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QCxpat

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Posts posted by QCxpat

  1. 22 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

    I think that the Triangle and Charlotte have about equal population.  It's odd how "statistics" separate Chapel Hill/Durham from Raleigh.  It's clearly one metro area.

    Yesterday, the U.S. Census Bureau (CB) released population estimates for Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) and Combined Statistical Areas (CSAs) as of 07/01/2021.

    Below are the CB's pop. est. for the Triangle's leading cities, Raleigh and Durham, as well as 2 of their peer cities, Charlotte and Nashville, for comparison.

    Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA)

    Raleigh-Cary MSA                                          =  1,448,411          Rank:  41

    Durham-Chapel Hill MSA                          =     654,012           Rank:  92

    Charlotte-Concord-G'ville MSA            =  2,701,046          Rank:  22

    Nashville-Davidson-M'boro MSA         =  2,012,476          Rank:  35 

    Combined Statistical Areas (CSA)

    Raleigh-Durham-Cary, NC CSA             =  2,144,608          Rank:  31 

    Charlotte-Concord, NC-SC CSA           =  2,864,830          Rank:  21

    Nashville-D'vidson-M'boro, TN CSA  =  2,143,407          Rank:  32

    Notes:  MSAs are required to have an employment/commuter interchange of 25%+ among the component counties, while CSAs must have an employment/commuter interchange of between 15% - 25%.   

    CSAs are automatically designated for adjacent areas with an employment/commuter interchange of 25% or more.  

    In adjacent areas with an employment/commuter interchange of at least 15% but less than 25%, the designation of combined statistical areas is based on local opinion, as expressed through the Congressional delegations.

    For Reference:  In the link below, see -

    "Tables: Annual Estimates of the Resident Population in the U.S. and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021 - Metropolitan Statistical Areas and for Puerto Rico," and 

    "Datasets:  Annual Resident Population Estimates and Estimated Components of Resident Population Change for Combined Statistical Areas and their Geographic Components: April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021"  

    Link:   https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-total-metro-and-micro-statistical-areas.html

    • Like 1
  2. Today - U.S. Census Bureau Press Release and Tables

    With an estimated population of 2,701,046  as of 07/01/2021, the Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) moved up one place in the national rankings to become the nation's 22nd largest metro

    Charlotte's Combined Statistical Area (CSA) est. pop. as of 07/01/2021 was 2,864,830.   

    The Raleigh-Durham CSA est. pop. as of 07/01/2021 was 2,144,608.

    See link to Tables below -

    "Annual and Cumulative Estimates of Population Change for Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the U.S. and Puerto Rico and MSA Rankings:  April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021"

    "Annual Resident Population Estimates and Estimated Components of Resident Population Change for Combined Statistical Areas and their Geographic Components:  April 1, 2022 to July 1, 2021" 

    Links:   https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-total-metro-and-micro-statistical-areas.html

    https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/population-estimates-counties-decrease.html

    Table 6

    Top 10 Metro Areas in Numeric Growth: July 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021

    Rank Metro Area April 1, 2020
     (Estimates Base)
    July 1, 2020 July 1, 2021 Numeric Growth
    1 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 7,637,387 7,662,325 7,759,615 97,290
    2 Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ 4,845,832 4,867,925 4,946,145 78,220
    3 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX 7,122,240 7,137,747 7,206,841 69,094
    4 Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX 2,283,371 2,299,125 2,352,426 53,301
    5 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 4,599,839 4,605,504 4,653,105 47,601
    6 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA 6,089,815 6,101,146 6,144,050 42,904
    7 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 3,175,275 3,183,385 3,219,514 36,129
    8 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 2,558,143 2,566,683 2,601,788 35,105
    9 Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC 2,660,329 2,669,665 2,701,046 31,381
    10 Raleigh-Cary, NC 1,413,982 1,420,225 1,448,411 28,186

     

    Table 5

    Top 10 Metro Areas in Percent Growth: July 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021

