Richmond International Airport

[I miss RVA]

6 hours ago, Oaktowntwinz said:

Hello everyone,

I'm a lurker who has always been impressed by the dedication of posters to this site and the city.  For what its worth, I used to post occasionally but somehow got "kicked off" so I didn't bother attempting to register again.  The reason I'm posting now is that, after reading eandslee's last post, I thought he was correct in his assessment of the defeatist attitude of some in Richmond. I worked for a number of airlines which helped me have some understanding of the dynamics involved in that industry.  I think you guys need to let the idea of Richmond becoming a hub dissipate.  The list of former hubs is proof that hubs are dinosaurs.  Cincinnati, Memphis, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Dayton never recovered from losing hub status.  This is why Breeze took advantage of the situation and established point to point travel, which eliminated the need to change planes which is why hubs were created in the first place. As a result, Richmond is seeing air service that people said would "never happen".  In the meantime, Breeze quickly changed plans and eliminated service to cities such as San Antonio and Oklahoma City when the numbers weren't conducive to their business model.  They were able to do this quickly because they weren't dependent on a hub. 

BTW,  I don't live in Richmond.  I've traveled on Breeze nonstop between San Francisco and Richmond.  I've taken this trip several times and plan to continue.  Nonstop makes a huge difference.  Also, the airport in Richmond is beautiful. I think its comparable to San Jose or Oakland.  The number of flights available is really not up to airport management or city hall.  They can lobby airlines for new service but they can't mandate it. Hope this helps. Thanks again for all of your efforts and I apologize for the lengthy post.

Welcome back, @Oaktowntwinz!! Glad you've decided to jump back into the fray. PLEASE weigh in regularly - your expertise, experience and insights are SUPER helpful to laymen like myself who know virtually nothing about the industry except how to book a ticket on the internet and how to find my seat once onboard the aircraft.

Wow - you bring up a HUGE point - the de-hubbing of many former hub airports - and it's been happening quite a bit recently, as your list of cities proves. Recall, point--to-point service was the STANDARD prior to de-regulation in the late '70s - the whole hub-and-spoke model came only after the federal government took the "shackles" (so to speak) off the industry. If this is the wave of the future, then hopefully Richmond can be at the FRONT of the curve for a change. 

Okay - based on your experience - let me ask for your professional opinion: so letting go of RIC becoming a hub certainly is reasonable. What about a focus city? Do you see potential for RIC to snag a focus city/flight ops base from any of the airlines? Or are we - again - too late to the poker table and all the cards seem to have been dealt already? Or do you see the RVA market (and RIC as an airport) starting to emerge as a hot, "go-to" place that airlines are starting to seriously consider? Particularly given what Breeze is doing - and they really do seem to be HEAVILY invested in flying out of Richmond - is RVA starting to grab attention as a legit destination worthy of being connected more broadly with other markets in terms of direct service in your opinion?

[Niccckk]

3 hours ago, blopp1234 said:

More proof RIC has been a huge money maker for Breeze. All of our routes have over 70% load factor, which would be considered profitable even for a full service airline like American , Delta, United or Southwest. 
 

I don’t see Breeze rolling over and letting spirit beat them on this route. This route has done well for them so I would assume they lower prices or increase frequency to match Spirit on this route (which is very good for RIC). Should be interesting to see how that route pans out for both but hopefully, there are enough passengers to where both airlines are able to do well and stay on the route. Many cities have multiple airlines serving Las Vegas so I’d assume both will have success, but Breeze will need to get their On time performance fixed as they’ll be in trouble otherwise.

I 100% see Breeze matching Spirit with daily frequencies to Las Vegas. It's going to be great to have some competition on that route.

