NWA Growth

[Mith242]

July 2013 population estimates were released yesterday by county.  In the NWA metro, here's the breakdown in increase to 2013 from 2012.

 

Benton County - 237,297 up from 232,658.

 

Washington County - 216,410 up from 211,552.

 

Madison County - 15,701 up from 15,615.

 

McDonald County, MO - 22,558, down from 22,902.

 

This is a grand total for the four-county region of 491,966 residents as of July 1, 2013 (estimate).

 

What stands out obviously to me is that having a "four-county" metro here doesn't mean all that much, because in Madison and McDonald, growth is non-existent.  Benton and Washington County carry all of the population here.  Also, Washington County actually added more people than Benton County did over the past year. 

True.  For that matter any of the other possible counties that could be added in the near future to our metro.  I haven't really looked into it, but I can't recall any other of those counties having much population or for that matter a lot of growth either.  

A little outside the NWA metro.  But another figure I saw that surprised me was that the Ft Smith metro actually had a slight decrease as well.  As far as I can remember Ft Smith has always grown.  Obviously nothing like NWA has.  And Ft Smith has had some setbacks as some plants have closed down and the loss of jobs.  But still a little surprised to see them decrease.

[KJW]

1.  ...and then we see the growth in far east Fort Smith in the Chaffee area, and the home after home being built in the Centerton area, and it's a reminder:  all this is happening on the Arkansas side.  This past year a new business (Orscheln) and a new branch of Crowder College both opened in Jane, MO, but there is no attendant residential growth.  As for Oklahoma (the two "Fort Smith" counties, Sequoyah and LeFlore, each lost a bit of population, as did the two potential "NWA" ones Adair and Delaware) the only significant "businesses" that seem to have opened there just across the line from FSM and NWA are ones related to gambling, and, unfortunately but predictably, gambling never has (apart from a place like Las Vegas) had a good record of being a community builder.

 

Fascinating...Arkansas was always smaller, less populous and in the eyes of many far less "cultured" than Oklahoma or Missouri.

 

2.  That being said, according to the Census Bureau:

 

 

The July 2013 population estimate confirms that Northwest Arkansas is adding more people per day to its population than many larger metropolitan areas, including Tulsa, Cincinnati, Memphis, St. Louis, Milwaukee and Pittsburgh.

 

http://nwacouncil.org/news/2014/mar/27/NorthwestArkansasGrowthRanks24thinNation/

 

[KJW]

This still amazes me.

 

Here's a CityWire story about construction activity being up in the Fort Smith area.  Yet what sticks out to me is how the former KNWA-TV Fort Smith newsroom (which had been the newsroom, I believe for Fort Smith NBC affiliate KPOM a couple of decades ago when Benton County, AR was still in the Joplin-Pittsburg, KS TV market) is being converted into an immigration center!

 

I'm not concerned about the future use of the building (though this is still noteworthy).  Rather, that no matter what counties may be losing population, the NBC affiliate of the current Fayetteville-Fort Smith TV market has closed its Fort Smith (300,000 people in the five-county metro area, with perhaps 100,000 more to move there when I-49 is complete and Chaffee Crossing turns that part of the area "unrecognizeable" with its new Osteopathic Medical college, plus the future U.S. Marshals Museum, etc.) office.

 

How many other U.S.A. media markets have had this happen, where a 300,000+ metro area which once was the media hub of the area has a network affiliate TV newsroom shut down due to the emergence of a genuine Orlando/Las Vegas-style (in terms of meteoric growth) "boom town" in the same market?

 

Not many, if any, I'm guessing...

Edited April 2, 2014 by KJW

[Mith242]

This still amazes me.

 

Here's a CityWire story about construction activity being up in the Fort Smith area.  Yet what sticks out to me is how the former KNWA-TV Fort Smith newsroom (which had been the newsroom, I believe for Fort Smith NBC affiliate KPOM a couple of decades ago when Benton County, AR was still in the Joplin-Pittsburg, KS TV market) is being converted into an immigration center!

