Brightline Trains

[I am Reality]

Imagine if Penn Station had been built at La Guardia.  

Stupid, right? 

That's Orlando.

[jrs2]

Man, I read some really good posts by all you guys on this subject.  I pessimistically agree about OBX, in fact, when they first proposed it and detailed the extent of the rail improvements, that was the first thing that I suspected, although, I was hoping they wanted to go all the way with CRT.

Personalli, I feel Brightline is a major asset for the State in that it will project to tourists that Miami and Orlando trips are more practical now than before.  I did, I said tourists.  But, I know businessmen that go back and forth between Miami and Orlando fairly infrequently, and they are awaiting Brightline to begin operations.

The Sunrail airport link issue:  Buddy vs Scott appointees...  Dunno the answer.  But I believe there is truth on both sides.

[aent]

7 hours ago, I am Reality said:

I would be perfectly fine if it is never built.  I don't feel obligated to support every project.   If it's not in our best interest, then why support it?  Another project with a more favorable route may come along someday.

I am not so desperate for just anything.  I said the same thing about SunRail.  In the case of SunRail, I always said:  If they weren't going to build it the right way, it could set local rail transit back decades.  No one wanted an antiquated system that goes no where.  Low ridership will kill future expansion.  

As I understand it, the state approved the Brightline route, gave land, etc.  They could have done more. 

Although I know this point does nothing to change your point, just so we're factually accurate, the state did not give Brightline any land. They negotiated a lease with CFX and GOAA (at quite a pretty penny) and they own the rest of the land on their entire route. Their preference has been to buy the land for their routes and stations, except where it wasn't feasible.

And with that said, if Sunrail was going through the tourist areas, I think they'd have looked at downtown more closely, but its not, and even if it was, what route would they seriously be able to take to get to their land on I-95? A massive amount of eminent domain to build a rail project in this day and age is just NEVER going to happen (we see the opposition to just having more, faster trains on the existing track). SR 408 and SR 50 have no available ROW to spare AFAIK. All I'm saying is we should be realistic. I just can't envision a future where someone would propose a no-tax-dollar route (or even one funded by taxpayers) that would choose the low ridership downtown alternative, at likely a much higher cost due to massive amounts of eminent domain.

I mean, realistically, what real proposal does anyone have on how to get downtown from I-95 with our existing routes? (without passing by the airport)

I do think in general our local leadership has really failed us in regards to transportation in general. Our roads generally don't connect, traffic lights are seemingly not synchronized literally anywhere in the entire county to optimize flow, and I-4's expansion should have been started 20 years ago. I didn't see the city or the county fight for literally a free maglev system that would connect the airport to Sunrail and to the tourist area, making the system they did fight for make some sort of sense, a deal literally so good that any other city would literally kill for what we had offered to us. I might even agree with you on that Sunrail was a mistake (and to my recollection, John Mica, before Sunrail, said we should do OBX first because it had a much, much cheaper cost per mile/station, had a much faster build time, and thus a better ROI, obviously CSX had other ideas in mind that got pushed ahead)

[WAJAS]

3 hours ago, aent said:

Although I know this point does nothing to change your point, just so we're factually accurate, the state did not give Brightline any land. They negotiated a lease with CFX and GOAA (at quite a pretty penny) and they own the rest of the land on their entire route. Their preference has been to buy the land for their routes and stations, except where it wasn't feasible.

And with that said, if Sunrail was going through the tourist areas, I think they'd have looked at downtown more closely, but its not, and even if it was, what route would they seriously be able to take to get to their land on I-95? A massive amount of eminent domain to build a rail project in this day and age is just NEVER going to happen (we see the opposition to just having more, faster trains on the existing track). SR 408 and SR 50 have no available ROW to spare AFAIK. All I'm saying is we should be realistic. I just can't envision a future where someone would propose a no-tax-dollar route (or even one funded by taxpayers) that would choose the low ridership downtown alternative, at likely a much higher cost due to massive amounts of eminent domain.

