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MJLO last won the day on September 21 2013

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About MJLO

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  • Birthday 07/25/1980

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  1. My fear would be the HPC declaring the 5/3 tower behind it a precious piece of history, and not allowing it to be updated.
  2. So they released the 2019 city/township estimates Thursday and I've finally gotten around to doing my annual break down of numbers and the municipality level. Some people have really cool hobbies, I analyze data from the census bureau lol. There are a lot of words below. You can stop now if you don't have the time, or don't need help falling asleep Starting with cities from around the state. This years release again shows a softening of trends. The release of the county and state data showed a significant drop in growth rates and this is reflected in the cities as expected. Especially in Southeast Michigan. A lot of the larger suburban cities surrounding Detroit have shifted to a year over year decline. though most are still positive for the decade, and will show growth for the census. Cities around Grand Rapids were noticeable slower, and Wyoming again posted a small decline. Kalamazoo also posted a decline. A big surprise was Ann Arbor which posted a year over year decline of almost 1500 residents. A couple of things to note about this. 1. This softening of trends is happening nationwide. Some cities that have long been noted for continual population gains, posted surprising declines in the year over year numbers. Whatever is happening at the census bureau, their estimates have gotten steadily more bearish across the board since around 2017. Again this timeline does coincide with a political shift, though I see no evidence beyond anecdotal logic to say they are related. I can only speculate. 2. As they are getting close to the census, the speculation from other population nerds is that they are slowing down estimates in an attempt to not have a repeat of 2009, when city estimates were way off from actual census numbers. The problem I have with this is that the 2009 projections were done at the height of the great recession. Its full impact probably wasn't felt on population trends until after the data gathering period had ended. Those trends also carried into the first couple years of this decade. If you look at the year over year trends since 2010, almost 80% of the population losses in both Flint, and Detroit occurred prior to 2012. Since then their numbers have been much less dramatic. Data was off the most in places like Michigan that were disproportionately affected by the recession. It also doesn't take into account that they had a different disparity between the 1999 estimates and the 2000 census, when several cities were under counted in the estimates. This coincides with a period of economic boom coming out of the 1990's. So lets take a closer look at what is happening in W. Michigan Not a big shift between this year and last. As always I break it down from the inside and work my way out. The gain/loss numbers you see are for the decade only. The numbers at the city level fluctuate too much on a year over year basis to really get a solid idea on a trend. The more broad county and state trends are more stable to make year over year assumptions. Starting with Grand Rapids inner ring, the seven communities that form a square around Grand Rapids that if combined would have 400k people in 141 sq miles. Making it the 48th largest city in the country just behind Tulsa OK. When I add Plainfield twp immediately to the north population jumps to 434k people in 175sq mi. Which would make it the 45th largest city in the country behind Virginia beach. Next I add the outer ring townships in Kent County. This would include Rockford, but I calculate the area around Rockford separately. The areas around Rockford contain about 43k residents, when added with the outer and inner rings contain almost 600,000 people. Combined they would have a little over 400sq mi. If it were one city, it would be the 30th largest city in the country. Though at 400 sq mi it wouldn't feel anywhere near as big as the other cities in that grouping. Finally I add the townships on the eastern half of Ottawa county that have continuous development within the Grand Rapids urbanized area. This grouping represents about a 15 mile radius from downtown GR in all directions (give or take). It resents about 715,000 people, and is estimated to have gained almost 65k residents over the last 9 years. That accounts for about 70% of the growth in the state as a whole. Next up Holland. The immediately developed area around Holland contains about 116k people. When I add in the more exurban/rural feeder townships, it gets to almost 130k. Growth around Holland has slowed a fair amount in the 2nd half of the decade. I think this is due in part to Johnson Controls divesting in it's business units around 2015, and then the slow attrition of the R&D teams to facilities on the eastern side of the state. The Holland area is still gaining residents, just at a slower pace than in the 1st half of the decade. This year I grouped Grand Haven and Muskegon together. There really isn't much of a gap between where each one's development starts and end other than the county line. They really are a