Manchester Development

[Shakman]

I read it as well.  I'm not concerned.

[I miss RVA]

46 minutes ago, 123fakestreet said:

Saw that article. They are both real estate agents, they bought it less than a year ago, and the house isn't their primary residence. They knew exactly what they were doing, and are going to cash out big time when the time comes.  Major oversight by the company that owns the rest of the land that they didn't even attempt to bid on the house when it was on the market last year.

Yep! This couple COULD very well make out like real bandits if they play their cards right. If they're both realtors you'd HAVE to think they're more than smart enough to not get backed into a corner where there are high rise buildings or parking garages or whatever backed right up to the house or yard - and their taxes are through the roof and the property value has sunk as if weighed down by Wile E. Coyote's anvil. THAT would suck! You'd like to think they'd get their pot of gold coins cashed out well before then. 

[plain]

Starting out the new year with more good news. RBS article on the Thurston Spring block being bought.

 

https://richmondbizsense.com/2023/01/04/developer-drops-7m-for-manchester-block/

[I miss RVA]

35 minutes ago, plain said:

Starting out the new year with more good news. RBS article on the Thurston Spring block being bought.

 

https://richmondbizsense.com/2023/01/04/developer-drops-7m-for-manchester-block/

Hefty price tag for the property and a new record when broken down per acre. WOW the land values in Manchester are SKYROCKETING - further indication of just how red hot Manchester is and how it's become that "gotta go there/gotta be there" kind of place that Richmond's been needing. Manchester has been blowing up for several years now and it's probably safe to say she's going full-on nuclear at this point. I'm loving EVERY minute of this!

According to Mike's reporting - construction is slated to begin this summer!

Edited January 4, 2023 by I miss RVA

[BigBobbyG]

Has anyone heard any updates about the Avery Hall buildings? I saw the start of a SUP on the permit portal in October of last year but since then I haven't heard any news. I know this is pessimistic of me but I hope they get started on the project before any more "popular"  support rallies against their inclusion in Manchester.

[Downtowner]

1 hour ago, BigBobbyG said:

Has anyone heard any updates about the Avery Hall buildings? I saw the start of a SUP on the permit portal in October of last year but since then I haven't heard any news. I know this is pessimistic of me but I hope they get started on the project before any more "popular"  support rallies against their inclusion in Manchester.

I’m more worried about the overall market with interest rates going up. I hope this doesn’t get canned due to the interest rates going up. 

[I miss RVA]

2 hours ago, Downtowner said:

I’m more worried about the overall market with interest rates going up. I hope this doesn’t get canned due to the interest rates going up. 

I share your overall market concern with rising interest rates. I tend to think that Avery Hall has deep enough pockets to withstand what's happening at this point. If the rising rates get out of control, that could be a different matter - but for now, I feel pretty confident that a firm with the depth of wallet to lay out $17.4 million to purchase the property can navigate the current and near-future market conditions. Re: projects and interest rates: I'm more concerned about a lot of the local developers getting derailed than the big national folk like Avery Hall. There are tons of smaller projects in the pipeline that have been getting delayed (and are very much still getting delayed) - and I worry about some of those getting tabled to the point that they end up in the circular file. Here's hoping the demand for housing will continue to stay SO hot that developers will still be able to keep projects alive.  What gives me hope is that developments such as the Project Formerly Known as the Admiral got delayed, delayed, delayed... and now - FINALLY - they're on the verge of breaking ground. And Tom Papa - a man whose company has a LOT of irons in the fire on both sides of the river - South Falls II - delayed, delayed, delayed... and according to RBS last month -indications he's ready to move forward and get THAT project underway in the next few months. 

I saw a report (haven't read it yet to digest it) indicating inflation is cooling slightly - if that trend can continue - (and if we don't, God-forbid, slip into a recession) hopefully the interest rates will level off or even be pulled back just a tad - both scenarios would be very good for developers and EXTREMELY good for RVA projects!

Keep the fingers crossed and keep praying!

