2004 SC Metro Population Est.

[goodbye]

I wouldn't disagree with you there, at least not yet. That place is crawling with people, probably mostly tourists, but there must be folks living there to maintain the jobs.

[The_sandlapper]

Actually land in Myrtle Beach is very expensive.  The city is in fact an island which limits what is available for development, and there are no interstates or freeways going to the area for development.  Finally, though the rules have been broken in this manner, much of the undeveloped land there is protected wetlands.

Myrtle Beach has a tremendous number of highrise condos.  Many of these condos are rented property, but a large number of people moving there actually live in these things.  Myrtle Beach may have the densest most urban housing of anywhere in the state.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well not Myrtle Beach proper but the surrounding areas (Garden City, Little River, Socastee, etc..) places where it's a little more expensive than the rest of the state but considerablly cheaper than NYC, Philly, or Conn, where alot of retirees are moving from. This has been my experience.

[UrbanSoutherner]

Greenville County is the largest county and had the biggest total numbers gain 2000-2004. However, growth does not respect county lines. There was little growth in Greenville's suburban counties Lauren and Pickens (surprising how little growth in Pickens). Clearly, Columbia and Charleston's suburban counties (Dorchester, Berkeley, Lexington, and Kershaw especially) are getting more of their respective MSA's growth. So since growth does not respect county boundaries, I did the numbers for the three MSAs for 2000 vs. 2004:

Charleston MSA

2004: 583,434

2000: 548,972

# Change: 34,362

% Change: 6.3

Columbia MSA

2004: 679,456

2000: 647,158

# Change: 32,298

% Change: 5.0

Greenville MSA

2004: 583,867

2000: 559,922

# Change: 23,945

% Change: 4.3

So, it seems that Charleston still leads in both sheer number and percentage growth, followed by Columbia and then Greenville. It also seems that the Charleston MSA is about to push the Greenville MSA to third position amoung the state's MSAs. This of course assumes that Greenville is not merged again with Spartanburg and/or Anderson as a single MSA. Interestingly, while the addition of the rural outlying counties to Columbia's MSA recently boosted its overall population, it actually hurts its overall % growth rate since Saluda County actually lost people.

I would really love it if the Census Bureau updated UA figures more frequently since that would really be more enlightening as to where the growth is occurring than county figures are. But oh well.

[motonenterprises]

I can almost promise you Greenville won't fall to third.

[krazeeboi]

Probably not, since I think that it will be merged again with Spartanburg in the next census. That being the case, it would obviously be the largest metro in the state.

[teshadoh]

Spartan - I'm guilty of this of course - but you will want to update your MSA / CSA definitions, they made an update last year.

http://www.census.gov/population/estimates...-city/List6.txt

In other words - Greenville/Spartanburg/Anderson CSA is SC's first million metro.

[Topher1]

^^ Chances are, Greenville already is 3rd, since these estimates are for last year. Of course, these ARE only estimates, and the census department has shown how bad their estimates are when census 2000 came out. The estimates are fun, but they definately should be taken with a grain of salt...

[UrbanSoutherner]

I too suspect Greenville will be merged again with its neighbors at some point eventually. There just needs to be more economic integration and development between the areas. When I drive I-85 between Anderson and Greenville or Greenville and Spartanburg, there still seems to be some pretty decent-sized undeveloped and essentially rural gaps.

What I really find so interesting about the big three in SC is how evenly matched they truly are in size and growth rates. They are spread out geographically rather evenly too with Charleston for the Lowcountry, Columbia for the Midlands, and Greenville for the Upstate. They all have UAs of similar size (if you consider the Maudin-Simpsonville UA to be in with Greenville's UA as it is clearly suburban Greenville). Their MSAs are close in size. And their growth rates all fall in the 4 - 6 % range. Despite all the boosterism (not a bad thing) by the proponents of the different cities on this site, the truth seems to be that they are similar sized cities with similar growth rates, and none of the three has really broken out of the pack so to speak. While each of the cities has its own very different personality, the statistics are quite similar. It is very different from Georgia with its dominant focus on one metro area.