tale of two cities. The four entities that contained the developed areas around Grand Haven contain about 52k people. I've always felt the need to point this out, since on paper Grand Haven contains 11,000 residents which is misleading for how many people actually live on and around the waterways that define it. I only used the cities/twps immediately surrounding Muskegon to calculate it's urban population. I think the developed portion of Muskegon extends further east and north from what I've included, but I'm not nearly as familiar with Muskegon as I am the other areas we are talking about so I didn't want to over inflate. Muskegon and Grand Haven really are a tale of 2 cities. The Muskegon cities are no longer gains for the decade, the 2019 estimates were showing a lot of negative in the year over year trends. Muskegon show's a -1800 person drop in this years numbers. This has to be an adjustment from previous years, it's disproportionate to the year over year trends for Muskegon which have been more consistent prior. I suspect the same for Ann Arbor as well. I would suspect that the Muskegon cities will still be positive for the census. Other randoms items: Often times when we have these discussions there are questions about metro alignment and which counties could be added, or taken away from the metro. A big question surrounds if Ottawa County could be separated into its own metro again. At this point I think we can stop speculating/worrying about it. It's pretty clear that Kent and Ottawa Counties are becoming more linked, not less. The below chart shows the growth for Ottawa County separated into east and west sections. The eastern portion of Ottawa County are the western suburbs of Grand Rapids. Where as the western portion are the established Lakeshore communities. As you can see the suburban eastern portion of the county is growing at a significantly faster clip than the western cities. Combine this with the softening of the Yan Feng presence in Holland, what we should see is a strengthening of the commuting patterns between Kent and Ottawa. Finally here's a look at the developed areas that make up Traverse City: Traverse is another city that appears artificially small on paper. The townships I've included in this chart are the main areas that are grouped around Traverse itself. Naturally there's going to be some rural population included in this, but not enough to take away from the point. About 70k people live immediately around Traverse. It is definitely the largest and most prosperous population center in the northern part of the state. It's airport is the 4th busiest in Michigan, handling more passengers than both Lansing and Kzoo's airports. It's useless information, but gives a better idea of what you can actually expect from a region. I want to do other areas of the state, but am not familiar enough with where development starts and ends to be confident in assembling data, so if anyone is curious about other places just let me know what areas to include. Have a great Tuesday
  3. This doesn't surprise me at all. I'll bet dollars to doughnuts they were planning on closing later this year anyway and the virus situation just accelerated the process. That location is far more valuable to build something in conjunction with the giant Devos lot next to it. Vs. keeping a restaurant that stopped being relevant 10 years ago open. It was a great restaurant for late 80's/early 90's downtown, but a suburban style high end seafood place no longer fits with the current downtown market. If a visitor asked me where a good seafood place was downtown, I'd have told them Louie's. Charlies Crab wouldn't have even crossed my mind. Typically a good sign you should change your concept.
  4. I walked by it a couple weeks ago and thought that it looked better than I expected lol. Though I typically don't think a lot of the buildings that go up are nearly as bad as the group does. I must have very little understanding of what constitutes architectural good taste.
  5. Understood. More the point I was trying to make was this event is unprecedented and we can't possibly predict how it will impact migration patterns. The narrative of peoples statements have been economy bad = people leave Michigan. Historically that's true. But never at any point has the economy been bad simultaneously everywhere. So simply defaulting to that logic doesn't factor that in. Where will they go? The traditional sunbelt refuges are getting hit equally as hard.
  6. This assumes those people can find work elsewhere, which is unlikely since this is affecting service industries equally across the country. Even more so in many of the traditional "move to" hot spots. My guess is that this will limit mobility and domestic migration quite a bit. It will be months before people would be relocating due to economic circumstances. The question would then become where would be better?
  7. The cycle count for the census started over a month ago and ends on July 1. It's very unlikely that this virus will produce any measurable impact on migration patterns between now and then, it's just too soon. Especially since the effect is omni-geographic if you will. If certain areas get hit harder with economic impacts and that has an effect migration patterns, it will likely be 6-9 months out if there's any type of measurable shift. If there are impacts they won't be measurable until the 2021 cycle ends.
