Brightline Trains

[aent]

3 hours ago, gibby said:

Just to clarify, you think that accepting the $2.4bb for the Orlando-Tampa HSR line would have potentially left the State liable for an additional $4.8bb?

 

I don't want to misread, are you saying that accepting the $2.4bb for the Orlando-Tampa HSR line in 2011 would have led to a construction worker shortage?

 

Are you saying that there was an increase (or a wash) in construction jobs in Florida because the $2.4bb was rejected?

I think to further clarify our opinions, I think both jrs and myself (and jrs step in if you disagree with me so I don't talk for you too much) both were disappointed when the state of Florida rejected the HSR money. We both believed there was a high risk of a cost overrun. Our opinions were changed a bit by the turn of events after it was rejected, namely Brightline and how the other system from the same program has performed since then (California).

This has a bit of an analysis on the situation from back in 2011 (pre Brightline, and at the time, California's overbudgetness was estimated to be at only $45 billion, a 111% cost overrun instead of the $100 billion they're now approaching)... here's some highlights:

"The average capital cost overrun for passenger rail projects was 45 percent and cost overruns above 40 percent in fixed prices are common, especially for rail projects and overruns above 80 percent are not uncommon.7 Moreover, they found that capital cost overruns were pervasive, occurring in 9 out of 10 projects."

"If the Tampa to Orlando high-speed rail line experiences cost escalation typical of international high-speed rail projects, it will cost between $0.54 billion and $2.7 billion more than projected. Based on averages, most likely the overrun would be about $1.2 billion, all of which would be the responsibility of Florida taxpayers."

 

https://reason.org/wp-content/uploads/files/florida_high_speed_rail_analysis.pdf

[jrs2]

26 minutes ago, aent said:

I think to further clarify our opinions, I think both jrs and myself (and jrs step in if you disagree with me so I don't talk for you too much) both were disappointed when the state of Florida rejected the HSR money. We both believed there was a high risk of a cost overrun. Our opinions were changed a bit by the turn of events after it was rejected, namely Brightline and how the other system from the same program has performed since then (California).

This has a bit of an analysis on the situation from back in 2011 (pre Brightline, and at the time, California's overbudgetness was estimated to be at only $45 billion, a 111% cost overrun instead of the $100 billion they're now approaching)... here's some highlights:

"The average capital cost overrun for passenger rail projects was 45 percent and cost overruns above 40 percent in fixed prices are common, especially for rail projects and overruns above 80 percent are not uncommon.7 Moreover, they found that capital cost overruns were pervasive, occurring in 9 out of 10 projects."

"If the Tampa to Orlando high-speed rail line experiences cost escalation typical of international high-speed rail projects, it will cost between $0.54 billion and $2.7 billion more than projected. Based on averages, most likely the overrun would be about $1.2 billion, all of which would be the responsibility of Florida taxpayers."

 

https://reason.org/wp-content/uploads/files/florida_high_speed_rail_analysis.pdf

...and that's just cost overruns.  How about the part where if Florida has to stop the HSR from operating because of system failure, they would have to fork over the same amount of money they received and pay it back to the Fed?

So, all of gibby's construction workers that got their HSR jobs during the recession would make out; they would get to keep their earnings for building a failed system, but we the taxpayers would have to sit back and watch funds that would've gone elsewhere in the state go to the Fed, which is outlandish. Especially with a system who's WDW to Tampa leg was deemed "a dog" by pro rail Mica.  So, instead of paying the Fed the money back, the state would of course elect to pump more money into a failing system year after year and perhaps decade after decade just because they wanted to employ a few thousand construction workers during the recession from 2011-2013.

[gibby]

42 minutes ago, jrs2 said:

B.  You are being sarcastic.  No, I am not saying that.  What I am saying is that your argument for job loss is valid, but rejection of the HSR project doesn't mean that other jobs weren't created that those same construction workers could have shifted to instead.  Also, who said that all of those workers would've been from only Florida anyway for the HSR job?  Meaning those job numbers were inflated.  And on that note, Florida doesn't owe a duty to the rest of the US during a recession to accept Obama's HSR money so workers from other states can have jobs in Florida while Florida assumes all of the risk of system failure, does it?  That's my question to you.

