Brightline Trains

[aent]

25 minutes ago, HankStrong said:

It will be a crying shame if there isn't eventually a stop in Cocoa, simply for the port to transport to it.

Unfortunately Brightline seems less likely to consider that and stops outside of South Florida. My understanding is the thinking is once the train is at or close to its terminus, adding a few more stops won't actually generally effect the transit time to Orlando. South of the WPB stop, its limited to 80mph. But stopping the train while it could be travelling 125mph from West Palm to Cocoa will introduce a much bigger, and less beneficial delay. That seems to be the strategy: several stops in each major metro, but nothing between them. They've generally been quiet about the possibility of a Lakeland stop. I'm curious if they're considering it or they want faster speeds to Tampa and to avoid it.

[dcluley98]

Also, apparently "rich people that can afford tickets" is a big driver of where the stops will be. 

[jrs2]

37 minutes ago, dcluley98 said:

Also, apparently "rich people that can afford tickets" is a big driver of where the stops will be. 

I can see that.  

[AmIReal]

32 minutes ago, dcluley98 said:

Also, apparently "rich people that can afford tickets" is a big driver of where the stops will be. 

That seems to be the rational for where the stations are, however "In June, the average ticket fare systemwide was $15.12, according to a company financial report."

[spenser1058]

1 minute ago, AmIReal said:

That seems to be the rational for where the stations are, however "In June, the average ticket fare systemwide was $15.12, according to a company financial report."

It’s all rather moot. Rich people would rather just fly to Herndon in their Gulfstreams. Call me when this makes a profit.

[jrs2]

17 minutes ago, spenser1058 said:

It’s all rather moot. Rich people would rather just fly to Herndon in their Gulfstreams. Call me when this makes a profit.

what kind of ticket price per head would be needed for something like this to make a profit do you think?

[dcluley98]

I don't know. If I was a rich person, I think I would like to take the train over bothering to get to the airport and go through security. 

Also, I don't disagree that it's a valid reason to locate stations there. It makes a lot of sense. I just don't think that they should be trying to by putting a stop at every premium country club type area in South Florida because it defeats the purpose of the Brightline. (but then, they want to make a profit, so they are forced to seek paying customers). Kind of a catch-22 for the privatized version of this thing, but then, would it even happen if it was still public? Who knows? 

I was hoping it would go to Port of Miami, but stopping in Aventura and Boca makes little sense to me other than a cash grab and trying to develop around the stations. 

[jrs2]

12 minutes ago, dcluley98 said:

I don't know. If I was a rich person, I think I would like to take the train over bothering to get to the airport and go through security. 

Also, I don't disagree that it's a valid reason to locate stations there. It makes a lot of sense. I just don't think that they should be trying to by putting a stop at every premium country club type area in South Florida because it defeats the purpose of the Brightline. (but then, they want to make a profit, so they are forced to seek paying customers). Kind of a catch-22 for the privatized version of this thing, but then, would it even happen if it was still public? Who knows? 

I was hoping it would go to Port of Miami, but stopping in Aventura and Boca makes little sense to me other than a cash grab and trying to develop around the stations. 

yep.  the real estate potential...  is the Aventura stop near the mall?

[spenser1058]

2 hours ago, jrs2 said:

what kind of ticket price per head would be needed for something like this to make a profit do you think?

I’ll be honest - I don’t think it can. There are places with a lot more train culture than the US (Europe, Japan, China) that haven’t cracked the code and we certainly haven’t.

Read what George Will thinks of trains sometime or a John Grisham novel about the most important purchase when a lawyer hits the big time.

Add to it the fact this whole project was never about trains in the first place.

I’m also waiting for someone here to tell me how Virgin is supposed to be the savior when the UK government kicked them off their two major passenger rail lines.

But, hey, it’s always possible I just don’t get it.

dcluley,, general aviation  security is nothing like commercial TSA.

Edited August 13, 2019 by spenser1058

[codypet]

14 hours ago, spenser1058 said:

I’m also waiting for someone here to tell me how Virgin is supposed to be the savior when the UK government kicked them off their two major passenger rail lines.

Name recognition

[jliv]

I’ll be honest - I don’t think it can. There are places with a lot more train culture than the US (Europe, Japan, China) that haven’t cracked the code and we certainly haven’t.
Read what George Will thinks of trains sometime or a John Grisham novel about the most important purchase when a lawyer hits the big time.
Add to it the fact this whole project was never about trains in the first place.
I’m also waiting for someone here to tell me how Virgin is supposed to be the savior when the UK government kicked them off their two major passenger rail lines.
But, hey, it’s always possible I just don’t get it.
dcluley,, general aviation  security is nothing like commercial TSA.

Virgin was brought in to boost the brand while they were trying to raise cash. It apparently worked! (They raised close to $3 Billion on the muni bond markets after the brand change).



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[shardoon]

Richard Branson wants to feed his new cruise line with passengers from Orlando. 

[HankStrong]

I can't figure out why anyone is poo-pooing this.

