Mecklenburg losing ground to Wake County

[RiverwoodCLT]

The bigger picture is that from I85 at the SC line to Durham and I40 to Raleigh, in 50 years it will be mostly urban areas. That will be the largest popuation area in NC. The Triaid, Charlotte and RDU will join.

If you want to get bigger, look south on I85 in SC and I77 in SC. and I77 north to I40.

Folks, thats going to be a lot of people.

I think we will be looking at a megalopolis in the southeast.

I don't think it will matter who has the most people.

[EastSideResider]

Charlotte is double the population of Raleigh. Unless you're talking about very, very, long term it will never happen. And still then it probably won't.

[RiverwoodCLT]

I thinking of county population. Raleigh is miles behind Charlotte as being a large city. The way Raleigh is lay-out, it would be hard to pass Charlotte. It is like Charlotte, it can't annex all of Wake county.

[nyxmike]

Well, according to the Charlotte Chamber and the Wake County government website, Mecklenburg's population is currently 829,978 and Wake is 749,989. In 2015, Mecklenburg's population will be approx. 1,182,128 and Wake will be 999,504. According to the graphs, Wake County doesn't reach 1.1 million until about 2020. This is when I am going to assume that Mecklenburg will begin to slow down and Wake will take over (obviously because Wake is a larger county). Either way it doesn't matter, because by 2030 both counties will have a population of over 1.3 million people and will be the most populated counties in the state. Charlotte's metro population will still be larger because Union, Cabarrus, and Iredell counties are all suppose to atleast double in population in the future.

http://www.wakegov.com/general/census/default.htm

http://www.charlottechamber.com/content.cf...&content_id=187

[A2]

In about 4 years Mecklenburg will have about 1,000,000 people. (see mecklenburg projections) Charlotte will probably be at least 2/3 that number, IMO. We already have over 630K. That would put the city pop at 750,000 easy.)

http://www.charlottechamber.com/content.cf...&content_id=186

A2

[monsoon]

The Charlotte Chamber's numbers are very very optimistic. In order to meet the 1000000 mark by 2009 you have to completely ignore the growth rate of the county and assume that it will all of a sudden more than double that where it has been for the last 15 years. I don't think so. In fact the Meck growth rate is slowing because the number of people moving into the county is not growing relative to the number living here.

If we are lucky, and the current growth rate holds Mecklenburg might break the 900,000 mark by 2010

[A2]

Currently we already have 830K in Mecklenburg. MB, do you REALLY think that Mecklenburg will only grow 8% in the next 5 years??? That is only like a 2% growth rate annually. We have grown nearly 20% in just the last 5 years. I think the projections are a bit conservative from the Chamber at only an 8% pick up to be real honest. At the rate Charlotte is picking up steam in the Banking and Business, I could see Mecklenburg with an easy 10% pickup. That would put us at 830K + 83K= 913K in just the next Three years.

If we use a 15% number for the growth over the next five years, we would be at 950K. Now that is only a 3% growth annually. I think that is fair, right??? B)

A2

Here is the math

2000 Mecklenburg had 695K

2005 Mecklenburg has 830K

A difference of over 135K or a percentage change of 17- 20% (on rough numbers) in only Five years !

[Tayfromcarolina]

It's hard to debate what the population will be in the future. For instance look at Las Vegas, NV. Who knew they would explode in population like they have in the last few years. It only takes a few months for something really great to happen to make an area suddenly become "THE SPOT" to move too. If fact I had just moved to Raleigh when Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill, NC. Were named top place to live in the country in 1994. Before that Raleigh and the area had been growing at a modest pace. But since then it's been break neck pace.

All I'm sayin is that both areas are progressive and doing well. In 2010 or shortly thereafter lets reconviene and see what the Census says; Shall we? For all we know Richmond, VA could have a "Best Place to live" Accolade and leave Charlotte and Raleigh both in the dust in the coming decade. But I highly doubt it.

[monsoon]

2005 Mecklenburg has 830K

A difference of  over 135K or a percentage change of 17- 20% (on rough numbers) in only Five years !

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Mecklenburg county does not have 850K residents which is where your math is flawed. You can't use Chamber numbers to prove Chamber number.

