NWA Growth

[Architect]

On January 28, 2015 at 1:33:31 PM, wmr said:

the Urban Land Institute released their growth models for metros all over the U.S. through 2030.  NWA is projected to be one of the fastest growing metros percentage wise.

 

This link allows you to use different scenarios, including high, low or average growth, migration, births, deaths, etc.

 

When using the avg birth and migration patterns, NWA is projected to top 800,000 residents by 2030.  That's amazing.  One of the most significant predictions in this data model is the high number of people from 20-49 expected in NWA.  THAT is a healthy economy poised for lots of new growth for decades into the future.

 

This is an interactive map you can play with for metros all over the country.

 

  http://datatools.urban.org/features/mapping-americas-futures/#map

Cool!  Interesting find...I've shared this in the LR forum.  It looks like NWA will close within nearly 100,000 of Little Rock by 2030 - not surprising!  What is surprising is the relatively robust growth of Arkansas' two largest metros (NWA at 58% and LR at 27%) when compared with Memphis, Tulsa, Shreveport, Jackson & others...

[wmr]

NWA enters the top 25 Best Performing Cities Index this year, and is in some good company:  http://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-boom-and-bust-cities-of-2015-191725627.html#

[OzarkSingleSpeed]

'Lonely Planet' published a nice little write up on Northwest Arkansas this week ... https://www.lonelyplanet.com/best-in-us

 

"Northwest Arkansas is a wild surprise, with mountains, crystal blue lakes and green river valleys that give the Rockies a run for their money. Each town brings a fresh surprise: in one you'll find religious fundamentalists who outlaw alcohol; the next town will have rainbow flags and health food shops; the next town will have both plus packs of bikers. Fayetteville, home of the University of Arkansas, is an artsy bubble with a vibrant literary scene; Bentonville (home of Walmart) is an international town with an array of good eats; Eureka Springs has a beautiful historical core and access to some of the best hiking in the Ozarks."

[OzarkSingleSpeed]

The Compass Report reveled some positive data for our state ...

 

Job growth, building activity and tax revenue gains are again in rapid growth mode for Northwest Arkansas ... comparing Q3  / QOQ, Northwest Arkansas experienced a 2.7% increase in the labor force and the area issued 1,220 building permits valued at $242.8 million.

 

The River Valley region was somewhat up-and-down in both job growth (1.4% growth in labor force) and construction but that seems to be typical for Ft. Smith which is much more directly impacted by the overall US economy and manufacturing sector.  Central Arkansas experienced 3.1% growth in labor force and issued 1,082 building permits valued at $98.4 million for the quarter.

 

So overall, the state seems to be doing well - lets hope to see the trend continue for Arkansas and the US economy.

[OzarkSingleSpeed]

Northwest Arkansas per capita income ($50,686) ranks 31st in the nation among 382 Metropolitan Statistical Areas ... other MSA's in this region of the country: Tulsa ($49,807), Dallas-Fort Worth ($49,506), Oklahoma City ($46,675), Kansas City ($46,319), Little Rock ($40,925) and Springfield ($35,931).

[wmr]

Census data released last night shows the NWA metro added 11,495 people from July 2014 to July 2015, bringing the 2015 population estimate for NWA to 513,148.

[OzarkSingleSpeed]

1 hour ago, wmr said:

Census data released last night shows the NWA metro added 11,495 people from July 2014 to July 2015, bringing the 2015 population estimate for NWA to 513,148.

 

The Flyer published a report last summer on the 'fastest growing cities in Arkansas' - no surprise Fayetteville, Springdale, Rogers and Bentonville were the top four, followed by Conway in the fifth spot.

 

•Fayetteville: 1,602 (+2.0%)

•Bentonville: 1,492 (+3.7%)

•Rogers: 1,373 (+2.3%)

•Springdale: 1,270 (+1.7%)

•Conway: 880 (+1.4%)

 

Fayetteville has led the state in population growth for three straight years - be interesting to see the breakout from this years census numbers.

[wmr]

Population estimates for July 2015 are out today.  Here are  the new estimates, along with the number of new residents over 2014 estimates:

Fayetteville – 82,830, added 2,008.

Springdale – 77,859, added 1,422

Rogers – 63,159, added 1,561

Bentonville – 44,499, added 2,790

Growth has accelerated around here.

[wmr]

already posted info.  

Edited May 19, 2016 by wmr
mistake.

[strmchsr77]

3 hours ago, wmr said:

Population estimates for July 2015 are out today.  Here are  the new estimates, along with the number of new residents over 2014 estimates:

Fayetteville – 82,830, added 2,008.

Springdale – 77,859, added 1,422

Rogers – 63,159, added 1,561

Bentonville – 44,499, added 2,790

Growth has accelerated around here.

I wonder how long it will be until Fayetteville becomes the 2nd largest city in the state by passing Fort Smith.  Since these are about a year old now (Fayetteville could be approaching 85,000 by end of summer).  I'd assume Springdale will also have a shot at moving up a spot if these trends continue a few more years.

