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Everything posted by MJLO

  1. Is this (in part) a consolidation of the offices across the street in the old Children's hospital? I wonder what they will do with that space.
  2. Actually I think Hartford, and Providence hold this distinction
  3. They've opposed a lot of things in the past, especially in the 90's and earlier. They were very typical Calvinists originally, but their positions have modernized quite a bit in the last 25-30 years so who knows.
  4. 12,000 seats is the minimum required to host a tournament game. VAA has 10,800 fixed seats. It can go over 13,000 for concerts with the added floor space, but it only gets to 11,500 with a basketball court in the center. It would meet the requirement if they ever finished the bowl.
  5. I think it's something to consider. Though I don't know that it's an apples to apples comparison. The U of Miami is 21 miles from Hard Rock Stadium in a metro that has pretty heavy congestion, it's a pain in the ass to make that commute. On top of that Miami as an area is notoriously ambivalent to its sports teams, and even their pro sports franchises struggle with attendance. GVSU main campus to downtown is only 12 miles, much less congested, and the downtown and main campuses are pretty interconnected. A significant chunk of the student population already lives in the city. That and I think W. Michigan an area is pretty hungry for a team that would compete at a more national level. The population is far less transient and more prideful than a place like Miami, and you're bound to have a strong base of local support between alum and just the general population. It would be much easier to fill a 25k(ish) stadium, than a place that holds 65k like Hard Rock.
  6. My hope is that they get serious about it, and the have boosters that will help them be aggressive in getting their next coach. I wish the West Michigan billionaire families cared about bringing a national level football program to the area. They could do what UTSA did and build a program in less than a decade(Though to be fair San Antonio already had the Alamo Dome before they decided to build a program.) The money is already in the area for it, there's also a decent corporate presence as well. I just don't think the people who have it care enough haha. The ultimate dream for me: Build a stadium on the west side of the river. GVSU enters FBS as an independent or a group of 5 team. GVSU administration and local wealth have the institutional and financial commitment to build a competitive program. Meijer sponsors a bowl game at new stadium. For the first time in history aerial night shots of GR appear on ESPN
  7. I've always been under the impression that the institution has been historically opposed to the idea from the folks I knew. I also know other schools in D2 don't have a lot of love lost for GVSU when it comes to sports programs. They pretty much dominate almost every smaller interest sport due to the shear size of the student population. There aren't to many athletic departments with 25k students competing at such a low level.
  8. I doubt Wayne State would make that transition, not sure it would be worth it for them. It would have to compete with U of M and EMU for the same local attention. I've been wondering if/when Grand Valley would ever do this. It would be awesome if it comes to fruition. Stepping up to FCS vis the Ohio Valley Conference makes sense. Even though the MAC is one of the lowest tier leagues in the bowl subdivision, the jump in recruiting and money needed for facilities would just be too much I think. Some schools jump up to the highest tier(FBS) right away but they typically struggle. Though if they could find some big boosters and build a stadium downtown it would be a pretty big deal for the GR area. GR has to be one of the largest metro's without a D1 school. Technically WMU is in the media market but it doesn't draw large interest from a huge swath of it. A D1 school in GR would have a better chance of tapping into that radio/tv market $.
  9. It would make sense if it were more ambulatory space. Though they would also be opening a bunch of existing space in 25-35 Michigan St by building the innovation center in NoMo(or whatever they are calling it). That would be a bunch of new clinical space on the hill if that building were built. I've been out of the loop for the goings on at Spectrum for over a year now. Maybe they really do have demand for that much more activity on the hill. Or maybe it's just another alternative for the administrative space and they are considering not going forward building on Monroe? Though that wouldn't make a lot of sense since it would only add to the parking concerns. Spectrums plans seem like they constantly evolve.
  10. Really the Omni? I think it's one of the ugliest buildings built in the last 10 years. GR already has plenty of characterless boxes where they used "abstract" window patterns in place of actual architectural features lol. Might be better off keeping the Keeler empty. I cant imagine how dated all of those buildings are going to look 15 years from now.
  11. Is there really any point in discussing the potential political and humanitarian mistakes of the past when it comes to freeways now? Seems like a debate for a different thread. Whatever displacement that transpired 50-70 years ago can't be fixed by removing them in 2021. They are a vital part of economic health, and last I checked no one is under threat of losing their homes or way of life by updating and maintaining what is already there at this point.
