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Richmond International Airport


eandslee

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19 minutes ago, wrldcoupe4 said:

I was thinking the same thing. Because Norfolk is probably the better option?  Bigger market, more tourism, more military, etc. as a layman it seems like a safer bet. 

I wonder if it’s due to because it’s right on the ocean where they can fly overseas. It’s a shame we are dead center in a very unfortunate situation to the north (dc) and east (hampton roads).

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48 minutes ago, wrldcoupe4 said:

I was thinking the same thing. Because Norfolk is probably the better option?  Bigger market, more tourism, more military, etc. as a layman it seems like a safer bet. 

All true - makes me wonder though - because it seems like RVA has a LOT more upside to it on a bunch of fronts than does Norfolk. Yeah - it's bigger - but take away the military and what do you have left - tourism because of the ocean? (I realize the military isn't going anywhere and it's a big draw for commercial airlines, obviously) - still - isn't RVA metro actually growing slightly faster than is Hampton Roads? (from 2010-20 - metro HR grew by about 90K residents - metro RVA grew by 130K residents). Yes, they have a fairly sizeable overall advantage right now - about 500K total population difference. As far as central cities go, Norfolk itself is losing population while RVA is growing at a decent clip. (Not as quickly as I want her to grow, but hey, at least she's growing!) -- and Virginia Beach's RATE of growth has slowed dramatically from when it really boomed in the ''70s, 80s and '90s.

Interesting how this dynamic seems to be playing out. Norfolk got the focus city while Richmond -- passed over for a focus city -- is getting the lion's share of service expansion.

Edited by I miss RVA
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I was in Hampton over the last 8 days, and just got back to Richmond earlier today. But while I was down there, the local news there this morning was reporting that many people were getting rides to Richmond Int'l to use alternate airlines because Southwest cancelled so many flights out of Norfolk. Not sure what to make out of that (if anything) but it does say at least one thing: wherever they were going the destination wasn't available out of Newport News/Williamsburg.

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7 hours ago, plain said:

I was in Hampton over the last 8 days, and just got back to Richmond earlier today. But while I was down there, the local news there this morning was reporting that many people were getting rides to Richmond Int'l to use alternate airlines because Southwest cancelled so many flights out of Norfolk. Not sure what to make out of that (if anything) but it does say at least one thing: wherever they were going the destination wasn't available out of Newport News/Williamsburg.


have to say. I really wonder what our total numbers for ric for the year will be. Any guesses anyone? I’m going to say just a hair past 4 million. 

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4 hours ago, Downtowner said:


have to say. I really wonder what our total numbers for ric for the year will be. Any guesses anyone? I’m going to say just a hair past 4 million. 

Given that we've been pacing just behind our all-time record year of 2019 on a month to month basis, my guess it that we'll end up in the low 4 million range - something like 4.1 or MAYYYYYBE 4.2 million. I believe in 2019 we topped out at 4.3 million if memory serves (and I'm too darn awful lazy right now to go look it up).

As air travel continues to recover from the effects of the pandemic, I hope and pray RIC will start making significant progress to top 5 million annually. That's an achievable goal that IMO we should seriously be able to reach (barring anything horrific unforeseen) in the next couple of years.

So I'll toss this prospect out to our knowledgeable airport gurus - what do you think? How realistic/reasonable is it to expect RIC to top 5 million passengers annually by, say, 2025 or 2026?

Edited by I miss RVA
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  • 2 weeks later...
On 12/29/2022 at 10:35 AM, ancientcarpenter said:

Booked RIC to SanFran in late Feb with Breeze. $280 direct oneway flight AND it was first class AND  6 checked bags at 50lb each.

 

Can't beat this deal...if the plane gets there...

Unfortunately, plans change and we need to go to LA instead of SanFran. Wish Breeze had an LA route!

Looks like there is a Norfolk>LA route...but it doesn't start until May. Interesting they didn't pick RVA to LA route.

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13 minutes ago, ancientcarpenter said:

Looks like there is a Norfolk>LA route...but it doesn't start until May. Interesting they didn't pick RVA to LA route.

It is surprising Breeze hasn’t added LA to RIC yet. Maybe they think a larger airline like American could add it soon and they don’t want the competition.
 

