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Richmond International Airport


eandslee

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3 hours ago, eandslee said:

I would add to that, nonstop destinations. Despite getting some good ones lately, RIC hasn’t managed to land ALL the good nonstop destinations people want and can be difficult to add if there is no data from the airport that indicates that people want to fly there (because they’re going to other airports where their destination is served).  Airlines don’t know the demand signal for a destination at a certain airport unless passengers use said airport to travel there…even if it means a connection or two.  It’s definitely a tough one. 

VERY good point. What's the metric that you and @blopp1234 & I think @Niccckkoften pull to gauge which routes currently NOT served by RIC have the most latent potential passenger traffic? Don't the airlines use THOSE metrics as well to gauge the best candidates for route expansion?

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1 minute ago, I miss RVA said:

VERY good point. What's the metric that you and @blopp1234 & I think @Niccckkoften pull to gauge which routes currently NOT served by RIC have the most latent potential passenger traffic? Don't the airlines use THOSE metrics as well to gauge the best candidates for route expansion?

PDEW - Per-Day Each Way.  Yes, airlines use this metric to determine if starting a route from a particular airport is worth it to them.  The PDEW numbers have to work out such that it justifies 1) starting a route, and 2) what type of aircraft is requisite for the route.  There are other factors that play into this too.  One factor is that it may mean that an airline would have to cancel a route elsewhere to add one at RIC, so the benefit has to outweigh the cost.  There are other logistics issues to work out as well.

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4 minutes ago, eandslee said:

PDEW - Per-Day Each Way.  Yes, airlines use this metric to determine if starting a route from a particular airport is worth it to them.  The PDEW numbers have to work out such that it justifies 1) starting a route, and 2) what type of aircraft is requisite for the route.  There are other factors that play into this too.  One factor is that it may mean that an airline would have to cancel a route elsewhere to add one at RIC, so the benefit has to outweigh the cost.  There are other logistics issues to work out as well.

If the airlines use then, then they should know the latent/potential demand for the RIC/RVA market, no? Are there other analytics that they use?

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9 minutes ago, I miss RVA said:

If the airlines use then, then they should know the latent/potential demand for the RIC/RVA market, no? Are there other analytics that they use?

That is correct.  I'm sure there might be other metrics they use, but that's the one I read about the most.  There are a myriad of other factors (probably too many to list here) that determines whether an airline will start a new route.  I've seen PDEW metrics from some cities that make that city the obvious place to start a new route, but the airline(s) doesn't (don't) because there are some other factors that they have to consider that, in this case, may not be worth the cost.  These limiting factors can be anything from labor shortages, equipment shortages to logistics, etc. and probably others that I don't know about.

Edited by eandslee
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1 minute ago, eandslee said:

That is correct.  I'm sure there might be other metrics they use, but that's the one I read about the most.  There are a myriad of other factors (probably too many to list here) that determines whether an airline will start a new route.  I've seen PDEW metrics from some cities that make that city the obvious place to start a new route, but the airline(s) doesn't (don't) because there are some other factors that they have to consider that, in this case, may not worth the cost.  These limiting factors can be anything from labor shortages, equipment shortages to logistics, etc.

So if I recall, there are several routes where RIC/RVA market scored pretty high on the PDEW metric, no? 

Silly question from the uneducated layman here - but does "projected competition" factor in, when an airline eschews a particular market/airport? Meaning - they get gun shy about investing whatever it will cost to start up and maintain service in a new market/destination out of fear other airlines will see it, jump on it, and try to price them out of the market - possibly making their investment a waste of money?

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19 minutes ago, I miss RVA said:

So if I recall, there are several routes where RIC/RVA market scored pretty high on the PDEW metric, no? 

Silly question from the uneducated layman here - but does "projected competition" factor in, when an airline eschews a particular market/airport? Meaning - they get gun shy about investing whatever it will cost to start up and maintain service in a new market/destination out of fear other airlines will see it, jump on it, and try to price them out of the market - possibly making their investment a waste of money?

Not a silly question, but the short answer is that you are correct.  That's another factor that airlines will look at...not just projected competition, but current competition as well.  It may not be worth it to try and invade another airlines' "territory," especially if the competition is very "dug in" and very successful out of a particular airport and/or route.  Airlines probably have some sort of gonculator that tells them if starting a route (considering all factors) that is already served (or will be served) by another prominent airline, is worth it or not.

The interesting thing about COVID is that airlines, such as JetBlue, did some testing of routes that normally wouldn't have made sense prior to the  pandemic (remember they started a route between RIC and LAX and one between RIC and LAS).  Neither survived, but that was at the height of COVID.   That test could have (I don't know for sure) helped Breeze determine if the RIC-LAX, RIC-LAS routes would work.  I don't think an airline prior to the pandemic had the balls to risk such a route before COVID, but the silver lining of the pandemic was that after the travel industry began to recover, a newly minted airline (Breeze) saw some potential in nonstop routes to the west coast from RIC (the PDEW numbers were probably decent) and took the risk while it could.  Of course, Breeze needed the right equipment (A220) and manpower to do so as well.  So, everything had to fall into place just right.  As of right now though, I think it has paid off for them...and I hope that it continues to do so!