    Rank Metro Area April 1, 2020
     (Estimates Base)
    July 1, 2020 July 1, 2021 Percent Growth
    1 St. George, UT 180,279 181,924 191,226 5.1%
    2 Coeur d'Alene, ID 171,362 172,646 179,789 4.1%
    3 Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC 487,722 491,582 509,794 3.7%
    4 Punta Gorda, FL 186,847 187,960 194,843 3.7%
    5 The Villages, FL 129,752 130,897 135,638 3.6%
    6 Boise City, ID 764,718 769,581 795,268 3.3%
    7 Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL 725,046 729,233 753,520 3.3%
    8 Provo-Orem, UT 671,185 674,967 697,141 3.3%
    9 Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 760,822 764,679 787,976 3.0%
    10 Logan, UT-ID 147,348 147,796 152,083 2.9%

     

    Table 3

    Top 10 Counties in Numeric Decline: April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021

    Rank State County April 1, 2020
     (Estimates Base)
    July 1, 2020 July 1, 2021 Numeric Decline
    1 California Los Angeles County 10,014,009 9,989,165 9,829,544 -184,465
    2 New York New York County 1,694,251 1,687,834 1,576,876 -117,375
    3 Illinois Cook County 5,275,541 5,262,741 5,173,146 -102,395
    4 New York Kings County 2,736,074 2,727,393 2,641,052 -95,022
    5 New York Queens County 2,405,464 2,395,791 2,331,143 -74,321
    6 California San Francisco County 873,965 870,014 815,201 -58,764
    7 California Santa Clara County 1,936,259 1,930,598 1,885,508 -50,751
    8 New York Bronx County 1,472,654 1,466,438 1,424,948 -47,706
    9 California Alameda County 1,682,353 1,679,844 1,648,556 -33,797
    10 Florida Miami-Dade County 2,701,767 2,692,459 2,662,777 -38,990

     

    Table 4

    Top 10 Counties in Percent Decline: April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021

    Resident Population of 20,000 or more in 2020 and 2021
    Rank State County April 1, 2020
     (Estimates Base)
    July 1, 2020 July 1, 2021 Percent Decline
    1 New York New York County 1,694,251 1,687,834 1,576,876 -6.9%
    2 California San Francisco County 873,965 870,014 815,201 -6.7%
    3 North Dakota Williams County 40,950 41,149 38,484 -6.0%
    4 Louisiana Calcasieu Parish 216,785 216,416 205,282 -5.3%
    5 California San Mateo County 764,442 762,453 737,888 -3.5%
    6 New York Kings County 2,736,074 2,727,393 2,641,052 -3.5%
    7 Massachusetts Suffolk County 797,936 795,431 771,245 -3.3%
    8 New York Bronx County 1,472,654 1,466,438 1,424,948 -3.2%
    9 New York Queens County 2,405,464 2,395,791 2,331,143 -3.1%
    10 New Jersey Hudson County 724,854 722,655 702,463 -3.1%
    • Like 1
  3. Today's CBJ  "Charlotte Metro Area adds 31K-plus people last year,"  by Jena Martin
     

    Excerpts;  "The Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia metropolitan statistical area grew by about 31,381 people between July 1, 2020 and 2021 to reach more than 2.7 million residents, according to the latest round of population estimates released this morning by the U.S. Census Bureau.  That was the ninth-highest numeric increase of U.S. metro areas over the year period.  And it just edged out the addition of 28,186 people in the Raleigh-Cary area, which had the 10th-highest increase to result in an estimated population count of about 1.45 million.  The Durham-Chapel Hill metro increased by an estimated 2,820 people to reach a population of about 654,012.  The Greensboro-High Point area's population rose by 2,087 residents to come in at about 778,848 residents.  And the Winston-Salem metro picked up 5,069 residents to reach 681,438 people.  On the western edge of the region, the Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton metro area saw about 1,206 people added to reach a population of 366,441."

    "The Charlotte metro's estimated population from 2020 to 2021 increased at a rate of 1.2%, which was 70th highest of its U.S. counterparts.  In terms of counties, Mecklenburg's population over the year increased by 0.4% — nearly 4,000 people — to about 1.12 million, the bureau's estimates show.  Mecklenburg has the second-highest total population in the state, trailing Wake County's 1.15 million residents.  Wake added 16,651 residents over the year, more than any other county in the state."

