How many people in metro Jax by 2010?

[mwfsu84]

What's your guess?

The metro area, according to the US Census is defined as Duval, Clay, St. Johns and Nassau counties.

In a recent article, TU columnist Karen Brune Mathis reported that one economic analyst tagged the current four-county Jax meto population at about 1.24 million. Next year it will rise to 1.265 million.

Most estimates I've read have the 2010 population in the 1.3 million range.

I say the actual count will be right at 1.4 million.

[RiversideGator]

I would say 1.4 to 1.5 million. I believe the MSA now includes Duval, St. Johns, Clay, Nassau AND Baker too.

[Jaxson]

I would really like to see us eclipse 1.5 million, however, I think 1.425 million is the most realistic estimate.

[bobliocatt]

I think 1.5 million is a realistic possibility. One thing to keep an eye on is the distant possibility that Camden County, GA could also be added as a part of the metro by 2010.

[mwfsu84]

How about Flagler County being added? I read somewhere that Flager County was trying to gain membership on of the economic development committees in NE FL.

[95-Souf]

Which NE Florida County would see the most growth,.. I would have to say St. Johns county,. especially with the new developments of Nacatee (if spelled right) and the other residential area to be constructed on the west side of I-95 just before World Golf Village. My estimates would have Jax Metro at 1,350,000 people in 2010, realistically.

[Jaxson]

If Flagler County (FL) and Canden County, GA were added that would certainly puch the Jax Metro over 1.5 million by 2010 if not sooner. Based on the estimates listed in the original post (1.265 million in 2005/2006) the addition of these two counties is an instant 9% gain.

I know this is all speculation, but it is so much fun.

[95-Souf]

If Flagler County (FL) and Canden County, GA were added that would certainly puch the Jax Metro over 1.5 million by 2010 if not sooner.  Based on the estimates listed in the original post (1.265 million in 2005/2006) the addition of these two counties is an instant 9% gain.

I know this is all speculation, but it is so much fun.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Is'nt that a stretch to add Camden County, Ga.. Its really not that dense in population and is very far from Jacksonville's urban core,.. Yes, I know people do commute to Jax from Kingsland and vise versa,.. but adding the south Georgia county would be like adding Columbia County to the metopolitan area. And if your going to add Flagler, why not Putnam County?......

[Jaxson]

Camden County population is 45,470 ('03 est) at a density of 70 ppsm and is approximatley 30 (closest) to 60 (furtherest) miles from Downtown Jax.

Columbia is more like 70 miles and density of 68 ppsm, certainly a stretch.

Good point on Putnam. However, even though I do think that would be a possiblity, Putnam has employment options that does keep people in county and not commuting to Jax for employment at the same rate as Flagler.

[bobliocatt]

Commuting patterns would be the case to be made for Camden County. Its already double the population of Baker and most of its residents live and work near Kingsland or in Amelia Island and North Jax, which is right across the state border.

Personally, I know of several large developments (two of which I helped develop the master plans) planned in that area that should be well underway, if not completed, by 2010. Combine this with the growth of North Jax and around JIA, and its very well possible that Camden will become a large bedroom community, in the way that Northern St. Johns has become today.

[Urban_Legend]

A while back, I read that master-plan developers were looking at Baker county, because it was cheaper to build over there. That's not too bad of a commute, IMO. But that's if they ever built some large master-planned communities (I.E. Stepford....) lol

[bobliocatt]

I wouldn't doubt it. Like Baker, many are looking at Camden County, GA because its mostly undeveloped, has direct access to I-95, its loaded with large rivers leading to the Atlantic, land is cheaper, and its easier and cheaper to get a DRI in Georgia than it is in Florida.

Hopefully, the sprawl won't take away from the revitalization of the city's core.

[Viper]

I've followed projection since 1998 and 1.468 million is my current projection given the curent 5 county (Baker included) metro.

However, the addition of other counties and potential growth beyond previous years annual percntages could easily increase that to well over 1.5.

My ranges.

High - 1.53

Mid - 1.468

Low - 1.38

What's crazy is that low rate is easy to obtain and is a much higher rate than many cities best percentage projection.

[monsoon]

How about Flagler County being added?  I read somewhere that Flager County was trying to gain membership on  of the economic development committees in NE FL.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Remember that counties are added by the Federal govt. simply by looking at commuting patterns. If a certain percentage of people commute to one of the core counties for Jax, then it will be added. If instead it grows beyond 50K people and people don't commute to Jax, then it could be made its own micropolitan area.

Local governments can't ask to be part of a particular MSA or CSA.

[bobliocatt]

^Before the 2000 Census, Flagler was considered a part of the Daytona Beach metro. However, its now considered a micropolitan area, because most of its residents don't commute to Daytona or Jax, despite, being so close.

[asonj23]

The whole "metro" concept still confuses me. Personally a metro should be no

larger than the area linked by continuous development. That being said St.

Augustine, Green Cove, Fernandina, Macclenny, Middleburg, etc would all be cut

out of the metro numbers. But then again, there are a large number of the

surrounding areas that work in Jax. So are the metro numbers driven by the local

workforce or surrounding residences?

To answer the topic, my guess, given the current "metro" boundaries, would be about 1.5 - 1.6 million.

[bobliocatt]

What you described (areas linked by development) is considered to be the "Urban Area". Metro numbers are driven by general statistics, such as commuting numbers between the core county and surrounding counties. To my knowledge, the government doesn't split counties up. From what I've seen metro areas include all parts of a county, regardless of whether its completely developed or not.

[DavePaulk]

I think a population of 1.5 million would be awesome. Another question to ask is how many people downtown in 2010.

[BosTech]

Well we should add northwest Bosnia to metro Jax and that would propel populations way past 3 milion this year alone,considering all people that "comute" between Bosnia and Jax.

I still don't see how 100,000 more people will make some significant changes to Jax,all this sounds like regular growth not to brag about.

[jjoshjl]

I think Lakelander mentioned there were about 1500 people right now... This is jsut a hopefully, but with all the projects going up around downtown, My guess would be between 7,000 to 10,000 people downtwon

[NoFxfan]

Well we should add northwest Bosnia to metro Jax and  that would propel populations way past 3 milion this year alone,considering all people that "comute" between Bosnia and Jax.

I still don't see how 100,000 more people will make some significant changes to Jax,all this sounds like regular growth not to brag about.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Here is how I look at it. Look at Miami and Tampa. They both have HUGE metro areas(I mean come on, WPB is in the miami metro ), which inflates their population numbers. If they can do it, why cant we?

[JaxInvestor]

1,402,075