Which southern metro will reach 1 million first?

[krazeeboi]

Got this idea from another forum....so which one will it be?

[teshadoh]

If it's not merged into Tampa - my guess would be Sarasota.

[RiversideGator]

What are the present populations of these metro areas?

[krazeeboi]

67 Baton Rouge, LA 728731

68 El Paso, TX 713126

71 Columbia, SC 679456

77 Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice, FL 651862

79 Knoxville, TN 647170

80 Little Rock-North Little Rock, AR 636636

84 Charleston-North Charleston, SC 583434

93 Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC 515314

109 Lexington-Fayette, KY 424661

[The_sandlapper]

Here are some growth rates so people will be able to make an educated guess.

Growth rates (2000-2003) shake down like this:

1. Sarasota 6.89%

2. Charleston 3.95%

3. El Paso 3.66%

4. Columbia 3.53%

5. Lexington 3.27%

6. Knoxville 3.22%

7. Little Rock 2.39%

8. Augusta 2.31%

9. Baton Rouge 2.22%

[krazeeboi]

This should help too.

[Spartan]

Sarasota seems less independant than these other cities. It will mostlikely reach 1 million first if it doesn't merge with Tampa.

Outside of that I qould say Charleston, SC. That area is growing like mad.

[bobliocatt]

Sarasota, like just about every other mid-sized Florida city, is just as independant as any other city on the list.

However, while the others are quite isolated, its overshadowed by a much larger metro (Tampa) to the north.

At the current growth rates, I think Fort Myers, just south of Sarasota, will beat all of the other metros listed on here, to 1 million, as well.

[johnnydr87]

i voted little rock just because.

if we were all going against our home state biases, then our rankings would probably look somethink like this:

1. Sarasota 6.89%

2. Charleston 3.95%

3. El Paso 3.66%

4. Columbia 3.53%

5. Lexington 3.27%

6. Knoxville 3.22%

7. Little Rock 2.39%

8. Augusta 2.31%

9. Baton Rouge 2.22%

Little Rock's growth is pathetic. It's satellite cities are growing at a much faster pace: benton, bryant, conway, hot springs, etc. Little rock's growth was a mere 3,000 in the 90s, while Conway's went from around 15k to 41k. Northwest arkansas, as you all probably already know, grew immensely fast (yadda yadda yadda) and received top ranking at milken institute in 2005 and 7th in the nation this year (yadda yadda).

But this is interesting: conway, about 30-40 miles away from little rock will be approximately 121,000 if growth patterns continue. Northwest Arkansas (Springdale with Tyson HQ, Bentonville with Wal-Mart, Fayetteville with U of A and science companies popping up, and Rogers with..uhhh...nice mountain scenery and rich peoples' homes) will merge into one metro (well, even moreso than now) to become bigger than that of Little Rock's.

Which will be effing sweet. too bad i'll be in my 40s by then. fudge. that's old.

[motonenterprises]

Interesting to see that Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson is not on the list.

[krazeeboi]

Well, the reason why I didn't list Greenville, Spartanburg, Greensboro, Winston-Salem, Durham, or Raleigh is because even though these cities are (now) the central cities of their own metro's, we still typically think of them in terms of the old metro standards. In that regard, the SC Upstate area, the NC Triad, and the NC Triangle all number over 1 million already. But if anyone wishes to consider any one of these metro's separately, then by all means please mention it.

[Spartan]

GSP is already at 1.2 million, so it has already passed the mark. Though Greenville alone could be on the list. The problem is that it would join up with Spartanburg and Anderson on the MSA level long before it reaches 1 million.

[motonenterprises]

Well, the reason why I didn't list Greenville, Spartanburg, Greensboro, Winston-Salem, Durham, or Raleigh is because even though these cities are (now) the central cities of their own metro's, we still typically think of them in terms of the old metro standards. In that regard, the SC Upstate area, the NC Triad, and the NC Triangle all number over 1 million already. But if anyone wishes to consider any one of these metro's separately, then by all means please mention it.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Good point. I didn't think of that at the time.

[The_sandlapper]

i voted little rock just because.

if we were all going against our home state biases, then our rankings would probably look somethink like this:

1. Sarasota 6.89%

2. Charleston 3.95%

3. El Paso 3.66%

4. Columbia 3.53%

5. Lexington 3.27%

6. Knoxville 3.22%

7. Little Rock 2.39%

8. Augusta 2.31%

9. Baton Rouge 2.22%

Little Rock's growth is pathetic.

