Richmond International Airport

[blopp1234]

40 minutes ago, I miss RVA said:

Do we have any data as to how many daily flights Southwest operated out of RIC before the pandemic and before it started scaling back service?

Not sure about before the pandemic but right now it’s 4 daily flights (2 to Atlanta, 2 to Chicago Midway). I would guess before the pandemic it was pretty similar, just with daily service to Orlando, but don’t take that as fact.

 

1 hour ago, Niccckk said:

I definitely hope we at least see the return of Tampa and Orlando, both of which Southwest had operated... Orlando use to be daily a couple years ago... hopefully after that we see the cities you mentioned, especially Dallas Love which can easily compete with Americans DFW flights.

With how much American charges on average for flights to Dallas, any budget carrier would be appreciated. Average fairs were over $300 on American during Q3 of 2022 so if Southwest comes in at 2/3 of that, it could be a real option for Richmonders trying to get to and through Dallas while avoiding DFW.

[Niccckk]

1 hour ago, I miss RVA said:

Do we have any data as to how many daily flights Southwest operated out of RIC before the pandemic and before it started scaling back service?

Not exactly (to my knowledge at least)... but we do have the enplaned passenger statistics. Southwest peaked in 2015 with 167,000 passengers enplaned. This is likely because this is when Southwest had Atlanta and most notably, daily Orlando flights. 

In 2022 we beat out our pre-pandemic (2018-2019) numbers but quite a lot.

Pre-pandemic all we really had then was Atlanta, and the seasonal Orlando and Tampa flights (although, those only operated on weekends). So I can imagine we had like 3-4 peak daily flights with Southwest pre-pandemic? Right now we have about that.. around 4-5 daily flights with Southwest.

 

Also, slightly off-topic, but I am stoked for Breeze's Phoenix inaugural flight tomorrow! Checked the seat map, and it seems almost completely full, with the next few flights to and from Phoenix also seem very packed (besides a return flight tomorrow).

Edited February 9, 2023 by Niccckk

[I miss RVA]

30 minutes ago, Niccckk said:

Not exactly (to my knowledge at least)... but we do have the enplaned passenger statistics. Southwest peaked in 2015 with 167,000 passengers enplaned. This is likely because this is when Southwest had Atlanta and most notably, daily Orlando flights. 

In 2022 we beat out our pre-pandemic (2018-2019) numbers but quite a lot.

Pre-pandemic all we really had then was Atlanta, and the seasonal Orlando and Tampa flights (although, those only operated on weekends). So I can imagine we had like 3-4 peak daily flights with Southwest pre-pandemic? Right now we have about that.. around 4-5 daily flights with Southwest.

 

Also, slightly off-topic, but I am stoked for Breeze's Phoenix inaugural flight tomorrow! Checked the seat map, and it seems almost completely full, with the next few flights to and from Phoenix also seem very packed (besides a return flight tomorrow).

Breeze has been such a big WIN for RIC. It's just amazing with all the new direct destinations.

Looking at the data - nice to see that last year Southwest actually came within 7,000 passengers of their 2015 high.

Do we have a final tally on total passenger traffic? As of last July, we were definitely on pace to top 4 million for the year and I think projections were we'd be in the 4.2 M range - just a tad lower than the 2019 peak.

Given all the new destinations - and provided nothing unforeseen happens that could hamper travel - what's the over/under on what we might reach in 2023? Is 4.5 million a safe bet?

Edited February 9, 2023 by I miss RVA

[eandslee]

The December stats are still not out, which would give the final numbers for CY 2022. Not sure what’s going on….should have been out many days ago. 

[eandslee]