I mean, realistically, what real proposal does anyone have on how to get downtown from I-95 with our existing routes? (without passing by the airport)

I do think in general our local leadership has really failed us in regards to transportation in general. Our roads generally don't connect, traffic lights are seemingly not synchronized literally anywhere in the entire county to optimize flow, and I-4's expansion should have been started 20 years ago. I didn't see the city or the county fight for literally a free maglev system that would connect the airport to Sunrail and to the tourist area, making the system they did fight for make some sort of sense, a deal literally so good that any other city would literally kill for what we had offered to us. I might even agree with you on that Sunrail was a mistake (and to my recollection, John Mica, before Sunrail, said we should do OBX first because it had a much, much cheaper cost per mile/station, had a much faster build time, and thus a better ROI, obviously CSX had other ideas in mind that got pushed ahead)

The ROW problem isn’t a problem. Many parts of I-4 still have ROW in the center that Brightline could use. The Sunrail tracks could also double as Brightline tracks if they triple track it through downtown. It’s what they’re doing in Miami anyhow.  Both options connect downtown to their 528 ROW.

 

OBX was more than likely pushed by the owners of the line to get upgrades on it, but that doesn’t change the fact that that track goes through the downtown areas of many Central Florida cities. The routes better than SunRail in that sense. I’d consider it a good run for Phase 4.

[aent]

6 minutes ago, WAJAS98 said:

The ROW problem isn’t a problem. Many parts of I-4 still have ROW in the center that Brightline could use. The Sunrail tracks could also double as Brightline tracks if they triple track it through downtown. It’s what they’re doing in Miami anyhow.  Both options connect downtown to their 528 ROW.

so you are proposing the path to downtown for Brightline would literally go past the airport on 528 without stopping, all the way to i-4, then turn north/back east and travel back to get to downtown? seems like a very strange route that would hurt travel time quite a bit

[I am Reality]

I understand what you are saying.  You obviously make some very good points.  I am sure you are right.

My point on both Brightline and SunRail are somewhat different.  

First, every urban area in the U.S. consists of expensive, developed land.

Every urban area in the U.S. is surrounded by developed, albeit somewhat less expensive, suburbs.

Every large city in the U.S. - at one time in their history - was (1) young enough; (2) growIng fast enough, and; and (3) urbanized/dense enough to recognize the need for rail transit and for setting aside land for rail.  At that point in time, land acquisition would have been nonetheless expensive, tunneling would be crazy-expensive, and eminent domain would have been burdensome.  That would be true for literally every large city in the U.S.  Some cities reached that point 100 years ago.  Others much more recently.  Orlando should have reached that point 20-25 years years ago.

What Orlando is going through is not, in any manner, unique.

Other large cities, despite the difficulties and the huge costs, have risen to the challenge.

Why is Orlando "caught" in this situation?   Local government insisted on using an established route for freight to move local commuters around.  That does not cut it.  People are not freight.  We were never given real routes that go to real places. 

Orlando will have the same crapty trains and the same general north-south route (missing all the important employment centers) in 100 years that we have now.  It's baked into the cake already.  It is a forever thing. 

As for Brightline, the local and state government could not even get a private-company to come downtown.  We have already seen where government got us. Now we know we can't count on private industry either.

If not now, when?  When the cost is even higher?  Probably not even then.

Orlando is already largely decentralized (probably more so than any other U.S. city).  When they agreed to the OIA Brightline station, our government leaders really  threw up the surrender flags.  They gave away any last hope for centralization.   They built our freaking transit hub outside of the city. That is just crazy.  

A downtown Brightline station would be more important to Orlando than to either Tampa or Miami.  

But oh well.

I would think anyone on a website called "UrbanPlanet" would have a problem with what is happening here.  Brightline is the opposite of urban development.  It is literally pushing people AWAY from downtown.  

 

 

 

[codypet]

There's a way for the two train systems to complete their link and not create any unusual doubling back by the trains.   My understanding that its currently the preferred plan.

[gibby]

45 minutes ago, codypet said:

There's a way for the two train systems to complete their link and not create any unusual doubling back by the trains.   My understanding that its currently the preferred plan.