 

I'm not concerned about the future use of the building (though this is still noteworthy).  Rather, that no matter what counties may be losing population, the NBC affiliate of the current Fayetteville-Fort Smith TV market has closed its Fort Smith (300,000 people in the five-county metro area, with perhaps 100,000 more to move there when I-49 is complete and Chaffee Crossing turns that part of the area "unrecognizeable" with its new Osteopathic Medical college, plus the future U.S. Marshals Museum, etc.) office.

 

How many other U.S.A. media markets have had this happen, where a 300,000+ metro area which once was the media hub of the area has a network affiliate TV newsroom shut down due to the emergence of a genuine Orlando/Las Vegas-style (in terms of meteoric growth) "boom town" in the same market?

 

Not many, if any, I'm guessing...

True, it is rather unique.  Nothing against Ft Smith, but I still look forward to the local stations focusing more on NWA.  Despite some of the stations moving their stations northward.  It still seems like some of them are heavy on news from  the Ft Smith metro area.

[TRB]

KFSM(CBS) in obvious in it's devotion to the River Valley, KNWA(or the Fox/NBC channels) is obvious in it's devotion to Wash/Benton Cos. while KHOG (ABC) is still trying to do both equally. Does anything telecast wise come out of KFSM's NWA Mall office/studio anymore, it used to be nearly a split broadcast.

[UrbanArkie]

It seems to me that as far as new media goes, Ft Smith and NWA should have separate outlets. The few times I have stayed in hotels in Ft Smith I found it interestingly unique and strange that the normal news was there.

 

This is on par with many other businesses from other neighboring cities that had long benefited from NWA's lack of local services. NWA is just growing up to hold its own...

[KJW]

UrbanArkie, could be.

 

But TV stations are obviously driven by ad revenue, and national accounts look for numbers.  With FSM and NWA adjoining each other via county borders and historic (despite the relatively recent addition of Benton County) media dominance, having the two metros combined into an 800,000 person entity will open up more ad dollars (as will whenever, if it happens, the Fayetteville/Rogers-Fort Smith DMA picks up more counties) to these stations.  I would think splitting the market up would be committing a figurative seppuku for these stations.

 

That being said, the situation we have here is kind of like (had it been so) the Little Rock DMA once being the Pine Bluff DMA for decades, with a station one day up and pulling out of the city of PB to move entirely to LR.  FSM seems like it's becoming the "Pine Bluff" (or Conway, Hot Springs or Searcy) of the Fayetteville/Fort Smith DMA...but Fort Smith's metro is bigger than any of those latter cities which surround Little Rock.  And the bigger I-49 gets down there, the bigger FSM will get.

 

Still surprised by KNWA's move. But KPOM-TV was always the third banana in that market, anyway, it seemed. It was owned by Griffin Communications, which also owned the Griffin food distributorship (and Griffin's jellies and syrups, as I recall).  They may not have been as savvy about owning media properties as other companies who are more focused on media matters, and that may have been what affected KPOM-TV's (future KNWA-TV's) status back in the day.

[KJW]

Interesting tidbits in this NWA Business Journal article about the 10 story building coming to Pinnacle:

 

 

 

“Pinnacle Hills is approaching a more mature stage for tenants wanting to be in close proximity to shopping, dining, groceries and drug stores, a premium medical facility, the largest convention center in the area, the Malco Cinema and now the new Walmart AMP,” he said. “As Northwest Arkansas moves past the 500,000 mark in population, the entire area, especially Pinnacle Hills, will probably begin to see interest by national and regional dining and shopping choices afforded to larger metropolitan areas.”

...

Only four landowners — Hunt Ventures, Joe Whisenhunt, Chad Hatfield and the LaFrance family — have property in the immediate area, and all four of them know what they’re doing.

“Everyone is well-funded and positioned to build when the time is right,” Ball said. “This is going to be rational, not speculative, development. There’s a long cycle of demand.”

Like George, Ball would not disclose the names of potential tenants, but he did say that moving forward the Pinnacle area would continue to attract companies of the highest caliber, and increasingly companies that do not yet have a presence in Northwest Arkansas.

The end result, Ball predicts, is that in about 10 years the Pauline Whitaker intersection will be completely built out. (MY NOTE: coinciding with I-49 being finished in the whole NWA area.)  Looking at current and future indicators, it all makes sense, Ball said.