[Niccckk]

4 hours ago, eandslee said:

Okay folks, if you're into digging in the actual flight data, etc. for Breeze for the month of November 2022, here it is.  Remember, based on the total passenger counts for the airport last year (you can see it clear on my line graph above), November and December showed pretty low passenger counts for RIC (oddly enough, given the holidays).  So, take that into consideration when checking out the link below.  Also, I've taken some of the summary of data from the guy who originally posted this so that you get an understanding of data.  I'm not going to draw any conclusions just yet (though he did rank RIC #5 of all Breeze stations)...just wanted to get this out there for you to look at (sorry about the blue background...don't know how to get rid of it):

Source data is the DOT published data through November 22

Click this link for the overall data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ue&sd=true

Summary of data:

First few tabs are summary of the entire performance across all stations, then it works through 4 Tiers based on the number of routes logged on their website route map, I took a snapshot a few weeks ago, so might have missed one or two here or there, I remove any extraneous data like diverts or obvious charters, and that's how I show the data.

I’ve taken a look at the forward route network and have moved a few stations around accordingly this month. This might leave some things in strange places like HPN, that on pax counts probably should be in tier 1, but forward network says Tier 2.

Tier 1: CHS, ORF, BDL, MSY, LAS, TPA, (RIC and PVD From Tier 2)
Tier 2: HPN, JAX, CMH, CAK, (MCO From Tier 4), (SFO, PVU From Tier 3)
Tier 3: PBI, SDF, PIT, (LAX, PHX New Stations), (HSV, XNA, SBD, ISP From Tier 4)
Tier 4: TUL, (SAV, BNA From Tier 3), SYR, SRQ, OKC, RSW and SAT (noting that OKC and SAT are for historic purposes only at this point)
 

Data Sets:
Current Month – November 22
Prior Month – October 22
Q4 22
YTD
2021
November 21 vs November 22
You will see info on flights, seats, passengers, capacity %, miles, average stage lengths, air time, etc. I've used about every metric they have in the specific file.

So I hope you find this useful.

Key Data from the report:

October:
1,409 flights recorded, 170,566 seats and 126,848 passengers (74.4%), against 1,359 flights recorded, 161,666 seats and 121,547 passengers (75,2%) in October, Average Pax on flights increased by 1 from 89 to 90

Reconciliation:
1,359 flights in September, (0) – for terminated routes, 1 extra for resumed routes, (87) reduction for general operations and 136 from brand new routes = 1,409 flights in October
Seats were up 5,5% overall, Pax up 4.4% Month to Month
YTD
11,323 flights, 1,347,350 seats and 906,530 passengers (67.3%), 1m for 2022 is almost certain at this point

A223 ops ticked up slightly to 46.4% from 44.4% with 654 flights in November vs 603 in October

New Routes:
Top:
LAX-CHS – 82.6%
LAX-HPN – 82.5%

Bottom:
TPA-SYR – 64.1%
HPN-SRQ – 64.1%

Although LAS-TPA was 33.8%, only 2 flights at that point.

Highest number of passengers:
CHS – 42,488 - 336K YTD (both directions combined)
TPA – 17,931 – 205K YTD
HPN – 16,178 – 34K YTD
BDL – 16,050 – 124K YTD
LAS – 14,948 – 52K YTD


Station Rankings:
1. PIT – Tier 3 – 86.6% (44 flights)
2. PVD – Tier 1 – 83.8% (90 flights)
3. XNA – Tier 3 – 82.1% (34 Flights)
4. LAX – Tier 3 – 81.9% (67 flights)
5. RIC – Tier 1 – 78.7% (139 flights)

30. TUL – Tier 4 – 54.4% (16 flights)
29. BNA – Tier 4 – 62.4% (63 flights)
28. SAV – Tier 4 – 64.8% (40 flights)
27. HPN – Tier 2 – 65.4% (205 flights)
26. MCO – Tier 2 – 67.3% (32 flights)
 

Also forgot to say, that it is AMAZING that our passenger capacity numbers are better than most of their focus cities / bases! That just proves how well they do out of here. As well that all of our routes are above 70% like you said before, is AMAZING!!!

Also can we mention how well RIC-SFO does? Just wow. 85%!!!