I also ran the numbers on the "boomtowns" of SC and its two neighbors for some growth perspective. These are among the MSAs with a double digit growth rate over 2000 to 2004. Myrtle Beach's MSA between 2000 and 2004 had a 10.7% growth rate (196,629 to 217,608). In NC, the Raleigh-Cary MSA (like Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson, the Triangle's old single MSA was broken up by the Census Bureau) had a whopping 14.8% growth rate (797,071 to 914,680). If you include Durham in with Raleigh, you get a lower but still impressive 11.6% growth rate (1,223,564 to 1,365,892). Charlotte had a 10.8% growth rate (1,330,448 to 1,474,734). Of course, York County in SC is part of Charlotte's boom. In Georgia, Atlanta (aka the Blob that Ate North Georgia) had a 10.8% growth rate (4,247,981 to 4,708,297). Metro Atlanta is now poised to break the 5 million mark by the 2010 census and has over half of Georgia's population.

None of SC's big three are that league of booming growth rates yet at least. If USC's research campus takes off, perhaps Columbia. If ICAR takes off, perhaps Greenville. Maybe Charleston with the port and other quality of life offerings. Who knows. Of course, boomtowns are not always the best places to live in terms of the rapid increases in housing costs, traffic, etc. So in some ways, growing at a healthy but somewhat slower rate preserves a quality of life. If I were to ever relocate back to SC, it would be to one of the big three and it would be to get away from the negative effects of boomtown life in Atlanta. So to the boosters, be careful what you wish for.

[The_sandlapper]

I don't want Columbia to neccesarly be a boomtown and see rapid uncontrolled growth. Like I said before I really don't care who's the biggest fish in SC I just like to spread awareness that "my city is no different than yours" no matter where I go. Being born in NJ and growing up in SC I always thought I was missing out in life. Then when I got older and traveled more I realized that the same experiences I had in Columbia where the same my buddies had in DC, Denver, Toronto, VA Beach, St. Louis, & even CLT/Rock Hill. After getting to know them I felt like wow, I really didn't miss out on nothing. I'd like to see the Cola MSA hit the million mark and kinda level off from there. That seems to be the mark when people start taking seriously as a "real city" and even some of them struggle to shake off that small city image (Charlotte, Austin, Orlando, etc..) but these are new cities just hitting there million mark about a decade or two ago so they aren't exactly accepted yet. From what I've been told Houston, and Atl went through the same growing pains and even til today many don't accept them as "real cities".

[UrbanSoutherner]

I don't want Columbia to neccesarly be a boomtown and see rapid uncontrolled growth. Like I said before I really don't care who's the biggest fish in SC I just like to spread awareness that "my city is no different than yours" no matter where I go. Being born in NJ and growing up in SC I always thought I was missing out in life. Then when I got older and traveled more I realized that the same experiences I had in Columbia where the same my buddies had in DC, Denver, Toronto, VA Beach, St. Louis, & even CLT/Rock Hill. After getting to know them I felt like wow, I really didn't miss out on nothing. I'd like to see the Cola MSA hit the million mark and kinda level off from there. That seems to be the mark when people start taking seriously as a "real city" and even some of them struggle to shake off that small city image (Charlotte, Austin, Orlando, etc..) but these are new cities just hitting there million mark about a decade or two ago so they aren't exactly accepted yet. From what I've been told Houston, and Atl went through the same growing pains and even til today many don't accept them as "real cities".

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I agree a million is a nice size if you do not want the hassles of a big city but want a good level of amenities and options. I would like to see Atlanta start leveling off around 5 million. Of course, I am afraid that it will not unless it finally chokes on traffic or runs out of water. And I agree that some people will never accept Sunbelt cities as "real" cities. It's because they are the new kids on the block, had a lot of their physical expansion during the sprawl era, and do not have the old institutions that the old larger cities do. But they will became more established and urban feeling over time.