    "The Charlotte metro area's population growth was fueled by counties like Lancaster in South Carolina, which hit a milestone by reaching 100,000 residents in 2021.  It should be noted that, although not a part of the local metro, Cleveland County — about 40 miles west of Charlotte — passed that same threshold, notching an estimated population count of 100,359.  Lancaster County logged the highest year-over-year growth rate of counties included in the local metro, at 3.8%.  That was followed by Lincoln County in the northwest part of the region, with a 2.8% population increase, and Iredell County, with a 2.3% increase.  Just one county in the Charlotte metro had a decrease in population last year. Chester County lost about 67 residents — a 0.2% drop."
    • Like 3
  4. 23 hours ago, KJHburg said:

    Believe what you want.

    here is a  story this week from the San Fran Biz Times

    ""In a new study on migration out of California, 39% of CEOs and business owners surveyed said they are giving some or serious consideration to moving their companies out of the state, while another 18% said they would if they could.

    The authors of "Restoring the California Dream," Chapman University professors Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky, were featured on a webinar on the topic hosted by the Bay Area Council Thursday.

    “I think the state is minimizing the degree of competition from not only other countries but from other parts of the U.S.,” said Kotkin, a professor of urban studies. He pointed to Texas and Ohio as two examples of states winning business from California. “The public is increasingly dissatisfied, all the poll data will tell you that. The economy is much too dependent on tech, other sectors are weaker and this could become a real problem if the IPOs and the tech stocks don’t do so great this year.

    “A lot of the media and the administration doesn’t think there’s an exodus from California,” Kotkin said. “Well, it’s not like the Hebrews leaving Goshen, but 2.4 million people net out in 20 years is not insignificant.”

    That doesn't take into account movement within the state. One San Diego participant in the Bay Area Council’s webinar Thursday said their city is suffering from home prices going through the roof because people are moving there from San Francisco. The pain of soaring home prices is also frequently heard from long-time residents of newly popular destinations for the Bay Area exodus, such as Boise, Idaho.

    The ability to buy homes is a key driver in migration out of California, the study found. 

    “If you look at who’s leaving, this is our seed corn,” said Marshall Toplansky, a clinical assistant professor of management science at Chapman University. “This is the group that is going to be creating wealth that will sustain California for the next couple of generations.”

    Or they would be if they weren’t heading to Texas and elsewhere to buy homes, raise families and create that wealth. For example, Charles Schwab moved its longtime San Francisco headquarters to Texas last year, along with Tesla.

    “That does not bode well for California's next generation,” Toplansky said. “California has created more billionaires than any other place, but average people are finding it very, very difficult to live here.” 

    California lawmakers are again considering a wealth tax on the state’s millionaires and billionaires, which will go before voters if it’s passed by two-third majorities in both houses of the California legislature.

    Jennifer Hernandez, partner with Holland & Knight, criticizes key environmental legislation such as the California Environmental Quality Act, or CEQA, referring to it as “green Jim Crow." 

    “Frankly, I think it is a very, very politically effective camouflage for what amounts to keeping those people who aren’t already here out — make it just too expensive. And make it particularly too expensive for those not in the professional class,” Hernandez said of the effect CEQA litigation has in hindering housing construction, especially in wealthier neighborhoods. Hernandez is a scheduled speaker at the San Francisco Business Times upcoming event, Housing the Middle, being held March 18 in San Francisco.

    Keith Knopf, CEO of West Sacramento-based grocer Raley’s, provided a firsthand look at how California’s costs and regulations stifle investment and job creation in Northern California versus its operations in Arizona and Nevada. Knopf said Raley’s generates $3 billion in annual revenue in the region, where it employs about 10,000 people and makes an annual profit of about $65 million. But of the company’s $300 million in capital investments made over the past couple years, $270 million went to Arizona and Nevada.