Seems like it could be a contender for a lot of airlines, not just Breeze. Should be considered by others like American, Spirit, JetBlue, Delta and United as with direct service, I think we could see over 250 PDEW (currently has 167 PDEW with no direct service) on this route which is more than enough to warrant direct nonstop service, even if you only capture 50% of the market.
 

Hopefully this route gets started soon as it seems like an easy win for any airline and would serve the largest unserved market for RIC. 

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2 hours ago, blopp1234 said:

It is surprising Breeze hasn’t added LA to RIC yet. Maybe they think a larger airline like American could add it soon and they don’t want the competition.
 

Seems like it could be a contender for a lot of airlines, not just Breeze. Should be considered by others like American, Spirit, JetBlue, Delta and United as with direct service, I think we could see over 250 PDEW (currently has 167 PDEW with no direct service) on this route which is more than enough to warrant direct nonstop service, even if you only capture 50% of the market.
 

Hopefully this route gets started soon as it seems like an easy win for any airline and would serve the largest unserved market for RIC. 

1.) Yep - that makes sense. 

2 & 3.) AMEN, brother!! From your keyboard to God's eyes! :tw_thumbsup:

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3 hours ago, walmartjamesbond said:

I worked for Breeze when they launched out of Norfolk. They invested over 14 million dollars into the Airport, they’re not going anywhere. Breeze has a large stake in the new terminal expansion in our concourse A expansion.

Richmond is a great market for Breeze and they will continue the see growth there. However, that alone does not determine where an airline gets based. There is A LOT more that goes into it. 

Breeze has something in the ball park of ~185 crew members based at ORF. They’re still adding to that. 

The tourism is what drives norfolk’s travel. It’s a resort town that is also the gateway to the Outer Banks, it’s the closest airport. Winter months are always slower here but after April is when the real numbers climb. 

The same can be said for Richmond. I’m sure as breeze add’s more A220’s to their fleets you will see the increased routes to LA / Provo.

I will say I’m surprised Avelo went to Newport News instead of Richmond. Sun Country is also a huge win for you all. 

Great information! Thanks for providing some clarity on this. Also a bit surprised that Avelo chose PHF over RIC - although doesn't Avelo SPECIFICALLY target smaller airports with significantly less traffic? RIC is the third-busiest airport in the Commonwealth, behind only the two D.C. airports.

So based on your professional experiences, what do you think it would take for RIC to land a focus-city/flight-ops center for an airline the way ORF did Breeze? What constitutes the "LOT more" that goes into it? RVA is not the touristy area that Norfolk and Virginia Beach are. It's not a gateway to the Outer Banks. But it IS a potent business/corporate center, still something of a financial center (though she lost most of that punch to North Carolina decades ago), a university city. She is the center of state government, a potent (and fast-growing) manufacturing center, and is an up-and-coming center for scientific and medical research, among many other things. So what (aside from tourism and perhaps the heavy military presence and a difference in market size) swayed Breeze to base flight ops out of ORF and not RIC if the RVA market is considered such a good market for Breeze? And -- to my original question - what does she need to convince an airline to set up shop here?

Edited by I miss RVA
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3 hours ago, I miss RVA said:

Great information! Thanks for providing some clarity on this. Also a bit surprised that Avelo chose PHF over RIC - although doesn't Avelo SPECIFICALLY target smaller airports with significantly less traffic? RIC is the third-busiest airport in the Commonwealth, behind only the two D.C. airports.

So based on your professional experiences, what do you think it would take for RIC to land a focus-city/flight-ops center for an airline the way ORF did Breeze?

Have to say based on what he told us. I feel extremely hopeless we ever have a hub or Become a focus city. We are just in a very unfortunate spot here between dc and Hampton roads airports. I feel like that was a serious gut bunch of hopelessness. Maybe one day but it’s going to take alot to prove me wrong. I hope I’m wrong but I don’t see us landing a hub or focus city ever? I mean how often do airlines switch cities for hubs? There is only so many airlines too that could establish a hub. I can’t see it but man I hope I’m wrong one day. 