[Downtowner]

7 hours ago, I miss RVA said:

I share your overall market concern with rising interest rates. I tend to think that Avery Hall has deep enough pockets to withstand what's happening at this point. If the rising rates get out of control, that could be a different matter - but for now, I feel pretty confident that a firm with the depth of wallet to lay out $17.4 million to purchase the property can navigate the current and near-future market conditions. Re: projects and interest rates: I'm more concerned about a lot of the local developers getting derailed than the big national folk like Avery Hall. There are tons of smaller projects in the pipeline that have been getting delayed (and are very much still getting delayed) - and I worry about some of those getting tabled to the point that they end up in the circular file. Here's hoping the demand for housing will continue to stay SO hot that developers will still be able to keep projects alive.  What gives me hope is that developments such as the Project Formerly Known as the Admiral got delayed, delayed, delayed... and now - FINALLY - they're on the verge of breaking ground. And Tom Papa - a man whose company has a LOT of irons in the fire on both sides of the river - South Falls II - delayed, delayed, delayed... and according to RBS last month -indications he's ready to move forward and get THAT project underway in the next few months. 

I saw a report (haven't read it yet to digest it) indicating inflation is cooling slightly - if that trend can continue - (and if we don't, God-forbid, slip into a recession) hopefully the interest rates will level off or even be pulled back just a tad - both scenarios would be very good for developers and EXTREMELY good for RVA projects!

Keep the fingers crossed and keep praying!

It’s a very weird time because on one hand they say there’s not enough housing and then on the other hand developers are now worried to start on a project. 

[I miss RVA]

32 minutes ago, Downtowner said:

It’s a very weird time because on one hand they say there’s not enough housing and then on the other hand developers are now worried to start on a project. 

It is weird - but these are really two very different issues that intersect. Developers are worried about interest rates impacting financing and other costs, plus inflation driving up overall costs. Everyone worries about a recession which brings fears of job losses, which has a cascading effect on potential tenants being able to move into new housing in newly developed areas of any given city, suburb, etc.

Personally, I think my bigger fear is the latter - how might an economic slowdown impact the back end - meaning, the demand side - for housing. What's particularly ironic is that in the past, RVA has traditionally seen growth spurts interms of development happen more robustly in recessions (up to a point - if it's a BIG recession that basically craters the economy, everyone's boats are sailing lower as the tide rolls out to sea...) ... that Richmond has not just boomed but I'd argue exploded in terms of growth over the past decade -- and has seen the construction boom not just take place outside of a recession but for it to be sustained for year after year after year after year for going on about a decade now -- is absolutely and utterly unprecedented in my lifetime for RVA. This is the kind of thing that OTHER cities do. And Richmond's been doing it for a while now.

I won't sit here and say I don't have some nerves and worry about the economic situation - but if the inflation can cool and if the interest rates can settle - I think we are VERY well positioned to keep this rocket of Richmond's boom on its established trajectory - and so far, it's been nothing short of spectacular!

[rjp212]

According to Manchester Alliance’s IG, a rumored grocery store was discussed at the meeting last night.   Anyone have more details? 

[whw53]

@rjp212 thanks for the link - it looks like that was mentioned in relation to the Overnite property. they posted the entire video as part of that IG post. Around 15 minutes a TRP rep  and Markam planning begin talking about development concepts and show some layout concepts.

 

Markam will rezone to TOD-1...red block is existing Overnite facility....Two buildings west of that will be in 7-12 story range...later pahse would tear down Overnite office and position that as a grocery spot ...

Edited January 13, 2023 by whw53

[I miss RVA]

17 minutes ago, whw53 said:

@rjp212 thanks for the link - it looks like that was mentioned in relation to the Overnite property. they posted the entire video as part of that IG post. Around 15 minutes a TRP rep  and Markam planning begin talking about development concepts and show some layout concepts.

 

Markam will rezone to TOD-1...red block is existing Overnite facility....Two buildings west of that will be in 7-12 story range...later pahse would tear down Overnite office and position that as a grocery spot ...

Wow - thanks for the details, @whw53!  Okay - this is a good start - though I'd like to see even MORE INTENSE redevelopment of these blocks. A really creative developer could build a "downtown Manchester" literally from the ground up (including a grocery store). Glad they'll upzone it to TOD-1 - though I'd love to see them go above that (however I can see Manchester Alliance folk basically staining their undergarments if someone proposed upzoning to B-4.  )

There's just SO much potential for this four-square-block part of Manchester -and I just hope and pray to God that it's not wasted by watering down what ends up being developed there.

[Icetera]

47 minutes ago, whw53 said:

@rjp212 thanks for the link - it looks like that was mentioned in relation to the Overnite property. they posted the entire video as part of that IG post. Around 15 minutes a TRP rep  and Markam planning begin talking about development concepts and show some layout concepts.