  12. Grand Rapids would not be Grand Rapids without the left lane exits! I don't want to come home to visit a city where I don't have to enter the freeway on the right and immediately cross 5 lanes of traffic to exit the freeway on the left 1/4 mile later. That would be no fun
  13. Yeah I don't disagree with that. That's a problem with these OMB standards for calculating Metro areas. Decentralized population clusters like West Michigan create a problem. Grand Rapids doesn't feel like a 1.5 million metro area, yet it has more people living within a 40 mile radius of it than many 1.5 million metros. Also the inclusion of exurban counties in metro area's is more common than you might think. For instance Omaha's metro is nearly 2,000 sq mi larger than Grand Rapids with 100k less people. It's all relative I suppose.
  14. Ok so I've figured out how to use the census reporter tool that shows commuting patterns between counties and MSA's etc. The most recent data only goes to 2018. I must be reading the data wrong. Not only does it show Barry County with enough commuters to be included in the GR MSA (28.9%) It shows that more people commute to Kent from Barry for work vs. folks who both live and work in Barry County. Additionally the 2018 numbers show the strongest commuting percentage to date between the counties. Similar results when I look at Newaygo County, with 29.5% of their workforce commuting into Kent. Both Ionia and Montcalm Counties have more than 30% of their workforces commuting into Kent County which is greater than their core employment bases. Almost half of Muskegon's workforce stays with in it's county, however in 2018 17.6% commuted into Ottawa, and 14.5% commuted into Kent. Together that's 32.1% of Muskegon County's workforce commuting into the two core counties of the GR MSA. Allegan County is even more confusing. Only 28.3% of it's workforce lives and works there. 22.5% commute into Kent, and 19% commute into Ottawa county. That's a total of 41% of it's workforce commuting into the GR MSA. Though like Muskegon neither county has 25% of a commute so that may have something to do with it. That still doesn't explain Barry and Newaygo not being added into the core metro, the only difference between them, Montcalm, and Ionia is that both the latter have more than 30% commuting in. So I'm wondering if there's a margin of error they are not showing, and if the cross commute could fall below 25% with the MOE they perhaps do not include the county into the core metro. Still every year it shows a strengthening of commuting patterns for Barry and Kent, which means there was a lower percentage of workers commuting from Barry County into Kent when it was included in 2013. Either way Ottawa County's commute into Kent stands at about 38% of it's workforce. There's little if any chance of the two being statistically separated in the next alignment. If anyone has insight as to how these decisions are made please feel free to share. As of right now it makes no sense why Barry and Newaygo counties aren't included in the metro, and I'm pretty confused on Allegan too. The 2023 alignment could have a GR MSA with 1.5million people, or 950k the the margins of error are perfectly aligned. https://onthemap.ces.census.gov/
  15. I'd say this is very true. That's not even counting the amount of snow birds that migrate north between mid April and Memorial day.
  16. Well remember the NW lower gained over 10k residents for the decade. If you just look at the 2019-20 number it shows a loss but that's almost entirely attributed to Mecosta county so there clearly was an over estimation. My guess is that models weren't set up to anticipate the attrition of student populations. I think that's more of a one time adjustment. Overall the NW Lower is holding its own mostly due to the Traverse City/Petoskey/Charlevoix regions. Ignore the 2011 date over the screen shot the numbers in the 2nd column are for 2019. I didn't check that before I screen shotted.