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16 minutes ago, Downtowner said:

Have to say based on what he told us. I feel extremely hopeless we ever have a hub or Become a focus city. We are just in a very unfortunate spot here between dc and Hampton roads airports. I feel like that was a serious gut bunch of hopelessness. Maybe one day but it’s going to take alot to prove me wrong. I hope I’m wrong but I don’t see us landing a hub or focus city ever? I mean how often do airlines switch cities for hubs? There is only so many airlines too that could establish a hub. I can’t see it but man I hope I’m wrong one day. 

Don't lose hope, brother. Landing a hub or focus city isn't dependent on Breeze - and it's not dependent on getting Breeze (or any other airline) to pull up stakes on a flight ops set up at one airport to come here. There are a LOT of potential opportunities. In doing a little research, I noticed that Frontier serves ORF. Why can't the powers that be here make a big play to get them to add RIC to their roster of destinations? There are other airlines out west that have very limited presence in the east - and whose to say that one of them couldn't be lured to set up a base of flight ops at RIC if they're looking for a central/mid-Atlanta East Coast location? There are options - but we have to go out there, shake the trees and FIND those options -- then do everything possible to GET one (or more) of these carriers to come here - and to take a chance on setting up a base of operations here.

It's not a hopeless situation at all, particularly when a quite a few of today's budget carriers weren't even in existence 10 or 20 years ago. There's plenty of opportunity - but RIC's powers that be (and for that matter the government and business powers that be here) NEED to step up their game and chase down these opportunities.

Stop and think about something: if DCA  wasn't located on the Virginia-side bank of the Potomac but rather was located across the river, and if IAD were located however many miles north in Maryland - then RIC right now would rank #1 in the state as the Commonwealth's busiest airport! I have a hard time considering the NOVA airports as "Virginia" facilities (even though they're located in the state) - they are specifically there BECAUSE OF WASHINGTON, D.C. Absent them - then RICHMOND would have the state's busiest airport! THAT said - HOW can it be a hopeless situation that RIC should land a hub or a flight-ops base/focus city? Simple answer: IT'S NOT!! :tw_thumbsup:

Keep the faith, brother! We're NOT throwing in the towel!!

Edited by I miss RVA
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3 hours ago, I miss RVA said:

Great information! Thanks for providing some clarity on this. Also a bit surprised that Avelo chose PHF over RIC - although doesn't Avelo SPECIFICALLY target smaller airports with significantly less traffic? RIC is the third-busiest airport in the Commonwealth, behind only the two D.C. airports.

So based on your professional experiences, what do you think it would take for RIC to land a focus-city/flight-ops center for an airline the way ORF did Breeze? What constitutes the "LOT more" that goes into it? RVA is not the touristy area that Norfolk and Virginia Beach are. It's not a gateway to the Outer Banks. But it IS a potent business/corporate center, still something of a financial center (though she lost most of that punch to North Carolina decades ago), a university city. She is the center of state government, a potent (and fast-growing) manufacturing center, and is an up-and-coming center for scientific and medical research, among many other things. So what (aside from tourism and perhaps the heavy military presence and a difference in market size) swayed Breeze to base flight ops out of ORF and not RIC if the RVA market is considered such a good market for Breeze? And -- to my original question - what does she need to convince an airline to set up shop here?

These are some great questions, I'll answer them in order. 

Avelo does target smaller airports, that is correct. However, they do base their hubs in larger cities such are Orlando and Raleigh.  As for Richmond I can see a few reasons why new airlines are swaying away from creating a hub / focus city there.

1. Lots of competition , off the top of my head I can think of Southwest, Spirit, Sun Country, Jet Blue and others. All these airlines are quick to compete. They can sell tickets at lower prices and out sell a new airline like breeze, which makes creating a hub there risky. When Breeze launched out of ORF there wasn't much to compete with. No one was flying or wanted to fly the routes they picked.

2. Landing costs, Fuel costs, Usage costs, etc. I don't doubt breeze was in talks with Richmond before Norfolk. But it really could have came down to Norfolk offering a better overall deal to operate there than Virginia Beach. I did some work for an Airport in Twin Falls, Idaho when the city is paying Sky West any of the extra costs if their planes don't sell tickets. Just to keep the traffic there.   Stuff like that happens. ORF just got a new CEO and he is killing it. 