  8. I don't think Ottawa County is likely to be realigned in it's own MSA. The more than half of it's population growth is on the eastern side that borders GR. It's also had a thinning out of its major employment base with Yan Feng vacating what was left of the Prince legacy corporate structure last year. I'm basing this off of educated instinct and anything can happen, but indicators point toward the two counties becoming more intertwined, not less.
  9. - So they switched it to Grand Rapids-Kentwood after the 2018 metro realignment. The only possibility that I can figure for why they dropped Wyoming and added Kentwood is due to jobs? Kentwood has a smaller population than Wyoming, but I'm pretty sure it's a much bigger employment center with everything out by Steelcase and the airport. So if they go off commuting statistics to calculate it more metro commuters would be going to Kentwood. It's hard to say, they change their criteria all the damn time. -GR could pass both Buffalo and Birmingham. Though if you look at Birmingham's numbers prior to this years release it had over 1,150,000 residents. They did another weird off year realignment this year and took away one of B-ham's commuter counties from it's total. If they add it back again GR could be chasing it for a bit longer. - I do not think you will see the affects of the coronavirus reflected in the census. They have been sending out the materials for it since mid Feb and the tabulation cycle closes out on July 1st. That's too short of a time frame to have a real measurable impact. If anything you would see the affects of it in the 2021 estimates release. Though even then it's hard to predict how the virus will impact trends since the event is having the same impact on cities in both high, and low growth regions. I could speculate some outcomes but not sure If I'd even want to.
  10. This is a common misconception about Flint. The water crisis occurred within specific neighborhoods of the city itself, it wasn't even city-wide. It had virtually no impact on the suburban communities surrounding Flint. About 65% of those losses occurred between 2010, and 2014 prior to the water crisis, the decline rate for Genesee county slowed quite a bit after 2015 which was when the water crisis was at its peak. I was expecting to see an acceleration within the city during the crisis but the estimates numbers don't reflect that either. See the growth patterns for Flint metro below:
  11. Here's a regional breakdown of the whole state. Highlights: The Upper Peninsula continues it's decline. It has now dropped below 300k people. To put it in perspective, the UP had a population of 326k in 1910. Since the decline of iron ore the area has been little touched by modern investment. The decline is heaviest in the western counties that border Wisconsin. Every county is posting declines, and only remote Keweenaw County(the states least populous county) is trending close to zero. The northern lower peninsula is surprisingly resilient given the remote, rural nature. There is an east/west divide where the west side is performing better than the east. What makes it unique is that over the last 5 years both east and west regions are showing population gains in almost all counties. One outlier is Isabella County(Mount Pleasant) which has had accelerated population losses over the last 5 years. This county is home to Central Michigan University which has experienced significant enrollment declines in the same time period. My assumption is that there is a correlation. When Isabella County is removed the NE Lower Peninsula performs even better in the 2015-19 period. I'd like to explore more to understand why these rural counties are experiencing positive domestic inflow, when so many rural counties across the country are in a perpetual state of decline. The West Central, Southwest, and Capital Regions contain just shy of 3 million people. These counties combined are about the same population as states like Iowa and Arkansas, and more populous than Mississippi and Kansas. They have gained 114,482 people since 2010 (roughly 4%) and account for 111% of the states population gain. One item to note every single county on the southern border with Indiana and Ohio, are posting significant population declines. All of this growth is coming from the counties around Grand Rapids,Lansing, and Kalamazoo County. The I-75 Corridor economically and historically tied to the auto industry is a tale of two regions. The old school GM cities of the northern corridor, and the R&D and corporate hub of the Detroit area. Together they offset each other in gains/losses, and the area has lost about 1600 residents since 2010. That's the nutshell view of the 2019 county releases. Below is a map that illustrations the east/west divide in the state regarding population growth. If you split the Lower Peninsula down the middle the western side of the state accounts for virtually all of the states population growth. The Detroit, Ann Arbor, and Lansing areas all have positive population growth for the last 9 years. This is enough to offset the significant losses are around Flint, and the Tri-Cities but the eastern half of the state has only gained 4,700 residents in that time frame, and it's estimated to have lost 4500, in the last year alone. It is a feasibility that when the 2020 census estimates are released it will have recorded losses for the decade. Ok that's all i'm going to post. If you guys have specific requests or questions let me know. I can post the full data set, but am not trying to overwhelm the thread. I hope you're all holding up ok -Matt