  17. It's time for the geographical breakdown of state population for the decade. I'm sure you're all ecstatic! e The corresponding label on the map matches the data set below it. I included the 2019-2020 numbers to get a better idea of where in the state was under estimated vs. over. They definitely over estimated losses in the UP, though it still lost almost 10k people across all regions over the decade. They also over estimated the losses in the northern I-75 corridor as well. What I found interesting was that college centric counties were significantly OVER estimated. Both Isabella County (CMU) and Mecosta County (Ferris State) had significant population losses over the decade. My assumption is that this largely correlated to ongoing enrollment drops at the universities there. Together they lost 9,000 residents which accounts for more than 2/3rds of the losses in the norther lower regions. Even with those losses the Western side of the region gained more than 10,000 residents for the decade, while the Lake Huron side lost about 13k. Though counted in that 13k are the 6,000 lost residents in Isabella County so when not factored in the results are less dramatic in the rural areas. Still every county but Otsego County (Gaylord) posted losses on the Lake Huron side. The star of northern Michigan is definitely the Grand Traverse region which gained 11,450 residents during the decade. When added all together the areas basically north of Big Rapids total 1,081,012 residents, about 10.7% of the overall state population. The counties around Grand Rapids posted a robust 111k resident gain, they were slightly underestimated in the estimates models, but largely they came in where we thought they'd be. Surprising was the underestimation of Grand Rapids suburbs compared to the city, and the rural counties to the east (Ionia, Montcalm, and Barry) which all gained a couple thousand more than estimates models predicted. Ottawa County officially passed Ingham County in population. It is now the 7th most populated county in the state. Perhaps now they will consider building another direct north/south road in the county. As of now if you're not on US-31 on the lake shore you have to make a series of turns on several different back roads to get through the county. Perhaps they should finally start planning for the growth that's been happening there the last several decades. The Lansing area grew, but it was over estimated in models and posted less than 2% gains. Prior to the census models had it gaining as much as 4% . The actual population gains were half of what estimates had said. There could be a university correlation there as well, but I can only speculate. Surprising to me is the Southwest corner of the state. Every county except for Kalamazoo lost population over the decade. Kalamazoo County was also over estimated and the city surprisingly lost people. Again there could be a university correlation. The region as a whole gained almost 5k residents, but that's all out of Kzoo county which gained more than 11,000. I would consider that area of the state more attractive with a decent corporate presence, and relatively easy access to Chicago and South Bend. It is largely rural and population attrition from rural areas has been the trend since the 90s. I would still expect these counties to perform better than the more isolated northern Michigan counties, but they actually perform worse. The northern I-75 corridor (Flint/MBS/ the thumb) remains the most stagnant and declining part of Michigan. It's not surprising since the cities that anchor it are old auto manufacturing hubs that have never been able to recover their economic losses from so many of those jobs shifting south. Still their declines were over estimated by about 3,000. Losses for the region were over 42k residents. Genesee County (Flint) lost about 4.5% of it's population which is less than I expected. The city of Flint plummeted to 80k residents, but the county didn't fair near as bad. The affects of the water crisis were largely contained to the city, as the losses at the county level were less than expected. Also Genesee County has been slowly turning into a commuting option for folks working in Oakland County. I imagine this is helping the county from entering a total free fall. The southern I-75 corridor had by far the largest corrections from estimates. It jumped almost 100,000 residents from what estimates models had predicted. The Detroit area out gained the Grand Rapids by about 15k residents, but didn't come near GR's growth rate. When combined the 2 halves of the I-75 corridor were just shy of 6million residents, they account for almost 60% of Michigan as a whole. What's more interesting is Wayne County only losing 27K residents for the decade, it's slowest decline by far since the 1970s. Also interesting is that several inner ring Detroit suburbs that had been stagnant or declining over the last several decades posted surprisingly robust gains in the 2020 census. The city of Dearborn actually gained more residents than Grand Rapids. It's great news for the Detroit area that these long time stagnant communities have started seeing resident influxes again. This is definitely something I plan on studying more. So there's my phone it in recap of 2020 census numbers for the state. If anyone would like I can post the hard data for the counties. I used to post the hard data but it created some very busy posts that were hard to follow.
  18. Here's the breakdown for Muskegon. Overall the county grew pretty uniform at about 2%. There were low spots with Muskegon City, Twp, and Heights losing population(the Heights by a noticeable margin). There were also higher growth spots with Egelston TWP leading the county at 12% growth. WARNING FRIVOLOUS RANT COMING: Tiny Roosevelt Park also posted an impressive 8% growth rate, though in raw numbers it's only 341 people. To be fair an inner ring burb that's only one square mile growing at all is good. Roosevelt Park has always been one biggest of the poster children for the redundant nature of Michigan suburbs. In the late 50's/ early 60's there was this proliferation of unincorporated townships bordering core cities that chartered as cities themselves to prevent annexation. They didn't want the city's to annex them and then have to pay city taxes, and deal with city problems. At the time it made sense because the cities were powerful and they were all starting to lose their tax bases to the extra spaces just outside of their borders. The dirty consequence were core cities that were politically walled in by other entities that syphoned off their tax bases, wealth, and political clout leaving them nowhere to go but decline. All due respect to Roosevelt Park residents logically I don't see any value in one sq mi of land being politically autonomous from an overall core. The result is redundant government services that cost extra tax dollars and hinder core cities from regaining health. There are literally hundreds of examples like this (though none as tiny as RP) throughout the state and they are a huge contributing factor to why Michigan as a whole has such weak core cities and is struggling to catch up in the modern era that places a higher value on stronger urban cores with character. Michiganders love their tiny fractured governments and plethora of redundant school districts. If there ever were to be a shift and cities/services started consolidating/merging, the tax payers would save literally billions, and the state would be much better positioned to make moves in regards to overall urban health.
