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Aessotariq

Hurricane Season in Florida 2005

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Hurricane season begins June 1st, a short time away, so now is a good time to let everyone know about an upcoming incentive that will help Florida residents with their hurricane preparedness purchases.

Florida has enacted a sales tax holiday on qualifying hurricane preparedness items for the first 12 calendar days of this year's hurricane season (June 1-12). During this time period, certain items such as batteries, flashlights, radios, anchors, generators, etc., within a specific price range will be exempt from Florida and local sales taxes. Non-prepared food items, over-the-counter and prescription drugs, and first-aid kits are always exempt from Florida sales tax.

There is much more information in a brochure containing the specific rules and limitations from the Florida Department of Revenue's website.

Items selling for $20 or less:

  • Any portable self-powered light source

  • Battery-powered flashlights

  • Battery-powered lanterns

  • Gas-powered lanterns

  • Candles

Items for $25 or less:

  • Any gas or diesel fuel container

Items selling for $30 or less:

  • Batteries, including rechargeable (listed sizes only) -- AA-cell, C-cell, D-cell, 6-volt (excluding automobile and boat batteries), 9-volt (excluding automobile and boat batteries)

  • Coolers (food storage; nonelectrical)

  • Ice Chests (food storage; nonelectrical)

  • First aid kits (first aid kit are always exempt from sales tax, regardless of the sales price)

Items selling for $50 or less:

  • Radios (self-powered or battery-powered)

  • Two-way radios (self-powered or battery-powered)

  • Weather band radios (self-powered or battery powered)

  • Tarpaulins (tarps)

  • Flexible waterproof sheeting (visqueen)

  • Ground anchor systems

  • Tie down kits

Items selling for $750 or less:

  • Portable generator that will be used to provide light or communications, or to preserve perishable food in the event of a power outage due to a hurricane.

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Predicting an active season, not necessarily a season like 2004. There's a big difference. Or course most TV weatherpeople would rather hype it up than try to explain it accurately. What happened last year was a freak occurence that will likely not happen again in our lifetimes. Not saying it couldn't, just that it's not likely.

That being said, it doesn't matter if 500 hurricanes cross our state, it only takes one to literally turn your life upside down. So be prepared and stay alert.

Oh and I take exception to your putting "experts" in quotes like that. Would you like to see credentials? These forecasts are built on statistical models based on the latest science and understanding.

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Two articles saying the same thing, Florida is at an increased risk of getting hit this year.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/weathe...=orl-home-promo

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/sou...-home-headlines

Gray was one of the first to conclude that sea-surface temperatures, sea-level air pressure, east-west wind speeds and other global weather factors influence hurricane activity. Johnson and Watson factor these things in, too, but ask a different question.

"I don't care whether there's five storms or 10 storms or 15 storms. What I care about is, is my home going to get hit," Watson said.

For instance, in an average year, Miami Beach residents have a 7.5 percent chance of being hit by hurricane winds. This year, the researchers predict it's more than a 1-in-10 chance hurricane winds will hit that city. The risk has jumped 34.7 percent.

For Naples, it's worse. Chances of hurricane winds hitting there are normally about 1 in 16. This year: 1 in 10. That's about a 60 percent increase in risk.

For the northern part of the state, the outlook is better: St. Augustine residents have low odds normally: just a 3.1 percent chance of getting hit. But it's 1.4 percent this year -- a nearly 55 percent decrease in risk.

Panama City, Apalachicola, Cedar Key and Pensacola face slightly better-than-average odds, too, they say. But Orlando -- which stands a 1-in-25 chance of being hit normally -- is facing almost 1-in-20 odds. That's a 22.5 percent jump in risk.

The researchers website here: http://hurricane.methaz.org/

17759453.jpg

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What is the chace in jacksonville? Also, with having one hurricane already develop even before the season begins is pretty scary.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Jacksonville has one of if not the lowest risk South of Maryland on the East coast with a 1.0 - 1.5% chance.

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Not a surprise here.

Expert bumps up number of named storms, hurricanes

FORT COLLINS, Colo. -- Continued warming of the ocean will spur high hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this season and increase the probability of a storm moving inland, forecasters said Tuesday.

An updated forecast by William Gray and his team at Colorado State University, released a day before the official start of hurricane season, predicts 15 named storms, with eight of those becoming hurricanes. Four of the hurricanes are expected to be intense, with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.

An earlier forecast predicted a total of 13 named storms and seven hurricanes, three of which were expected to be intense.

"We have adjusted our forecast upward from our early April forecast and now expect tropical cyclone activity to be about 170% of the average seasonal activity," said Gray, an atmospheric science professor....

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/sou...-home-headlines

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Welcome to Hurricane Season everybody. It has officially begun.

Florida's storm fate up in the air

The steering currents that drove four hurricanes to Florida last year might be weaker this year, but we are not off the hook.

BY MARTIN MERZER

[email protected]

Both maps of the atmosphere seem esoteric, but they chart dramatically different hurricane highways -- and point to dramatically different possibilities for Florida -- as a new hurricane season begins today.