Edited by eandslee
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image.png.73382ad7b1b9e64e570aee901fd1fe53.png this!!! ^^^^^

And in doing so, changed the entire dynamic that appears to have opened the door for airports like RIC to really flourish in what Disney would songfully describe as "A whole new world". And it goes hand-and-glove with the construction and population booms in the RVA market. We (Richmond) are getting onto a LOT of radar screens, so it seems, and there are plenty more radar scopes just waiting for that "RVA" signal to get strong, loud and clear. That will also add fuel to the fire to bring more routes, more frequent service, better service (in terms of flight times) and even new airlines into the mix in the near future. Businesses are noticing us. Look at what @upzoningisgoodsaid about how a successful launch of the Novel apartments in Scott's would get us even MORE notice. Look at what Greater Richmond Partnership has been saying, as well as folks you know who have been saying that businesses and developers have been circling RVA like buzzards waiting for the right time to swoop in and land here.

ALLLLL of this is building tremendous synergy for our city and metro - and by extension, the airport. We're not there yet, but damn if we ain't knocking REALLLLLLY loudly at the front door now.

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A good site to use is the bureau of transportation statistics, which I’ll link here:

 

https://data.transportation.gov/Aviation/Consumer-Airfare-Report-Table-6-Contiguous-State-C/yj5y-b2ir

 

This database shows how many passengers each day traveled between any city pair in the lower 48 states with atleast 10 passengers per day on commercial airlines. PDEW can be found by dividing the number by 2. PDEW partially plays a role in what routes airlines fly, however there are other factors that come into play such as distance of the route and whether the route is coming from one of the airlines hubs. 
 

All these factors play a part in determining what routes airlines fly and can give the average person an insight into some of the statistics that airline route planners use.

Edited by blopp1234
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Some fun weekend reading/data review:

This is Breeze Airways' statistics from December 2022 (just released) I took from a guy from another airline forum.  Here's the spreadsheet (raw data):

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1D8Qfe71mtul3cqsH10KDFC9vGLW7PWOX/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=102297973809451134928&rtpof=true&sd=true

(Scroll through the tabs at the bottom to see the data you want to see.  I liked looking at the Station Performance tab and the RIC tab)

Some important take-aways from the data presented:

Tier 1: CHS, ORF, BDL, MSY, LAS, TPA, RIC and PVD (based on number of flights RIC has, it is considered a Tier 1 station)
Tier 2: HPN, JAX, CMH, CAK, MCO, SFO and PVU
Tier 3: PBI, SDF, PIT, LAX, PHX, HSV, XNA, SBD, ISP
Tier 4: TUL, SAV, BNA, SYR, SRQ, OKC, RSW and SAT (noting that OKC and SAT are for historic purposes only at this point)

Data Sets:
Current Month – December 22
Prior Month – November 22
Q4 22
YTD
2021
December 21 vs December 22
You will see info on flights, seats, passengers, capacity %, miles, average stage lengths, air time, etc. He used about every metric they have in the specific file.

Some general Breeze Stats:

1M Passengers served in 2022

December
1,453 flights recorded, 180,592 seats and 137,509 passengers (76.1%), against 1,409 flights recorded, 170,566 seats and 126,848 passengers (74.4%) in November, Average Pax on flights increased by 5 from 90 to 95

A223 ops grew to over 53% now, up from 46% in November.  With the balance roughly split 50/50 coming from E190 and E195.

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Highest number of passengers: (RIC does not have the highest number of passengers because the listed stations here are the Base operating airport, which will have way more flights)
CHS – 43,618 - 380K YTD (both directions combined)
TPA – 22,149 – 227K YTD
HPN – 18,356 – 52K YTD
LAS – 18,101 – 72K YTD
BDL – 17,744 – 142K YTD
ORF – actually takes the number 2 spot for the year at 155K, but monthly numbers have dropped, so it’s out side of the top 5.

Station Rankings:
1. LAX – Tier 3 – 82.8% (74 flights)
2. RIC – Tier 1 – 81.2% (162 flights) - Yeah!  For as many flights RIC has compared to #1 (LAX), RIC is doing really well!  Love to see RIC as a top performer here!
3. TPA – Tier 1 – 81.0% (205 Flights)
4. LAS – Tier 1 – 80.7% (174 flights)
5. PHX – Tier 3 – 79.7% (20 flights)


Worst performing stations by rank:

29. BNA – Tier 4 – 64.1% (36 flights)
28. SAV – Tier 4 – 68.4% (45 flights)
27. MCO – Tier 2 – 68.8% (40 flights)
26. HPN – Tier 2 – 69.5% (219 flights)
25. MSY – Tier 1 – 71.1% (130 flights) - This one surprises me.  I guess not too many people going to New Orleans in December 22

Enjoy!