[Mith242]

On 5/19/2016 at 2:12 PM, strmchsr77 said:

I wonder how long it will be until Fayetteville becomes the 2nd largest city in the state by passing Fort Smith.  Since these are about a year old now (Fayetteville could be approaching 85,000 by end of summer).  I'd assume Springdale will also have a shot at moving up a spot if these trends continue a few more years.

True, I think we've all been waiting for a NWA city to surpass Ft Smith and it's getting closer and closer.  One other tend I've noticed is that after years of almost catching up to Fayetteville, Springdale seems to be slowing down a bit.  Also shouldn't be too much longer before Bentonville passes the 50k mark.  Sometimes I still have a hard time remembering just how much the area has grown.  Instinctively thinking of some of the NWA communities as rather small as they were years ago and not what they've become now.

[NWAProud]

Fort Smith isn't in good shape, and will likely continue to stagnate, depending on how much economic impact the I-49 corridor will have on the river valley area in terms of increased traffic, as a result of it being near a major Interstate interchange.  Eventually.  It is taking way too long to finish that plan.  It's all on the shoulders of how the whole situation is managed by the folks in charge.

As it is well known in NWA, Springdale has a bit of an issue with crime right now, specifically gang violence in and around the core of the city, and it's spreading.  An FBI task force is now involved to assist Springdale PD with this issue.  I will say, however, that significant investment and generosity from the George family in particular, is creating what is turning into a pretty impressive commercial area for the city on the West side.  Arvest Ballpark, plus a $100,000,000 branch of ACH is nothing to slouch about.  They have good people in positions to turn things around.  Have you seen Emma downtown lately?  The Tyson, and WFF contributions have made a significant impact.

Rogers seems to be having a ball as a city, definitely analogous to a gregarious and friendly young dude.  Bentonville is the "nouveau" of NWA.  Fayetteville is the funky, successful, educated liberal cousin down south who everyone loves, but who has some quirky habits.

Edited May 24, 2016 by NWAProud
Grammar

[KJW]

"Wow".  Just "wow".  (Right now, that's a net of 11,300+ new people per year.  And this region's not finished expanding yet (see: an ever-more-completed-I-49):

POPULATION GROWTH FEEDING NEED FOR ROAD WORK
For several years the four-lane I-49 through Benton and Washington counties has not been enough to handle the rise in traffic volume produced by a fast-growing metro population.

U.S. Census estimate updates released March 24 show that the Northwest Arkansas metro area accounted for most of the state’s population growth in the past five years, and only 35 of the nation’s 381 metro areas posted a higher population gain in the past five years than Northwest Arkansas.

The Northwest Arkansas metro – home to corporate giants Wal-Mart Stores Inc, Tyson Foods, and J.B. Hunt Transport, as well as the University of Arkansas – had population growth of 50,532 between April 2010 and July 1, 2015, according to updated Census data. During the past year (July 1, 2014 – July 1, 2015), the region’s population grew by 11,495.

“The latest Census estimates show Northwest Arkansas grew by more than 31 people per day from July 2014 to July 2015. That’s a solid increase because our average day between the April 2010 Census and the July 2014 estimate brought us about 25 new people,” Rob Smith, communications and policy director with the Northwest Arkansas Council, said following the March update.

http://talkbusiness.net/2016/07/almost-nine-lanes-of-i-49-through-bentonville-and-rogers-set-for-widening-construction/

Edited July 7, 2016 by KJW

[KJW]

Walmart CEO Doug McMillon was quoted yesterday as saying NWA will have over 1,000,000 people within 15 years at projected growth rates.  Here's some rough math.  Forgive me as I don't have links for the numbers, but they're out there:

Date NWA officially "hit" the 500,000 mark: April 30th, 2014.

Average net per day gain of people moving into NWA since then: 31 per day

Using above numbers, the current population of NWA today:  525,978*
(*500,000 + (838 (number of days since April 30th, 2014 x31, =) 25,978

Now, how would you add 500,000 people over the next 15 years?

15 (years) x 365 (days per year) = 5,475.
500,000 divided by 5,475=91.32

That means that he (and whomever is advising him) is projecting NWA (not counting metro Fort Smith) will grow over the next 15 years by an average of 91 people per day. 

If those estimates hold true, hold onto your hats, friends, and be prepared for anything, eventually.

At last week’s Children’s Hospital fundraising gala in Northwest Arkansas, Wal-Mart CEO Doug McMillon said the region is on pace to grow to more than 1 million residents over the next 15 years.

“If that is really the pace of growth, we will have to accelerate our plan for expansion,” Doderer said. “The building we’re designing is easily expandable. We’re actually building it such that we can grow, we can build without disrupting services that are open.”

http://talkbusiness.net/2016/08/arkansas-childrens-ceo-says-nw-arkansas-poised-for-more-growth-shares-plans-for-additional-state-reach/ 

[wmr]

Census Bureau estimates will be released tomorrow for MSA population as of July 1, 2016.