 

Markam will rezone to TOD-1...red block is existing Overnite facility....Two buildings west of that will be in 7-12 story range...later pahse would tear down Overnite office and position that as a grocery spot ...

Looks like they would just go around the holdout house.

[Hike]

1 hour ago, Icetera said:

Looks like they would just go around the holdout house.

Comments on bizsense have mentioned that it doesn’t always workout for the hold outs, they wait too long, ask too much, etc. and get stuck.  

[I miss RVA]

2 hours ago, Icetera said:

Looks like they would just go around the holdout house.

Yeah - at least for now. Down the road when the developer who's got the jingle to pony up for what could and likely will be a record investment (maybe not per acre but in total bc the sheer amount of land vs what Avery Hall bought on the riverfront) - we'll see if the young couple will ask for a seat at the bargaining table. Methinks they will.

43 minutes ago, Hike said:

Comments on bizsense have mentioned that it doesn’t always workout for the hold outs, they wait too long, ask too much, etc. and get stuck.  

Since they're both realtors and obviously knew EXACTLY the potential gold mine they're sitting atop - hopefully they'll be savvy enough to work out a really sweet deal with whoever is buying and will develop this swath. If they play it right and don't 1.) sell out too early or 2.) hold out too long - they could really make bank on their tiny piece of Manchester's future. I hope they play it smart and use everything they've learned as realtors to make really good, informed decisions. Heck - if they are really in love with the house itself, I'd be willing to bet they'd be able to make more than enough to has the house dug up and moved to the location of their choice - or to work out a deal that includes that in the sale of the property. 

Edited January 13, 2023 by I miss RVA

[rjp212]

Fencing is going up around the Silos! Let the countdown begin. 

[eandslee]

50 minutes ago, rjp212 said:

Fencing is going up around the Silos! Let the countdown begin. 

YES!!!  Finally!!  I thought the demo of this site was to be completed by this past December!  I was getting a little worried. Thanks for the report!

[I miss RVA]

5 hours ago, rjp212 said:

Fencing is going up around the Silos! Let the countdown begin. 

YESSSSSSSS!!!

If anyone happens to be in the area when demo begins and could snap a few pix... it would be worth seeing!

[eandslee]

2 hours ago, I miss RVA said:

YESSSSSSSS!!!

If anyone happens to be in the area when demo begins and could snap a few pix... it would be worth seeing!

I’m interested to see if they will just implode the silos. Not sure they can do it any other way. Now THAT will be something to capture on video (a big deal like the old Dominion tower)! 

[I miss RVA]

21 minutes ago, eandslee said:

I’m interested to see if they will just implode the silos. Not sure they can do it any other way. Now THAT will be something to capture on video (a big deal like the old Dominion tower)! 

That had crossed my mind as well. There will probably be some artifacts -- signage at the like -- that perhaps some of the historical societies -- or even the Valentine Museum -- might want.  If memory serves, some of the Thalhimer's downtown store signage ended up being memorialized somewhere. 

[Icetera]

17 hours ago, eandslee said:

I’m interested to see if they will just implode the silos. Not sure they can do it any other way. Now THAT will be something to capture on video (a big deal like the old Dominion tower)! 

I think the gas left by the grain may make that too dangerous.  The odor is really strong below the silos themselves (so I have heard  ).

https://www.rachelcontracting.com/projects/bunge-grain-elevator-demolition

[Hike]

34 minutes ago, Icetera said:

I think the gas left by the grain may make that too dangerous.  The odor is really strong below the silos themselves (so I have heard  ).

https://www.rachelcontracting.com/projects/bunge-grain-elevator-demolition

First look was, holy smokes Batman they’re coming down! Then changed to, after reading the article, this isn’t Manchester, not our project.

Edited January 19, 2023 by Hike

[eandslee]

Yeah, tricky tricky!  Almost thought the same!

[I miss RVA]

4 hours ago, Icetera said:

I think the gas left by the grain may make that too dangerous.  The odor is really strong below the silos themselves (so I have heard  ).

https://www.rachelcontracting.com/projects/bunge-grain-elevator-demolition

My my my!!! Are we suggesting that the grain left behind has broken down, released methane and has - AHEM - given the Silos a rather (potentially dangerous) case of - "Silo Flatulence" ? 

Edited January 19, 2023 by I miss RVA

[skinsfan]

Have we seen the Hourigan project  from a south facing position yet?