I haven't posted my airport stats in quite a while, so decided that today is the day to post on what we know thus far for calendar year 2022.  Unfortunately, we are still waiting for the official statistics for the month of December 2022, but it is probably safe to say that the December passenger counts got us above 4 million  passengers for the year.  2019 was a banner year for the airport raking in a total of 4,379,663 passengers - a record for the airport.  All subsequent years will now be compared to 2019 to see how the airport has recovered from the pandemic and whether the airport will grow the annual passenger count beyond 4.3 million.  I don't believe that 2022 broke the 2019 record, but getting above 4 million passengers is a very good sign of recovery.  Granted, the airport has more airlines now compared to 2019 (can you imagine what our numbers would look like today if the pandemic wouldn't have occurred?) attracting more passengers and adding more destinations that air travelers want to see from RIC to include nonstop routes to LAS, SFO, PHX (which started yesterday), and LAX (which starts in May).  JetBlue experimented with nonstop service to LAX during the pandemic, but ended the service after flying it a few short months.  That "experiment" may have been the proof needed to gain the confidence of Breeze Airways to offer, not only nonstop service to LAX, but to other popular west coast destinations.  This Spring we will see increased frequency on Breeze to LAS and SFO.  I would imagine there will be increased frequency to PHX and LAX as demand for those routes increase.  Sun Country Airlines will begin nonstop flights to MSP (so will Delta Airlines - daily service).  Furthermore, RIC will finish construction on the International gate/customs area by mid-late summer, so I can see Breeze or some other airline(s) offering nonstop international destinations from RIC very soon.  I would expect those destinations to primarily be in the Caribbean, but I would not rule out another route or two to other international destinations.  Anyway, all that to say that the airport's future is looking brighter by the day!  Please encourage your friends and family to fly into and out of RIC as much as practically possible.  This is the only way demand will increase and more destinations offered...and increased growth at the airport.  Thank you to all of those who continue to use the airport at every opportunity.  With that, here's my latest passenger count chart.  I deleted the 2019 stats because it was getting too crowded, so instead, I started with April 2020, which was the worst month for passenger counts since the pandemic began.  Enjoy!

Edited February 11, 2023 by eandslee

[I miss RVA]

2 hours ago, eandslee said:

I haven't posted my airport stats in quite a while, so decided that today is the day to post on what we know thus far for calendar year 2022.  Unfortunately, we are still waiting for the official statistics for the month of December 2022, but it is probably safe to say that the December passenger counts got us above 4 million  passengers for the year.  2019 was a banner year for the airport raking in a total of 4,379,663 passengers - a record for the airport.  All subsequent years will now be compared to 2019 to see how the airport has recovered from the pandemic and whether the airport will grow the annual passenger count beyond 4.3 million.  I don't believe that 2022 broke the 2019 record, but getting above 4 million passengers is a very good sign of recovery.  Granted, the airport has more airlines now compared to 2019 (can you imagine what our numbers would look like today if the pandemic wouldn't have occurred?) attracting more passengers and adding more destinations that air travelers want to see from RIC to include nonstop routes to LAS, SFO, PHX (which started yesterday), and LAX (which starts in May).  JetBlue experimented with nonstop service to LAX during the pandemic, but ended the service after flying it a few short months.  That "experiment" may have been the proof needed to gain the confidence of Breeze Airways to offer, not only nonstop service to LAX, but to other popular west coast destinations.  This Spring we will see increased frequency on Breeze to LAS and SFO.  I would imagine there will be increased frequency to PHX and LAX as demand for those routes increase.  Sun Country Airlines will begin nonstop flights to MSP (so will Delta Airlines - daily service).  Furthermore, RIC will finish construction on the International gate/customs area by mid-late summer, so I can see Breeze or some other airline(s) offering nonstop international destinations from RIC very soon.  I would expect those destinations to primarily be in the Caribbean, but I would not rule out another route or two to other international destinations.  Anyway, all that to say that the airport's future is looking brighter by the day!  Please encourage your friends and family to fly into and out of RIC as much as practically possible.  This is the only way demand will increase and more destinations offered...and increased growth at the airport.  Thank you to all of those who continue to use the airport at every opportunity.  With that, here's my latest passenger count chart.  I deleted the 2019 stats because it was getting too crowded, so instead, I started with April 2020, which was the worst month for passenger counts since the pandemic began.  Enjoy!

Barring something calamitous, we should top 4 million for FY 2022. Through 11 months (if I did the math correctly) we were checking in at 3,715,259 - leaving us just 284,741 shy of 4 million - easily attainable since we seem to be "X" percentage points higher each month in 2022 vs 2021. So if we were at 325K in 2021 - it's probably safe to extrapolate (without going through all of the math to gauge the year-over-year incremental increase) an estimated December figure of around 350K. Assuming that figure, we would check in at a little under 4.1 million (4,065,259). Coming out of the pandemic, plus all of the service cutbacks that -- thankfully -- look as if they are being/will be restored this year (plus NEW service coming on line this year) - we should be able to make a serious run at the 2019 record of 4.3 million. Which leads me to believe that we could top 4.5 million in another year or two. THAT said, can we top 5 million by 2030?

[eandslee]

1 hour ago, I miss RVA said:

Which leads me to believe that we could top 4.5 million in another year or two. THAT said, can we top 5 million by 2030?