Any idea why it would cost $250mm for Sunrail to connect?  The entire southern expansion was about $150mm I think, including stations.  Thanks.

[jrs2]

28 minutes ago, gibby said:

Any idea why it would cost $250mm for Sunrail to connect?  The entire southern expansion was about $150mm I think, including stations.  Thanks.

because they want to milk it for all they can.  it's bullsh!t.  The City owns OUC more or less per prior posts, and The City would benefit, but, the money won't come from The City, it will come from the State and Fed.  If I was mayor and I was concerned about the bottom line every month, I would probably do the same thing.  But, the flip side to that coin is that it keeps tourists from coming downtown via rail, and The City loses out on tourist dollars downtown.  The City owns Universal's land and parts of I-Drive; they don't care b/c they don't need it to come downtown.  And besides, the city limits include OIA.

[aent]

52 minutes ago, jrs2 said:

because they want to milk it for all they can.  it's bullsh!t.  The City owns OUC more or less per prior posts, and The City would benefit, but, the money won't come from The City, it will come from the State and Fed.  If I was mayor and I was concerned about the bottom line every month, I would probably do the same thing.  But, the flip side to that coin is that it keeps tourists from coming downtown via rail, and The City loses out on tourist dollars downtown.  The City owns Universal's land and parts of I-Drive; they don't care b/c they don't need it to come downtown.  And besides, the city limits include OIA.

Interestingly, the new Universal land is NOT within the city limits of Orlando and is instead unincorporated Orange County. I do wonder if it will be annexed or if that possibly could change any tune about this issue?

The thing that really bothers me is when the airport was talking about rejecting maglev, and getting the airport connected with Sunrail, nobody on the City said "hey, we want that, its a great deal and will provide the missing link to make Sunrail much more useful with a rail link to the airport (even if it requires one transfer). Infact, it appears that even though the state has an approval process of the GOAA board, the land and the airport is OWNED by the CITY. And to me, its pretty freaking clear that the CITY leadership (ya know, the "pro-transit" democrats) had zero interest in getting maglev done, and have chosen to make it difficult to get a Sunrail extension to the airport done.

Edited August 6, 2018 by aent

[HankStrong]

I'm about as pro-rail as anyone you'll find.  I've ridden on the amazing Shanghai maglev to Pudong Airport and nearly died from sheer enjoyment.

I still say that maglev for that route is a massive waste of that technology.  The first phase with 14 miles and a handful of stops is silly for that tech.  The second phase of 5 miles with a couple of stops was worse.  The third phase of 20 miles with a handful of stations was the least silly, but still not what this tech is built for.  The unnumbered phase where it became a trolley for I-Drive and the convention center was the silliest use of that tech I've ever heard of.

• Orlando to Tampa? YES!
• Orlando to Miami? YES!
• Miami to Jax? YES!
• Orlando to Jax? YES!
• Anywhere far to anywhere far? YES!

Roughly 40 miles with a couple dozen stops? NO!

 

[codypet]

1 hour ago, gibby said:

Any idea why it would cost $250mm for Sunrail to connect?  The entire southern expansion was about $150mm I think, including stations.  Thanks.

The OUC line is not a mainline track but would have to be brought up to those standards.

28 minutes ago, aent said:

Interestingly, the new Universal land is NOT within the city limits of Orlando and is instead unincorporated Orange County. I do wonder if it will be annexed or if that possibly could change any tune about this issue?

The thing that really bothers me is when the airport was talking about rejecting maglev, and getting the airport connected with Sunrail, nobody on the City said "hey, we want that, its a great deal and will provide the missing link to make Sunrail much more useful with a rail link to the airport (even if it requires one transfer). Infact, it appears that even though the state has an approval process of the GOAA board, the land and the airport is OWNED by the CITY. And to me, its pretty freaking clear that the CITY leadership (ya know, the "pro-transit" democrats) had zero interest in getting maglev done, and have chosen to make it difficult to get a Sunrail extension to the airport done.

