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Mr_Bond

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Posts posted by Mr_Bond

  1. 15 hours ago, MLBrumby said:

    OK... you dusted off... I'll chime in!

    I'm hearing a lot of negative things now, and the difference is it's coming from all quarters. I think the contraction in the first quarter was what sparked a lot of hat, but I have been hearing a lot of negativity with the way the president is "managing" things, even from colleagues who call themselves "progressive".  Apparently the polls bear out that many people agree we're on the wrong track (I've consistently seen 75+%). As to economists in general, I'll quote: "the risk of recession has risen to one-in-three due to the possibility of a Federal Reserve miscalculation, our current base case is for real gross domestic product (DGP) growth this year within a range of 2.5% to 3.5%. "  Bob Brinker (www.bobbrinker.com) May 2022 newsletter.  

    Brinker tends to be more sanguine than most; and my experience is that he's very sober and correct more often than other prognosticators.  Hopefully his read is closer to the mark, and things get to a "soft landing", or else we can probably count on many of the large projects for Nashville (and Chattanooga for me) to be canceled or delayed by years. 

    In addition to the truckers (activity suggests recession is here) and the sanguine Brinker, we can add Elon Musk (said recession will last 12-18 months) and some VC firms (my SIL shared a YouTube video released last week where a VC firm is telling startups how to survive a recession).

    Several people in-the-know (including Bernanke) have suggested the Fed has already miscalculated and waited too long to start raising rates.  BTW, to fight inflation, the Fed has to get the short term Fed Funds rate above the inflation rate.  That is a significant increase from the 1% (top of range) rate today.

    When short term rates go to 9% or 10%, mortgage rates could easily double from where they are today.  I'm wondering if some developers have enough of their own money that they will be less impacted by the higher lending rates.

    • Like 2
  2. Time to dust off this thread.  US GDP in Q1 2022 contracted.  If we get two consecutive quarters of negative growth (don't you love that phrase?!), we will officially be in a recession.  However, I can tell you that we are already there.  Trucking activity tracks almost exactly with realtime GDP and the demand for trucking has dropped significantly.  Here is an explanation of spot rates versus contract rates:

    https://www.freightwaves.com/news/what-is-the-difference-between-trucking-contract-and-spot-rates

    Shipping volumes are dropping:

    https://www.freightwaves.com/news/cass-the-freight-cycle-has-downshifted-with-a-thud

    Spot rates are dropping fast during the early summer when they would normally be peaking:

    https://www.freightwaves.com/news/truckload-van-spot-rates-are-falling-even-faster

    Earlier in May, the spot rate including fuel dropped below the contract rate without fuel.  Many companies are renegotiating their trucking contracts in a downward direction.

     

    So, how will Nashville fare during this recession?  Have we seen any drop in development activity?

    • Like 1
  3. On 4/13/2022 at 2:12 PM, MLBrumby said:

    Since MarketStreet bought the BP Golden Sound building, I wonder if BP needs to move from that location to Paseo South Gulch because MS has told them they will have to move at some point in the next few years.

  4. On 3/23/2022 at 6:50 AM, smeagolsfree said:

    I do not know how much truth there is about the corruption, however there are a lot of folks that would rather rot on the streets than spend a night in the mission. I walk a lot downtown and around the mission and I am none too shy or scared to talk to these folks. Some are grateful, but a lot will tell you how they really feel when you press them. You can now buy vodka on Sundays, so that is not as big of deal now. 

    The folks are still very wary of people poking around and asking questions. Some will open up, but others will clam up pretty quickly. Some have heard the mission is moving and others say no way. Mixed Bag!

    I've spoken with several homeless people who say that the Rescue Mission is not a good place.  While researching this type of attitude, I found an article written by someone at the Nashville Rescue Mission explaining why some homeless say this.  There are two main reasons.  First, there are many homeless who are stubbornly independent and do not want anyone to put boundaries on them.  So they will badmouth the Mission because boundaries are put on them there.  Second, anyone who is addicted to alcohol and drugs won't get themselves in a place where they can't get their drug of choice, so they won't go to the Mission.

    It makes sense that I can't trust the stories told by the obviously drunk homeless man who approached me to ask for money at 6:30 AM on a Tuesday.

    • Like 4
  5. @titanhog, I'm so sorry to hear that this happened to your parents, you and your family.  May you all know comfort, peace and joy today and in the months ahead.  Settling estates is never easy and especially so when both spouses pass so closely together.  You are in my prayers.

    • Like 2
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  6. 48 minutes ago, MidTenn1 said:

    This would be nice anchored to the revitalized East Bank if one could be found. (I doubt it).