I think that’s very do-able. In fact, I think we can hit 5 million before 2030…especially if we continue to grow as we are (may need to pick up the pace a little)…a bump up or two between now and then might accelerate us further and allow us to hit that mark sooner. The airport has to be a focus on the Metro and Central Virginia though.  Marketing HAS to increase and transportation (light rail, BRT, whatever) needs to allow better traveler access as well. The airport offers MILES more than it ever has before. This is not your father’s airport…everyone in Central Virginia needs to know it!

Edited February 11, 2023 by eandslee

[I miss RVA]

48 minutes ago, eandslee said:

I think that’s very do-able. In fact, I think we can hit 5 million before 2030…especially if we continue to grow as we are (may need to pick up the pace a little)…a bump up or two between now and then might accelerate us further and allow us to hit that mark sooner. The airport has to be a focus on the Metro and Central Virginia though.  Marketing HAS to increase and transportation (light rail, BRT, whatever) needs to allow better traveler access as well. The airport offers MILES more than it ever has before. This is not your father’s airport…everyone in Central Virginia needs to know it!

!!!

I could not agree more. We need to market the living daylights out of RIC and PUSH HARD to drive up traffic. No question, the re-established direct service, new service - plus - re-establishing international service - all will play a part. Fully agreed on ground transport to-from the airport. There needs to be an emphasis on express ground service between downtown and RIC, whether it is via a BRT line or some form of rail. Obviously, we know that the airport's master plan includes a light rail station in/adjacent to the airport as part of the future/hoped-for build out. Part of the rail infrastructure is in place -- mind you costs, dealing with CSX ownership of the right of way. tracks, etc., and the kind of locomotion/rolling stock could/would be used will all play a role, if ever the powers that be go down that road. I'm curious how expensive it would be to add electrification to the route currently in place connecting an Airport Drive terminus with Main Street Station?

Lots of questions in need of lots of answers - and unfortunately, I don't really expect our local governmental agencies (or political leadership for that matter) to have but so much willingness to attempt to take this one in the next several years - at least not without citizen action/input, be it at the grass roots level or via civic leaders/associations. It will take a lot of energy to dislodge this from the divot of inertia in which it currently rests. Once the ball is moving and starts rolling, then we'll see things happen. But that initial push will need to be epic to pull it off.

[eandslee]

Just for fun, I drew (in yellow) the path which would likely be used if there were light/heavy rail established between Main Street Station and the airport (sorry, my hand isn't so steady when free-drawing using a touchpad).  This is the current rail line that the railroad (CSX?) uses and usually local rail lines use the same path or right-of-way; usually built along side the main rail lines on an individual rail line so that it is not subject to freight and Amtrack traffic.  The downside to this is that it would be VERY expensive to build and to operate.  In fact, unless there are some major grants that would pay for this, I can't see this happening in the next, say, 50 years or so.  The other point of concern is that between Rocketts Landing and the airport, there is absolutely nothing (no dense housing...just trees and some industrial buildings).  So, that means there would likely be no stops in that section of the trip.  I would imagine that potential stops would help justify the new line, but without stops it would probably be a non-starter.  These are my thoughts.  Anyone else agree?  Disagree?

[I miss RVA]

1 hour ago, eandslee said:

Just for fun, I drew (in yellow) the path which would likely be used if there were light/heavy rail established between Main Street Station and the airport (sorry, my hand isn't so steady when free-drawing using a touchpad).  This is the current rail line that the railroad (CSX?) uses and usually local rail lines use the same path or right-of-way; usually built along side the main rail lines on an individual rail line so that it is not subject to freight and Amtrack traffic.  The downside to this is that it would be VERY expensive to build and to operate.  In fact, unless there are some major grants that would pay for this, I can't see this happening in the next, say, 50 years or so.  The other point of concern is that between Rocketts Landing and the airport, there is absolutely nothing (no dense housing...just trees and some industrial buildings).  So, that means there would likely be no stops in that section of the trip.  I would imagine that potential stops would help justify the new line, but without stops it would probably be a non-starter.  These are my thoughts.  Anyone else agree?  Disagree?