The Maglev guy has had a history of over promising and under delivering.  I don't blame the airport for not thinking the proposal had legs.

[gibby]

1 minute ago, codypet said:

The OUC line is not a mainline track but would have to be brought up to those standards.

Wasn't double tracking the CSX line for the southern expansion included in the $150mm cost?

[I am Reality]

It's great that people want to propose routes and ROWs.  I did it just the other day with my proposal for a UCF route.

But the more I think about it . . . it's not our problem to solve.  

If our leaders are serious about helping us (and releasing some of the pressure from 70-80 million annual visitors on our roads), they will find a way.  

Other cities have found a way to do it.  It's not rocket science.  Just get it done.  No excuses.  

If our leaders don't really want mass transit, they need to stop this charade of using half-measures.  It is doing more harm than good. 

The cost will only go up every day they wait.  And the problem will only get worse.  What are they waiting for?  My guess . . . they have no comprehensive transit plan, no idea where to add rail, and no understanding of how to funnel development into designated areas to control sprawl.

Edited August 6, 2018 by I am Reality

[codypet]

39 minutes ago, gibby said:

Wasn't double tracking the CSX line for the southern expansion included in the $150mm cost?

There's more it than just tracks.  Also its one thing to add a second track to an area that once had 2 tracks, a whole other cost to add a second track where there never was one.

[HankStrong]

54 minutes ago, codypet said:

The Maglev guy has had a history of over promising and under delivering.  I don't blame the airport for not thinking the proposal had legs.

This.  Anyone curious should read the Old Dominion tale and also take note that ZERO of the projects have come online after that.

[spenser1058]

Tony Morris - Failing at Maglev since 1994 in beautiful downtown Oak Hill FL (a suburb of Greater Mims!)

[jrs2]

2 hours ago, aent said:

Interestingly, the new Universal land is NOT within the city limits of Orlando and is instead unincorporated Orange County. I do wonder if it will be annexed or if that possibly could change any tune about this issue?

The thing that really bothers me is when the airport was talking about rejecting maglev, and getting the airport connected with Sunrail, nobody on the City said "hey, we want that, its a great deal and will provide the missing link to make Sunrail much more useful with a rail link to the airport (even if it requires one transfer). Infact, it appears that even though the state has an approval process of the GOAA board, the land and the airport is OWNED by the CITY. And to me, its pretty freaking clear that the CITY leadership (ya know, the "pro-transit" democrats) had zero interest in getting maglev done, and have chosen to make it difficult to get a Sunrail extension to the airport done.

I think it goes back to what a former OPD officer told me about 20 years ago, namely, that Mears has had City officials in their hip pocket since the 1960's.  I think that's what it's really all about.  Mears didn't want Maglev for obvious reasons.

1 hour ago, spenser1058 said:

Tony Morris - Failing at Maglev since 1994 in beautiful downtown Oak Hill FL (a suburb of Greater Mims!)

that sounds like a slogan...

[jrs2]

2 hours ago, I am Reality said:

It's great that people want to propose routes and ROWs.  I did it just the other day with my proposal for a UCF route.

But the more I think about it . . . it's not our problem to solve.  

If our leaders are serious about helping us (and releasing some of the pressure from 70-80 million annual visitors on our roads), they will find a way.  

Other cities have found a way to do it.  It's not rocket science.  Just get it done.  No excuses.  

If our leaders don't really want mass transit, they need to stop this charade of using half-measures.  It is doing more harm than good. 

The cost will only go up every day they wait.  And the problem will only get worse.  What are they waiting for?  My guess . . . they have no comprehensive transit plan, no idea where to add rail, and no understanding of how to funnel development into designated areas to control sprawl.

all prior arguments about CA's HSR aside, I believe Sunrail was primarily to benefit CSX's other tracks and their new intermodal center, and Sunrail was the secondary benefit to the community.

[spenser1058]

Or, it could be that. like most of us, no one took the maglev idea seriously since it had been failing regularly since 1994 (see: 7-star resorts.) As to the City being anti-transit, Orlando has more Lynx service than any other area, fought diligently for light rail (as opposed to the fail on the OC Commission) and support all along by Buddy and company for SunRail. Sorry, that dog won't hunt.

