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GRDadof3

Predictions for the coming year

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It's the mooooost wonderful time...of the year! (When people chime in on how their predictions turned out for this year and look ahead to 2016. It's one of the traditions on here that got me started lurking in urban planet, and I hope it continues this year! Im always so appreciative of everyone's insight, creativity, and imagination! 

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On 12/23/2014 at 9:47 AM, GRDadof3 said:

Time for a recap!

 

) Bridge Street will resemble a war zone with all of the projects going on (New Holland, Alabama Ave, etc) - I was right on this one. Although it was more related to street reconstruction. 

) At least one project will FINALLY kick off in the Seward Ave area, at LMD or Fulton - Oops. Not sure what's wrong with that site.

) GVSU and MSU will be in a race to build their new health sciences facility, bookending the medical mile. Foundations going in by year's end 2015. - Nope. But getting closer I think. 

) GVSU will announce a football stadium upgrade so that it doesn't look smaller than Rockford's high school stadium. :) - That wasn't very nice of me. 

) 20 Fulton East will finally break ground, after Brookstone's State Street project starts to get buttoned up - Yup

) A new project announced for Lyon and Ottawa parking lot, including office, residential and retail, as class A and B office occupancy downtown approaches 90%+. Orion opts for this and puts Bob project on hold for a couple of years. - Holy cow, that was a wild card. Yup.

) Tampa signs on as second franchisee of ArtPrize. Artprize attendance in GR actually grows. - Oops.

) A new science center is announced for downtown, next to the Ford Museum on the riverfront. Major funding provided by a foundation not previously involved in Grand Rapids. - One can hope anyway. 

) Project announced for the Ionia property next to Hopcat - Nope. 

) Project announced for the land across from Downtown Market. A "village" of townhouses and mid-rise lofts. - Nope

) Project announced for the Baker furniture factory and Sligh by the Amtrak station, after Klingman's Lofts begins to finish up - Nope.

) Wealthy and Division still looks like little Detroit - Getting better

) Project announced for the Rowe and the post office - Wow. That was a total guess back then.

) Spectrum announces a mid-rise next to McDonald's to accommodate additional 2000 employees. - Nope. 

) Microsoft and MEDC announce major new data center at the old 36th St GM site in Wyoming, gets $20 Million in tax credits, employs 5 people. :) (Microsoft is in a building boom due to its increased cloud/computing) - WOW! I was right about a data center. Wrong spot. Let's see if one of The Big 3 (MS, Google, Facebook) follow suit with the new tax changes.

) Whole Foods and Trader Joes both announce new stores... in Kalamazoo, mainly to see the rage on GR's Facebook fan pages. Was the TJ's not announced yet back then? 

 

Still thinking...

 

I'll think on this a bit and come up with a good list. 

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OK I'll go first. 

Things we know about:

) Twelve Weston, 20 Fulton East and Icon on Bond 2 will all be underway, and fairly vertical by this time next year

) The Hilton Garden Inn - Embassy Suites in Monroe North will FINALLY break ground, either at the end of the 2016 or early 2017, after their new hotel on the Beltline is substantially complete

) The new parking garage behind the arena will move forward, possibly breaking ground

) The big apartment project off of Benson and Michigan will break ground, or at least demo of all the houses will begin

) The project at 234 Market will break ground, stunning everyone by the speed of the project. It will begin the transformation of Market into Grand Rapids' version of the Gulch in Nashville. 

) One of 616's projects in Creston will be underway

) The Venue at the BOB will announce a major national promo partnership

) Carlton Place will start construction

) The two apartment projects North of 196 in Belknap Lookout will be well underway and almost complete

) GVSU will begin construction on its Belknap project

) SIBSCO will unveil plans for the 5/3 Bank building site, with a 28 story tower as its centerpiece

) New Holland Brewing Co will hold its grand opening during ArtPrize. Atwater Brewery will already be open at the Rowe.

) 619 Wealthy will finally begin

) Switch will open its data center first phase to much fanfare

) Fancy renderings will show up for Lyon/Ottawa. Everyone will be impressed.

) The Display Pack building will begin renovations

) The Laker Line will begin construction late in the year

) Several apartment/mixed use projects will quietly die

) Despite a softening in the U.S. economy by 2020, GR will continue to grow at breakneck speed, with population growth jumping to 2%+ a year

 

New stuff (these are just speculation)

) A new mid-rise will be announced for the MSU site, healthcare/health sciences related.

) Whole Foods will finally announce GR in its 2017 expansion plans. Everyone will complain about the location.