Edited February 18, 2023 by Niccckk

[Oaktowntwinz]

Thanks for the welcome @Imissrva. While I have airline experience, I am definitely not an expert on the industry.  However, it seems to me that Richmond is a focus city for Breeze regardless of whether they identify it like that publicly.  I think you bring up a good point about Richmond being ahead of the curve.  Southwest has been a disappointment because it has been trying to repair a broken system at Richmond's expense.  Breeze saw the opportunity and stepped in.  Southwest cannot compete because of its internal issues. In a sense, Breeze offers a new model that Richmond is a big part of.  As a result, other carriers are responding by offering new service.  This is exciting for Richmond.  You guys always saw the potential; now other carriers are seeing it too.

[I miss RVA]

1 hour ago, Oaktowntwinz said:

However, it seems to me that Richmond is a focus city for Breeze regardless of whether they identify it like that publicly. 

I think you bring up a good point about Richmond being ahead of the curve.  Southwest has been a disappointment because it has been trying to repair a broken system at Richmond's expense.  Breeze saw the opportunity and stepped in. 

Southwest cannot compete because of its internal issues. In a sense, Breeze offers a new model that Richmond is a big part of. 

As a result, other carriers are responding by offering new service. 

This is exciting for Richmond.  You guys always saw the potential; now other carriers are seeing it too.

Thanks so much @Oaktowntwinz! Really appreciate your insights and expertise. 

A few thoughts:

1.) RVA as a de facto a focus city: WOW! That's REALLY exciting. So in other words, we are functioning much the same way RDU is serving as a mini "hub" (in other words - focus city) for Frontier, at least from a flights/destinations standpoint (not a flight ops/base standpoint).

2.) RIC/RVA ahead of the curve - that's a first for these parts. Sadly so many folks here spend SO much time looking BACK at (and holding onto) the PAST that we more often than not end up sacrificing the FUTURE upon the altar of history. I'm thrilled that Breeze has been able to see the potential and is investing heavily in actualizing it.

3a.) Southwest: Wow... it's a real shame because their reach is REALLY deep. Makes me wonder how much of a major player they'll be in RIC's future in the coming years.

3b.) Richmond a big part of Breeze's plan: WOW - is' super exciting because it honestly is a new - almost unchartered experience for many of us. I cannot EVER remember Richmond (be it the city/metro/region - or in this case the airport) EVER being a big part of something up and coming. I'm SO grateful Breeze seems to have really glommed onto the asset they have in RIC and the Richmond market. (Mind you - looking at the raw data, we seem to be doing our part, too - I mean, just NAILING it in terms of percent of flight capacity. We can't rest on our laurels tho - we need to keep up the pressure by making sure Breeze planes are PACKED with passengers!)

4.) Other carriers: This is part of what will be intriguing - seeing how other carriers respond. Spirit offering the new LAS route - wow. Delta to MSP. I wonder how many of the legacy carriers will start to see the asset that RIC can be for them as well, even as they are locked in with almost a death grip to the old hub & spoke model?

5.) It really IS SUPER exciting for RVA! Wow - if this continues and (hopefully) increases, maybe the airport powers-that-be will have to dust off those expansion plans in the (relatively new) airport master plan after all! 

[Oaktowntwinz]

The enthusiasm of you guys is amazing and contagious.  I totally agree that Richmond has often been overlooked by the legacy airlines.  However, they are governed by money and the expansion of Breeze in Richmond has been noticed.  Keep in mind that Breeze's founder was also the founder of JetBlue and Azul in Brazil.  People listen to him because his track record speaks for itself. He actually knows RVA because of JetBlue.  JetBlue has been successful in Richmond even when it didn't work in Atlanta or Nashville.  The Southwest effect didn't happen in Richmond which was disappointing but it wasn't the city's fault.  Ironically, Breeze has created the Breeze effect and Richmond is being studied. Legacy carriers want some of the market share.  It looks like they have, historically, underestimated Richmond. Now they are faced with the dilemma of losing passengers to Breeze. It will be interesting to see how they respond.