[nyxmike]

Mecklenburg county does not have 850K residents which is where your math is flawed. You can't use Chamber numbers to prove Chamber number.   

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So what is the current population of Mecklenburg county then??

The Chambers estimates are based on a growth rate of 3%..

Year Population

2006 859,857

2007 890,812

2008 922,882

2009 956,105

2010 990,525

It's about 30-35,000 people a year - how is that overly optimistic?

[monsoon]

The Chamber's numbers are really a long stretch. A 3% compounded growth rate would result in a 34% decade growth rate. From 1990-2000, it was only 21%.

From the US Census for Mecklenburg County

• 2000 - 700,306

• 2001 - 719,423 - +19,117

• 2002 - 735,085 - +15,662

• 2003 - 753,049 - +17,964

• 2004 - 771,617 - +18,568

4 year average - 17,827/year

Projection for Mecklenburg using average growth rate from above

• 2005 - 789,444

• 2006 - 807,271

• 2007 - 825,098

• 2008 - 842,925

• 2009 - 860,752

• 2010 - 878,579

Considering the high prices in Meck and the towns in the northern 1/5th of the county taking counter measures against growth, even these numbers may be optimistic.

[Seabreeze]

Why should I believe the Chamber exagerrates its figures? Where is the proof... Until I have an Action 9 investigation proving it I am going to believe what they post.

[monsoon]

Why should I believe the Chamber exagerrates its figures? Where is the proof... Until I have an Action 9 investigation proving it I am going to believe what they post.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

In business it is always a good idea to understand how numbers are generated and reported. It is how you determine if they are correct or not. I have not seen how the Chamber reports its numbers, just that it did. On the other hand, the US Census, which has no reason to over-report for Mecklenburg will tell you in painful detail the methods they use to calculate the numbers for counties such as Mecklenburg.

If I had to bet some money, I would go with the US Census over the Charlotte Chamber of Commerce for accurate estimates of Mecklenburg's population.

But if you don't like the US Census, the state of NC also has an agency for counting people in NC. They claim the 2004 population of Mecklenburg is 768,773 and in 2010 it will be 880,879. You can review their information here.

[atlrvr]

The Chamber definetly has 0% validity. The forecast out with an average annual growth rate that was experienced in the late 1990s.

The census on the other hand is a bit conservative, looking at building permits, and longer term annualized trends.

There are other companies like ESRI that project population, and they base it on new postal addresses, and then conservatively rounded down to long-term trends at the block group level.

Doing my own analysis for my work, I've estimated the population at about 812,000 for the county and predict it will hit about 925,000-930,000 in 2010.....but then again, my methods probably aren't any more statistically valid than any other agengy besides the Chamber.

[A2]

Mecklenburg county does not have 850K residents which is where your math is flawed. You can't use Chamber numbers to prove Chamber number.

[monsoon]

According to the US Census the population of Mecklenburg was 511K in 90' and in 2000 it was 695K. Now that is over a 35% grwoth rate in 10 years. Those are not Chamber figures, those are direct from the Gov't. Now let's just play conservative and say we just do 20% from 2000 to 2010 that would be 840K. If we duplicated our efforts with respect to growth rate that pegs us at around 950K-960K just shy of a million. I will concede that Mecklenburg will not grow that fast, but I think being north of 900K is not to far fetched. 

A2

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You are correct about the 35%. However that does not translate to 3% growth/year because it does not take into account compounding. Below is the percentage change/year for Meck. Note that it only hit 3% twice in the last 15 years. Also in the 1990s, the Census estimate vs the actual Census count was off by only 34K people so I would say they are pretty accurate.

• 1990 - 514,831

• 1991 - 527,121 - 12,290 - 2.38%

• 1992 - 535,356 - 8,235 - 1.53%

• 1993 - 547,948 - 12,592 - 2.35%

• 1994 - 562,788 - 14,840 - 2.7%

• 1995 - 578,832 - 16,044 - 2.9%

• 1996 - 596,256 - 17,424 - 3.0%

• 1997 - 614,209 - 17,953 - 3.0%

• 1998 - 630,813 - 16,604 - 2.7%

• 1999 - 648,400 - 17,587 - 2.7%

• 2000 - 700,306 - 51,906 - 8.0% (includes census correction, actual count)

• 2001 - 719,423 - 19,117 - 2.7%

• 2002 - 735,085 - 15,662 - 2.1%

• 2003 - 753,049 - 17,964 - 2.4%

• 2004 - 771,617 - 18,568 - 2.4%

[A2]

A2

[monsoon]

The state Demographic Site projects that Mecklenburg will cross the 1M mark in 11 years in 2016.