  19. That comment was not related to redistricting, it was related to metro alignment which happens at the county level. Redistricting happens at a microscopic census tract level. You are correct, the GR MSA is too big for just one congressional seat. I believe the current MSA has parts of 3 different congressional districts. I have no clue what it will look like with this new citizen based redistricting commission. In regards to my comment. The OMB reassesses the alignment of metropolitan areas every 5 years. In 2002 the original GR MSA which included 4 counties was split in to 4 separate statistical areas. It made the area artificially small on paper, as it made Ottawa County an independent metro, and split the GR urban area in half. In the 2013 alignment they combined Kent and Ottawa counties back into the same metro which boosted the MSA above 1 million people again. When it comes to statistical areas it can be hard to predict what the OMB will do. That million+ person threshold for a metro area gives a surprising amount of visibility to a region which is silly since all they do is rearrange how they cluster counties together and not much else changes. Either way there's on going concern/speculation about if/when they split Ottawa and Kent Counties which would again drop the region below 1 million people, and it would no longer be considered a "large" metro. It's really obnoxious and counterintuitive sometimes(Like how the city of Holland is in two separate statistical areas depending on which side of 32nd st. you live on). Since metro's are calculated based on commuting patterns my comment was speculating that the commuting between the two counties is likely getting stronger, and it's less likely to see a fractured metro area again.
  20. OK so I've got some numbers compiled let's hope I haven't mistyped anything but here goes. EDIT: sorry everyone it looks like the website shifted away from embedded photos at some point. [img]https://live.staticflickr.com/7033/26524381924_c70b07cf36_o.png[/img] As always I start with the inner ring and work my way out. This years census showed that estimates for Michigan were under by about 90k residents. I had speculated that this underestimate came from a political climate that either incentivized immigrant populations to be under the radar, or perhaps discounted those who were not legal citizens. I suspected this would affect areas with higher proportions of Latino immigrants. In my head I thought the Grand Rapids area would be undercounted because of this. It was undercounted, but nowhere nearly as dramatic as the results for the Detroit area which ended up with a net gain of about 80k residents off of original estimates. The GR area was under counted only by about 6,000. Grand Rapids city was OVER estimated per census by about 1,500. This resulted in an underestimation of suburban areas by about 8,000 people. What I have found by looking at the numbers throughout under estimated states, is that suburban areas in general were under estimated while core cities were over estimated(A few exceptions to this rule largely in the Northeast). The inner ring: The city of Grand Rapids is stuck in a purgatory of "almost" since 1970. It inches so close to 200k residents, but every time the census comes out it's not quite there. That said the city grew almost 6% and had the largest numerical gain for the decade and ended with it's highest official recorded population ever. The six inner ring burbs all grew by a greater % than GR with the largest percent gains in Kentwood and GR Township. As I stated previously Wyoming is officially the 2nd largest city in the western half of the state. It is now larger than Kalamazoo by more than 3k residents. The total inner ring which if combined would be city of 401,213 people in 140sq mi. To put this in perspective Birmingham Alabama has 200k people in 148 sq mi. From another perspective Boston MA has 675k people in 48sq mi so it's all relative. The inner ring gained 26k people total for a growth rate of almost 7%. Next we add in the outer ring, and Rockford. The outer ring suburbs in Kent County posted solid double digit growth rates. The areas especially along M6 continued the surge in population they have been experience the last several decades. I like to cluster the areas around Rockford together because I've always felt that the areas that they"identify" as Rockford , and are larger than just Rockford city. You'll note I included Cannon Twp as part of Rockford, and also alone in the inner ring. It is not added into the numbers twice. Next are the Ottawa County townships along the eastern border with Kent. These are the Western GR burbs that have the strongest commuting ties into Kent. They posted the strongest growth numbers of any area. Particularly impressive are Allendale, Georgetown, Jamestown and Blendon Townships. At 54,000 residents Georgtown TWP is the largest municipality in Ottawa County. I was under the impression that it was largely built out which is clearly not the case since it gained the 2nd most residents in raw numbers after GR. The eastern half of Ottawa grew at a significantly faster rate than the western half. This combined with a softening automotive employment base along the lakeshore should strengthen the commuting ties between the counties. I am fairly confident that Ottawa won't be separated from Kent County again. The final total at the end of the chart roughly represents the Grand Rapids urbanized area. There are a few townshipsthat aren't dense enough to be included, my guess is that the urbanized number will be around 650,000 when published. The township on the eastern edge of Kent County grew at almost twice the rate of the Northern townships. Though