C.   I made some calculations that I posted.  You read my post, didn't you?  You saw the numbers I posted.  Read them again and you'll get your answer because I'm not going to repeat myself again, except to state add in the Tri-rail modernization program that's been taking place since then; add it to the list of jobs I listed in my previous post.

Of course there were other government-funded construction jobs available during the same time period but Florida construction employment was extremely depressed in 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 and starting to recover in 2013.  We lost over 300,000 construction jobs in Florida between 2007 and 2011.  It's great that there were other projects during that time to employ those people but the Orlando-Tampa HSR project would have employed even more.  Calculating all of the other construction project employment figures during that time period is only relevant if there wasn't enough slack in the economy to employ enough people to build the HSR line.  My view is that the $2.4bb would have helped our economy between 2011-2015 and I think it's a pretty mainstream position.

[jrs2]

18 minutes ago, gibby said:

Of course there were other government-funded construction jobs available during the same time period but Florida construction employment was extremely depressed in 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 and starting to recover in 2013.  We lost over 300,000 construction jobs in Florida between 2007 and 2011.  It's great that there were other projects during that time to employ those people but the Orlando-Tampa HSR project would have employed even more.  Calculating all of the other construction project employment figures during that time period is only relevant if there wasn't enough slack in the economy to employ enough people to build the HSR line.  My view is that the $2.4bb would have helped our economy between 2011-2015 and I think it's a pretty mainstream position.

I acknowledge your point, but chances are that line was destined to fail for the reasons stated. 

So, is it justifiable to green light that project to employ realistically under 20k some of which are from out of state, which is a short term benefit from 2011-2013, when the potential burden on the state which would affect the years 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 and on and on is that more money is pumped into it just to keep it going?  Would I-4 Ultimate even be happening now if HSR was built then and subsequently become a money pit as predicted?  No way.  I-4 Ultimate was delayed several years already b/c the state didn't have the money.  And that includes other road projects in and around CFLA, Tampa, Jax, and SoFla.  What about Sunrail Phase 2?  The Deland station has already been placed on the back burner for lack of funding.  And the Phase 3 airport link, which we all want, still doesn't have funding.

You can't just judge it based on a 2 year benefit; you gotta balance that with a multi-year potential burden.

[IAmFloridaBorn]

8 hours ago, jrs2 said:

On the issues you presented, I preferred Tampa-Orlando because it would've strengthened the non-Sofla I-4 corridor population base as a more cohesive metropolitan unit, if you will.

In driving to Miami, IMO, "time" isn't the most important factor for me; rather, it's peace of mind.  And the $100 is going to be spent anyway in the form of wear and tear on your car, or the price of a rental with insurance for property damage, and then the difference of that price and $100, which would be maybe $20-40, would be the surcharge for being driven versus driving the route yourself and risking an accident or speeding ticket. 

But regarding the "time" factor, make sure you're surfing Waze when on the TNPK or I-95 and good luck.  Because, to get to Miami in 3 hours, you have to speed- alot.  It takes about 2.5 hours  just to get to West Palm Beach from Orlando; it's 165mi.  Miami is another 60-70 miles from that point and good luck maintaining 70+ MPH.  So the trip to Miami if you're lucky is more like 3.5-4 hrs.  People always underestimate just how far and how long that trip actually is, even myself.  I drove there 4 weeks ago and it seemed like it took forever.

Again, the problem with Tampa was that you'd get dumped off on the northern edge of downtown, with no transit options other than a bus.  Not by the convention center, mind you, or any arena or any theme park.  Busch is in BFE. 

With the Miami route, you've got Palm Beach as a stop, and can Uber it to City Place or Worth Ave or the beach.  With the Ft. Lauderdale stop, same deal with Las Olas, the Riverwalk, or the beach.  In Miami, you are downtown and have direct access to Metromover and Metrorail close by.  Brickell, AA Arena, the PAC, Biscayne- all connected with rail; including MIA via Metrorail ala the MIC and Trirail at the MIC.  What more would anyone need?  I'll answer that one myself:  a Metromover line to Miami Beach. 

I am excited as hec about Brightline because it in essence is our train and by connecting to Miami, it makes their transit system OUR transit system too because it is all integrated together and is now at our disposal.  That is exciting to me and adds a dynamic to Orlando it has never seen.  We just need a Sunrail link to integrate Sunrail into the overall system, and/or an east-west route to I-Drive/WDW, which may come with a later phase to Tampa.