  12. So 2019 county and metro estimates were released Thursday, per usual I break the whole state down by regions(self defined) results below. Starting off with metro areas: State estimates for 19' were released in December and it showed a slowing of growth all over the country, as well as declines in many states in the north/northeast. Michigan still posted 2,785 positive growth, but that is the slowest trend in about 7 years. So I was curious to know where in the state was impacting the trend for the metro release. The Detroit area posted a -2,400 person decline. This is the first time the metro has posted a decline since 2011. It is still showing anemic gains for the decade, and I predict It will show positive when the census is released. Even with the declines Detroit is still fairing better than many of it's counterparts. The current national trend is a massive slow down in immigration. New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles(first time in history) have all started posting metropolitan population losses over the last couple of years. Rustbelt poster children Cleveland and Pittsburgh are still losing residents at a rate more than twice as fast as Detroit itself. To illustrate how wide spread this slow down is, economic growth juggernaut San Jose California was estimated to have lost more than 3,100 residents in the estimate year. Bay area counter part San Francisco only gained about 5500 residents. Even with the declines, Detroit still appears to be fairing better than average when compared to some of it's counterparts. Though to be clear major metro's in the south and mountain west are still posting very strong growth numbers, but this is has been the case for 60+ years. Those metro's have always had much heavier domestic inflow than legacy cities. They are not nearly as susceptible to international migration patterns. The Grand Rapids area continues to be the strongest gainer within the state. The areas around Grand Rapids account for more than 90% of the states growth as a whole the over last 9 years. It gained about 3 times as many residents last year, compared to the state as a whole. That said Grand Rapids experienced its slowest growth year of the decade. I think this was to be expected as the growth cycle in the automotive industry hit a maturation point around 2017. Automotive is the largest single component in the manufacturing portion of the Grand Rapids economy. It's resurgence in the first half of the decade was a significant growth driver. As automotive leveled off so did some of the growth momentum in GR. At the same time over the last decade GR's eds/meds, and corporate sector(Meijer, SpartaNash, Gordon Foods, Amway, Perrigo ect.) have surged. These sectors are far more resilient to economic cycles, and are crucial for future sustainability. The Medical Mile continues to grow, and with it recruitment for highly educated, skilled positions will continue. The majority of the population gain within the city of Grand Rapids itself is coming from college educated, upper middle income segment. It is a microcosm of the region as a whole. Even if a full downturn in manufacturing occurs, I find it unlikely for the Grand Rapids area to enter a population decline anytime soon. Over the last 20 years the area has rapidly transitioned away from being almost entirely manufacturing dependent. This of course is barring any major shocks to society as a whole, which is not something that I can't predict. Other points of note the Lansing metro continues it's slow/steady growth. Its estimates for the last year haven't slowed. The metro areas in the thumb (Flint/Saginaw) are still declining, but still at much slower rates than during the great recession. One surprise was the year over year drop for Ann Arbor. Ann Arbor is generally regarded as the tech, education golden child for the state. It has been one of the brighter spots for Michigan population trends over the last 9 years. So I was curious when it posted an -1800 drop. When I look further into the numbers I see that growth momentum for Ann Arbor peaked in 2015-16 and has slowed every subsequent year, and now declining. I can only speculate the cause. It could be related to the slow down in immigration. I know the University of Michigan is a destination university for international students. Though I am not aware of a specific drop in enrollment. The R&D/tech sector in Ann Arbor tends to attract specific types of immigrants as well. It would be interesting to learn the factor surrounding this.
  13. The border is still open for trade. I'm sure there are still disruptions regardless. I know we have a major Canadian supplier as well, though we haven't had disruptions yet.
  14. Construction is considered critical. I work for a bathtub manufacturer and we haven't slowed any of our production because it's considered "critical". I've been stuck down here in South Boston VA(cue banjos) working for the past two weeks because of it.
  15. I can get some pictures. I fly in around 11 sometimes, and pretty much fly out every Monday at 6am. ( Yes my friends are approaching me in hazmat suits at the moment :eyeroll:)
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