    “The incremental cost when you set aside land, labor, utilities and taxes to do business in California, in the footprint I just described, is an incremental $75 million to do the exact same revenue in the same businesses in Arizona or Nevada,” Knopf said. “The capital and deployment out of state isn’t because the returns are greater there. It’s because it’s easier and more efficient to deploy there.”

    Knopf pointed to CEQA litigation as a key factor in making it more expensive and time-consuming to open a new store in Northern California, meaning jobs aren’t created to staff those new locations during the years of CEQA litigation moving through the courts.

    “The hidden cost of doing business in California really falls to people who are the wage earners. I think that’s lost in the conversation,” Knopf said. 

    Among the concluding comments posted in the chat room at the Bay Area Council’s webinar, one simply said: “Thank you for voicing publicly what many discuss in private.”""

    the middle class is moving out big time  yes billionaires and other multi millionaires continue to live there.  But facts are facts they are losing population why is that? 

     

    According to the U.S. Census Bureau ("USCB"), California had a net pop. decline from April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021.

    California's decennial population as of April 1, 2020 was 39,538,223.

    California's USCB estimated pop. as of July 1, 2021 was  39,237,830.

    California experienced a net decline in its pop. of  -300,393,  or a pop. % change of  -0.8%  from 04/01/2020 to 07/01/2021 .

    This was the 1st drop in California's pop. since it was admitted to the Union in 1850.

    In December, 2022, the US Census Bureau will release new state pop. estimates as of 07/01/2022. 

    Links:  https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/CA

    https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/about/schedule.html

    California state seal - Students | Britannica Kids | Homework Help

     

    • Thanks 2
  5. One of the questions that came up at yesterday's UP meetup was:

    • When did Charlotte pass Nashville in population?    Answer:  2010

    Nashville was incorporated as a city in 1806.   Charlotte was incorporated in 1768.

    From the 1810 census to the 2000 census,  Nashville was larger than Charlotte in every census during that 190 year period.

    Charlotte 1st passed Nashville in pop. in the 2010 census and also led Nashville in the 2020 census.

    Nashville:   2010 census  -  601,222              2020 census  -  689,447             Difference in 2010:  130,202

    Charlotte:  2010 census  -  731,424              2020 census  -  874,579             Difference in 2020:  185,132

    According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Nashville's growth rate from 2010 - 2020 was 11.0%.

    By comparison, Charlotte's growth rate from 2010 - 2020 was 21.9%.

    The U.S. Census Bureau will release pop. estimates for cities and towns in May,  2022.

    I'm confident that Charlotte will widen its lead over Nashville when the estimates are released in May.

    Aerial View of Music City - Nashville, Tennessee | Flying ou… | Flickr

    J.L. Ramsaur Photography  Aerial View of Music City - Nashville, Tennessee.  Taken on November 12, 2013.

    Aerial View of Charlotte North Carolina Photograph by Bill Cannon

     Aerial View of Charlotte North Carolina is a photograph by Bill Cannon, DSC_0845, which was uploaded on April 28th, 2020.

    • Like 3
  6. Nashville: The Evolving Urban Form by Wendell Cox, NewGeography 01/23/2022.   A nice story, with charts, regarding population growth in the Nashville metro area.

    Excerpt:  "Business Migration.  Tennessee is also attracting businesses from elsewhere.  A Hoover Institution report by Joseph Vranich and Lee E. Ohanian found that in a 3.5-year period ending in June, 2021, the corporate headquarters of 272 companies left California, with Tennessee ranking as the second leading destination state, following Texas.  Tennessee’s second ranking was an improvement over previous years, when Arizona or Nevada ranked second (based on related research)."

    "Comparative Advantages.  Not only has metro Nashville emerged as one of the principal growth centers of the nation, but its momentum may be improving, especially due to net domestic migration. These improved demographics arises, at least in part, from widening competitive advantages, such as its low cost of living, and the absence of a state income tax.  Nashville ... appears to have a bright future ahead."

     

    nashville-evolve_02.png

     

    Link:  https://www.newgeography.com/content/007325-nashville-the-evolving-urban-form

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