    Minesweeper.thumb.jpg.f7d2b7c9dd450411f7297df2a2968c41.jpg

    I found this website giving information about these ships.  Unfortunately, it looks like all of these have been "disposed of."

    http://www.navsource.org/archives/12/01idx.htm

    With the exception of the mothballed PC-1590 (ex-Constant, AM-86), which was recommissioned in May 1950 as a Naval Reserve training craft and served in that capacity until October 1954, the survivors were decommissioned quickly postwar and disposed of.

     

    • Thanks 2
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  7. 11 minutes ago, smeagolsfree said:

    Lots of new images on the NBJ. Not to mention a planned 48 and 46 story tower on the AEG site.

    This is new and unexpected, right?  The changes to NY recently have been on the 'bigger and taller' side and it seems like this falls into that category.  How do these two towers compare to Amazon 3 and Pinnacle?

    • Like 4
  8. 37 minutes ago, Bos2Nash said:

    Courtesy of ULI (Urban Land Institute) I was able to participate in a tour of the new 1030 Music Row Building. It is a beautiful building with some really nice detailing. Tuck Hinton led the tour and Turner Construction was on hand to share insight and info. Here are some insights that Turner shared with the group.

    • The columns and beams are all Glue-Laminated Timber and came out of Austria. StructureCraft is the Engineer of Record for the building, but outsourced these elements. Even coming from Austria at the height of the pandemic these materials arrived from Europe ahead of schedule and prompted Turner to rent an additional lay down space until the site was ready for timber. 
    • Dowel-Laminated Timber (DLT) makes up the floor and roof decks and are made out of 2x8 dimensional lumber with a hardwood dowel run through them. The moisture from the 2x8s then seep into the dowel and expands them locking the panel together. There is no nails and no adhesive holding the panels together (they are screwed to the beams, but the panels themselves dont have any).
    • The passenger elevator shaft is Cross-Laminated Timber (CLT). This presented a little bit of a headache for codes and the elevator contractor as they had not seen timber in an elevator shaft (or were not used to it). Mass Timber is regularly used for shaft walls and meeting the fire and structural requirements. Alas, Turner applied a then, clear coat of intumescent paint to the inside of the timber to satisfy codes and elevator team.
    • From the first column going in to the final roof deck panel being installed all timber was installed in 4 months. This went a little slower than some other high profile Mass Timber projects, but the limiting factor is the fact they only had one crane on the job. There were 6 workers installing the timber (compared to an estimated 60 guys for concrete and 30 guys for steel structures). Another great perk of the technology is as soon as the deck is laid, it is structurally sound. Unlike concrete where the forms have to sit for a couple weeks and then be removed and concrete touched up, the timber has no forms and is finished when put in place.
    • Mass Timber shaved 3 to 4 months OFF the construction timeline

     

    I'm not a professional but I would imagine that trading material costs for labor costs would make timber construction more attractive in the current economic environment.

    • Like 3
  9. On 1/24/2022 at 10:46 AM, MagicPotato said:

    Can we talk about home prices? It's really getting out of hand. A townhome is going for around 300k. The sheer amount of homes needed to cover the demand is nonexistent.  At least for the suburban areas, homes are going for around 300k-350k, that's if you can out bid the competition. I know there is demand to live in the Nashville area, but this is getting out of hand. I'm debating on moving to Atlanta or back to Dallas. Nashville doesn't even have nearly the same amount of amenities in comparison to Atlanta or Dallas.

    The inventory size of Atlanta and Dallas is still abundant. Even with the home prices going up around the country, it's still nothing compared to Nashville.  For example, a 2500sqft home in suburban Atlanta is about 300k, while the equivalent price in Nashville is about 500-600k. For about 300k, you'll be lucky to get 1250sqft. Another thing that I notice that most of the new homes being built are either townhomes or med-large size homes.  Nashville really needs to do something this is getting out of hand. 

    I'm spending more time in the Alpharetta area on business and think it would be a great place to live.  With the post-pandemic, WFH, Great Resignation going on, there have to be pockets of Atlanta and Dallas that are quite appealing to some of the people who might otherwise choose Nashville/Austin/Denver but feel priced out of the market.

    • Like 3
  10. 1 hour ago, PaulChinetti said:

    Thinking about it, I’m sure closing in a stadium comes with all kinds of added HVAC requirements too. 
     

    Something like they had in Ancient Rome on the coliseum would be cool. Retractable sun shades just made of fabric/cloth. To block that hot ass August/September sun would be nice. 

    Russell Crowe Gladiator GIF by MOODMAN

    • Haha 4
  11. 57 minutes ago, smeagolsfree said:

    The problem with walking and biking is that it has to be safe! From my experience in the downtown area walking & biking, it is not a safe experience, especially the biking part. I used to bring my bike in and ride downtown but no longer. It's OK on the Greenway I suppose, but to get on regular street and bike is putting your life at risk. I do a lot of walking as you know downtown, and I have to be extremely vigilant as I have almost been hit several times by drivers who run stop signs, red lights, make illegal turns on red, speed, talk on their phones, don't pay attention, or are distracted by the many crazy thing going on downtown. 