) Ikea will announce GR in its 2017/18 expansion plans. Everyone will complain about the location (like, along the South Beltline)

) Meijer will announce moving its IT department to downtown. Steelcase and Amway follow suit.

) Priority Health will announce some major move or expansion

) The Baker Furniture building along Monroe will be unveiled

) A major funding victory will come for the river restoration, and actual excavation work in the river will begin (to much awe).

) Tesla will announce a major West Michigan expansion

) Another large data center operator will open on the 36th Street GM site

) Plans for the 600 block of Bridge Street will be unveiled, with a new mid-scale retail complex as the centerpiece, ala Shops at Roosevelt Collection in Chicago. 

) And I'll keep thinking on it. 

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On 12/23/2015 at 4:25 PM, tSlater said:

I'm going to add in maybe a few additional infill projects proposed along Michigan Ave.

That reminds me, we could see Diamond Place/Proos site start this year. 

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My Predictions (in no particular order of what I am hoping will get done (or not), or have some knowledge that it will get done (or not))

1. 921 Cherry - The four story structure between Grove and Windsor Cottage will break ground.

2. Venue Tower will be postponed due to lack of available parking for residents. I think this will be a long-term gain as it will eventually lead to the tower becoming the original height.

2a. While the tower is a no go, the Venue and B.O.B. expansions will move full steam ahead.

3. Speaking of parking crunch, the parking structure attached to Van Andel Arena will be fast-tracked to reduce burden on parking woes. This will also open up the door for some movement in Arena South.

4. Arena South will take shape. With Arena Place nearing completion and tenants (both residential and commercial) moving in, plans for the Arena 4 parking lot will take shape. Potentially with a smaller building on Oakes next to the "Michigan Hardware Building" (100 Grandville) being built first. It'll be an multi-phased buildout to accomodate the loss of parking.

4a. A proposal for a building on the Rockford Development owned land will surface this year.

5. Twelve Weston won’t happen. Let's face it, it's not time for Class A office space on that corner. The Orion building where Warner is moving will suck the wind (and potential tenants) away from that development. Look on the bright-side, the hole brings wetlands to the city. ;)

6. CWD will announce an ambitious re-skinning of 50 Monroe. They will focus efforts on the Monroe and Ottawa sides, restoring the original facade (hey, if they could do it to the DA Blodgett building, they can do it here). The north and South sides will include windows "where necessary", but will configured with future development in mind.

6a. Still no word about the Yantrasast designed hotel in the parking lot of 50 Monroe. I think this will move forward at some point, but with a different purpose (not a hotel). 

7. MSU will announce an expansion before ever occupying the MSU Research Center. MSU will rent space in a 20+ story, mixed use building (with parking) on one of the lots next to the current Research building. 

8. U of M will not let "little brother" get all the press and will announce a presence downtown, near the site of VAI

9. No more blighted buildings in the core. The Keeler building will be released from the clutches of Azzar and 13(?) Ionia (next to Tannery Row) will finally get a new owner. The AT&T building will still look like a crying shame of it's former glory, but at least it is still being used.

10. Village at Knapp's Crossings and "Breton Village" (the mall, outlots and across Breton) will become THE high-end retail centers in Grand Rapids.

11. The impact of Switch Communications will be felt in Grand Rapids with a high-demand for construction jobs, Grand Rapids construction companies will battle for workers, "importing" workers from other states.

12. The Embassy Suites / Combo hotel project will start construction close to the end of the year along with Icon on Bond II, changing the face of Monroe North.

13. 5/3rd building will be sold and plans for the Calder Plaza park redo will be incorporated into a new development on the parking area north of 5/3rd.

14. The Holiday Inn on Pearl will propose expansion plans for their site on Pearl Street, potentially putting two brands in one location (similar to Monroe North).

I left out a couple of "givens" (in my book) such as 20 E. Fulton (will start soon after the Holidays).

Joe

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CWD will announce a major tennant for 50 Monroe, and come out with renderings for the hotel next door breaking ground in the fall.

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My record for 2015 was pretty bad

*State Street will see a new development near Lafayette.

*Valley City Linen on E. Fulton will announce that it's moving. Will be demolished for a huge mixed-use project.

*Clarke's Liquor store gets bought out. Converted back to a full-grocery.

*Azzar will attempt to move to demolish the Keeler building out of spite.

*The majority of new apartment buildings will be on the west side.

*A private company will institute an inter-city bus surface (Uber Bus) between Grand Rapids, Holland, Grand Haven, and Muskegon. Cities will flip their lid, but the public will flock to it.

