New census definition puts Metro Grand Rapids at 1,000,000+

[GRDadof3]

The BLS has now updated the stats from the old GR - Wyoming MSA (Kent, Ionia, Newaygo, Barry counties) with the new GR Wyoming MSA (Kent, Ottawa, Montcalm, Barry counties). This basically means they've merged Holland and Grand Haven with us.

 

The "employed" workforce up until around December of last year was around 430,000, and it's now around 530,000. In fact, the labor force is close to 550,000, which is a 30,000 jump from this time last year. Even with growth in the labor force, the unemployment rate is hovering around a 15 year low at 4.5%. In other words, the labor force growth is not a result of a bunch of people who were on unemployment whose benefits have run out.

 

Again goes to explain the shortage of rentals and homes in the market: most of the growth in the workforce is from people who were never in the local workforce, both with new college grads and people moving here.

 

http://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/mi_grandrapids_msa.htm#eag

 

That shoots us way up past peer cities like DesMoines (about 330,000), Albuquerque (410,000), Rochester (518,000), Omaha (476,000), and has us getting in the same league with Hartford (618,000),, Salt Lake City (616,000), Oklahoma City (630,000), and Raleigh (630,000)

 

If the trend of the last two years continues this year (which GR was just ranked 3rd in the country in a manpower survey of hiring outlook for this coming year), we may be bumping up close to a 600,000 labor force.

 

 

 

 

 

The industry sectors leading the growth locally are: Trade, Transportation and Utilities (4.2% growth year-over-year), Professional and Business Services (3.7%), Education and Health Services (3.7%), Manufacturing (3.6%). A pretty balanced portfolio.

 

Damn, we are getting really good at this growth thing.

 

 

*Glossary of terms (in case anyone from the local media is reading):

 

Labor Force = includes all persons classified as employed or unemployed (seeking employment). Is generally around half the MSA's population.

 

Employment (employed person) = Persons 16 years and over in the civilian noninstitutional population who, during the reference week, (a) did any work at all (at least 1 hour) as paid employees; worked in their own business, profession, or on their own farm, or worked 15 hours or more as unpaid workers in an enterprise operated by a member of the family; and (b) all those who were not working but who had jobs or businesses from which they were temporarily absent because of vacation, illness, bad weather, childcare problems, maternity or paternity leave, labor-management dispute, job training, or other family or personal reasons,

 

Unemployed = Persons aged 16 years and older who had no employment during the reference week, were available for work, except for temporary illness, and had made specific efforts to find employment sometime during the 4-week period ending with the reference week

 

 

Since economics can be too serious sometimes, here's a fun way to look at it:

 

[Allison Slater]

[fotoman311]

I prefer this version.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONFjhAa4Nu0

[ant33]

Hello, I am new to this forum, but i read it almost everyday. I wanted to share this article that was posted today. I know it's Kent County and not Grand Rapids, but i think it should still be acknowledged. Kent has had the highest population increase in Michigan.

http://www.mlive.com/lansing-news/index.ssf/2015/03/census_data_has_your_county_ga.html

[MJLO]

Hello, I am new to this forum, but i read it almost everyday. I wanted to share this article that was posted today. I know it's Kent County and not Grand Rapids, but i think it should still be acknowledged. Kent has had the highest population increase in Michigan.

http://www.mlive.com/lansing-news/index.ssf/2015/03/census_data_has_your_county_ga.html

 

Welcome my friend

 

If you look both Kent and Ottawa lead the state in either raw numbers of percentage growth.  For the top 55 metro areas Grand Rapids ranks 27th in year over year growth according to the estimates.  I have a feeling the estimates are a little conservative given past trends.  When the next census comes out I imagine we will see even stronger numbers. 

 

City estimates are released in May. 

[ant33]

Well today is the big day... I predicted anywhere from 194,000 to 196,000. I'll let you guys check out the article and give opinions.

http://www.mlive.com/lansing-news/index.ssf/2015/05/2014_census_michigan_cities.html#incart_river_mobile

[GRDadof3]

Well today is the big day... I predicted anywhere from 194,000 to 196,000. I'll let you guys check out the article and give opinions.

http://www.mlive.com/lansing-news/index.ssf/2015/05/2014_census_michigan_cities.html#incart_river_mobile

 

I predicted higher too, around 199,000. Ha.