by actual raw numbers there is not a big difference. More data for the surrounding areas and counties: Here are bordering townships from outlying rural counties. Montcalm and Ionia Counties both grew by over 3,000 people. Both were to have only estimated to have grown a couple hundred each. That's a significant under estimation for rural counties. I would have thought the bulk of that growth would be coming from the areas near the border with Kent County. That growth must be more evenly distributed through the counties as the border areas did not show that strong of growth in Ionia County, it was a bit stronger in Montcalm. Still it makes me wonder how far out from the folks in the country must be commuting into the metro. Barry County is a mystery to me. It suddenly disappeared from the GR metro alignment during the 2018 shift, and Ionia County was added back in. The townships that border Kent County account for 1/4th of Barry County's population, but a full 2/3rds of it's overall growth. I have a hard time imagining that it dropped below the 15% threshold to be counted in the CSA, and these numbers would indicate a strengthening in commuting patterns. I need to spend more time researching OMB guidelines for statistical areas to understand why. I have theories but I don't want to put anyone to sleep. Allegan County is considered the "Holland Michigan Micropolitan area", because a portion of Holland extends into Allegan. Even though the majority of Holland is in the GR MSA. The county grew to more than 120k residents making it the 4th most populous county in the area after Muskegon. The townships that border Kent County posted some of the most impressive growth numbers in the region at 17% for the decade. Particularly impressive was Leighton Township with surged almost 42% since 2010. I am not confident that the growth in this quadrant of the county would be enough to shift commuting patterns to adding Allegan fully back into the GR metro. It only accounts for about 1/4 the total population. The rest of the county is divided into commuting pockets: Plainwell/Otsego commute into Kalamazoo. The northwestern portions of the county largely commute into the Holland area, and you have self containing pockets of the county such as the city of Allegan, and Saugatuck/Douglas. Grand Haven/Holland: FInally here's a breakdown of the western side of Ottawa County, Grand Haven and Holland. I've always thought Grand Haven was artificially small on paper. When you add up the urbanized cluster around it you get a city of almost 50,000 people. Also interesting is that there are more jobs than employment base in the Grand Haven area. A significant enough portion of Muskegon's urbanized area commutes into Ottawa County which is enough to include Muskegon in the GR CSA. The areas around Grand Haven grew faster than those around Holland, Though Holland still grew more in raw numbers. The areas around Holland comprise and urbanized population of around 110k people. When I include the Allegan County portions that immediately feed into Holland you get and area with about 117k residents. Holland has been going through a shift in its employment base with Johnson Controls divesting in it's Holland business units, and the majority of the R&D and corporate positions being shifted over to the Detroit area. Still it's managing to grow at a healthy enough pace. Alright I'm ending it here. If you all have any questions or requests let me know.
  21. I have a compulsory fascination with population stats and how they compare geographically. I'm not sure I can wait lol, it's worth the effort for me.
  22. Official 2020 census numbers are out. Though I can't find any easy to convert data sets so it's going to take a couple days to build some stuff to report. A few quick notes from what I see. Most of the states underestimates from 2020 happened in SE Michigan/Detroit metro. GR metro was underestimated from the 2020 numbers by about 6,000 so the official total is 1,087,592. Most of those underestimates came in suburban areas, Ottawa, Montcalm, and Ionia counties. Kent County was shorted a little but was largely accurate. Here's the quickfacts data for those counties. Note you have to look at the 4th row down to see the 2020 numbers. The first bolded row is still the 2019 estimates. https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/montcalmcountymichigan,ioniacountymichigan,ottawacountymichigan,kentcountymichigan/PST045219 Grand Rapids city was overestimated by a couple thousand people, official numbers come in just below 199k people. That official 200k number continues to allude GR. Wyoming officially surpassed Kalamazoo in population. Kzoo was surprisingly overestimated and came in at 73,598 for official 2020 numbers. Wyoming is 76,501. Kentwood was significantly underestimated coming in at 54,304 an 11.5% jump in growth. I had been saying that the 2019 and 2020 estimates were off in both Kentwood and Wyoming. They both have large immigrant populations and logic tracked a slow down in growth in more diverse municipalities over the last couple years of the decade. I think this is largely going to prove true across the board. The table for select cities below. More to come https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/kentwoodcitymichigan,kalamazoocitymichigan,wyomingcitymichigan,grandrapidscitymichigan/PST045219
  23. Yeah that definitely has the feel of "urban renewal" cladding.
  24. Do you think it will age worse than the old facade? I really like the update to the skyline.
  25. Man I'd be nervous to invest capital in new cinema space right now. Though that's why these decisions are made by smarter people than I.
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