[monsoon]

Probably not, since I think that it will be merged again with Spartanburg in the next census. That being the case, it would obviously be the largest metro in the state.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

There is no guarantee that will happen. The Charlotte metro was recently split which reduced the size of its metro population. It isn't population growth that causes areas to merge, but rather, it is commuting patterns.

[Spartan]

Spartan - I'm guilty of this of course - but you will want to update your MSA / CSA definitions, they made an update last year.

http://www.census.gov/population/estimates...-city/List6.txt

In other words - Greenville/Spartanburg/Anderson CSA is SC's first million metro.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I did not know that! I will update my numbers as soon as I get a chance. Thanks for informing me of that.

[UrbanSoutherner]

There is no guarantee that will happen.  The Charlotte metro was recently split which reduced the size of its metro population.  It isn't population growth that causes areas to merge, but rather, it is commuting patterns.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Good point monsoon. I have to say I still have a hard time thinking of Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson as one area. For such a large geographic area (practically everything from the Georgia state line to metro Charlotte), it is still just not dense enough or interconnected enough to be one metro. There is still a lot of open space in between the urban centers. It may be truly one area eventually, but I do not think that it is right now. The Census Bureau's commuting pattern definition I think is rather reasonable. It's 25% for MSAs? And 15% for CSAs? Right?

[krazeeboi]

There is no guarantee that will happen.  The Charlotte metro was recently split which reduced the size of its metro population.  It isn't population growth that causes areas to merge, but rather, it is commuting patterns.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

How exactly did the Charlotte metro get split?

[teshadoh]

Something to take a gander at - based on the updated 2004 definitions.

Population growth 2000 to 2004.

[krazeeboi]

Wow, both Lexington AND Kershaw are heating up a bit.

And I know York is really benefitting from the population boom in Charlotte, but I suspect that Lancaster will at least get into the orange pretty soon, as they are getting a lot of the southeast/Ballantyne spillover.

[monsoon]

How exactly did the Charlotte metro get split?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Several of the surrounding counties are now micropolitan areas. For example Iredell and Lancaster counties actually border Mecklenburg (Charlotte) but are not considered part of the MSA. In the 2000 census CLT's Metro was 1.7M. it is not around 1.5M though it is obviously growing.

Charlotte's CSA does cover all these counties however.

[The_sandlapper]

I have to say I still have a hard time thinking of Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson as one area. For such a large geographic area (practically everything from the Georgia state line to metro Charlotte), it is still just not dense enough or interconnected enough to be one metro. There is still a lot of open space in between the urban centers. It may be truly one area eventually, but I do not think that it is right now. The Census Bureau's commuting pattern definition I think is rather reasonable. It's 25% for MSAs? And 15% for CSAs? Right?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I thought I was the only person that thought that way. When I lived there it I didn't think that it that continous feel to it either like say RDU. There was Spartanburg some small rural areas on the way to Greenville, then some small rural areas on the way to Anderson. The three cities seemed very separate from each other. I found Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point had that same feel to it. The new definitions made sense for that area because it seemed that Greensboro and High Point were continous areas you couldn't tell were Greensboro ended and High point began. But going from Greensboro to Winston seemed less continuous. In the Upstate it felt more continuous (North-South) going from Ftn. Inn to TR than it did (East-West) SPA to AND. I really wouldn't have known it was supposed to be a continuous metro if it wasn't for the 6 lane two way highway that runs from SPA to AND which encompasses about 80 miles of highway. But that was just my take on the area's continuity.