One map illustrates atmospheric steering currents that head west below Jamaica and Cuba, carrying vicious, Atlantic-born storms away from us. This was the average pattern between 1995 and 2003.

The other atmospheric highway bends sharply northward, carrying these killer storms directly at us. This was the dominant pattern last August and September, when four hurricanes assaulted Florida within six weeks.

Which map will prove accurate this year?

Maybe neither, though Florida may fare better than it did last year....

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Most of you probably know a lot of these, but here they are.

Hurricane Links every Floridian should have:

The official National Hurricane Center - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

National Weather Service Miami office - http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/

NWS Key West - http://www.srh.noaa.gov/eyw/

NWS Tampa - http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/

NWS Melbourne - http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/

NWS Jaksonville - http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax/

NWS Tallahassee - http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tae/

NWS Mobile - http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/

Good data links from Plymouth State - http://vortex.plymouth.edu/tropical.html

Unisys, past hurricane tracks and more data - http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/

Dr. Gray's seasonal forecast - http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/

Fema - http://www.fema.gov/hazards/hurricanes/

That'll do for now. Post your favorites if you have them.

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I know that the experts are predicting an active season, but does anyone know how accurate they are with their predictions? It would be interesting to see a comparison of what has been predicted and what has actually happened in the past. Just a thought.

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they do tend to be relatively accurate. The idea though is not to concentrate on the exacty number but to see that the season will more below or above average. In that sense he's been dead on the last few years.

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I won't be posting all of these but this could be the first storm of the season and likely affect Florida if it forms. You can read the tropical outlooks yourself at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

ABNT20 KNHC 081508

TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1130 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE BROAD

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING

BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING

BETWEEN HONDURAS AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE

BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD

BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES

SLOWLY NORTHWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT

IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. EVEN IF THE

SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE

AFFECTING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN

PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH

THURSDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB

$$

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People in the panhandle should keep an eye on this one.

Conflabbit! I'm spending the week at my grandparents' house in rural Florida, just north of Pensacola. This storm doesn't seem as bad as the infamous ones from last season. It's just a bunch of annoying rain.

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We had a couple of windy and rainy days here in Miami. It looks like most of Florida got a soaking from this one. This was just a tropical storm; a good warmup for the next one that might not play so nice.

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Looks like another one headed towards the panhandle of Florida and this one isn't going to play so nicely. We're looking at a major hurricane within 3 days.

This one is scaring me.

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i just saw the news about this one... at first i felt bad for jamaica, but then i realized that tallahassee is due for a beating, we got super lucky with every storm last season.

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It looks like Dennis is going to be a bad one.....predictions for what part of the gulf coast it will hit? I'm thinking West of the panhandle, possible even as far West as New Orleans.

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maybe the front moving over texas tomorrow will hit dennis in the gulf keeping the threat on the panhandle... but i do think that s. fla is going to be ok this time. I would say it becomes a cat3/4 beofre landfull in US..

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maybe the front moving over texas tomorrow will hit dennis in the gulf keeping the threat on the panhandle... but i do think that s. fla is going to be ok this time.  I would say it becomes a cat3/4 beofre landfull in US..

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That is a possibility, although fronts tend to quickly disintegrate in the South this time of year.

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Good luck to you and yours in that area.

One of these days people will realize that the safest part of Fl is Jacksonville and they'll all move to Clay and St Johns counties.

Oh wait, they're doing that already.

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Dennis is now a category 3, and the Lower Keys are under an evacuation order and hurricane warning.

205500W_sm.gif

000

WTNT34 KNHC 072040

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

HURRICANE DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 13

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005

...DENNIS NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE

LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE LOWER

FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY

TORTUGAS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE REMAINDER

OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF

AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE

FLORIDA KEYS EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND

FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...

VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...

CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING PROVINCES OF

CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...

CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...AND HOLGUIN.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE

WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE

AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE

WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA

PENINSULA FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST AND SOUTH

OF BONITA BEACH ON THE WEST COAST.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL

STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH

AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA

OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD...ALL OF

JAMAICA...AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR

THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST OR ABOUT 90

MILES... 145 KM... SOUTHEAST OF CABO CRUZ IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND

ABOUT 125 MILES... 200 KM...SOUTHWEST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND

THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS

TRACK THE CENTER WILL PASS VERY NEAR CABO CRUZ TONIGHT...AND BE

VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA ON FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT

DENNIS HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS

ARE NOW NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A

DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.

SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES

CENTRAL CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...

FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM

CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO

10 INCHES OVER HAITI...JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA

MAESTRA MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE

LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...

ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY IN

AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CUBA EAST OF

CABO CRUZ. A MUCH LARGER STORM SURGE OF NEAR 20 FEET IS POSSIBLE

ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA WEST OF CABO CRUZ. A STORM SURGE

OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...19.0 N... 76.6 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 957 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM

EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$

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