Just to refresh the memory banks - here's where we were on on the subject a couple of months ago - start with @blopp1234's post (this link will take you right to it) where he mentions regional rail and the airport and just keep reading forward. There was some pretty good discussion on it. Personally, I think it (the rail linkup) could work - but it will be expensive as all get out and like you said -would we even see it anytime in our lifetimes?

https://www.urbanplanet.org/forums/topic/10247-richmond-region-transportation/?do=findComment&comment=1844062

Much as I want a rail link-up - I think the powers that be most likely would go with either a standard express bus - or - a very best - extending the Broad Street BRT line (which brings the whole other problem of lack space at pinch points for dedicated BRT lanes). I honestly want a LOT more than just the old "Nine Mile Express" kind of thing -- only it being RIC specific. Although, getting from the terminal building to I-64 wouldn't be THAT painful - the bus would bog down in rush hour (without dedicated right of way, like a BRT), the I-64 path is WAY out of the way - and - it takes Main Street Station completely out of the mix unless the bus were to meander about to get on I-95 and then exit close to MSS - all of which, again, falls apart during rush hour traffic.

 

Edited February 11, 2023 by I miss RVA

[wrldcoupe4]

Biggest problem is that it’s so easy to get to  and from the airport by car (or Uber/Lyft) and Main Street Station is the terminus for a sliver of the airport traffic. It would seem like a vanity project. Would love to see it make sense though. 

[I miss RVA]

14 minutes ago, wrldcoupe4 said:

Main Street Station is the terminus for a sliver of the airport traffic.

You mean as a modal-transfer point (folks taking flying in and taking a train elsewhere - or vice versa -- OR -- do you mean as a pick-up/drop off point for an establish livery service?

[blopp1234]

And just like that 2 new Breeze destinations!!!!!

 

Cincinnati and Long Island/Islip!

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/breeze-announces-22-routes-20-090000123.html

 

Glad to see us getting more midsized cities added to the network. This takes us to 12 nonstop routes from Breeze.

 

Cincinnati is a solid add that seems like it could do pretty well at 2-4x per week frequencies to start with. This one was pretty predictable as demand has been solid between RIC and CVG and service was there until 2015 with Delta.

 

Long Island however is one that I didn’t see coming as that airport has very limited service, primarily to Florida, Savannah, Myrtle and Charleston with a few exceptions (Nashville, RDU, ORF, BWI). This bodes well for RIC if Breeze can make this work as I would think this could eventually become a feeder route for RICs network if Breeze offers connections in the future.

Edited February 14, 2023 by blopp1234

[Niccckk]

4 hours ago, blopp1234 said:

well for RIC if Breeze can make this work as I would think this could eventually become a feeder route for RICs network if Breeze offers connections in the future

Breeze actually offers a lot of BreezeThru routes through us already. For example, the new Phoenix route starts in BDL, connects in RIC, then goes off to Phoenix. Similarly, there is SFO-RIC-TPA. We're slowly becoming a connection hub with breeze.

 

 

Also you mentioned Delta operated CVG back in 2015... Do you think we can see Delta compete again with breeze on this and introduce a competing route like they did with sun country?

[eandslee]

This is awesome news!!  Breeze just keeps growing at RIC!  I can tell you that they are seeing pretty good passenger loads in and out of RIC.  In fact, I saw a stat on one of the civilian aviation boards recently, that out of all of Breeze’s secondary destinations (destinations that are not focus/base cities already), RIC is number one for passenger traffic!  Keep it up Central Virginia!!!  I think RIC is also one of Breeze’s few destinations that has nonstop service on Breeze to SFO, LAS, PHX, and very soon LAX!  That’s huge!! I think CHS and TPA also share those destinations.  I love that Breeze is all-in for RIC!!

Edit:  these new routes look to be only seasonal for now 18 May - 5 Sep.  That’s the first step to a permanent route.  Also, looks like ORF gained several new routes as well.

Didn't know that Delta ever had CVG as a nonstop destination from RIC.  Please do tell if you have any information on that…I just don’t remember it at all.

Another edit:  someone needs to post this announcement on Reddit. I don’t have time until this evening, but if someone can do it this afternoon, that would be great. Just spreading the word!

Edited February 14, 2023 by eandslee

[blopp1234]

1 hour ago, Niccckk said:

Also you mentioned Delta operated CVG back in 2015... Do you think we can see Delta compete again with breeze on this and introduce a competing route like they did with sun country?

I would highly doubt Delta would ever re add this route. The only reason it existed in the first place was when CVG was a Delta hub. The route carried on 3 years after CVG was dehubbed but CVG has since lost its status as a focus city for Delta so I doubt we see anyone other than Allegiant compete with Breeze.

[I miss RVA]

6 hours ago, blopp1234 said:

And just like that 2 new Breeze destinations!!!!!