    As a driver downtown, I have found myself distracted by other things and have almost hit pedestrians because of all the distractions of scooters, trashportaniment, etc., blocking my view. I tend to try and limit my drives and walks now to Sunday mornings.

    Spot on, Smeags.  It's so easy to be distracted by all the activity.  About three years ago, I almost pressed the gas to turn on to an interstate on ramp and happened to glance up just in time to see two tourists walking in front of my car.  I'll never make that mistake again.  @markhollin, is safety addressed in the study?

  12. 9 hours ago, smeagolsfree said:

    I am sure if you look at the list, if it were available, most of the cities that rank low are in the south and the west, and the cities ranking high are in the north and east.  Sort of a no brainer. The exception to the list in the south will probably be New Orleans, with cities like Portland ranking higher on the list in the west.

    We have to change attitudes towards mass transit and that takes a generation or two to do unfortunately to change a city to a less car dependent city. The other thing that works against Nashville is the fact that this is a city county govt., and the numbers are skewed even worse against it due to its size.

    If we can get a few neighborhoods with high scores, like East Nashville and Downtown, they will attract the residents that want a higher walk and bike score.  I think the city versus city comparison is silly.  By this measurement, no one lives in the entire city: they live at an address and want to know if they can walk and bike to places.

  13. 2 minutes ago, Flatrock said:

    Reported from 'The Hill's news service today that Nashville is 1 of 4 finalist cities being considered for hosting the 2024 Republican Convention.

    This is NOT a political post, nor is it intended to endorse nor disapprove of Nashville doing its thing. Just an update... because if it's here, it'll impact us. 

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/588744-republicans-narrow-search-for-2024-convention-site-to-four-cities

    Like hosting the NFL Draft, hosting a political convention is a rite of passage for a city.  I say, bring it on, regardless of party.

    • Like 2
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  14. 18 hours ago, BnaBreaker said:

    It must be nice going through life with such a myopic, childishly simplistic, black and white view of the world.

    Really?  Come on.  If you think this about conservatives or people who are frank about specific issues, you should spend some time with them to find out why they think the way they do.  It is usually a liberal that says to me, "It's more complicated than that" but, actually, it isn't.  Some very important decisions can be made using basic principles.  Common sense works for everyone.  I do not have to have a Ph.D. tell me how to live my life - I can make my own decisions and live with them all by myself.

    17 hours ago, samsonh said:

    He did. That map of population growth and shrinkage tells a lot. Big cities everywhere are growing, and rural counties everywhere are shrinking. Doesn’t matter which color the states are. And Florida is gaining lots of boomers. 

    Actually, it does matter what color the states are.  The five year and one year numbers show a trend that is different than the ten year numbers.  See the reasons given by the New Yorkers below.

    12 hours ago, Flatrock said:

    BTW, anecdotally, while having a flat tire repaired at my local shop on Porter Rd in East Nashville yesterday, I met 2 people - new residents, both waiting for their cars. Both from greater NYC.  Different stories, but with similarities: lower cost of living, nicer/friendlier people/environment, lower taxes. Both worked virtually. They weren't here for jobs/working - they are here for living. They love it here. There will be more coming. Many more. Now starting to meet newcomers from the Boston area, as well. Wild.

    The aspects of life that were keeping certain people in NYC, California, Illinois, Connecticut, and other high tax, blue states, have lost some their influence.  The aspects of life in these states that were tolerated pre-pandemic are not intolerable to some people.  It's not everyone.  It's never everyone.  These shifts occur over time.  This is also how investors work in the markets - a few here, a few there, some with the trend, some against, but the real pattern becomes more apparent over time.

    I've spoken with these new Nashvillians from NYC, Cali, Illinois, Minnesota, and other places.  The ones I talk with are here for the reasons given by Flatrock.  They are usually conservative politically and decided a few months ago that they could no longer put up with the policies of decades of Democratic leadership in their city or state.  They tolerated high taxes because they had great jobs.  They enjoyed the great climate of California so they put up with politicians they did not agree with.  Their extended family lived close by so they hunkered down and did the best they could in life.  The part of the city they lived in had lower crime rates than the poorer parts - in LA, San Fran, Chicago, New York, etc. - but the liberal, no-cash-bail DAs combined with the pandemic and riots of 2020 to increase crime and cause them to no longer feel safe.  The authoritarian lockdowns were too much and they longed for the freedom of red states.  As of 2020, the negatives finally outweighed the positives.  They finally said, "That's enough.  We're out of here."  And the extended family is following so we have several generations moving here together.

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