And, just to be clear, had it been up to just the Orlando City Council, we would today have a light rail system running from Seminole County to the attractions with regular daily service including weekends and holidays. it would have been running for over a decade.

Edited August 6, 2018 by spenser1058

[codypet]

2 hours ago, spenser1058 said:

Or, it could be that. like most of us, no one took the maglev idea seriously since it had been failing regularly since 1994 (see: 7-star resorts.) As to the City being anti-transit, Orlando has more Lynx service than any other area, fought diligently for light rail (as opposed to the fail on the OC Commission) and support all along by Buddy and company for SunRail. Sorry, that dog won't hunt.

And, just to be clear, had it been up to just the Orlando City Council, we would today have a light rail system running from Seminole County to the attractions with regular daily service including weekends and holidays. it would have been running for over a decade.

Seriously.  What could have been.

[aent]

6 hours ago, HankStrong said:

I still say that maglev for that route is a massive waste of that technology.  The first phase with 14 miles and a handful of stops is silly for that tech.  The second phase of 5 miles with a couple of stops was worse.  The third phase of 20 miles with a handful of stations was the least silly, but still not what this tech is built for.  The unnumbered phase where it became a trolley for I-Drive and the convention center was the silliest use of that tech I've ever heard of.

I never understood this argument, as it was cheaper then the alternatives of elevated structures, like monorails. Obviously on the friction energy loss, its more important at high speeds, but the claim was that because the trains and equipment is much lighter, each pillar and track component could be much lighter weight and cheaper to build, and cheaper to operate as well. I personally am not a fan of mass transit that is not grade seperated, especially when you get to systems that are supposed to operate on a 15-20 minute cycle, like light rail.

6 hours ago, codypet said:

The Maglev guy has had a history of over promising and under delivering.  I don't blame the airport for not thinking the proposal had legs.

He partnered with Globalvia, which is a company that has operated these systems in many other countries, and successfully.  To alleviate concerns that it wouldn't work, he offered to post a bond that would cover the cost of removal of the system if it didn't achieve reliable operation by like 1 year after his proposed completion date. Even if they thought it didn't have legs, why not let the guy try? There was literally nothing to lose, and everything to gain.

[jrs2]

30 minutes ago, aent said:

I never understood this argument, as it was cheaper then the alternatives of elevated structures, like monorails. Obviously on the friction energy loss, its more important at high speeds, but the claim was that because the trains and equipment is much lighter, each pillar and track component could be much lighter weight and cheaper to build, and cheaper to operate as well. I personally am not a fan of mass transit that is not grade seperated, especially when you get to systems that are supposed to operate on a 15-20 minute cycle, like light rail.

He partnered with Globalvia, which is a company that has operated these systems in many other countries, and successfully.  To alleviate concerns that it wouldn't work, he offered to post a bond that would cover the cost of removal of the system if it didn't achieve reliable operation by like 1 year after his proposed completion date. Even if they thought it didn't have legs, why not let the guy try? There was literally nothing to lose, and everything to gain.

Why?  Mears.

[smileguy]

5 minutes ago, jrs2 said:

Why?  Mears.

In April, Mears announced that it had sold a combined majority stake in the company to a pair of private-equity companies: West Palm Beach-based Palm Beach Capital and New York-based Tri- Artisan Capital Advisors... The Mears family will retain 10%.  ARTICLE: https://www.floridatrend.com/article/24629/getting-a-lift-mears-turns-to-private-equity-investors-to-take-on-ride-sharing-companies

I wonder how this will change the environment here.

[spenser1058]

Over time, it will likely be huge as Paul Mears will likely be the last family member with a major role. I expect it to become more and more corporate with less of an impact on the city.

The downside is that Mears' corporate giving will also likely decrease, which will especially have an impact on Valencia.

Good job, btw, on picking up on it. I posted about it back in April but it didn't garner much attention at the time.