Overall, I think like Downtower said, it's in an unfortunate spot. An airline will be quick to look at RDU or DC. You're in the middle. Look at PHF, the middle guy always gets cut out. That's not to say you won't. I really do think Breeze will give you an international route in time, maybe even before ORF. We don't have the security capability right now. 

59 minutes ago, Flood Zone said:

Walmartjamesbond is an incredible user name.

Lol thanks

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28 minutes ago, walmartjamesbond said:

These are some great questions, I'll answer them in order. 

Avelo does target smaller airports, that is correct. However, they do base their hubs in larger cities such are Orlando and Raleigh.  As for Richmond I can see a few reasons why new airlines are swaying away from creating a hub / focus city there.

1. Lots of competition , off the top of my head I can think of Southwest, Spirit, Sun Country, Jet Blue and others. All these airlines are quick to compete. They can sell tickets at lower prices and out sell a new airline like breeze, which makes creating a hub there risky. When Breeze launched out of ORF there wasn't much to compete with. No one was flying or wanted to fly the routes they picked.

2. Landing costs, Fuel costs, Usage costs, etc. I don't doubt breeze was in talks with Richmond before Norfolk. But it really could have came down to Norfolk offering a better overall deal to operate there than Virginia Beach. I did some work for an Airport in Twin Falls, Idaho when the city is paying Sky West any of the extra costs if their planes don't sell tickets. Just to keep the traffic there.   Stuff like that happens. ORF just got a new CEO and he is killing it. 

Overall, I think like Downtower said, it's in an unfortunate spot. An airline will be quick to look at RDU or DC. You're in the middle. Look at PHF, the middle guy always gets cut out. That's not to say you won't. I really do think Breeze will give you an international route in time, maybe even before ORF. We don't have the security capability right now. 

Lol thanks

Thanks so much for taking the time to answer these questions. With your permission - a few follow-ups:

Regarding landing costs: that's been a HUGE problem for RIC for DECADES. I mean DECADES. As far back as I can remember from when I started flying as a young adult (and I just turned 60 this past October) - RIC was CONSTANTLY pricing itself out of the overall market and losing out to the DC airports and to some extent even to ORF. But two questions:

1.) What needs to happen for RIC to get those costs down and to be REALLY competitive with the other airports? I'm sure having a plethora of discount carries (like we currently have) has helped a lot. But I was always of the understanding that traffic volume and service frequency being SO much higher at, say, DCA, is what kept the costs lower for basically the same flight to the same destination than RIC. "If only RIC had as many flights to _____________ (pick the destination) as DCA, it wouldn't cost so much to fly out of RIC. Well - how the hell do we GET as many flights as a DCA or ORF when we can't sell tickets because they're so much higher than the other airports? WHY has that NEVER been worked out? What makes it work in other cities - is it strictly market size that drives those costs?

2.) How do these costs impact whether or not a carrier selects a specific airport as a location out of which to base flight operations? I'm not talking full-blown hub, like Delta in ATL or American at CLT - just a focus-city operation? Again, does market size impact this?

3.) RIC has a pretty robust master plan on the books that calls for a significant expansion of the physical plant -- involving both the extension of the longest runway to over 9,000 feet and building a parallel to it. The plan also calls for constructing a second terminal with a third concourse. Obviously - traffic isn't there yet to do this organically. Would having this plan in place - particularly if the CRAC were to take steps in the direction of actually putting the plan into action (if sufficient federal funding, for example, came in that made it possible to handle the runway portion) -- make any difference? In other words - even without a terminal building expansion, if RIC had parallels in place - would that help tip the scales in any way to attracting carriers here, particularly with an eye toward establishing a focus-city base?

As a layman - I may be miles off course on this - but I honestly thing that there MUST be things that the CRAC/RIC could do to overcome a location disadvantage. Okay - so we're in the middle - so what? If the airport had greater capacity - if the powers that be could work out some kinds of deals regarding costs, could that not incentivize carriers to NOT bypass Richmond in favor of other airports? I just can't accept that our location is a death knell. There HAS to be a workaround to negate that.

