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Everything posted by Mr_Bond

  1. In addition to the truckers (activity suggests recession is here) and the sanguine Brinker, we can add Elon Musk (said recession will last 12-18 months) and some VC firms (my SIL shared a YouTube video released last week where a VC firm is telling startups how to survive a recession). Several people in-the-know (including Bernanke) have suggested the Fed has already miscalculated and waited too long to start raising rates. BTW, to fight inflation, the Fed has to get the short term Fed Funds rate above the inflation rate. That is a significant increase from the 1% (top of range) rate today. When short term rates go to 9% or 10%, mortgage rates could easily double from where they are today. I'm wondering if some developers have enough of their own money that they will be less impacted by the higher lending rates.
  2. Time to dust off this thread. US GDP in Q1 2022 contracted. If we get two consecutive quarters of negative growth (don't you love that phrase?!), we will officially be in a recession. However, I can tell you that we are already there. Trucking activity tracks almost exactly with realtime GDP and the demand for trucking has dropped significantly. Here is an explanation of spot rates versus contract rates: https://www.freightwaves.com/news/what-is-the-difference-between-trucking-contract-and-spot-rates Shipping volumes are dropping: https://www.freightwaves.com/news/cass-the-freight-cycle-has-downshifted-with-a-thud Spot rates are dropping fast during the early summer when they would normally be peaking: https://www.freightwaves.com/news/truckload-van-spot-rates-are-falling-even-faster Earlier in May, the spot rate including fuel dropped below the contract rate without fuel. Many companies are renegotiating their trucking contracts in a downward direction. So, how will Nashville fare during this recession? Have we seen any drop in development activity?
  3. Check out Wikipedia's Article Of The Day today. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Nashville_Sounds
  4. Doesn't Tony G. own Premier? If so, this would give him more money to build... Paramount!!!!
  5. I've spoken with several homeless people who say that the Rescue Mission is not a good place. While researching this type of attitude, I found an article written by someone at the Nashville Rescue Mission explaining why some homeless say this. There are two main reasons. First, there are many homeless who are stubbornly independent and do not want anyone to put boundaries on them. So they will badmouth the Mission because boundaries are put on them there. Second, anyone who is addicted to alcohol and drugs won't get themselves in a place where they can't get their drug of choice, so they won't go to the Mission. It makes sense that I can't trust the stories told by the obviously drunk homeless man who approached me to ask for money at 6:30 AM on a Tuesday.
  6. https://classicalbumsundays.com/album-of-the-month-john-coltrane-a-love-supreme/ https://www.allmusic.com/album/a-love-supreme-mw0000187827 Coltrane's liner notes: http://www.albumlinernotes.com/A_Love_Supreme.html
  7. After initial drilling for four weeks, the blankets were delivered last week and blasting began on Tuesday. With Harlowe next door, they probably are doing smaller blasts. No rock has been hauled off yet but that could start next week.
  8. @titanhog, I'm so sorry to hear that this happened to your parents, you and your family. May you all know comfort, peace and joy today and in the months ahead. Settling estates is never easy and especially so when both spouses pass so closely together. You are in my prayers.
  9. I found this website giving information about these ships. Unfortunately, it looks like all of these have been "disposed of." http://www.navsource.org/archives/12/01idx.htm With the exception of the mothballed PC-1590 (ex-Constant, AM-86), which was recommissioned in May 1950 as a Naval Reserve training craft and served in that capacity until October 1954, the survivors were decommissioned quickly postwar and disposed of.
  10. I'm not a professional but I would imagine that trading material costs for labor costs would make timber construction more attractive in the current economic environment.
  11. Good news! Albion is about to pass the Haven in height which means we'll see less of the Haven, at least when approaching from the west. My, how this view has changed in the last two years.
  12. @Baronakim, I really appreciate your perspective. I have had the same feelings you shared but could not articulate them as much. This forum leads us to talk about the trees, as you said, but the forest is really amazing. To one of your points, @smeagolsfree, the FAA restrictions are really a gift to us. They have forced developers to spread out a little and have pretty much eliminated the competitive spirit to build the next 'tallest' in Nashville. Instead, the focus of developers seems to be on amenities, building a community, and now we're starting to see more green space. As a 30-year resident, this city has always been special and unique. Here is my theory as to why Nashville is so special. Years ago, when the business and old money finally embraced the music community and agreed to work together to make Nashville "Music City", they changed the future. They created a city where money and talent mix easily, where one can be proud to be a Nashvillian and be proud to move here to pursue your dreams, where all are welcome to join us and make this city a place of respect and fun.
  13. I'm spending more time in the Alpharetta area on business and think it would be a great place to live. With the post-pandemic, WFH, Great Resignation going on, there have to be pockets of Atlanta and Dallas that are quite appealing to some of the people who might otherwise choose Nashville/Austin/Denver but feel priced out of the market.
  14. Spot on, Smeags. It's so easy to be distracted by all the activity. About three years ago, I almost pressed the gas to turn on to an interstate on ramp and happened to glance up just in time to see two tourists walking in front of my car. I'll never make that mistake again. @markhollin, is safety addressed in the study?
  15. If we can get a few neighborhoods with high scores, like East Nashville and Downtown, they will attract the residents that want a higher walk and bike score. I think the city versus city comparison is silly. By this measurement, no one lives in the entire city: they live at an address and want to know if they can walk and bike to places.
  16. Like hosting the NFL Draft, hosting a political convention is a rite of passage for a city. I say, bring it on, regardless of party.
  17. Really? Come on. If you think this about conservatives or people who are frank about specific issues, you should spend some time with them to find out why they think the way they do. It is usually a liberal that says to me, "It's more complicated than that" but, actually, it isn't. Some very important decisions can be made using basic principles. Common sense works for everyone. I do not have to have a Ph.D. tell me how to live my life - I can make my own decisions and live with them all by myself. Actually, it does matter what color the states are. The five year and one year numbers show a trend that is different than the ten year numbers. See the reasons given by the New Yorkers below. The aspects of life that were keeping certain people in NYC, California, Illinois, Connecticut, and other high tax, blue states, have lost some their influence. The aspects of life in these states that were tolerated pre-pandemic are not intolerable to some people. It's not everyone. It's never everyone. These shifts occur over time. This is also how investors work in the markets - a few here, a few there, some with the trend, some against, but the real pattern becomes more apparent over time. I've spoken with these new Nashvillians from NYC, Cali, Illinois, Minnesota, and other places. The ones I talk with are here for the reasons given by Flatrock. They are usually conservative politically and decided a few months ago that they could no longer put up with the policies of decades of Democratic leadership in their city or state. They tolerated high taxes because they had great jobs. They enjoyed the great climate of California so they put up with politicians they did not agree with. Their extended family lived close by so they hunkered down and did the best they could in life. The part of the city they lived in had lower crime rates than the poorer parts - in LA, San Fran, Chicago, New York, etc. - but the liberal, no-cash-bail DAs combined with the pandemic and riots of 2020 to increase crime and cause them to no longer feel safe. The authoritarian lockdowns were too much and they longed for the freedom of red states. As of 2020, the negatives finally outweighed the positives. They finally said, "That's enough. We're out of here." And the extended family is following so we have several generations moving here together.
  18. As I type this, I'm sitting in a VRBO in downtown Mobile. We got one week in a 2 bedroom, 2 bath three blocks off of Government Street downtown for about $1K all in. From here, we can walk to coffee shops, great seafood restaurants, some craft breweries, etc. We're 15 minutes to the mall and only 30 minutes to downtown Fairhope (ate dinner there tonight). When we checked home prices in the area we were amazed.
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