 

[I miss RVA]

2 hours ago, Oaktowntwinz said:

The enthusiasm of you guys is amazing and contagious.  I totally agree that Richmond has often been overlooked by the legacy airlines.  However, they are governed by money and the expansion of Breeze in Richmond has been noticed.  Keep in mind that Breeze's founder was also the founder of JetBlue and Azul in Brazil.  People listen to him because his track record speaks for itself. He actually knows RVA because of JetBlue.  JetBlue has been successful in Richmond even when it didn't work in Atlanta or Nashville.  The Southwest effect didn't happen in Richmond which was disappointing but it wasn't the city's fault.  Ironically, Breeze has created the Breeze effect and Richmond is being studied. Legacy carriers want some of the market share.  It looks like they have, historically, underestimated Richmond. Now they are faced with the dilemma of losing passengers to Breeze. It will be interesting to see how they respond.

 

Curious to know why the legacy airlines have chosen to look past Richmond for SO long. Proximity to D.C.? (I honestly don't buy into the proximity to Norfolk.) Sluggish market size growth for DECADES compared to other originally smaller markets -- particularly in the South -- that no question swallowed an entire bottle of Urban Miracle Grow and are now have in many cases become legitimately major markets? RVA not viewed as a "serious" destination whereas other growing markets -- for whatever reason - WERE viewed as "legit"? Economics/costs? (And I've NEVER completely understood why RIC was ALWAYS SO MUCH HIGHER than other Virginia airports)...

I love the idea of Richmond being perhaps one of the spearheads of "The Breeze Effect". Curious to understand HOW and WHY the Southwest Effect never took root here. You mentioned - it wasn't the city's fault. Seems like the problem rests with Southwest. 

When you say Richmond is being studied - can you elaborate?

Interesting that the legacy carriers will be scrambling to play "Freddie Catch Up" with Breeze with what they're doing here. I'd be curious to know if the fact (and it's obviously been published and is readily available for anyone interested in understanding market dynamics) that metro Richmond/Central Virginia has become THE RED-HOT population growth center in the Commonwealth, at least in the first couple of years of this decade. It begs the question - is Richmond poised to emerge -- or is it emerging -- as one of those next "it" markets?

[blopp1234]

I think part of it historically has to do with Richmond not putting on alot of population until the last 15 or so years.
 

But as of recently, I think Covid didn’t help, but it might also be established airlines not wanting to take chances on routes that hadn’t been flown before. Examples include Phoenix, San Francisco and Las Vegas. All of which had solid PAX numbers but not enough to where a legacy carrier would feel comfortable going in and taking a chance on the route, as longer routes that don’t have hundreds of passengers each way each day can be risky as it takes up more time that a plane could be used flying other routes. For example, a round trip from Richmond to Los Angeles would take around 5-6 hours each way. Add in an hour on the ground between the arriving and returning flight and you’ve used an aircraft’s entire day of flying on one route. Most airlines would rather us that plane twice on a shorter route, say between Richmond and Dallas, which would be able to transport twice the amount of passengers. 
 

I think this could change as American in particular has alot of excess aircraft at the moment and is looking to add more point to point routes. That plus an Airline such as United, which has a San Francisco hub, might see how well Breeze is doing and think they could fill a daily 737 by offering connections to other west coast cities from SFO that currently would take 2 layovers to access. 
 

Again, the future looks very bright for RIC, and while I would love to see RIC become a focus city, but I’ve learned not to get my hopes up (thanks to the Washington commanders/football team/redskins for teaching me not too!) as it’s very easy to have them let down. With that being said, RIC has been blowing me away with its growth recently and I don’t think it will be long before we far surpass airports like Louisville, Memphis, Milwaukee and Buffalo and start putting up passenger numbers similar to a Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland, Sacramento or Jacksonville. I absolutely would agree Breeze has taken the first step at RIC on new routes that other airlines were interested in but were scared to try as they hadn’t been tested before. Props to Breeze and I hope they have continued success at RIC and I look forward to flying to Cincinnati with them in May!

 

Edited February 19, 2023 by blopp1234

[I miss RVA]

1 hour ago, blopp1234 said:

I think part of it historically has to do with Richmond not putting on alot of population until the last 15 or so years.