What's more - (and this one would likely take a few decades to resolve) - Hampton Roads does have a market-size advantage over the RVA metro - most of that came about in the 70s, 80s, and 90s when Virginia Beach boomed (and other municipalities in the Tidewater regions also grew, just not at the supercharged rate that VAB grew) - and Richmond city absolutely hemorrhaged population. Looking at trends - it's not to say that a 450K-500K gap in total population can be made up "easily" ... but TRENDS are that Virginia Beach's growth has slowed dramatically, Norfolk is losing population, Richmond city has regained about 2/3 of the population it lost and has been growing at a double-digit clip, and the RVA metro is actually growing FASTER than the Hampton Roads metro. Yes - at current growth rates, it would take a couple of decades for RVA metro to catch up/pass Tidewater. And it will be a while before anyone catches VAB (she got SUCH a big jump over a 30-plus year period) - but Richmond COULD surpass Norfolk by the end of the decade - and there are SOME studies that city planners have used that indicate that RVA city could hit 340,000 by the year 2037 if certain things break the city's way and can be sustained over the next 15 years.

How does this impact what we are discussing?

Thanks again for taking the time to provide answers and insight!

Edited by I miss RVA
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Completely out of the blue question:

Would it ever be possible in the future where the airport could have rail serve it? There is already the rail line behind RWY 34. Just a out of the blue hypothetical... just would be cool to see the airport served by rail... I can dream.
WHAT NEVERMIND!

Just took a look at the master plan and rail connection to the airport IS PLANNED! That would be a huge addition to the airport, and would make getting there a lot easier for people in the city and other areas along that rail line.

image.png.d9424ff6eff68c92c574d93354e04070.png

Edited by Niccckk
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9 hours ago, Niccckk said:

Completely out of the blue question:

Would it ever be possible in the future where the airport could have rail serve it? There is already the rail line behind RWY 34. Just a out of the blue hypothetical... just would be cool to see the airport served by rail... I can dream.
WHAT NEVERMIND!

Just took a look at the master plan and rail connection to the airport IS PLANNED! That would be a huge addition to the airport, and would make getting there a lot easier for people in the city and other areas along that rail line.

image.png.d9424ff6eff68c92c574d93354e04070.png

You already discovered the answer to your question, but unfortunately, they’re no time table. Wish they would fast-track this feature/access to the airport!

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2 hours ago, eandslee said:

You already discovered the answer to your question, but unfortunately, they’re no time table. Wish they would fast-track this feature/access to the airport!

It would be nice - but with traffic at just above 4 million passengers - RIC isn't seen (by the powers that be) as busy enough to justify investing in rail service to/from. Obviously, you know that -- like you -- I 100% disagree with that mindset. Why? Because of how many urbanologists point to cities worldwide that don't wait for demand - they "build demand" by installing the public/rapid transit first. The demand invariably comes. Like Thanos - it's inevitable.

I was watching some really good urbanology videos on YouTube recently - I'll maybe link a few in the regional transportation thread bc it just drives home this point that RVA and the powers that be in Central Virginia are looking at this COMPLETELY backwards. You don't WAIT for demand - because if you wait - the demand never comes. Instead, you proactively BUILD demand. It has a flawless, nearly 100% proven track record of success in cities across the world - even in this country up until the automobile revolution, rampant suburbanization and mass exodus from cities that began in the 1940s in the wake of World War II.  U.S. cities themselves, by and large, EXPANDED simply by building streetcar lines out into the hinterlands... development followed... LOTS of development. Richmond's developmental history proves this out, as does the developmental history of plenty of other cities (Detroit and Minneapolis are two on which I've watched videos explaining how this came to pass some 100 to 140 years ago.)

And even today - in RVA - we're seeing it at work. Look at the transformation that's already started to take place along the PULSE BRT line - and the amount of development that's currently in the pipeline and just itching to burst onto the Richmond development scene in the next few years. How telling is it about just how successful the Broad Street line has been that already - GRTC & CVTA - already have in the works an "infill station" at Malvern and Broad to accommodate the tremendous development and anticipated population density that's set to blossom in Westwood and and along the BRT corridor. 