[Spartan]

There is a connection, and its based on jobs. It is true that Greenville, Spartanburg, and Anderson are separate areas, but because Greenville actually spills over into the surrounding counties it creates the bond that holds that CSA together. I know that the Dunan-Lyman-Welford-Startex area likely has as many jobs going to Greer and Greenville as it does to Spartanburg. Anderson County's conneciton is obvious with the fact that a stadium was proposed in the Piedmont area just on the other side of the county line. The Upstate has stronger ties than may be apparant to the passer by. Its not just the interstate

[motonenterprises]

Another good point Spartan.

[waccamatt]

Wow, both Lexington AND Kershaw are heating up a bit.

With Columbia now spilling over into Kershaw County I think you will see a very large population increase in Kershaw County between now and the end of the decade. It is not almost completely built up for the entire 32 mile stretch along U.S. 1 from Columbia to Camden.

[UrbanSoutherner]

I am amazed at how far the eastward arm of suburban sprawl is growing out of Columbia and into Kershaw County. Yet, you go south of the city and you are in countryside pretty quickly. At what point does the growth start spreading around to other sides rather than just going further and further out towards Camden and Lake Murray? What about southern Lexington County, northern Calhoun County, and lower Richland County? Columbia's growth is lopsided right now. That is somewhat usual for cities, but still, it seems to be getting a bit extreme in Columbia.

[teshadoh]

I am amazed at how far the eastward arm of suburban sprawl is growing out of Columbia and into Kershaw County. Yet, you go south of the city and you are in countryside pretty quickly. At what point does the growth start spreading around to other sides rather than just going further and further out towards Camden and Lake Murray? What about southern Lexington County, northern Calhoun County, and lower Richland County? Columbia's growth is lopsided right now. That is somewhat usual for cities, but still, it seems to be getting a bit extreme in Columbia.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The growth is following the freeway (I'm sure you realize that) towards Camden, Newberry & beyond Lexington. South of the city on 77, St Matthews is now technically a suburb, but I'm not aware of any growth occuring yet. But the reason it isn't that noticable in other small cities the size of Columbia - is because they aren't growing as fast as Columbia. I think most post WWII growth follows the 'sprawling spiral' style of development, as Atlanta is. But as they grow out a far distance, infill occurs between the spirals and the area fills out - but most likely it spreads out again.

But I don't know much about the growth patterns south of the city, I'm a bit familiar with what is going on along 20 & 26 north due to the expanding consolidated metro. My hope is that Camden & Newberry mark the limits of development out of Columbia & everything else will be filled in.

[sonofaque86]

Columbia is growing lopsided...It's like a tree...branch is coming out towards kershaw county

[UrbanSoutherner]

The growth is following the freeway (I'm sure you realize that) towards Camden, Newberry & beyond Lexington.  South of the city on 77, St Matthews is now technically a suburb, but I'm not aware of any growth occuring yet.  But the reason it isn't that noticable in other small cities the size of Columbia - is because they aren't growing as fast as Columbia.  I think most post WWII growth follows the 'sprawling spiral' style of development, as Atlanta is.  But as they grow out a far distance, infill occurs between the spirals and the area fills out - but most likely it spreads out again.

But I don't know much about the growth patterns south of the city, I'm a bit familiar with what is going on along 20 & 26 north due to the expanding consolidated metro.  My hope is that Camden & Newberry mark the limits of development out of Columbia & everything else will be filled in.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Calhoun County (St. Matthews is the county seat) is still VERY rural. Sandy Springs in the northern end of the county has a lot of Columbia commuters (living in a rural and not suburban setting). Cameron in the southern end of the county has a lot of Orangeburg commuters. St. Matthews has a lot of both. The county was actually briefly part of the Orangeburg Micropolitan Area when it was first defined, but then it was added to the Columbia MSA. I think the county piggybacks on with Orangeburg County on things like the technical college, hospital, and jail. Basically though, it is a rural commuter community for both Columbia and Orangeburg. There is no real suburban growth in the county, though. It is a rural commuter area. And the northern end (a little piece that sticks into Lexington County) is pretty close to downtown Columbia and there is little traffic getting into the city from that side.