time period was before China intervened on Jan. 24 to stop the spread of the virus. Analyzing that timeframe allowed researchers to observe the natural spread of the virus before public health measures, which have since helped reduce the spread drastically in China, were implemented. If this study’s conclusions are valid, the coming of spring and summer could help us flatten the curve until cooler weather arrives in the fall."
  14. Yesterday I sent a letter to clients touching various aspects of this situation. Relevant to the recent comments on this thread, I'll share the paragraph about the 'Recovered.' "If you’ve been looking at some coronavirus charts, you’ll see data like number infected, number of daily new cases, number of deaths, and something called ‘recovered.’ This last data point is the one that leads us back to normalcy. Currently, most of us are thinking in terms of two groups of people: those who are infected and those who do not want to become infected. We must also focus on a third group of people: those who have recovered. When a vaccine is developed, we can expand the ‘recovered’ group to include those who have been vaccinated. Each person who has recovered and is not infectious can go about his or her normal life in the midst of a pandemic. They can teach children, treat patients, clean teeth, serve food, solve crimes, and move about the public. If these people are identified, the public will have confidence that these people are safe to interact with us. Once we are approaching herd immunity, we will no longer need to identify the people who have recovered or been vaccinated." Additional note: The path to normalcy may involve government allowing/encouraging specific groups of people to get out and act normal, knowing that those people may get infected. If testing is ramped up and results are available in minutes or hours, we can monitor the spread of the virus in each group that is 'released.' These people get infected, recover and are permanently normal. If we combine this strategy with antiviral drugs that lessen the effect then this will work. We increase herd immunity at a measured pace without overwhelming the health care system. Once a vaccine is ready, we give it to everyone ASAP and we have herd immunity.
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