[spenser1058]

Because in every major decision behind this whole thing, the least important piece motivating it is the actual train service. I don’t see how that ends well. 

Given the primary partner was promoted because of their vast experience and success in running British trains, isn’t it a bit odd that the British government tossed them? 

Of course not. Because no one actually cares that this works, we just have a shiny new toy to go ga-ga over, right? That’s why I’m poo-pooing this. Some of us have experience cleaning up the messes left behind by flim-flam men.

And a lot of money is being spent. If it ends badly, do you think that will leave a good taste in the mouth of the public for legitimate transit projects next time?

Remember that when a vote comes up for SunRail or Amtrak funding down the road. 

 

 

 

[HankStrong]

I'd prefer to let it fail before I call it a failure.

[Urban25]

20 hours ago, aent said:

Unfortunately Brightline seems less likely to consider that and stops outside of South Florida. My understanding is the thinking is once the train is at or close to its terminus, adding a few more stops won't actually generally effect the transit time to Orlando. South of the WPB stop, its limited to 80mph. But stopping the train while it could be travelling 125mph from West Palm to Cocoa will introduce a much bigger, and less beneficial delay. That seems to be the strategy: several stops in each major metro, but nothing between them. They've generally been quiet about the possibility of a Lakeland stop. I'm curious if they're considering it or they want faster speeds to Tampa and to avoid it.

Lol why would they stop in Lakeland???? they don’t even have a real stop in Orlando. If they make a stop in Lakeland that’ll just be a wasted stop that could have been an extra one for orlando convention area or even the port area. There’s nothing in Lakeland lol

[AmIReal]

For those that didn't follow the Virgin Train saga in GB, here is a nice little excerpt from a Jacobin (granted a sketchy source, but this was spot on).

https://jacobinmag.com/2019/05/nationalization-rail-system-corbyn-richard-branson

Ok, a source with a little more decorum then...

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/apr/10/stagecoach-barred-from-rail-franchise-bids-over-pensions-row

It appears Branson loves owning trains and since his homeland has banished him he is seeking out other opportunities- the US and potentially Spain.

1 hour ago, Urban25 said:

There’s nothing in Lakeland lol

But it has always punched well above its weight politically speaking and, I'm sure, this decision was made as a political favor.

[dcluley98]

My opinion, (and I stress opinion), is that this company is dooming the actual trains portion of the whole thing to fail, while separating the real estate portion in a different entity that is destined to succeed. I believe that the state will eventually have to take over operation of this system when the train-running entity goes bankrupt from continued operating losses and fleeces their creditors who are foolish enough to invest in the wrong side. 

But, hey, I guess we will see. 

[AmIReal]

10 minutes ago, dcluley98 said:

My opinion, (and I stress opinion), is that this company is dooming the actual trains portion of the whole thing to fail, while separating the real estate portion in a different entity that is destined to succeed. I believe that the state will eventually have to take over operation of this system when the train-running entity goes bankrupt from continued operating losses and fleeces their creditors who are foolish enough to invest in the wrong side. 

But, hey, I guess we will see. 

Other than the investors getting fleeced, would this outcome be a bad thing...?

[Urban Mail Carrier]

38 minutes ago, dcluley98 said:

My opinion, (and I stress opinion), is that this company is dooming the actual trains portion of the whole thing to fail, while separating the real estate portion in a different entity that is destined to succeed. I believe that the state will eventually have to take over operation of this system when the train-running entity goes bankrupt from continued operating losses and fleeces their creditors who are foolish enough to invest in the wrong side. 

But, hey, I guess we will see. 

I thought the same thing. If Virgin is not successful then Sunrail can end up buying the Orlando area rails for a bargain price.  We shall see.

[gibby]

Couldn't they just have a separate Disney train that blows past the OCCC stop and goes straight to/from Disney?  It could even have its own platform if necessary.  The normal train from Miami could stop at OCCC after the airport and then head straight to Tampa.

[shardoon]

1 hour ago, gibby said:

Couldn't they just have a separate Disney train that blows past the OCCC stop and goes straight to/from Disney?  It could even have its own platform if necessary.  The normal train from Miami could stop at OCCC after the airport and then head straight to Tampa.

They could..... but Disney wants to have their cake and eat it too. 

[dcluley98]

From my understanding there are going to be multiple trains, some with express, and some that stop at each station. For instance probably a direct train from Miami to OIA and from OIA to Disney or whatever Tampa main stop is, but additional trains that run and stop at each interstitial station. I think that this limits options, however on schedule for either or. 

Edited August 14, 2019 by dcluley98

[aent]

On 8/12/2019 at 5:55 PM, dcluley98 said:

I was hoping it would go to Port of Miami, but stopping in Aventura and Boca makes little sense to me other than a cash grab and trying to develop around the stations. 

Except if you look at Tri Rail numbers, Boca station is top numbers on that system. There clearly is interest there. And the area is upper class and business use, so its really ideal customers. Tri rail's made is clear Boca people are willing to travel to Miami, WPB, and probably Orlando by train, so why not try to take that business?