The long and the short of it is this: the PULSE line is BUILDING DEMAND! The forthcoming new Malvern Station is all the proof we need to see that THIS WORKS!

Edited by I miss RVA
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11 hours ago, I miss RVA said:

It would be nice - but with traffic at just above 4 million passengers - RIC isn't seen (by the powers that be) as busy enough to justify investing in rail service to/from. Obviously, you know that -- like you -- I 100% disagree with that mindset. Why? Because of how many urbanologists point to cities worldwide that don't wait for demand - they "build demand" by installing the public/rapid transit first. The demand invariably comes. Like Thanos - it's inevitable.

I was watching some really good urbanology videos on YouTube recently - I'll maybe link a few in the regional transportation thread bc it just drives home this point that RVA and the powers that be in Central Virginia are looking at this COMPLETELY backwards. You don't WAIT for demand - because if you wait - the demand never comes. Instead, you proactively BUILD demand. It has a flawless, nearly 100% proven track record of success in cities across the world - even in this country up until the automobile revolution, rampant suburbanization and mass exodus from cities that began in the 1940s in the wake of World War II.  U.S. cities themselves, by and large, EXPANDED simply by building streetcar lines out into the hinterlands... development followed... LOTS of development. Richmond's developmental history proves this out, as does the developmental history of plenty of other cities (Detroit and Minneapolis are two on which I've watched videos explaining how this came to pass some 100 to 140 years ago.)

And even today - in RVA - we're seeing it at work. Look at the transformation that's already started to take place along the PULSE BRT line - and the amount of development that's currently in the pipeline and just itching to burst onto the Richmond development scene in the next few years. How telling is it about just how successful the Broad Street line has been that already - GRTC & CVTA - already have in the works an "infill station" at Malvern and Broad to accommodate the tremendous development and anticipated population density that's set to blossom in Westwood and and along the BRT corridor. 

The long and the short of it is this: the PULSE line is BUILDING DEMAND! The forthcoming new Malvern Station is all the proof we need to see that THIS WORKS!

100% agree with you. Plus eventual rail connection to the airport with amtrak could vastly increase the amount of passengers as well to the airport... people from Norfolk, if they see a lower fare here, can just take a train directly to RIC instead of driving all the way. Same with NOVA, and other areas with Amtrak service. 

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6 hours ago, Niccckk said:

100% agree with you. Plus eventual rail connection to the airport with amtrak could vastly increase the amount of passengers as well to the airport... people from Norfolk, if they see a lower fare here, can just take a train directly to RIC instead of driving all the way. Same with NOVA, and other areas with Amtrak service. 

image.png.875c77c0b33e473bbb168bd9f33a5689.png!!!  

Interestingly enough - on the topic of "build it and they will come" -- I just this morning watched a video on the "streetcar suburb" of Riverdale, Ontario - now part of the city of Toronto. It's growth was enhanced by no fewer than three streetcar lines that ran through Riverdale (one of which was converted to a subway in the 1960s).  I know it's still more expensive than BRT - but aside from simply not wanting to pony up money to build and maintain line, I have yet to understand why Richmond -- which I believe boasts having the first fully operational streetcar line in the country -- doesn't build one single tram line. Maybe down the road, as the PULSE BRT expands and becomes a "system" with multiple lines - the original Broad Street line could be converted to tram/trolley/streetcar. Particularly if we are legitimately concerned about climate change and shifting away from legacy propulsion - would it not make more sense -- rather than attempting to integrate EV buses -- (do they even exist yet in a truly economic/functional form?) -- to simply switch over to an all-electric streetcar - the kind that RVA had in 1888 and foolishly tore up in 1948?

Either way - I think there is justification for some form of rail to/from RIC. Nice to see that it's included in the RIC longer-range master plan. Whether that would have ANY impact at all on passenger traffic at the airport is another discussion. @Niccckk-- to your point, I think it could potentially have a positive effect and maybe even drive traffic -- at least incrementally. UNFORTUNATELY - any/all who have their hands on the purse strings will look at 4 million passengers annually and won't even give any kind of decent public/rapid transit connection to/from the airport so much as a second thought.

And frankly - that's sad.

 

Edited by I miss RVA
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