The Pinnacle Hills Promenade is essentially full, but the public’s appetite for retail has not yet been satisfied. In terms of offices, as long as Walmart is located here, there will always be a demand for both Class A and Class B space, and companies are now demanding floor plates of 10,000 SF and up.

...
 

As reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Northwest Arkansas only has about 60 percent of the lawyers and accountants and about 83 percent of the health care workers needed for a region of this size. As they and others continue to be recruited to the area, those who espouse the Pinnacle way of life will, in turn, recruit them to west Rogers — a process that’s getting easier by the day.

In the past, it was typical for a mid-level executive to come here, work for Walmart or a supplier, stay for a few years, and then head out for the next opportunity. But that trend has gradually changed.

“The pie is growing,” Ball said. “More and more people want to stay once their tour of duty is over.”  

http://www.nwabusinessjournal.com/13334/pinnacle-matures-poised-for-most-ambitious-building-yet

[KJW]

Remember how NWA hit the 500,000 mark on May 28th?

 

If the math is holding, the metro area went over 501,000 folks as of today at the "24-new-people-per-day" rate, FWIW...

[KJW]

Estimated population of the Northwest Arkansas metro area on Monday, August 11th, 2014 (using the "24 new people per day" calculation): 501,800

[wmr]

Here's a good article about how the Walton Foundation is supporting pedestrian-oriented infill development in NWA cities:

 

http://bettercities.net/article/%E2%80%98sense-place%E2%80%99-key-regional-talent-strategy-21241

 

 

The foundation funded by the Walton family — of Walmart fame — sponsored about 25 people to come to the Congress for the New Urbanism in Buffalo in early June. It was a remarkable group, including mayors, city council members, chamber of commerce officials, and representatives of regional planning commissions, economic development and transportation agencies, and others from four primary cities in Northwest Arkansas. 

The foundation’s purpose is to steer rapidly growing Northwest Arkansas toward becoming a walkable transit-oriented place that is attractive to educated young professionals.

Edited August 8, 2014 by wmr

[Mith242]

Here's a good article about how the Walton Foundation is supporting pedestrian-oriented infill development in NWA cities:

 

http://bettercities.net/article/%E2%80%98sense-place%E2%80%99-key-regional-talent-strategy-21241

Very nice article, thanks for posting.  I do know the city of Fayetteville is going to be making a big push for lots of new trails in south Fayetteville which is being funded by the Walton Foundation.  For a long time I think south Fayetteville was overlooked.  I think we're going to start seeing a big push in development in that part of the city.  I'm really curious to see what that part of the city will look like a decade from now.

[TRB]

I would personally use the trail to Lake Sequoyah to get to work but they need to get the bridge over the White down away the old pump house/baseball complex done. Lots of houses and lots of started housing down 16 with no trail access

[wmr]

I received an interesting phone survey call yesterday which might give some insight into future WFF grants.  The call was asking me my opinion about the local need for a first class private school.  The surveyor asked very specific questions about my feelings toward such a project if Walmart Stores, JB Hunt, or Walton Family Foundation were involved in the funding.

 

I believe the WFF has stated that they are going to focus more energy on education-related initiatives this next round of funding.

 

The call asked questions like "do you agree or disagree that having a first class private school which prepares students for the world's top universities will help major local employers attract and retain the best executive talent in the world?", so it seemed pretty specific toward goals which would directly impact the local Fortune 500.

[KJW]

Hmmm...there are so many charter schools going in, I wonder what they're thinking of?  "Bentonville Country Day School", perhaps?  (And that's not meant as a put down.)

 

Estimated NWA population today: 503,216.

[wmr]

Hmmm...there are so many charter schools going in, I wonder what they're thinking of?  "Bentonville Country Day School", perhaps?  (And that's not meant as a put down.)

 

Estimated NWA population today: 503,216.

 

The surveyor discussed athletic and arts programs, and that it would be a high school.  She mentioned Hass Hall Academy as a school providing a comparable education.  There were questions about what price range I thought would be acceptable, and she mentioned a scholarship program for lower income students as well.