* Can't wait to see the statistics for the first quarter of this new Calendar Year (CY).  I think Breeze's performance at RIC this CY has been superior!
 

Edited by eandslee
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I’m really frustrated by the fact that there has been no announcement regarding Spirit Airlines’ new nonstop service between RIC-LAS that starts 5 May 2023.  I went to see how booked the flights look a few minutes ago and it’s quite pathetic!  Virtually no one is booking because no one knows about it!  
 

This is important news to get out because Spirit is going up against Breeze on this route and good competition means good deals for consumers!  It’s a big deal!  Wish someone with some power in the media could draw attention to this option to the masses in CVA!

 

C9CA4CAF-FD9C-401B-97CE-D411C21410B3.png

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On 3/10/2023 at 6:26 PM, blopp1234 said:

A good site to use is the bureau of transportation statistics, which I’ll link here:

 

https://data.transportation.gov/Aviation/Consumer-Airfare-Report-Table-6-Contiguous-State-C/yj5y-b2ir

 

This database shows how many passengers each day traveled between any city pair in the lower 48 states with atleast 10 passengers per day on commercial airlines. PDEW can be found by dividing the number by 2. PDEW partially plays a role in what routes airlines fly, however there are other factors that come into play such as distance of the route and whether the route is coming from one of the airlines hubs. 
 

All these factors play a part in determining what routes airlines fly and can give the average person an insight into some of the statistics that airline route planners use.

Thanks for providing this outstanding resource!

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Very interesting Breeze statistics. Even as a non-base of flight ops, 162 flights in December is nothing to sneeze at -and more service is on the way this year. I wonder how likely it would be that with some uptick in frequencies, we could crack 200 flights monthly at some point in 2023?

Interesting note: for FY 2022: RIC was ranked 5th in both total flights and total passengers. FIFTH!  FIFTH, PEOPLE!!!

Plus with the wide range of destinations - this SO sounds like "UNOFFICIAL "mini-hub" to me in the same mold of Southwest using RDU as an UNOFFICIAL "mini hub" with their flight load and vast number of destinations.

Edited by I miss RVA
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8 hours ago, eandslee said:

Late evening Breeze push at RIC tonight.  Flights headed for Charleston, New Orleans, and Tampa. Kind of looks like a Breeze hub doesn’t it?  Photos courtesy of my friend Mr. Tinfah, RIC Ops:

 

A214E8E6-BF9D-4636-9D57-410BA7C4F92B.jpeg

600FFA9C-4618-4604-B926-35203C352022.jpeg

CB5C88CF-D524-4A70-9C91-D902B9BC34DC.jpeg

Those A220s look amazing at night wow

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And seeing multiple Breeze planes docked at the gates simultaneously - WOW... combined with the awesome early morning pix last week with some of the other airlines jets all ponying up to the gates - is starting to make RIC look like a real airport, which is as it should be, considering that RIC is statistically the busiest airport between NOVA and Raleigh - meaning, it's the busiest airport in the Commonwealth when we exclude NOVA.

Really impressive!

Edited by I miss RVA
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48 minutes ago, eandslee said:

Finally, the news is out about Spirit Airlines’ nonstop service to LAS from RIC!

https://www.nbc12.com/2023/03/15/spirit-airlines-adds-first-nonstop-flight-vegas-ric/

That’s great news. When we travelled more, visiting National parks, Vegas was the cheap option for flights and then we’d start our park tour from there. Hope we take advantage of this!

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1 hour ago, eandslee said:

Finally, the news is out about Spirit Airlines’ nonstop service to LAS from RIC!

https://www.nbc12.com/2023/03/15/spirit-airlines-adds-first-nonstop-flight-vegas-ric/

Took 'em long enough. Wow!!

So the NBC 12 story is saying this is the first daily non-stop between RIC-LAS. What's Breeze's frequency - 4x/week?  Also - Spirit now offers three destinations - Fort Lauderdale, Orlando and Vegas. Do we know the frequency of these flights? I wonder if there's any chance Spirit might start beefing up the number of flights/destinations or both flying out of RIC?

Edited by I miss RVA
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4 minutes ago, I miss RVA said:

Took 'em long enough. Wow!!

So the NBC 12 story is saying this is the first daily non-stop between RIC-LAS. What's Breeze's frequency - 4x/week?

That is correct. Breeze runs a 4x/week service, whereas this one is daily. 
 

Well, it would have probably never happened had I not “led the horse to water!”  I was tired of no one having run a story on it…so I did a little coaxing.  :shades:

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Just now, benstyree said:

Looking at future schedules, it seems like Breeze is increasing their frequency to 5x/week starting next month!

Already seeing some of the effects of the Spirit route already!  Great!  Competition usually favors the consumer! 

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