 

Cincinnati and Long Island/Islip!

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/breeze-announces-22-routes-20-090000123.html

 

Glad to see us getting more midsized cities added to the network. This takes us to 12 nonstop routes from Breeze.

 

Cincinnati is a solid add that seems like it could do pretty well at 2-4x per week frequencies to start with. This one was pretty predictable as demand has been solid between RIC and CVG and service was there until 2015 with Delta.

 

Long Island however is one that I didn’t see coming as that airport has very limited service, primarily to Florida, Savannah, Myrtle and Charleston with a few exceptions (Nashville, RDU, ORF, BWI). This bodes well for RIC if Breeze can make this work as I would think this could eventually become a feeder route for RICs network if Breeze offers connections in the future.

WOW - this is HUGE! So we RIC already had the most direct destinations for a non-focus-city airport in Breeze's system - and boosting that to 12 just solidifies that all the more. If we maintain this amazing rate of growth, what's the over/under on RIC catching up with focus-city airports in terms of destinations and flights in the next year or two?

[wrldcoupe4]

Is there precedent for two focus cities to be so close to one another for the same airline (Richmond and Norfolk)?

[I miss RVA]

34 minutes ago, wrldcoupe4 said:

Is there precedent for two focus cities to be so close to one another for the same airline (Richmond and Norfolk)?

Not that I'm aware of.

I noticed in the news release that ORF picked up four destinations - so they're still probably "ahead by a nose" (to borrow a phrase...) But WOW - RIC is making some big strides when it comes to Breeze. It seems to speak volumes for RIC's tremendous potential and to the fact that Breeze appears to be recognizing that potential and taking steps to actualize that potential. Breeze is starting to see/understand that -- despite its proximity to ORF -- RIC is a powerhouse in the making, and it has plenty of capacity for additional service, AND - perhaps they're reading the same tea leaves we've been seeing, talking about how CENTRAL VIRGINIA has become THE population growth engine of the Commonwealth. 

Edited February 14, 2023 by I miss RVA

[blopp1234]

39 minutes ago, wrldcoupe4 said:

Is there precedent for two focus cities to be so close to one another for the same airline (Richmond and Norfolk)?

A few come to mind but they are larger than Richmond and Norfolk mostly.

 

DC and Philly for American

Philly and NYC for American. 
Los Angeles and San Diego for Alaska

Portland and Seattle for Alaska

Fort Lauderdale and Miami for Frontier

Sarasota, Punta Gorda and St Pete for Allegiant

Cincinnati and Indianapolis for Allegiant

Grand Rapids and Flint for Allegiant

Asheville and Knoxville for Allegiant

Providence and Hartford for Breeze

All are less than 200 miles from the other, similarly to RIC and ORF. The only ones I would feel comfortable comparing our situation to would be the Allegiant focus cities as most of the rest are much larger cities or full service airlines. I think it possible, especially if you look at Hartford and Providence which Breeze already has focus cities in, but I wouldn’t say it’s likely to happen.

 

[I miss RVA]

49 minutes ago, blopp1234 said:

A few come to mind but they are larger than Richmond and Norfolk mostly.

 

DC and Philly for American

Philly and NYC for American. 
Los Angeles and San Diego for Alaska

Portland and Seattle for Alaska

Fort Lauderdale and Miami for Frontier

Sarasota, Punta Gorda and St Pete for Allegiant

Cincinnati and Indianapolis for Allegiant

Grand Rapids and Flint for Allegiant

Asheville and Knoxville for Allegiant

Providence and Hartford for Breeze

All are less than 200 miles from the other, similarly to RIC and ORF. The only ones I would feel comfortable comparing our situation to would be the Allegiant focus cities as most of the rest are much larger cities or full service airlines. I think it possible, especially if you look at Hartford and Providence which Breeze already has focus cities in, but I wouldn’t say it’s likely to happen.

 

Breeze has focus cities in both Providence AND Hartford?  Wow - yeah, those are pretty close - though Richmond and Norfolk might be a tad closer, no?

When I think of Fort Lauderdale and Miami - they're almost in the same metropolitan area - literally right up I-95 from each other. 

So I wonder now what we have to do to snag Frontier and Alaska airlines to come plant a flag at RIC? Perhaps success with Breeze's western routes would put us on their radars to pick up some connections from RIC that Breeze doesn't serve.

[blopp1234]

Both are around 75 miles as the bird flies.

 

Alaska will likely only enter for flights to Seattle so we would need demand to increase for that route to start.