 

So GR went like this in the last 10 years:

 

 

2004 - 194,798

2005 - 193,780

2006 - 192,863

2007 - 191,868

2008 - 190,285

2009 - 189,090

2010 - 188,051 census base (estimate was 187,995)

2011 - 188,976

2012 - 190,414

2013 - 192,294

2014 - 193,792

 

Not bad. 

 

The city of GR was the second biggest raw number gainer in the state in 2014, after Macomb Township in Macomb County. Fascinating. 

[arcturus]

Slowed down a bit from the previous year.  More people must have croaked.

[GR8scott]

I really hope GR can top 200k for the 2020 census!

[MJLO]

I really hope GR can top 200k for the 2020 census!

 

With current trends that seems likely.

[Allison Slater]

Perhaps the thing holding us back from having actually achieved that 194k is availability of rentals.  The vacancy rate right now is bottlenecking us to a degree, I'm sure.

[MJLO]

It's hard to say.  Estimates aren't too reliable and these ones were from almost a year ago.   There are 1000s of units in the works that will come online in the next year and a half it'll be interesting to see what the estimates are in a couple years.  The city could very well be knocking on 200k according to estimates.  I fully expect the next census to show they were being too conservative. 

[GRDadof3]

It's hard to say.  Estimates aren't too reliable and these ones were from almost a year ago.   There are 1000s of units in the works that will come online in the next year and a half it'll be interesting to see what the estimates are in a couple years.  The city could very well be knocking on 200k according to estimates.  I fully expect the next census to show they were being too conservative. 

 

I think though that arcturus brings up an interesting point. The population of a lot of urban areas is aging. If you look at the census stats for the metro area, the number of people dying every year has been steadily rising as a percentage of the population, which makes sense (baby boomers). And as a lot of couples are putting off getting married and having or adopting kids, the population increase from more people living downtown may be offset by other demographic shifts. 

 

With that being said, Grand Rapids is certainly bucking the trend for most of the Great Lakes area cities.  Even Chicago only registered a small 200 person gain. 

[Paramaribo]

Our building is mostly commercial, but it also has 12 residential units. An informal census shows the potential impact of the boomers downtown. 

 

January 2013

# of residents 50+ years old: 0

# of owner occupied units: 2 of 12

# of rental units: 10 of 12

 

May 2015

# of residents 50+ years old: 6

# of owner occupied units: 7 of 12

# of rental units: 5 of 12

 

 

 

[GR8scott]

what GR does not have a lot of and certainly not recently is high density lower income apartments like 4-8 story basic block buildings I know it might not be economical to build them downtown but theres certainly areas of town that would benefit from a few more apartments and dare I say a mid rise 12 floors outside of downtown? Im thinking something like the 8 story or so senior living off Lake MI and another off 28th and Brenton. 

[RegalTDP]

I think Millennials will only want to live downtown for so long. Once majority of them are in their 30s, they will spring for the suburbs like their parents did. I give it 12 years before the numbers move away from downtown. It's hip and trendy to live in a downtown environment when you're young but when you're in your 30s and kid #3 is on the way, the burbs are very tempting. It was the same story with the Boomers. Haight St in San Fran boomed in the 60s when the boomers were mostly in their teens and early twenties. Then it was deserted as the more well off Boomers left for the burbs; leaving their drug addicted friends behind.

 

This is why I'm holding my breath for a Destination downtown. Something to draw the suburban masses of now and future to the city's core. Because nothing propels a society faster then forcing people to be around other people through the inherit layout, design, and spirit of a urban center. 

 

A marketplace of ideas doesn't flourish well when everybody is hold up in their McMansions, seperated by two and a quarter acres of "don't walk on it" grass. 

 

I agree with what you're saying about Millennials; some of them already are 30 and moving now.  But for how that affects downtown, (a) there will always be more young people, and (b) I don't think its all young people who will live downtown anyway.  It'll always be the priciest place to live in GR, and the people who live there will be the ones who can afford it.  To use your own example, look at Haight Ashbury today... Not exactly a ghost town anymore 

 

I don't worry about the future of downtown at all... It'll take time, but eventually enough residents will bring in a real grocery store and a pharmacy, and there'll be no stopping it.

 

I worry about the non-trendy neighborhoods outside of downtown.  Places like Garfield Park, South East End, or northern Wyoming.  So much of the housing stock isn't appealing to new residents (urban or suburban), and our cities can't afford to let them wither away.