Established airlines not wanting to take chances on routes that hadn’t been flown before. Examples include Phoenix, San Francisco and Las Vegas. All of which had solid PAX numbers but not enough to where a legacy carrier would feel comfortable going in and taking a chance on the route, as longer routes that don’t have hundreds of passengers each way each day can be risky as it takes up more time that a plane could be used flying other routes.

For example, a round trip from Richmond to Los Angeles would take around 5-6 hours each way. Add in an hour on the ground between the arriving and returning flight and you’ve used an aircraft’s entire day of flying on one route. Most airlines would rather us that plane twice on a shorter route, say between Richmond and Dallas, which would be able to transport twice the amount of passengers. 

I think this could change as American in particular has alot of excess aircraft at the moment and is looking to add more point to point routes. That plus an Airline such as United, which has a San Francisco hub, might see how well Breeze is doing and think they could fill a daily 737 by offering connections to other west coast cities from SFO that currently would take 2 layovers to access. 

Again, the future looks very bright for RIC, and while I would love to see RIC become a focus city, but I’ve learned not to get my hopes up (thanks to the Washington commanders/football team/redskins for teaching me not too!) as it’s very easy to have them let down.

With that being said, RIC has been blowing me away with its growth recently and I don’t think it will be long before we far surpass airports like Louisville, Memphis, Milwaukee and Buffalo and start putting up passenger numbers similar to a Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland, Sacramento or Jacksonville.

I absolutely would agree Breeze has taken the first step at RIC on new routes that other airlines were interested in but were scared to try as they hadn’t been tested before. Props to Breeze and I hope they have continued success at RIC and I look forward to flying to Cincinnati with them in May!

 

Really good analysis, @blopp1234! 

As usual - a few thoughts:

1.) I'm thinking you've hit the nail on this one - (and yet another reason why I jump up and down and rant like a madman on my soapbox about RVA -- NEEDING -- stratosphereic population growth. Incremental, snails pace growth is simply for the birds. Oh, it may be nice in the eyes of some to keep this place small - but look at EVERYTHING ELSE WE LOSE OUT ON!!! THIS being a CLASSIC example. I think you're hit a grand slam homer on this one - legacy airlines wouldn't even look at us because, for years, while other markets were BOOMING, we remained TOO DAMN SMALL.

Thank GOD that's finally changing!!

2 & 3.) Dovetails with the first point - and your analysis makes perfect sense. I can totally see why the legacy carriers would feel that way, looking at the brass-tacks economics of it, as you've laid out.

4.) Would that be something!! MORE flights from American and United. Who would have thought this even as we were setting local records pre-pandemic?

5.) Bright future for RIC - certainly does seem to be that way. And as @Oaktowntwinzpointed out, Breeze appears to be USING RIC as something akin to a "focus city" or "mini-hub" without actually establishing flight ops here and not giving us the title. So in a way, we very well could look at RIC as already starting to become a "de-facto" focus city airport - the same way Frontier is using RDU as a mini-hub without establishing flight ops there or giving them a title.

5a.) Don't get me started on the beloved Redballteammanderskins.    It pains me to no end that they're now on their 11th head coach and THIRD NICKNAME since they last won the Super Bowl 30 years ago. I'm hoping and praying I'll see the Burgundy and... Gold? Black? Ugh... whatever.. raise Mr. Lombardi's hardware at least one more time before I depart this planet.

6.) From your keyboard to God's eyes, my friend! 

7.) AMEN!!! Hats off to Breeze for really taking a chance on our fair city and our fair airport. Breeze is becoming the Little Engine that not only Could but Did - and IS DOING!! May they have GREAT success with Richmond at the forefront, and may they continue growing their presence at RIC in a BIG BIG BIG WAY!