[atlrvr]

Let's everyone guess, I believe it will happen sometime in late 2012, but I guess 2013 will be the first reported year over 1M.

Coincidentally......2012-2013 is the year that I think Charlotte will "arrive", and will become recognized as an important/recognizable city on the national scale.

[A2]

The state Demographic Site projects that Mecklenburg will cross the 1M mark in 11 years in 2016.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That's over 10 years away. The city's population alone is already over 630K as of 2005. What do you think MB??? (not referncing the site's info), your personal opinion. I personally believe that we will be @ 1,000,000 by 2011-2012. Again this is my opinion only. Now I will say that one thing that could bring our numbers down would be migration into surrounding counties because of taxes. This would result in Charlotte being another Atlanta with respect to its growth being peripheral instead of inward. I hope that does not happen. I think all of us would agree that density is the key to Charlotte's success. I REALLY hope the state is wrong about their projections as that will mean most of the growth has decided to surround the county instead of grow in it. I love Cabbarus, York, Rowan, Lancaster, and Gaston counties. But I do not want them to be sprwaled out cul-de-sac developed counties that just propel sprwal for the community we all Love

A2

[monsoon]

That's over 10 years away. The city's population alone is already over 630K as of 2005. What do you think MB??? (not referncing the site's info), your personal opinion. .....

A2

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I don't know. Predictions that far our are almost always notoriously wrong. I think the county is going to be challenged to continue accepting new residents mainly because the developable land is running out. It's been easy to strip land and throw up developments for the last 25 years. But I don't think they can allow these policies to continue or another 400K in the county is going to be a big mess. What plans have they offered to support another 400K residents in Meck in a more sustainable fashion?

[A2]

I don't know.  Predictions that far our are almost always notoriously wrong.  I think the county is going to be challenged to continue accepting new residents mainly because the developable land is running out.  It's been easy to strip land and throw up developments for the last 25 years.  But I don't think they can allow these policies to continue or another 400K in the county is going to be a big mess.  What plans have they offered to support another 400K residents in Meck in a more sustainable fashion?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

True. I see your reasoning. I also agree with the part about almost being totally developed. Mecklenburg only has a few places to support a surge of new homes nd development and that would be SW and NW meck, but that land is being gobbled up like mad. We would be hard pressed to put another 200-300K in pop in thoses areas since most of the development is single family homes. Urgggg

A2

[Skyybutter]

True. I see your reasoning. I also agree with the part about almost being totally developed. Mecklenburg only has a few places to support a surge of new homes nd development and that would be SW and NW meck, but that land is being gobbled up like mad. We would be hard pressed to put another 200-300K in pop in thoses areas since most of the development is single family homes. Urgggg 

A2

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I live in Cabarrus county and Ivre noticed plenty of land while driving in Northeast and far east meck county. Areas on Rocky River rd, Harrisburg rd in Meck county seem to have lots of undeveloped land available.

[A2]

I live in Cabarrus county and Ivre noticed plenty of land while driving in Northeast and far east meck county. Areas on Rocky River rd, Harrisburg rd in Meck county seem to have lots of undeveloped land available.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I forgot about that skyybutter your right. I think there is also a lot of land going out towards Albermarle. (If memory serves me correctly).

A2

[A2]

Just thought I'd throw another site's estimates out there for just another confusing resource in our debate.

Demographics

As of 2004, census estimates show there are 614,330 people living in Charlotte, and 801,137* in Mecklenburg County. The county's population is projected to reach 1 million in 2010.

Here's the link.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlotte

Most of you guys are familiar with the site, and all of the estimates are from the US Census (again this is according to them)

A2

*I have seen this 801137 number in many other sites to reference the population of Mecklenburg in 04'. It has to be somewhat close since so many other resourceful sites use this number.