You are absolutely correct about the commuting patterns between Tampa and Orlando.  But there's no rail integration in Tampa.  On the HSR issue, now that Tampa has built a consolidated car rental and remote parking facility south of the main TPA terminal near International Plaza, I can see a Phase 2 of Brightline connecting directly to it, which would be fantastic.  

While I agree Tampa has no transit sexyness, I think Rail connection between the two cities would create opportunity for those 'This is a gamble' projects that aren't being pushed.

Why can't something like SunRail go to Lakeland or Tampa? COmmuter rail goes 70 Miles In South FLorida. SunRail should go from Where it is now to Downtown Tampa IMO. With 2 stops in Lakeland and one in Winter Heaven.

[aent]

6 minutes ago, IAmFloridaBorn said:

While I agree Tampa has no transit sexyness, I think Rail connection between the two cities would create opportunity for those 'This is a gamble' projects that aren't being pushed.

Why can't something like SunRail go to Lakeland or Tampa? COmmuter rail goes 70 Miles In South FLorida. SunRail should go from Where it is now to Downtown Tampa IMO. With 2 stops in Lakeland and one in Winter Heaven.

The obvious reason is cost. We can't get it operating when people want it right now as is, and we can't get the original route built. I mean Sunrail is an example of why I prefer Brightline to build it... the airport extension started at $175 million and thus far its already increased to $250 million, just to connect an existing train system into an existing station building with an existing slot for it.

[IAmFloridaBorn]

2 minutes ago, aent said:

The obvious reason is cost. We can't get it operating when people want it right now as is, and we can't get the original route built. I mean Sunrail is an example of why I prefer Brightline to build it... the airport extension started at $175 million and thus far its already increased to $250 million, just to connect an existing train system into an existing station building with an existing slot for it.

How is the cost of expanding commuter rail line along new or already laid tracks more costly than building seperate new tracking for a more expensive system?

[aent]

Just now, IAmFloridaBorn said:

How is the cost of expanding commuter rail line along new or already laid tracks more costly than building seperate new tracking for a more expensive system?

Brightline simply has to keep the costs more under control to answer to its investors. When Sunrail is built, there is a lot of more important concerns then cost, such as making sure the required number of women and minority owned companies get contracts on the job, and... oh yeah, a real important one: Make sure the system doesn't work well enough to prevent it from cannibalizing the airport's rental car revenue, because that system brings in money, Sunrail is just an expense.

[IAmFloridaBorn]

Just now, aent said:

Brightline simply has to keep the costs more under control to answer to its investors. When Sunrail is built, there is a lot of more important concerns then cost, such as making sure the required number of women and minority owned companies get contracts on the job, and... oh yeah, a real important one: Make sure the system doesn't work well enough to prevent it from cannibalizing the airport's rental car revenue, because that system brings in money, Sunrail is just an expense.

I guess that is the reality of it. I would love to have a CalTran like service to Tampa.
And Heck the Front Runner runs 88 miles. I get it. Money. Brightline is Private but  wold be nice to have these regions connected like they should be already. 

[aent]

1 minute ago, IAmFloridaBorn said:

I guess that is the reality of it. I would love to have a CalTran like service to Tampa.
And Heck the Front Runner runs 88 miles. I get it. Money. Brightline is Private but  wold be nice to have these regions connected like they should be already. 

And its slowing happening. Its why I'm so pissed about maglev, much more so then Sunrail. Another big one with Sunrail's connection that is going to keep the politicians from wanting it to be done at a reasonable cost is the biggest reason I knew all the non-commuters to use Tri-Rail in South Florida: save on airport parking (and traffic). The time savings and hassle of avoiding airport parking is very significant to many people, and even the most anti-rail people down there saying Tri-Rail is a total waste still seemed to ask me to drop them off at the nearest Tri-Rail station so there car could stay at home, and they wouldn't sound unreasonable asking for the hour trip to the airport from where I lived.

Tri-Rail is also another prime example of why the government isn't good at running things: during the Great Recession, in 2009, ridership was at record highs, trains were frequently filling up, and the response was reductions in service because of the state budget problems. We were supposed to take on a whole new HSR system and the risk of cost overruns, when our existing state train system that was operating at capacity had a huge budget shortfall and was starting to make service cuts, with the threat of making huge cuts. With Brightline's structure, we likely would have instead saw an increase in service allowing even more ridership.