 

Im honestly surprised Frontier hasn’t already entered the market as they are mid sized markets in the northeast and Midwest and have started working their way towards RDU. Could be for the same reasons as to why JetBlue serves RIC and not ORF. Who knows, maybe someone in the industry could add insight.

Edited February 14, 2023 by blopp1234

[Niccckk]

Breeze's growth is amazing out of RIC. 
I'm all in for more routes 100%, but I think the next step with Breeze out of Richmond (and their other routes as well) is to focus on increasing frequencies on routes.  We're actually already seeing this with SFO, LAS, and TPA. I think SFO is going to 3-4x weekly over the summer and LAS is going to 4x over the summer as well. TPA is daily at this point. It would be amazing to see 4-5x per week frequencies on all routes but that might be a stretch haha. I think this can only happen if Breeze decides to have a base here at RIC.

 

ALSO, I don't know if I am missing anything, but I am really surprised we haven't see the Big 4 come in with their own routes to compete with Breezes. Perhaps because they have the hub model, but still... Seeing American / Southwest compete with Phoenix, United competing with SFO, etc etc would be amazing for those routes.

Last little question; Do you think after the new international customs facility is built, we'll see the likes of Air Canada come back to RIC and serve routes in Canada? They served Montreal & Toronto I believe before out of here.

[I miss RVA]

50 minutes ago, Niccckk said:

Breeze's growth is amazing out of RIC. 
I'm all in for more routes 100%, but I think the next step with Breeze out of Richmond (and their other routes as well) is to focus on increasing frequencies on routes.  We're actually already seeing this with SFO, LAS, and TPA. I think SFO is going to 3-4x weekly over the summer and LAS is going to 4x over the summer as well. TPA is daily at this point. It would be amazing to see 4-5x per week frequencies on all routes but that might be a stretch haha. I think this can only happen if Breeze decides to have a base here at RIC.

 

ALSO, I don't know if I am missing anything, but I am really surprised we haven't see the Big 4 come in with their own routes to compete with Breezes. Perhaps because they have the hub model, but still... Seeing American / Southwest compete with Phoenix, United competing with SFO, etc etc would be amazing for those routes.

Last little question; Do you think after the new international customs facility is built, we'll see the likes of Air Canada come back to RIC and serve routes in Canada? They served Montreal & Toronto I believe before out of here.

Agreed on frequency. Even on routes that eventually become daily - is it unrealistic we could ever get to the point that we could get beyond one flight per day per destination on some of these routes? It would be really nice to see 2 or 3 x daily on higher-volume routes - something like a morning, midday and evening departure/arrival (with departures/arrivals staggered, obviously). Is that level of service still considered "cost prohibitive" relative to demand at middle-tier airports like RIC?

Getting Air Canada back on the roster would be a REAL boost, particularly if we can get direct service to Montreal and Toronto. Much as I'd be exciting about RIC landing the vacation hotspots, I'd be even MORE excited about us landing YUL and YYZ as destinations. Question: would this service likely be stair-stepped (a la the West Coast service? - meaning 2 or 3 x weekly to start?)

Edited February 14, 2023 by I miss RVA

[walmartjamesbond]

55 minutes ago, Niccckk said:

ALSO, I don't know if I am missing anything, but I am really surprised we haven't see the Big 4 come in with their own routes to compete with Breezes. Perhaps because they have the hub model, but still... Seeing American / Southwest compete with Phoenix, United competing with SFO, etc etc would be amazing for those routes.

That's a good point. Breeze built and studied its operation to avoid exactly that. They know the routes they are offer are only going to be for leisure travelers for the most part.  The big 4 like to offer routes where they can get both leisure and business unless its to a major tourist destination. This is why you see little if any competition, it's just not worth it for the big guys. It's almost a different game entirely. Avelo has tried to compete with Breeze but it has been very hard. They opened PHF but I would be very surprised if it lasts past the summer. The amount of traffic that PHF could attract is almost slim to none. The population is either in RVA or VB/Norfolk. None of either want to drive 50 min for $20 less on Avelo. 

I'm really impressed with how Breeze is using RIC. I've said it before but I don't foresee a hub there. BUT, I think it is showing other airlines what potential is available to be had. 

I have friends at Breeze still. I know this year is going to be a big year for out west and even down in South America. I am almost sure ORF and RIC will get a route to Provo, Utah at some point in 2023. It seems to be the trend where RIC gets the same new rotes the focus cities get.