Edited February 19, 2023 by I miss RVA

[Niccckk]

Hate to break your hearts to any Avelo fans, but CHO is getting a new airline and nonstop destination and I can't help but think it is Avelo that is filling in that slot... they're probably trying to find a better small VA airport since Newport News isn't doing very well for them... ONLY speculation though.

https://www.cbs19news.com/story/48404567/cho-to-announce-new-airline-service

[eandslee]

43 minutes ago, Niccckk said:

Hate to break your hearts to any Avelo fans, but CHO is getting a new airline and nonstop destination and I can't help but think it is Avelo that is filling in that slot... they're probably trying to find a better small VA airport since Newport News isn't doing very well for them... ONLY speculation though.

https://www.cbs19news.com/story/48404567/cho-to-announce-new-airline-service

That’s a really good guess.  Doesn’t matter though - I think that Breeze is all in on RIC. I’d rather have that.  

[Niccckk]

1 hour ago, eandslee said:

That’s a really good guess.  Doesn’t matter though - I think that Breeze is all in on RIC. I’d rather have that.  

100% agree. AGAIN, I'm not against Avelo but I don't think they're a good fit here. Breeze is much better.

[I miss RVA]

5 hours ago, Niccckk said:

100% agree. AGAIN, I'm not against Avelo but I don't think they're a good fit here. Breeze is much better.

Breeze is knocking it out of the park. And IF there was a chance to land a carrier (down the road) like, say, a Frontier, for example - if I had to choose between Avelo and a Frontier - well... not a stretch to figure out the choice.

[Niccckk]

On 2/19/2023 at 8:10 AM, Niccckk said:

Hate to break your hearts to any Avelo fans, but CHO is getting a new airline and nonstop destination and I can't help but think it is Avelo that is filling in that slot... they're probably trying to find a better small VA airport since Newport News isn't doing very well for them... ONLY speculation though.

https://www.cbs19news.com/story/48404567/cho-to-announce-new-airline-service

I ABSOLUTELY PREDICTED THIS!

[eandslee]

13 minutes ago, Niccckk said:

I ABSOLUTELY PREDICTED THIS!

Sure did!  Awesome prediction!
 

Hopefully, Spirit will make its announcement tomorrow for the RIC-LAS route. 

[I miss RVA]

2 hours ago, eandslee said:

Sure did!  Awesome prediction!
 

Hopefully, Spirit will make its announcement tomorrow for the RIC-LAS route. 

The announcement will definitely make some waves, I'd hazard to guess.

[walmartjamesbond]

Avelo officially exits PHF after April 16th, not surprising

[blopp1234]

Just now, walmartjamesbond said:

Avelo officially exits PHF after April 16th, not surprising

I don’t see PHF staying around as a commercially viable airport for much longer after this. My guess is American pulls their last remaining route within the next few years and reallocates the aircraft to another route.

[walmartjamesbond]

2 minutes ago, blopp1234 said:

I don’t see PHF staying around as a commercially viable airport for much longer after this. My guess is American pulls their last remaining route within the next few years and reallocates the aircraft to another route.

I think PHF has a much stronger future. As the Hampton Roads Metro grows, by 2050, PHF will have a lot more population surrounding it. I think at that point it will be normal for a second auxiliary airport. Even if that just means a few more flights on PSA. 

I don’t think PSA will want to give up that market completely as there main traffic is business travelers where the company pays for the ticket.

[I miss RVA]

1 hour ago, walmartjamesbond said:

Avelo officially exits PHF after April 16th, not surprising

I don't know exactly why but I honestly feel bad for PHF. This is really disappointing for them. 

[walmartjamesbond]

47 minutes ago, I miss RVA said:

I don't know exactly why but I honestly feel bad for PHF. This is really disappointing for them. 

They really started going downhill after the loss of AirTran. At one point, they were the fast growing airport in the country. 

The Airport also had lots of legal scandals, which deterred a lot of new carriers from starting. People Express was also a major flop. Covid was the final nail in the coffin.

 

[Niccckk]

56 minutes ago, I miss RVA said:

I don't know exactly why but I honestly feel bad for PHF. This is really disappointing for them. 

Makes you feel worse considering this is the landing page of their website

[I miss RVA]

49 minutes ago, Niccckk said:

Makes you feel worse considering this is the landing page of their website

[eandslee]

…but dang, when are we going to hear something official from Spirit?  Thought Tuesdays were their announcement days. 

[I miss RVA]

Maybe next Tuesday?