[IAmFloridaBorn]

16 minutes ago, aent said:

And its slowing happening. Its why I'm so pissed about maglev, much more so then Sunrail. Another big one with Sunrail's connection that is going to keep the politicians from wanting it to be done at a reasonable cost is the biggest reason I knew all the non-commuters to use Tri-Rail in South Florida: save on airport parking (and traffic). The time savings and hassle of avoiding airport parking is very significant to many people, and even the most anti-rail people down there saying Tri-Rail is a total waste still seemed to ask me to drop them off at the nearest Tri-Rail station so there car could stay at home, and they wouldn't sound unreasonable asking for the hour trip to the airport from where I lived.

Tri-Rail is also another prime example of why the government isn't good at running things: during the Great Recession, in 2009, ridership was at record highs, trains were frequently filling up, and the response was reductions in service because of the state budget problems. We were supposed to take on a whole new HSR system and the risk of cost overruns, when our existing state train system that was operating at capacity had a huge budget shortfall and was starting to make service cuts, with the threat of making huge cuts. With Brightline's structure, we likely would have instead saw an increase in service allowing even more ridership.

Good read! That opens my eyes a bit more!

 

I Dont see Brightline from Miami to Orlando being successful. Hope I'm wrong.

[jrs2]

54 minutes ago, IAmFloridaBorn said:

Good read! That opens my eyes a bit more!

 

I Dont see Brightline from Miami to Orlando being successful. Hope I'm wrong.

I think the biggest indicator of whether Brightline succeeds is to look at who is building it:  a private company versus a governmental entity that expects it to run in the red.  FEC expects it to run in the black.  

However...not sure how many know this but FEC is building a rail yard or intermodal center for freight in Orange along the spur they’re gonna build. So...maybe FEC is pulling another CSX with the exception that they’re paying for everything.

[aent]

2 hours ago, jrs2 said:

I think the biggest indicator of whether Brightline succeeds is to look at who is building it:  a private company versus a governmental entity that expects it to run in the red.  FEC expects it to run in the black.  

However...not sure how many know this but FEC is building a rail yard or intermodal center for freight in Orange along the spur they’re gonna build. So...maybe FEC is pulling another CSX with the exception that they’re paying for everything.

I've thought about that as well, but I feel like thats a super expensive way to go when Rick Scott probably would help them push it through without that... so many millions in passenger trains, stations, and fights for the right to do passenger service instead of rail on the lines.... along with over a billion dollars in speed upgrades to allow all the track to handle 100mph+ which isn't necessary for freight. I'm sure it goes into their analysis and where this system would be considered profitable though if they can attribute a significant portion of the new track cost to freight services.

I did mention this on here before, but was told no freight service was allowed on the new Cocoa-Orlando line, but I can't find anything to confirm or deny that online.

[WAJAS]

3 hours ago, aent said:

I've thought about that as well, but I feel like thats a super expensive way to go when Rick Scott probably would help them push it through without that... so many millions in passenger trains, stations, and fights for the right to do passenger service instead of rail on the lines.... along with over a billion dollars in speed upgrades to allow all the track to handle 100mph+ which isn't necessary for freight. I'm sure it goes into their analysis and where this system would be considered profitable though if they can attribute a significant portion of the new track cost to freight services.

I did mention this on here before, but was told no freight service was allowed on the new Cocoa-Orlando line, but I can't find anything to confirm or deny that online.

It seems another reason FEC might consider Brightline a success is how much it raises the worth of their land in South Florida. They are developing a HUGE mixuse complex in downtown Miami that will probably make the company a significant amount of dough.

[jrs2]

11 hours ago, aent said:

I've thought about that as well, but I feel like thats a super expensive way to go when Rick Scott probably would help them push it through without that... so many millions in passenger trains, stations, and fights for the right to do passenger service instead of rail on the lines.... along with over a billion dollars in speed upgrades to allow all the track to handle 100mph+ which isn't necessary for freight. I'm sure it goes into their analysis and where this system would be considered profitable though if they can attribute a significant portion of the new track cost to freight services.

I did mention this on here before, but was told no freight service was allowed on the new Cocoa-Orlando line, but I can't find anything to confirm or deny that online.