*First chain retailer will open on Ionia. Likely a GAP or Banana Republic

*ICCF development goes nowhere for another year.

*East Hills/Eastown/Wealthy St./E.Fulton are made a "special venue zone" for the next Art Prize, in an experiment to evolve the original boundaries.

 

For 2016:

GVSU will buy the Padnos scrap yard on Wealthy . No plans announced

Major renovation of the entire Calder plaza block. The Ford Federal Building will move and will become a mixed-use development.

A big national retailer will open up on Michigan Ave. Something like an Old Navy.

The post office will stay put.

Grand Rapids will become one of the first cities in America to allow drone delivery of food orders restricted to a few hours a day and only within a small zone. Jimmy Johns will be the first.

The Midtown area will become the next hot place to move to being sandwiched between Michigan and E. Fulton

The empty lot on the corner of Abney and Lake Dr. will get an infill building similar to the ones in Eastown. Retail on the first floor, two upper stories.

J&H Auto in East Hills will sell but it will take years to develop because the clean up costs. Will become a default public plaza for several years.

The Downtown Market will buy the empty lot across the street with no plans, but just to prevent the current owner from turning it into a permanent pay parking lot.

The ICCF property at Wealthy and Division will get a project, but will disappoint everyone.

High-speed fiber will come to GR.

Plans for a rival urban market in the N. Monroe area will leak.

GRCC will partner with MSU or UoM. A massive 10 year rebuilding project will be announced.

Skywalk expansion project announced to connect Calder Plaza and points east to the VAI and the Michigan State medical school. Also the Waters building, Ledyard, and future building on the corner of Lyon and Ottawa

Uptown will become a huge satellite Art Prize venue.

West Michigan Grand Prix will return.

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I'll add a few:

Celadon will expand again

A luxury apartment/townhouse project will be announced along the East Beltline

The new 260 acre "Walkerview" project out by I-96 will land a huge national tenant (in addition to the new 375,000 sf FedEx facility) and everyone will be mad that they're locating there. 

More houses will be torn down in EGR for more infill, and the condo tower will still not be built

Meijer Gardens will announce a fund drive for its next big expansion, probably 3 or 4 years out

The 

The new Butterworth Solar Field will be up and operational by the end of the year, and all the Mlive commenters will not stop saying how stupid it is

Bob Grooters will go on a mad building spree of big-white boxes again, with new ones going up along 131 South of town, between GR and Coopersville and I-96 out by Lowell

A big employer will announce a new facility in Monroe North, near the new Icon on Bond II

Celebration Cinemas will finally announce their theater and residential complex plans South of the arena. Theater model will be the first of its kind in West Michigan. A residential mixed-use project will be announced across from Celebration North

As Joe mentioned, the wish list of buildings that people want to see renovated will be whittled down to pretty much nothing. Us old folks who've been following the transformation for over two decades will bore younger people with our tales of how different the city used to be. 

 

 

 

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MDOT entertains 131/Wealthy St solutions.

More mattress stores.

Raising Cane opens a few locations.

The Rapid expands airport service.

Major home building announcements south of 100th st near 131.

New hotel announced near M-6/M-37 junction.

Google Fiber piggybacks Switch facility infrastructure improvements to provide service to area.

And just for kicks:

Drones outlawed in city parks.

 

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On 1/4/2016 at 11:23 PM, arcturus said:

Raising Cane opens a few locations.

Oh I dearly hope this would come to pass, but they haven't even reached Indianapolis yet.

My predictions:
+ No -major- retailers Downtown yet, but a couple more retail stores open on the Division Ave. corridor near Bold Socks and Villa.
+ Dodd's Record Shop on Division sits empty, Lucky's expresses interest in expanding into that space.
+ More developments proposed in the Michigan Ave. Corridor
+ Parking garage in cooperation with Ellis at Division & Library included in plans for redevelopment of the Keeler from its new owner.
+ Anger against gentrification intensifies and results in some feet-on-the-ground protests outside of at least one development.
+ UofM ends up doing nothing in GR, for this year...
+ Icon on Bond II and Monroe North Hotel break ground.
+ Bob Tower shrinks again to 0 floors.  It will be years before anything happens with that spot aside from just a venue.
+ ICCF development continues to go nowhere.
+ 5/3rd site is sold but no plans for any changes occur.
+ No google fiber.  Monopolistic state laws prevent much progress on fiber networks.
+ More residential projects proposed in Monroe North, Heartside, West Side, and State St.  Proposals for projects seem to start flooding in as demand for housing increases and the available housing is eaten up.
+ Drone delivery is allowed but the regulations are too prohibitive for it to really take off beyond a couple businesses.