[nashvol85]

67 Baton Rouge, LA 728731

68 El Paso, TX 713126

71 Columbia, SC 679456

77 Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice, FL 651862

79 Knoxville, TN 647170

80 Little Rock-North Little Rock, AR 636636

84 Charleston-North Charleston, SC 583434

93 Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC 515314

109 Lexington-Fayette, KY 424661

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Just some food for thought...if you look at the CMSA's of these cities, it changes the picture a little bit. The fastest growing county in Knoxville's MSA in the 90's was designated a micropolitan county and taken out of the MSA, but it remains in Knoxville's CMSA (Sevier county, you know, Gatlinburg?). If Knoxville continues to grow out, some of these places may be reabsorbed into the metro.

59 Knoxville-Sevierville-La Follette, TN 817,867 (CMSA)

60 Little Rock-North Little Rock-Pine Bluff, AR 813,160 (CMSA)

63 Baton Rouge-Pierre Part, LA 751,965 (CMSA)

67 Columbia-Newberry, SC 716,665 (CMSA)

68 El Paso, TX 713,126 (MSA)

72 Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice, FL 651,862 (MSA)

76 Lexington-Fayette-Frankfort-Richmond, KY 627,825 (CMSA)

80 Charleston-North Charleston, SC 583,434 (MSA)

93 Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC 515,314 (MSA)

I think cities like Knoxville, Little Rock, and Columbia are "more established" than some of the other cities on the list (Sarasota, Lexington, Augusta), so I think it's more likely that they could have sudden growth spurts that push them over the top (Knoxville and Little Rock are less than 200k away!)...jmo, of course.

[bobliocatt]

I think its more realistic that Sarasota or Fort Myers (not listed) will merge to form a single metro or CMSA with other neighborhing SW Florida booming metros (Tampa/St. Pete, Naples, Port Charlotte), long before these other CMSA's make it to one million. The growth along that coast is something most places will never see. If this happens, they'll most likely pass the million mark, by just combining their present day numbers.

[johnnydr87]

honestly, i don't quite understand what a CMSA, but pine bluff is like an hour away from little rock. You pass through farmland getting to Pine bluff.

Weird..

[krazeeboi]

According to vol. 65, no. 249 of the Federal Register of the Office of Management and Budget dated December 27, 2000, a combined statistical area, or CSA (I believe CMSA is an outdated designation, meaning a "consolidated metropolitan statistical area") is defined as a geographic entity consisting of two or more adjacent Core Based Statistical Areas, or CBSA's (these include metropolitan statistical areas and micropolitan statistical areas), with employment interchange measures at least 15. Pairs of CBSA's with employment interchange measures of at least 25 combine automatically. Pairs of CBSA's with employment interchange measures or at least 15, but less than 25, may combine if local opinion in both areas favors combination. An employment interchange measure is defined as a measure of ties between two adjacent entities. The employment interchange measure is the sum of the percentage of employed residents of the smaller entity who work in the larger entity and the percentage of employment in the smaller entity that is accounted for by workers who reside in the larger entity.

I believe this is the most current information. If not, someone please correct me.

[krazeeboi]

Interesting comment, also from the Federal Register's Dec. 27, 2000 issue:

"Twelve commenters expressed opposition to the potential combination of the Sarasota-Bradenton and Port Charlotte areas in Florida (which, according to the Review Committee

[teshadoh]

(I believe CMSA is an outdated designation, meaning a "consolidated metropolitan statistical area")

You are correct sir - CMSA term is dead.

[bobliocatt]

Interesting comment, also from the Federal Register's Dec. 27, 2000 issue:

"Twelve commenters expressed opposition to the potential combination of the Sarasota-Bradenton and Port Charlotte areas in Florida (which, according to the Review Committee

[nashvol85]

You are correct sir - CMSA term is dead.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Sorry about that...I don't keep up to date on that stuff.

[krazeeboi]

Interesting.  I had no idea a community had a choice in saying whether it wanted to be a single metro or not.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Not a metro, as in a metropolitan statistical area, but a combined statistical area. Those areas don't have as strong connections as metropolitan statistical areas. From what I see, CSA's usually consist of a metro and a micro or two metros.

[Brickell]

The thing about the SWFL area is that there's not a strong employment center anywhere in the region. Most of it from what I've seen is suburban in nature anyway. It's diffuse urbanization at best. A metro with no center so to speak.

[krazeeboi]

CISOAC syndrome...."Communities In Search Of A City"....LOL