...the intermodal freight facility is being allotted for in the long range plans for the land just south of 528.  And I could've sworn I saw an article 1-2 years ago that mentioned it as well...  But you are correct in that all that investment in those stations  would negate this theory- in the end it's probably a multi-faceted investment with freight, passenger rail, and real estate as WAJAS98 pointed out as well.

[cwetteland]

How realistic is the Hyperloop-One link to Miami?  What will that do to Brightline? 

My understanding is that it will be for passenger and freight.  The  freight pods  open at the top and a  shipping container is lowered in by crane.  The path basically follows US 27 and wraps around the west side of Lake Okeechobee.  It'd go to the Port of Miami.

[aent]

10 hours ago, cwetteland said:

How realistic is the Hyperloop-One link to Miami?  What will that do to Brightline? 

My understanding is that it will be for passenger and freight.  The  freight pods  open at the top and a  shipping container is lowered in by crane.  The path basically follows US 27 and wraps around the west side of Lake Okeechobee.  It'd go to the Port of Miami.

At this point, its  soooo far off, that it probably shouldn't even be considered. Nobody knows the complications or costs or any of the details yet. Plus, self driving cars seem closer and seem to be getting more investment at this point. If we can convert all of our vehicles to self driving, we should be able to massively increase the speeds of our roads without building all new infrastructure.

[jrs2]

On 7/1/2018 at 9:17 AM, cwetteland said:

How realistic is the Hyperloop-One link to Miami?  What will that do to Brightline? 

My understanding is that it will be for passenger and freight.  The  freight pods  open at the top and a  shipping container is lowered in by crane.  The path basically follows US 27 and wraps around the west side of Lake Okeechobee.  It'd go to the Port of Miami.

interesting.  my thoughts are that if Hyperloop One is successful in transporting containers from the Port of Miami container terminal, then that could kill other ports like Port Canaveral, etc., in northern Florida.  But, they would need a large intermodal logistics center and that would be in Orlando, so...

[I am Reality]

Article re:  Development around Brightline stations in S. FL

Bring it downtown

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/transportation/fl-reg-brightline-stations-redevelopment-20180703-story.html

[Dale]

On ‎6‎/‎28‎/‎2018 at 8:49 PM, IAmFloridaBorn said:

Good read! That opens my eyes a bit more!

 

I Dont see Brightline from Miami to Orlando being successful. Hope I'm wrong.

Reportedly, it's exceeding all expectations from WPB to Miami.

When Brightline Orlando is done - and if SunRail is built to the airport - there will not be another experience in the Western Hemisphere like Orlando's,  fly in, zip downtown, zip to Tampa, zip to Miami, etc.

[prahaboheme]

21 hours ago, Dale said:

Reportedly, it's exceeding all expectations from WPB to Miami.

When Brightline Orlando is done - and if SunRail is built to the airport - there will not be another experience in the Western Hemisphere like Orlando's,  fly in, zip downtown, zip to Tampa, zip to Miami, etc.

I mentioned this somewhere years ago, somewhere on the forum.  If fully realized, the only comparison I can draw would be Schiphol airport in Amsterdam.  

[Dale]

15 minutes ago, prahaboheme said:

I mentioned this somewhere years ago, somewhere on the forum.  If fully realized, the only comparison I can draw would be Schiphol airport in Amsterdam.  

Yep, or Frankfurt.

[IAmFloridaBorn]

22 hours ago, Dale said:

Reportedly, it's exceeding all expectations from WPB to Miami.

When Brightline Orlando is done - and if SunRail is built to the airport - there will not be another experience in the Western Hemisphere like Orlando's,  fly in, zip downtown, zip to Tampa, zip to Miami, etc.

Yet won't connect to the tourist area like it needs to. . AT over $200, sounds like LRT expansion at grade as opposed to CRT. If so I think it's a bad move .

[dcluley98]

Baltimore BWI station is "kinda" the first HSR/Communter Rail/Airport connection in North America. I say "Kinda" because it is on airport property but you still have to take a bus connector to get to the airport terminal. 

 

[Dale]

6 hours ago, IAmFloridaBorn said:

Yet won't connect to the tourist area like it needs to. . AT over $200, sounds like LRT expansion at grade as opposed to CRT. If so I think it's a bad move .

I'm afraid I don't understand. You're expecting light rail from Orlando to Miami ?