[Quercus]

Good to see positive numbers for GR again. I think we end up talking about downtown's population a lot because more than any part of the city it's the place we all have in common. To me, though, the bigger story of late has been the positive developments in GR's many neighborhoods and business districts. Creston and the West Side are the latest to heat up and I suspect by the time the next census is done we will see significant reinvestment and modest population growth in most of the City's neighborhoods. We've come a long ways in the last 10-15 years and it doesn't strike me as a short-term trend. I'm most familiar with GR's southeast side, but City-wide I don't get the impression there are any areas clearly on the decline; more like, there are areas improving and areas in a holding pattern.

This is hard to judge visually, though, and is where the census is really useful. The next go-around I will be very interested to see how things change socioeconomically in the City and region. Metro GR is not immune to the increasing income inequality in the U.S. and that will influence development and population flow. Maybe there will be pockets of GR that get worse, but I suspect it will be the inner suburbs that see population loss, falling median incomes, and disinvestment.

RegalTDP, can you expand on your "trendy neighborhood" and housing stock comment? I feel like the same thing could have been said about East Hills, Wealthy Street, Belknap Hill, etc. 5-10 years ago

[RegalTDP]

RegalTDP, can you expand on your "trendy neighborhood" and housing stock comment? I feel like the same thing could have been said about East Hills, Wealthy Street, Belknap Hill, etc. 5-10 years ago

 

That's true, and I'm really heartened by Creston and the west side heating up as you noted.  I'm just wondering how SE and SW neighborhoods will be able to recover as the area grows.  Garfield Park really got slammed in the foreclosure crisis.  I love this neighborhood too; I love its quaint midwestern-ness.  But I also think, post-recovery, it's at a disadvantage - it's not city enough for the urban dwellers, and the small housing stock isn't appealing for suburbanites.

 

I'm an optimist, and I think we'll see investment in SE business districts and amenities that will enhance those neighborhoods.  I never said it wouldn't happen, just that I worry about it.

[organsnyder]

Which area of Garfield Park are you talking about? We were drawn to our house in Garfield Park because of exactly the opposite of what you describe: we have a decent-sized historic house on a huge lot (for the city, at least—.75 acre), within a quarter-mile of four bus routes (including the Silver Line). There are certainly areas of Garfield Park with smaller houses and lots, but there are a lot of properties that are attractive to those that want a suburban-ish property with urban amenities.

[mpchicago]

I've talked to 2 people in the last week that are moving their families from Chicago to Grand Rapids.  Neither has previous connections to the area.  A neighbor just got a job at Herman Miller, and they are planning on living in Forest Hills, or East Grand Rapids.  While his job is in Ottawa county, they want to live close to the city.  The other, is a Gail who works in my office.  Her husband is a sales rep who can live anywhere in the mid-west, and they have decided on Grand Rapids.  They both have family in Jackson, and wanted to be closer, but really like Grand Rapids.  They are looking at Rockford and Forest Hills. 

[GR_Urbanist]

I've talked to 2 people in the last week that are moving their families from Chicago to Grand Rapids.  Neither has previous connections to the area.  A neighbor just got a job at Herman Miller, and they are planning on living in Forest Hills, or East Grand Rapids.  While his job is in Ottawa county, they want to live close to the city.  The other, is a Gail who works in my office.  Her husband is a sales rep who can live anywhere in the mid-west, and they have decided on Grand Rapids.  They both have family in Jackson, and wanted to be closer, but really like Grand Rapids.  They are looking at Rockford and Forest Hills. 

 

There are tons of Illinois plates on cars around E. Hills. In fact I've seen them from Georgia, Florida, Wisconsin, New York, Washington, Oregon, California, Texas and even Ontario in the past month. I just assumed they were beer tourists, but now I'm wondering if these are transplants as well.

[fotoman311]

There are tons of Illinois plates on cars around E. Hills. In fact I've seen them from Georgia, Florida, Wisconsin, New York, Washington, Oregon, California, Texas and even Ontario in the past month. I just assumed they were beer tourists, but now I'm wondering if these are transplants as well.

 

I work occasionally at the Grand Rapids Bicycle Company on E. Fulton and this Saturday we rented three bikes to some beer tourists from Chicago so they could go ride the White Pine Trail.  They were staying downtown at the JW Marriott and walking and using Uber to get around.