Edited October 9, 2014 by wmr

[bubba72704]

Has anyone heard any rumors about layoffs at Tyson HQ?  I've heard that they've recently cut about 150 people from their marketing department, opting to keep Hillshire's people instead of the people here in NWA.  Have also heard rumors of other rounds of layoffs at HQ as well, however it hasn't been in the news.  Can anyone confirm this?  Obviously this is a pretty significant hit to the economic health of the region if it's true...

[TheyLookUpToMe]

Bubba, call the news tip line and have them look into it. They can reach out for a statement from Tyson

[wmr]

the Urban Land Institute released their growth models for metros all over the U.S. through 2030.  NWA is projected to be one of the fastest growing metros percentage wise.

 

This link allows you to use different scenarios, including high, low or average growth, migration, births, deaths, etc.

 

When using the avg birth and migration patterns, NWA is projected to top 800,000 residents by 2030.  That's amazing.  One of the most significant predictions in this data model is the high number of people from 20-49 expected in NWA.  THAT is a healthy economy poised for lots of new growth for decades into the future.

 

This is an interactive map you can play with for metros all over the country.

 

  http://datatools.urban.org/features/mapping-americas-futures/#map

Edited January 28, 2015 by wmr

[KJW]

Unofficial NWA/FSM combined metro area population as of this Monday: 804,000.

[TRB]

Unofficial NWA/FSM combined metro area population as of this Monday: 804,000.

Put the two together and even with growth in these areas factored in we pass Tulsa and Little Rock and maybe Memphis.

However I feel to maintain those growth rates Ft. Smith needs to land a couple of large scale manufacturing facilities preferably auto and Northwest Arkansas will need another game changer to relocate here or grow from here. NWA could gain smaller manufacturing by firms by supplying the large scale river valley operations.

[KJW]

Put the two together and even with growth in these areas factored in we pass Tulsa and Little Rock and maybe Memphis.

However I feel to maintain those growth rates Ft. Smith needs to land a couple of large scale manufacturing facilities preferably auto and Northwest Arkansas will need another game changer to relocate here or grow from here. NWA could gain smaller manufacturing by firms by supplying the large scale river valley operations.

 

TRB, look at the middle of the "hourglass" (I-29, I-35 at the top, I-49, I-69 (Texas-side) at the bottom.  There is your "game changer" for both NWA and FSM, when it happens.  (And now it's not just a question of "if" but "when"):

 

[KJW]

TRB and WMR,

 

Just looking at this map above again, two things:

 

1.  Though Arthur Stilwell (founder of the Kansas City Southern railway) saw that NWA despite its (partial) topographic challenges was the perfect, shortest route between Kansas City (historically America's second biggest rail shipping center) and the Gulf of Mexico, no one seemed to think the same for passenger and vehicle traffic.  Amazing.  NWA was once seen as an out-of-the-way location for a variety of reasons.  Now, its very location may lead to things far bigger than many could have imagined, and it will be amplified by the fact that the location itself (home to what currently is the smallest metropolitan area with at least 3 Fortune 500 company headquarters, two of them Fortune 75 companies) is becoming a significant destination.

 

2.  There aren't going to be that many more new interstate corridors.  But in NWA's (and FSM's) case, I-49 could be called "the two-in-one highway".  There are essentially two major land shipping lanes that will be opened up when this is finished (and when Texas finishes its side of I-69, which it's furiously working to do at all points in analysis if not yet construction).  That's quite amazing.

 

And I still think the completed I-49 will be "the second Walmart" of NWA, which will be nearly squarely in the middle of the completed "hourglass, two-in-one" corridor(s).

[wmr]

http://www.dexigner.com/news/28105

 

The Walton Family Foundation today unveiled a plan that will elevate the quality of architectural and landscape design in Arkansas' Benton and Washington counties. The new initiative, named the Northwest Arkansas Design Excellence Program, will promote the highest level of design in the development of future public buildings and spaces.

Read more: http://www.dexigner.com/news/28105

[Mith242]

Saw an interesting article in the paper today about seeing more upward growth and development in the area.  Doesn't look like there's any paywall on this one from what I can see.

 

http://www.nwaonline.com/news/2015/sep/06/northwest-arknasas-land-prices-availabi/

 

Edited September 6, 2015 by Mith242