Also, the vast majority of development occurs, needless to say, without a train station. The train station is supposed to increase the value of the real estate, to help make the numbers work better, but if Virgin Trains plans for the train system to fail, why in the world would the real estate be worth more by having a train? Whats the purpose of spending billions of dollars on track improvements and train stations, when realistically, much of the real estate where they've built stations thus far, they already owned and could have developed, without wasting money on a train station and track? 

And why have they already paid GOAA many millions of dollars in rent for space at the airport, where they own no land in the area, and at this point, it appears unlikely they're going to get a great real estate deal in Orlando, when, if they planned for the train to fail, they could have just ended with the South Florida phase? Its, again, a crapton of money they're throwing out there, with seemingly no improvement to their real estate holdings, by expanding to Orlando.

On 8/12/2019 at 6:02 PM, spenser1058 said:

dcluley,, general aviation  security is nothing like commercial TSA.

yeah, but the vast majority of "the rich" are not that rich where they're going to charter a flight instead of take a luxury train or luxury car on this trip. For most of the rich, if they fly, they're going through TSA. Its a very small group of people who do not.

9 hours ago, HankStrong said:

I can't figure out why anyone is poo-pooing this.

I see a few reasons:

1) NIMBYs - they don't want anything to change from the status quo, have no interest in trains, so thats the end of story

2) Those scared of a private train succeeding - if this succeeds, I (and many others) think this will really change the odds of tons of new transit systems being built. If Florida can have a private company like Virgin Trains come in, fully build and operate the system at no cost to taxpayers, why should we be passing a 1% transportation sales tax hike to try to build a local, smaller train, that historically, hasn't performed as well in most areas? Politicians, and much of the left that wants the government to operate these systems and doesn't want them to be privately owned and operated, have much to lose if this system proves itself.

3) Those who want it to be built for the poor - On the same note as above, there is almost no chance of duplicate train routes being built due to the difficulty of the ROW. If Virgin Trains builds the only train connecting South to Central Florida, its apparent they're doing it mainly for the middle and upper class, as those will be the most profitable, while much of the transit built  by government funds is typically targeted at the lower class. As we see from the stop locations, they aren't going to be convenient to the lower class, and Virgin isn't interested in building the only train system for them.

9 hours ago, spenser1058 said:

Because in every major decision behind this whole thing, the least important piece motivating it is the actual train service. I don’t see how that ends well. 

Given the primary partner was promoted because of their vast experience and success in running British trains, isn’t it a bit odd that the British government tossed them? 

Of course not. Because no one actually cares that this works, we just have a shiny new toy to go ga-ga over, right? That’s why I’m poo-pooing this. Some of us have experience cleaning up the messes left behind by flim-flam men.

And a lot of money is being spent. If it ends badly, do you think that will leave a good taste in the mouth of the public for legitimate transit projects next time?

Remember that when a vote comes up for SunRail or Amtrak funding down the road. 

Obviously the situation in Britain is a bit different - Virgin only operated it but didn't own the system. A contract simply ended. I don't think thats really a comparable. Do you have any evidence that privately run transit systems are more likely to fail than public ones?

And its not tax dollars. Infact, if this fails, it can be pointed to as some sort of proof (which I'll disagree with, but I'm sure politicians will try) that we can't let the private system build transportation - thats a job for the government. No tax dollars will be lost in this project - unlike any Sunrail or Amtrak failure.

8 hours ago, Urban25 said:

Lol why would they stop in Lakeland???? they don’t even have a real stop in Orlando. If they make a stop in Lakeland that’ll just be a wasted stop that could have been an extra one for orlando convention area or even the port area. There’s nothing in Lakeland lol

I was saying that more in the sense that I haven't heard anything about it from them -- Lakeland was one of the stops on the government HSR plans along this same route, so many assumed Virgin would copy it.

 

6 hours ago, Urban Mail Carrier said:

I thought the same thing. If Virgin is not successful then Sunrail can end up buying the Orlando area rails for a bargain price.  We shall see.

Yup, strongly agree with this. I wish people saw the Globalvia proposal for light rail/maglev this way when that came around. Even if they were right that it was a guaranteed failure, it was still an opportunity for Orlando to get bargain infrastructure if we planned to build a light rail system anyways, as we seem to be saying.

[dcluley98]

Aent. You and I do not disagree. The project as a whole is going to make money. They wouldn't be doing it if it wasn't. The thing I am seeing is a separation of the entities to cordon off the money made to one section and keep it and let the other side with losses perhaps fail and need to be "rescued".  It's like a loss-leader or door-buster strategy in product marketing, but with a service instead. The thing is, if the trains side does fail or the private entity decides that it will not take the loss on that side to justify the profit on the other side, then the maintenance of service itself is quite a bit different than the 50" flat-screen or Furby. . . .It is a service that is expected and perhaps the state will need to try to maintain given the investment involved in the tracking and stations and expectations. . . 

A lot less black and white than it seems. 

I'm just an internet prophet though, so could turn out different. My crystal ball needs a new battery. 

Edited August 14, 2019 by dcluley98