 

Northwest Arkansas metro is estimated as having 525,032 residents last July.

[wmr]

July 1, 2016 county estimates

(2015 estimate)

 

 

Benton County:  258,291

(249,672)  +8,619

Washington County:  228,049

(225,477)  +2,572

Madison County:  16,072

(15,767)  +305

McDonald County, MO:  22,620

(22,643)  -23

 

Notably, the heaviest growth is obviously in Benton County and the gap between Benton and Washington counties seems to be getting bigger, both in population and rate of growth.  Madison and McDonald counties are essentially neutral in the region's growth.

Edited March 23, 2017 by wmr

[wmr]

When the 2017 population estimates are released next year, it will be fun to compare them to this.  These are the numbers used in 1994 to plan for XNA.  They expected to open in 1997, so they used 2017 as a benchmark for population and traffic studies.  Needless to say, they WAY underestimated.

[strmchsr77]

Looks like they only missed Fayetteville's population by about 30,000. LOL

[wmr]

 

On 5/19/2016 at 10:31 AM, wmr said:

Population estimates for July 2015 are out today.  Here are  the new estimates, along with the number of new residents over 2014 estimates:

Fayetteville – 82,830, added 2,008.

Springdale – 77,859, added 1,422

Rogers – 63,159, added 1,561

Bentonville – 44,499, added 2,790

Growth has accelerated around here.

The county estimates are confirmed further through today's release of city estimates.  Benton County cities are growing just as quickly as last year, while Washington County has slowed down:

Estimates of city Population as of July 1, 2016:

Fayetteville – 83,826 added 996
Springdale – 78,557 added 698

Rogers – 65,021, added 1,862
Bentonville – 47,093, added 2,594

Edited May 25, 2017 by wmr

[Allen Alexander]

5 hours ago, wmr said:

 

The county estimates are confirmed further through today's release of city estimates.  Benton County cities are growing just as quickly as last year, while Washington County has slowed down:

Estimates of city Population as of July 1, 2016:

Fayetteville – 83,826 added 996
Springdale – 78,557 added 698

Rogers – 65,021, added 1,862
Bentonville – 47,093, added 2,594

where did you find these numbers? I'm wanting to see the central arkansas numbers

[Ronny]

On 5/25/2017 at 8:38 PM, Allen Alexander said:

where did you find these numbers? I'm wanting to see the central arkansas numbers

http://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/index.ssf/2017/05/2016_census_population_estimat.html?appSession=31809716994026407773250715552865337157112709833815236379578256823474810703814272543797353692066648645621651910930803408680986295&cbSearchAgain=true

I found them at this database, Conway's barely hanging on to its lead on Rogers.

Edited May 27, 2017 by Ronny

[OzarkSingleSpeed]

Population estimates released this spring show Northwest Arkansas (Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers metro) continues to grow at a brisk pace ... the area grew 2.3% with a population of 537,463.  The area is netting 34 people per day, eclipsing 1,000 people per month migrating to NWA for a total of 12,287 people added to the population.  The area is the 14th fastest growing metro in the US, up from 20th in 2016.

Around the state ...

• Jonesboro metro area grew 1.1% adding 1,480 people which is positive considering the emphasis on agriculture and food production in the NEA region
• Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway metro grew 0.67% adding 4,883 people.  Pulaski County only added 279 people so growth is in surrounding counties
• Forth Smith metro area grew 0.38% adding 1,054 people which is encouraging as manufacturing jobs slowly come back to the River Valley area

And just for fun - the largest increase for any metropolitan area was Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metro adding 146,000 people ... wow!

[TRB]

The thing with Jonesboro is that it's just mainly folks from mostly nearby smaller towns moving in to town(regional consolidation) whereas NWA is gaining from all over.

[OzarkSingleSpeed]

1 hour ago, TRB said:

Whereas NWA is gaining from all over.

True.  I would like to see data on where the 34 people per day moving to Northwest Arkansas are coming from but thats probably impossible to determine.

[Aleck]

8 hours ago, OzarkSingleSpeed said:

Population estimates released this spring show Northwest Arkansas (Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers metro) continues to grow at a brisk pace ... the area grew 2.3% with a population of 537,463.  The area is netting 34 people per day, eclipsing 1,000 people per month migrating to NWA for a total of 12,287 people added to the population.  The area is the 14th fastest growing metro in the US, up from 20th in 2016.

Around the state ...

• Jonesboro metro area grew 1.1% adding 1,480 people which is positive considering the emphasis on agriculture and food production in the NEA region
• Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway metro grew 0.67% adding 4,883 people.  Pulaski County only added 279 people so growth is in surrounding counties
• Forth Smith metro area grew 0.38% adding 1,054 people which is encouraging as manufacturing jobs slowly come back to the River Valley area

And just for fun - the largest increase for any metropolitan area was Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metro adding 146,000 people ... wow!

Where did this information come from? I was wanting to see the Central Arkansas population specifics?