My predictions sound awfully pessimistic, don't they...
 

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41 minutes ago, tSlater said:

+ No google fiber.  Monopolistic state laws prevent much progress on fiber networks.

I think most of your pessimistic/realistic ones are probably right, but I do have hope for fiber, especially since Lightspeed's GR pilot is already underway.

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3 hours ago, tSlater said:

Oh I dearly hope this would come to pass, but they haven't even reached Indianapolis yet.

My predictions:
+ No -major- retailers Downtown yet, but a couple more retail stores open on the Division Ave. corridor near Bold Socks and Villa.
+ Dodd's Record Shop on Division sits empty, Lucky's expresses interest in expanding into that space.
+ More developments proposed in the Michigan Ave. Corridor
+ Parking garage in cooperation with Ellis at Division & Library included in plans for redevelopment of the Keeler from its new owner.
+ Anger against gentrification intensifies and results in some feet-on-the-ground protests outside of at least one development.
+ UofM ends up doing nothing in GR, for this year...
+ Icon on Bond II and Monroe North Hotel break ground.
+ Bob Tower shrinks again to 0 floors.  It will be years before anything happens with that spot aside from just a venue.
+ ICCF development continues to go nowhere.
+ 5/3rd site is sold but no plans for any changes occur.
+ No google fiber.  Monopolistic state laws prevent much progress on fiber networks.
+ More residential projects proposed in Monroe North, Heartside, West Side, and State St.  Proposals for projects seem to start flooding in as demand for housing increases and the available housing is eaten up.
+ Drone delivery is allowed but the regulations are too prohibitive for it to really take off beyond a couple businesses.

My predictions sound awfully pessimistic, don't they...
 

 

New drone regulations coming out this year will pretty much prohibit anyone from using a drone over any property but their own, or private property where they have specific permission to do so. That will include businesses too. The cost to register your drone commercially with the FAA is expected to skyrocket as well. That pretty much ends the idea of drone deliveries. 

The townhouses at the ICCF project are apparently selling well and they have more buildings in the works, going through permits. But when the mixed-use portion goes up is anyone's guess. They should sell the development rights/entitlements to a private developer. 

 

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On 12/22/2015 at 6:33 AM, GRDadof3 said:

) Whole Foods will finally announce GR in its 2017 expansion plans. Everyone will complain about the location.

) Ikea will announce GR in its 2017/18 expansion plans. Everyone will complain about the location (like, along the South Beltline)

--Concur about Whole Foods.  I predict a location on 28th Street in Cascade, or on East Beltline.

--Disagree that IKEA will expand in GR anytime soon.  But if they do come, I predict they will build off I-196 near Hudsonville or off 131 way south - like in Dorr.

Other predictions...

--I still think Chik-Fil-A will enter the market soon.

--Maybe beyond 2016, but Gaines Township will grow even more, and development will spill further into Caledonia Township.  Retail on Kalamazoo south of 60th will increase, and include a chain hotel or two.  Portions of 68th Steet will be given grass medians and Michigan lefts.  68th will be the new 44th.

--Speaking of chain hotels, we're due for some more to enter our market, and probably will once Switch opens up.  Like Four Points or Radisson (again).  A

--Fast movement on Lyon & Ottawa - I bet we WON'T be disappointed with either the renderings or the final outcome.

--More infill on Plainfield Ave in Creston.

--Uber & Lyft will increase in popularity as parking dries up.

 

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1 hour ago, RegalTDP said:

--Speaking of chain hotels, we're due for some more to enter our market, and probably will once Switch opens up.  Like Four Points or Radisson (again).  A

Grand Rapids has to be the largest market without a flagship hotel brand in it, (i.e. Hilton-Marriott-Raddison) since the Hilton at 28th and Patterson rebranded as a Double Tree.  The "Hilton Garden" being built on the belt line is NOT the same as a Hilton.  I have a feeling these companies are aware of their lack of presence in the area.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the Hilton brand be included in one of the downtown projects, like the ever delayed N. Monroe hotel, or the proposed hotel on the lot next to 50 Monroe which has been slowly and purposefully emptied over the last year.

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8 minutes ago, MJLO said:

Grand Rapids has to be the largest market without a flagship hotel brand in it, (i.e. Hilton-Marriott-Raddison) since the Hilton at 28th and Patterson rebranded as a Double Tree.  The "Hilton Garden" being built on the belt line is NOT the same as a Hilton.  I have a feeling these companies are aware of their lack of presence in the area.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the Hilton brand be included in one of the downtown projects, like the ever delayed N. Monroe hotel, or the proposed hotel on the lot next to 50 Monroe which has been slowly and purposefully emptied over the last year.

The Monroe North hotel is ooing to be half Hilton Garden Inn and half Embassy Suites. It's labeled right on the latest architectural drawings. 

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23 minutes ago, GRDadof3 said:

The Monroe North hotel is ooing to be half Hilton Garden Inn and half Embassy Suites. It's labeled right on the latest architectural drawings. 

Probably yes, but it changes so much you never know what the final plan will be. (If it ever gets past being an empty lot.)

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1 hour ago, MJLO said:

Grand Rapids has to be the largest market without a flagship hotel brand in it, (i.e. Hilton-Marriott-Raddison) since the Hilton at 28th and Patterson rebranded as a Double Tree.  The "Hilton Garden" being built on the belt line is NOT the same as a Hilton.  I have a feeling these companies are aware of their lack of presence in the area.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the Hilton brand be included in one of the downtown projects, like the ever delayed N. Monroe hotel, or the proposed hotel on the lot next to 50 Monroe which has been slowly and purposefully emptied over the last year.

I also predict at least one of those flagship hotels will move somewhere close to the airport.

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On 12/23/2014 at 2:20 PM, jdkacz said:
My out of the box list, some are probably not on the radar for 5 years or ever:
 
- Downtown aquarium along the river in conjunction with the Return the Rapids project
- Parking garage/apartments/retail structure on Cherry to support more growth
- Removal of Heartside Park with a 6-8 story 400 unit market rate apartments
- Shorts satellite brewery in the Purple East building
- Grand Central Market convinces West Coast coffee to move into the abandoned Japanese restaurant next door so they can expand their grocery options
- Chick Fil A enters the market
- Cheesecake Factory takes over the departed Olga’s at RiverTown Mall
- The Rock Wood Fired Pizza expands to the MAC Breton site 
- Grand Rapids is awarded a 4th Division Soccer team (playing at Houseman)
- Jose Babushka’s makes its triumphant return (ok, it already is, but I want to look back with one correct answer)

I got two of those right!

Chick Fil A, Whole Foods make announcements to enter GR. Ikea does not come to GR as we are sandwiched between Detroit's and Chicago's stores.

West Coast Coffee is gone... so there is opportunity for the market to expand.

Olga's is still empty, let's go Cheesecake for 2016!

GRFC announces they have plans to continue to rise up the soccer pyramid.

A new brewery by the West MI Whitecaps. While Atwater is moving downtown, I still feel another satellite brewery will make the plunge to GR. I'm going to go with Griffin Claw this time around.

The long deserted Derby condo project in East gets new life (the non-denominational church on Lake and Croswell has been bulldozed)

The crazy castle project in Grandville does not  get built. (I want an easy one to look back on) 

 

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1 hour ago, jdkacz said:

 

The crazy castle project in Grandville does not  get built. (I want an easy one to look back on) 

 

Not saying I disagree with you on this one, but there has definitely been earth moving equipment at that site recently.  

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1 hour ago, jdkacz said:

I got two of those right!

Chick Fil A, Whole Foods make announcements to enter GR. Ikea does not come to GR as we are sandwiched between Detroit's and Chicago's stores.

West Coast Coffee is gone... so there is opportunity for the market to expand.

Olga's is still empty, let's go Cheesecake for 2016!

GRFC announces they have plans to continue to rise up the soccer pyramid.

A new brewery by the West MI Whitecaps. While Atwater is moving downtown, I still feel another satellite brewery will make the plunge to GR. I'm going to go with Griffin Claw this time around.

The long deserted Derby condo project in East gets new life (the non-denominational church on Lake and Croswell has been bulldozed)

The crazy castle project in Grandville does not  get built. (I want an easy one to look back on) 

 

I definitely think Short's and/or another Detroit brewery could open a location here. I know we joke about new breweries opening all the time but I really think beer tourism is about to explode here. Another one downtown for sure and probably a few more suburban ones. Celadon still has another commercial building going up on Knapp, and that area is primed and underserved (other than Gravity, which isn't a brewery but is trying really hard). FYI, I'm not saying that IS happening, I'm just saying it would make a logical choice. 

EGR doesn't have a brewery yet either. 

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2 hours ago, MJLO said:

Not saying I disagree with you on this one, but there has definitely been earth moving equipment at that site recently.  

Really? Well, I wont be disappointed at all if I am wrong on that one at all.

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